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000
FXUS64 KBRO 161837
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
137 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL RECOVERING ACROSS THE RGV AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY...THE
WIND MACHINE IS ON AGAIN THANKS TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PLAINS
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST UNITED
STATES. BY THURSDAY HOWEVER...THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO
RIDGING...AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPILL SOUTH OVER THE
PLAINS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WHILE CLOUD COVER
INCREASES. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ESSENTIALLY BACK TO NORMAL
WITH MID 70S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 80S WEST UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A SOLID...THOUGH ERODING CAP.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
DEW POINTS SURGING WELL INTO THE 60S...LEADING TO CONTINUED CLOUDY
SKIES. WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTH...AND A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. POTENTIAL
CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE PLAINS TOWARD
THE CWA FROM THE WEST MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO THREATEN
RIVER COMMUNITIES IN THE MID AND UPPER VALLEY. REFLECTED ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OVER THE MID AND
UPPER VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED AS SMALLER IMPULSES RACE EASTWARD
ACROSS TEXAS. FRIDAY A WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. WHILE SOME GULF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR MINOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THIS WILL OCCUR AT THE SAME TIME THAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT ACROSS TEXAS...SUPPRESSION VERTICAL
MOTION. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY WILL NEED TO SPARK ALONG THE
COAST IN DEEPER GULF MOISTURE...OR WILL HAVE TO DRIFT IN FROM THE
WEST OFF THE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. HAVE KEPT A LOW END CHANCE FOR
POPS FOR THE WESTERN VALLEY LATE FRIDAY FOR THIS
SCENARIO...OTHERWISE CHANCES REMAIN LOW. THE NEXT MIDLEVEL TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS TEXAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING INSTABILITY
ALOFT. SFC FLOW WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY SATURDAY
MORNING...BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. WITHOUT A
SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY TO FIRE ON...SHOWERS WILL BE
MINIMAL...CONFINED TO THE COAST ON ANY STREAMER FORMATIONS. A
SMALL SHOWER CHANCE MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY...BUT RIDGING ALOFT
WILL BE RETURNING LATE MONDAY AND WILL DOMINATE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTERACTING WITH GULF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO
THE NORTHEAST. WINDS MAY BUMP UP INTO EXERCISE CAUTION TERRITORY
OVER THE GULF TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE MODERATE ON THURSDAY
WITH A FLATTER PRESSURE PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BE
ON THE MOVE SOUTH THURSDAY AND WILL FILTER OVER NORTH TEXAS AND THE
NORTHWEST GULF THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO MODERATE EAST OR
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...REASONABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE EASTER WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN
GULF. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 KNOTS EACH
DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME SLIGHTLY BREEZIER CONDITIONS SATURDAY DUE
TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODERATE WINDS WILL KEEP
WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FEET FOR THE GULF AND PRODUCE A
MODERATE SHOP ON THE LAGUNA. NO ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  65  76  68  78 /  10  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          65  78  68  81 /  10  10  20  30
HARLINGEN            64  80  67  81 /  10  10  20  30
MCALLEN              63  82  68  84 /  10  10  20  30
RIO GRANDE CITY      62  84  68  84 /  10  10  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   67  75  69  77 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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