Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 030540
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1240 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LATEST KBRO SOUNDING INVERSION AT AROUND 2 TO 4KFT
WITH OVERRUNNING FLOW KEEPING A HIGH END MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE WITH CLOUD
DECK REMAINING OVERCAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE BETWEEN 7 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...WEAK SURFACE INVERSION WITH A OVERRUNNING FLOW TO
MAINTAIN A MVFR TO LOWER VFR CLOUD DECK TONIGHT AND MUCH OF
TUESDAY. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE OVC DECK
LOWERING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY TO MVFR WITH NO IFR
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE ON HOW FAR WEST THE MVFR
CIGS MAY DEVELOP WITH HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEPING THE LOWER
DECKS NEAR THE COAST WITH OTHER MODELS LOWERING CIGS WELL INLAND.
CEILING TO GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE OVC DEVELOPING IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT REMAIN NORTH AT LIGHT
LEVELS TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE NOW...WITH AN EFFECTIVE END TO
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES TODAY. TEMPS DROPPED ABOUT TEN
DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING THAT MUCH AND
THEN SOME. BREEZY NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON. UPDATED THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST EARLIER TO REFLECT THE
LATEST TRENDS...AND BLENDED INTO THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
PERIODS.

THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE SHOWS OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 80S...THOUGH THIS MIGHT
BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL SATURATION
AND STABILITY...SUGGESTING THAT CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY WEAK CLEARING...MOSTLY OUT WEST. BY WED
AFTERNOON HOWEVER...THE SUN SHOULD BE IN CONTROL WITH A REBOUND IN
HIGH TEMPS...(SEE BELOW).

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...LARGE SCALE H5 RIDGE WILL
BE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD BY MIDWEEK...WITH SFC HIGH STRETCHING
ACROSS TEXAS. RIDGE WILL REMAIN FIRM THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING DRY AIR IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE REGION. SFC HIGH
FINALLY BEGINS TO DRIFT TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY...OPENING THE DOOR
FOR GULF MOISTURE TO SLOWLY RETURN NORTHWARD. ONCE THE H5 RIDGE
AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST...THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE EFFECTS
OF THE LARGE H5 LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SWLY FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SPARK A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO STARTING SATURDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY REACH THE WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING AROUND
SUNSET...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND CAPPING FURTHER EAST WILL LIMIT
THE ADVANCEMENT ON SATURDAY. A SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY...WITH GOOD DYNAMICS ACROSS THE MEXICO HIGHLANDS...GOOD
MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF...AND WEAKER INVERSION TO THE WEST
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY. ONCE
THE H5 LOW EJECTS TO THE NE...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL DIFFERING ON PLACEMENT
AND TIMING OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE KEPT SMALL CHANCES FOR END OF
FORECAST FOR NOW FOR UNCERTAINTY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...BRINGING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH TUES NIGHT...WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC HIGH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH A SLOW RETURN
OF SELY FLOW. NO WEATHER SYSTEM FORMATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS WEST
TEXAS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THIS PERIOD...SO GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN MODEST...WITH SE WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. THIS WILL
ALLOW SEAS TO HOLD BELOW 3 FEET THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...SHORT TERM/AVIATION

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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