Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 041138
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
738 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST TODAY
AS DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE OVER
THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GRADUALLY TOWARD THE
COAST AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT AN UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. STORMS ALREADY OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE WILL BE MODERATE INSTABILITY TODAY WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF AND
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE HEATING OF
THE DAY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME STRONGER STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER DOES HAVE THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR TODAY FOR
DUTCHESS...COLUMBIA...LITCHFIELD...BERKSHIRES AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT WITH THE SLIGHT RISK JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MENTIONED IN FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL WARM
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTER CONNECTICUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING ABOUT IT. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD APPROACH DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
HEATING. HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND SHOULD ACTUALLY FALL A BIT
SHORT OF NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.

STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE THREAT OF
STORMS THURSDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AGAIN THURSDAY MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

OVERALL THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH HOWEVER IT WILL VARY IN STRENGTH AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEK
CAUSING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
EXACT LOCATION REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. GUIDANCE REMAINS
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTHEN OF THE LOW
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HAVE
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST DAY AS
ADDIITONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND OR SMALL HAIL. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION WITH BRIEF IFR. HAVE ADDRESSED
THREAT WITH VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONIFIDENCE TO TIME
INDIVIDUALS STORMS AT ANY TAF SITE. MAIN WINDOW FOR STORMS 18Z-23Z.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU EVENING: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. DISTURBANCES IN
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN WEEK ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A BOUNDARY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NOT BEEN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
RAINFALL OR HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY OCCUR. AT THIS TIME HAVE CHANCE
POPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HYDROLOGICAL PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



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