Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
FXUS64 KBRO 271850
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
150 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Can`t say it much
better than the previous forecaster: "Summertime doldrums
continue...". Indeed, seasonably hot (by a degree or two) by day
with only hints of late morning/early afternon sea breeze
convection will be the rule into Tuesday night. And this heat is
just the start (teaser alert); check the long term discussion for
where the already sweltering summer is headed as we move into the
hottest part of the year (July and August).
Big picture wise, a weak shear axis underneath the broad "Canicular"
ridge is causing a slight uptick in convection this afternoon
especially south of the border compared with Sunday; that axis
slides west for Tuesday which will likely reduce coverage
For the rest of this afternoon, expect a continuation of isolated
showers and a few thunderstorms mainly between U.S. 77/IH 69E and
U.S. 281/IH 69C, which will once again fade by late afternoon as dry
air layers above the inversion continue to kill off prolonged growth
in this pulse storm environment. By tonight, skies clear and winds
go calm, allowing for another relative raditional "cooling" night
(for what it`s worth) and morning temperatures will be similar to
today, ranging from 70-low 70s in the rural areas to the mid 70s
elsewhere except along the coast.
For Tuesday, with even lighter winds to begin the first few hours
after sunrise, there remains enough moisture (precipitable water
near 1.75) and no inhibition to keep a very low mention of
precipitation in the usual places at the usual times: Near the
coast in the early morning, shifting inland by/before noon. The
beaches will probably remain rain-free with the "jump" across the
cooler upwelled Gulf waters near the coast - but by mid afternoon
even more dry air mix-in than today will kill off the action around
4 pm or so. Another mainly clear and calm night with identical
temperatures to Monday night/Tuesday morning as pocket of dry air
ahead of southward moving weak shear axis covers the region.
With the calm winds and clear skies, as well as persistence from
today, added patchy fog to parts of the ranchlands, mainly to cover
Hebbronville-Falfurrias where visibility did fall below 1 mile at
times this (Monday) morning.
.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): Through the period; strong
high pressure centered over NM to migrate east-southeast and
become elongated over the northern Gulf. Main impacts for deep
south TX will be greater subsidence aloft and a slowly drying
airmass that will maintain still rather humid, but precipitation-
free, conditions. Because of the drier airmass, high temperatures
across the board will run somewhat above normal and overnight
lows will run a few degrees below values we have seen the past
couple of weeks. Also, will generally see less cloud cover through
much of the extended period due to the subsidence/drier airmass.
.MARINE (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Again today, the boating
and fishing weather, particularly from the Laguna Madre through
the nearshore waters where *any* rain is unlikely, doesn`t get any
better. Seas continue to fall and had reached 2 feet well
offshore, and with broad surface ridge extending into South Texas
expect 10 knot or less winds in the Gulf, and only some afternoon
sea breeze enhancements (15-18 knot gusts) over Laguna Madre.
Literally...smooth sailing for any early morning excursions headed
Wednesday through Monday: A weak pressure gradient over the
northwest Gulf will maintain modest winds/seas through much of the
period. Winds/seas may approach Small Craft Should Exercise
Caution levels Sun-Mon.
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