Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42

000
FXUS64 KBRO 011130 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
630 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
UPSTREAM MID LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST
TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY
STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY.
MOISTURE IS ALSO LIMITED AND CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SCARCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE PATTERN ALOFT
INITIALIZES WITH A STRONG MERIDIONAL MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM WEST
TEXAS NORTH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE DAKOTAS AND CANADA. THE
RIDGE SUPPORTS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST DOWN THE
PLAINS INTO NORTH TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. THE CWA IS
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY UNDER
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM AS
THE STRONG RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST OVER THE PLAINS AND DOWNSTREAM
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID TO LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST GULF. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE RANCH LANDS AND
BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO NEAR 80 SOUTH. WINDS WILL VEER TO
EAST TONIGHT AND THEN TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
SLOWLY EAST AND ULTIMATELY AWAY FROM THE REGION. MAY SEE A FEW
STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
WINDS RETURN TO SOUTHEAST...BUT POPS WILL REMAIN SILENT FOR NOW. NO
OTHER ISSUES AT PRESENT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PROGGING A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W
TROUGH DIGGING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND SUPPORTING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM /WORKING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH AS WELL/ WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SFC FEATURE AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE
AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S.

DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REALLY APPEAR AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE PROGRESSIVE
SIDE AS COMPARED TO ECMWF WHICH IS SLOWER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
500MB PATTERN AND THUS BRINGING ANY SFC FEATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
THE CMC IS THE FASTEST MODEL WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE
AREA AND COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS WEDNESDAY. SINCE THE GFS HAS BEEN
SLOWING DOWN AND GETTING CLOSER WITH THE ECMWF WILL BLEND PREVIOUS
WITH GFS/ECMWF AND SHOW A FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS
BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED. TIME SHIFTED BEST POPS INTO THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME CORRESPONDING TO THE FRONTAL
TIMING THROUGH THE AREA. THE INCREASED CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHWEST GULF IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTING 15 TO 20
KT NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET. THE MODERATE GULF WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH WIND DIRECTION VEERING TO SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE
HIGHEST 1/3 WAVE HEIGHTS WILL RUN AROUND 5 FEET THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP
LATE IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT POPS WILL REMAIN SILENT FOR NOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. FLOW WEAKENS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD
KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ONGOING ESPECIALLY THE 20-60NM
WATERS.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/55





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.