Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 262340
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
740 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and showery conditions are expected for the next couple of days
as a front stalls over the area.  Expect waves of rain showers,
interspersed with some dry spells.  Meanwhile, low clouds will
remain locked in place over southeastern Vermont with some isolated
patchy freezing drizzle possible tonight over higher elevations of
Windsor, Orange, and Rutland Counties.  Snowmelt resulting from the
warm temperatures will result in river rises towards the end of the
week. Cooler conditions are expected for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 705 PM EDT Tuesday...Forecast remains largely on track so
only made minor changes to bring it up to date with current obs.
We will continue to monitor the potential for patchy freezing
drizzle and fog east of the Greens overnight tonight. The icing
threat looks to be mainly confined to elevations at or above
1000 ft elevation. A Special Weather Statement may be hoisted
for parts of the region later this evening.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...The Green Mountains will mark the
delineation tonight between two different types of weather
conditions. Areas east of the Green Mountains will continue to
see onshore flow overnight with persistent low clouds. Within
this area, some patchy drizzle is possible overnight over
southeastern Vermont. Use caution traveling tonight in this area
as some isolated areas may be slick. Best chances for patchy
freezing drizzle are in higher elevations (mainly above 1000 ft)
of western Windsor County, western Orange County, and eastern
Rutland County. Given the warm temps today (pavement temps in
these counties are in the upper 40s to low 50s as of Tue
afternoon), not enough of a concern to warrant an advisory, but
may issue a Special Weather Statement to cover the potential for
some isolated slick areas. With the warm air advection in
place, any areas that maintain a snowpack could see some patchy
fog.

Meanwhile west of the Greens, a front will push into northern New
York tonight, bringing some scattered rain showers and some
breezy overnight winds from the south. Expect gusts overnight
10-20 mph over the northern Adirondacks and the northern
Champlain Valley. With the breezy south winds, tonight`s lows
will be mild in NY and western VT. Showers will come to an end
Wednesday morning over NY, but will linger in Vermont during the
day as the front stalls in the vicinity. Vermont will see
several waves of rain showers move through Wednesday as upper
level waves ride along the front. There will be some dry periods
during the day between waves of rain, so the entire day won`t
be a washout. Wednesday`s temperatures will again be above
normal, especially over NY and the Champlain Valley where
temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 50s. Total rainfall
amounts for Wednesday will be between 0.10 to 0.25 inches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 338 PM EDT Tuesday...We continue to watch the evolution of a
coastal low pressure system that is expected to develop Wednesday
and track through portions of the Northeast Thursday and Thursday
night. Latest guidance favors an eastward shift in its trajectory
resulting in a decrease in precipitation chances, especially west of
the Green Mountains, and subsequent lowering of potential QPF. The
QPF gradient continues to have a southeast-to-northwest presentation
with highest totals expected in far southeastern Vermont. Generally,
0.1-0.33" of liquid is anticipated as this low tracks northeastward.
Continued warm temperatures resulting in snowmelt and runoff from
rainfall will promote river rises with crests peaking west to east
Thursday into Friday. Northern New York rivers should be past their
crests by Thursday while northern/central rivers in Vermont cresting
Thursday and southern/eastern Vermont systems peaking Thursday night
into Friday. See the Hydrology section below for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 338 PM EDT Tuesday...The expected track into Maine and
continued development of the aforementioned low pressure will
promote a strengthening thermal/pressure gradients across the
North Country. Friday winds will increase as a result with
breezy, but dry, conditions expected. With northwesterly flow,
relative temperature advection will be cool with daytime highs
decreasing into the low/mid 40s through the weekend and
overnight lows generally in the 20s to low 30s. Ensembles
continue to linger the longwave trough over eastern Canada and
northeastern US promoting cyclonic flow and some isolated
showers over the weekend. Flow aloft will likely go zonal early
next week shunting showers northward with relative ridging
across the North Country allowing temperatures to warm
marginally. Next precipitation chances appear to be associated
with low pressure developing over the Midwest that may move into
the North Country as early as Monday night/Tuesday. Should
development be more robust, this would slide precipitation
chances more Tuesday/Tuesday night; kept chances in the 30-50%
range Monday night-Tuesday night due to model timing variances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Expect general deterioration of aviation
conditions through the night tonight. MVFR/IFR conditions will
spread into the area from south to north between 00Z and 06Z,
persisting through the end of the TAF period. Predominantly IFR
conditions are expected tonight over KMPV and KRUT, otherwise
most other TAF sites should remain predominantly MVFR during the
overnight hours into Wednesday. Areas of patchy fog and mist
will develop overnight, along with areas of drizzle or patchy
showers. This will result in visibility reductions to 3-6SM,
especially over eastern Vermont where there is the highest
likelihood of fog and drizzle overnight.

Towards 12Z, a front will move into northern NY and bring some
showers with visibilities falling to 3-6SM. The front will move
into Vermont after 14Z, where it will stall and bring several
waves of showers throughout the day Wednesday.

South/southeast winds will generally increase this evening into
the early overnight hours. The exception will be southeastern
Vermont as well as KMSS, which should see light and variable
winds persist at the surface. Periods of LLWS are forecast at
KMSS with winds around 30-40 knots at 2000 ft AGL initially from
the southeast, then becoming south and then southwest.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Temperatures will warm above seasonal averages early this week
with mid/upper 40s continuing through the remainder of the week,
and a couple of periods of rainfall are expected. The
combination of snowmelt and runoff will result in river rises
Wednesday through Friday. Most susceptible rivers will be Otter
Creek, Mad River, Winooski River, and the Au Sable River which
could reach bankfull. The Otter Creek has about a 20% chance of
reaching minor flood stage. Most forecasts favor crests Thursday
into Friday. As such, those with plans around area river
systems and creeks should expect higher than usual flows.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Chai/Duell
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Duell
HYDROLOGY...Boyd


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