Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 190515
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1215 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

The forecast remains of track. The Rex block pattern that has been
highlighted the past few days will continue to hold through early
Tuesday. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to push some
perturbations through Deep South Texas and with the continued weak
overrunning will bring a continued to chance for drizzle, showers
and maybe even a few thunderstorms through early evening. Tuesday,
the Rex block begins to break down with drier conditions and more
zonal flow returning to Deep South Texas.

Temperatures will remain on the cool side through the remainder of
the forecast. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lows 60s
and highs for Tuesday will only reach the mid 60s to low 70s with
plenty of cloud cover remaining.

Beach hazards continue into early Tuesday. A High Rip Current Risk
and High Surf Advisory are in effect into tonight, with an
accompanying Coastal Flood Statement through this evening. This will
lead to narrow beaches through the afternoon, with already narrow
beaches potentially becoming impassable. May need a Coastal Flood
Advisory if observed water levels pop above guidance this afternoon
or tidal run-up reaches the dunes. Some guidance follows with
another round of tidal run-up Tuesday afternoon or evening, but
remains confidence is low at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Latest Model suite remain in good agreement and consistency with the
mid-level trough tracking across the Desert SW/Southern Plains Wed-
Thursday. At the surface, cyclogenesis takes place near the lower
Texas coast Wednesday with the low tracking steadily northeast
Thursday. Flat ridge settles over Texas through the weekend with
fair and seasonal weather in the works. A large synoptic scale
trough moves into the western third of the country Sunday and early
next week which may result in increasing southerly winds

Increasing forcing and lift is expected later Wednesday and more
so wednesday night as low level convergence from the developing
surface low and frontogenesis combines with the approaching mid-
level trough. Boundary layer warm advection and cooling aloft from
the trough will quickly destabilize the atmosphere. Best rain
chances are on tap for Wednesday night with a few stronger
thunderstorms not out of equation. At this time, NBM pops have
been bumped up to 30-50 percent while the GFS is 50-70 and ECMWF
is 50-80 . QPF values are coming in at 0.10-0.50 inches which
would only add to the beneficial rain as of late. The remainder of
the forecast looks dry and fair with the exception to later
Sunday and Monday when southerly winds return possibly becoming
windy across the lower RGV.

Temperatures to remain seasonal with near to slighlty above mid-late
March averages of 80-84 degree.  Another surge of high pressure
settles to our east over the weekend slowing down the warming trend
with the latest model guidance holding temperatures in the 80s with
no 90s showing up until next Monday. Lows look to remain comfortable
also near to slightly above the seasonal normal of 58-64 degree.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Through 06z Thursday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail
throughout the overnight period and into Tuesday morning. There is
the chance for MVFR ceilings to develop after 18z due to increased
marine layer influences for the Gulf of Mexico as winds shift out of
the east. VFR conditions can then return Tuesday night.

Northeast winds 5-12 kts tonight are expected to shift out of the
east between 5-10 kts during the day on Tuesday. These winds will
continue into Tuesday night or for the remainder of the 06z TAF
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Tonight through Tuesday night...Hazardous marine conditions
are anticipated through tonight due to elevated winds and seas
behind a cold front that moved through on Sunday. Winds will
decrease tonight, but seas will remain elevated for the offshore
waters until early Tuesday afternoon. Small Craft advisories are
currently in effect. By Tuesday night favorable conditions will
return.

Wednesday through Monday...Low pressure to develop near the
lower Texas coast later Wednesday tracking northeast across the
western Gulf Thursday. Unsettled weather along with variable SE-E
light winds are expected Wednesday turning  northwest at light to
moderate speeds as the low tracks northeast Thursday. Weak ridge
settles to the east of coastal waters Friday and Weekend with
moderate southeast winds and a moderate sea.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             69  63  73  69 /  10  10  20  30
HARLINGEN               71  59  75  65 /  10   0  20  40
MCALLEN                 71  61  76  68 /  10  10  20  40
RIO GRANDE CITY         69  59  75  65 /  10  10  10  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      68  64  70  68 /  10   0  20  30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     69  61  73  66 /  10   0  20  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451-454-
     455.

      until 1 AM CDT early this morning for TXZ451-454-455.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for
     GMZ130-132-135.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ150-155.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ170-
     175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68-McGinnis
LONG TERM....59-GB
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma


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