323
FXUS61 KBTV 150810
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
410 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface front will remain draped across our area today and
tonight, leading to additional showers across our region today
and overnight. The front will finally push south of our area on
Thursday, and drier weather will result. The end of the work
week will be warm, with temperatures trending back towards
normal over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Wednesday...Surface front will lift northward
back into our area today, and become stationary across Northern
New York and Vermont. With this surface boundary remaining
anchored across the north country, additional showers are
expected today and tonight. Temperatures will be a bit cooler
today than yesterday with mostly cloudy skies and showery
weather anticipated. Fog that has formed overnight will lift
shortly after sunrise. Only a slight chance for thunder
mentioned in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont, but not
anticipating any strong storms with a lack of surface based
instability present today. Cold front will finally drop south of
our region on Thursday, and chances for showers will diminish.
Warming trend will also begin on Thursday with temperatures
warming into the mid 70s Thursday afternoon, should be a nice
day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Wednesday...Overall trends in model guidance
continue to support drier conditions for the end of the work week
with lingering showers early Thursday night ending through the
overnight, and weak upper level ridging building in for Friday. As
mentioned by the previous forecaster, temperature trends for Friday
continue upward with modeled mean 925mb temps around +16C supporting
highs well into the 70s with some isolated 80s possible in the
deeper valleys. The good news is that humidity won`t be an issue
with dewpoints only in the 50s, so it should be a nice end to the
work week.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Wednesday...The trend towards drier conditions
continues into the weekend and next week with a perusal of ensemble
guidance showing only about 30% of members supporting daily QPF of
greater than 0.1" through the period. Where previously a weak cold
front looked to swing in Friday night into Saturday, now is progged
to weaken and lift north, and a southern stream system which looked
to close off over the eastern seaboard on Monday is now modeled as
an open wave and south of the forecast area. As such, the North
Country and Vermont is generally in a pocket of little to no
precipitation under mainly zonal flow to weak upper level ridging at
times. Have continued to maintain some low chance PoPs through
Saturday, and thereafter trended the forecast drier and warmer with
highs mid/upper 70s possible again by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...It`s still pretty tricky whether or not
we`ll see some BR form overnight. Thus far it has not been very
consistent. Winds light and variable through about 12z. About
15z-16z, surface stationary front strengthens and numerous
showers will begin to develop with ceilings falling to 1000-2500
ft agl and visibilities 3 to 6SM in heavier showers. There
could be some improvement late in the day at KRUT and KMPV to
VFR. Winds will become south to southwest 4 to 8 knots, but
remain northeast at KMSS. Shower activity wanes after 22z.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Neiles