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000
FXUS64 KBMX 271935
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
235 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2024

Varying degrees of southerly flow continues to pull warm air over
the region with deep ridging centered over the East Coast. At the
surface, there is some damming along the Appalachians and into
northeast Alabama, but we`re pulling out of the cool season, so
it`s not making much of a noticeable impact on temperatures.
Expect to see highs in the mid 80s again today. However, it is
supporting an enhanced pressure gradient in combination with a
deepening trough over the Central Plains. Winds will be breezy
this afternoon with gusts up to 20 mph. The pattern looks almost
identical tomorrow. Pockets of moisture throughout the
tropospheric column will contribute to some low-level cu and high-
level cirrus, but the more favorable conditions for rain will
remain well to our west further away from the grasp of the ridge.
Mild conditions tonight with lows in the lower to mid 60s followed
by another nice warm-up into the lower to mid 80s by tomorrow
afternoon.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2024

Best chances for rainfall next week will be Monday afternoon and
Monday night. An upper trof over the Plains states on Sunday will
lift towards the Great Lakes region. A trailing upper trof axis
will push into the Central Gulf Coast states Monday through
Tuesday. The forcing associated with the upper trof will be waning
as it approaches Alabama. The NAM and GFS models show the more
robust convection trending southeast towards the better instability
over southern Mississippi, with the northern portion of the line
weakening. This should keep any severe storms over Mississippi,
which lines up with the Day3 SPC convective outlook. The ECMWF
model shows a more amplified and slower trof. Hopefully, some
beneficial rainfall will occur before this system lifts out of
the area on Tuesday. Beyond Tuesday, rainfall chances decrease as
a weak upper ridge builds over the area.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2024

Some low-level cu and high-level cirrus will pass across the area
through the TAF period, but VFR conditions are expected to continue.
A broad region of high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic, and a
strengthening low-pressure system over the Central Plains is
contributing to an enhanced pressure gradient and 15 to 20 kt
wind gusts this afternoon. Winds will remain out of the southeast
decreasing to around 5 to 8 kts overnight.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Southerly low level flow will keep afternoon RH values well above
critical values. No wetting rain through Monday morning, with
increasing rain chances across west Alabama Monday afternoon and
Monday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     60  83  59  84 /   0   0   0  10
Anniston    60  82  59  82 /   0   0   0  10
Birmingham  64  83  62  83 /   0   0   0  20
Tuscaloosa  65  84  62  83 /   0  10   0  40
Calera      64  82  61  82 /   0   0   0  20
Auburn      62  81  61  82 /   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  63  85  61  85 /   0   0   0  10
Troy        63  84  61  85 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....58/rose
AVIATION...86