Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 221127
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
627 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TAFS NEXT 24 HOURS. MID LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...AND A MDT SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WIND TODAY. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY FORM ALONG A WEAK SEA BREEZE
BUT THE IMPACT TO AVIATION WILL BE MINIMAL AND NO MENTION WAS MADE
IN THE TAFS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT DRIER AIR FEEDING INTO THE
CWA TODAY WILL LIMIT ANY AVIATION CONCERNS THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...A PAUSE BETWEEN INFLUXES OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PLACE THE THE CWA IN A BRIEF DRY PERIOD
TODAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH GULF...AND WILL PROVIDE A
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL BE LESS THAN OVERWHELMING
AND THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY AND HOT IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...RANGING FROM THE
MID 90S EAST TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK OUT WEST. LOW
TO MID 90S WILL PREVAIL AT THE WATERFRONT. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES. THE
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE HOT UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A WEAK SEA BREEZE MAY INITIATE TODAY...BUT ONLY
ISOLATED...IF ANY...SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP.

TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RANCH LANDS WILL BE THE NORM...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW TEMPS NEAR
80 ELSEWHERE. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORE MARINE SHOWERS AND A FORECAST PWAT OF TWO
INCHES WILL HERALD MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...EVERY
THING ELSE SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING
WILL STILL SUPPORT 1014 TO 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH
GULF...AND LOCAL WEATHER WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY. GULF HIGH PRESSURE
INTERACTING WITH LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT A
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST
AREAS. DUE TO THE MOISTURE...A SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY INITIATE...
WITH GUIDANCE IN SOME CASES SHOWING A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
RAIN WITH THE SEA BREEZE. OPTED TO STAY WITH THE MAINLY DRY FORECAST
FOR NOW HOWEVER...AS COVERAGE/DURATION OF THE SEA BREEZE EVENT
SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL MEANDER AND WEAKEN THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. KEPT THE DRIER
FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT GOING WITH NO REAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE
AND PWATS BELOW 1.8 INCHES. BY MIDWEEK DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS
APPEAR WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE TROUGH/ERODING SOUTHEAST CONUS HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAKER WITH A WEST MOVING S/W TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF
AND KEEP MOISTURE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER/STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS HIGH WHICH KEEPS THE S/W
TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD AND BRINGING POP CHANCES UP
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. GOT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MDT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL SUPPORT LOW TO MODERATE SEAS OVER THE MARINE AREAS IN THE
SHORT TERM. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WILL NOT
BE OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT AND WAS LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THIS PERIOD WITH LOW TO MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE WINDS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
MONDAY. MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. BRIEF PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION MAY BE
POSSIBLE BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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