977
FXUS64 KBRO 031748
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1248 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Throughout the short term, mid-level ridging gradually builds across
central and northern Mexico, beginning to expand into the Desert
Southwest, with ridging aloft resuming over deep south Texas and the
Rio Grande overnight Friday. At present, radar and satellite display
increased cloud coverage and isolated to scattered showers across
Zapata and western Jim Hogg counties. As mid-level ridging increases
subsidence aloft, this activity is expected to cease tonight,
remaining dry throughout the remainder of Friday. Near average
overnight lows and daytime highs are expected with temperatures
tonight, and Friday night, falling to 70s inland to near 80 degrees
along the Gulf coast and rising into the low to mid 90s Friday
afternoon. Though drying overall, elevated PWAT`s and south-
southeasterly flow will help heat indices rise to a general range of
about 100-107 degrees Friday afternoon, with a moderate (level 2/4)
across most of the middle/lower RGV, coastal counties and eastern
portions of the northern ranchlands while remaining locations
experience a minor (level 1/4) heat risk.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Throughout Sunday night and into Monday, PWAT values begin to hike
back up, to potentially 2.0 inches or greater, as surface high
pressure becomes dominant across the Gulf waters, resulting in
onshore southeasterly winds, as well as northwestward advection of
tropical moisture influxes from a disturbance moving into the Bay of
Campeche. At this time, we expect a low to medium (20-30%) chance of
brief afternoon showers and thunderstorms along the seabreeze
boundary Sunday through Tuesday, mostly confined to near and east of
US-281. Following, dry conditions continue through next Friday as
mid-level ridging persists. Average low and high temperatures
continue into the early parts of next week, rising to the low to mid
90s inland to mid 80s along the coast and falling into the 70s
inland and near 80 degrees across the island counties. As clouds
clear by midweek, high temperatures rise into the mid to upper 90s
(possibly 100 degrees in Zapata County) while similar overnight
temperatures continue, perhaps rising a degree or two. Afternoon
heat indices, generally ranging around 100-105 degrees, and mostly
minor level heat risks last into possibly Tuesday of next week
before moderate levels expands as clouds clear and temperatures rise
with afternoon heat indices of 100-110 degrees possible Wednesday
into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR conditions have returned this afternoon with scattered to
broken skies and south-southeasterly winds sustained around 15-18
knots, gusting to 20-25 knots. This is expected to continue for
the remainder of this afternoon before winds settle down through
sunset to a light southeasterly breeze overnight. Guidance is
inconsistent, therefore low to medium confidence for ceilings
overnight, but am going with broken VFR with the potential of
lowering to MVFR, especially towards dawn, noted in the TEMPO`s.
The highest potential of lower ceilings overnight are at KMFE.
VFR conditions slowly return to all terminals throughout Friday
morning as southeasterly winds pick back up.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Gentle to moderate southeasterly to southerly winds and slight to
moderate (2-4 feet) seas continue throughout the period. There is a
low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday
through Tuesday as southeasterly winds increase moisture across the
Lower Texas coastal waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             78  91  78  91 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN               75  93  76  92 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN                 78  94  78  94 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         76  94  76  93 /   0  10   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      80  86  79  87 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  90  77  90 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65-Irish
LONG TERM....65-Irish
AVIATION...65-Irish