Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 132054
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
455 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH WARM HUMID AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREAS...A SERIES OF FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH BOUTS OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG
AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE MIDWEEK AS IT
TURNS COOLER AND LESS HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS MUCH OF THE
REGION WEST OF I-87. THE SHRA WILL SPREAD OVER REST OF THE FCA BY 7
OR 8 PM...WITH MOST TSTMS OCCURRING FROM ALBANY SOUTH.

SO EXPECT A WARM AND HUMID EVNG WITH SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS. WITH
PWATS AS HIGH AS THEY ARE...HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SHRA/TSTMS. FORTUNATELY WE ARE IN A FAST FLOW THROUGH OUT THE
ATMOS...AND INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD KEEP MOVING ALONG AND NOT LINGER
FOR LONG IN ANY ONE PLACE.

LATER TONIGHT...THE WEAK CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO THE FCA FM THE
NW...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT...STALLING ESE-WSW FM S NEW
ENG INTO PA AS IT BCMS PARALLEL TO THE 500 HPA FLOW. ITS IMPACTS
WILL BE LARGELY A WIND SHIFT AND A SLIGHT DCR IN TD. OVERNIGHT A
BUBBLE SFC HIGH FORMS OVER NYS. -SHRA ACTIVITY WILL END FM NW TO SE
OVERNIGHT..WITH MDL SUITE SUGGESTING SOME DRYING. HWVR MOST OF THIS
IS ALOFT...LLVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN LIGHT SFC FLOW...WITH TD IN
MID TO UPPER 60S...AND AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FORM
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING.

AS THE DEEP CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SPINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST. WITH A CONTINUED MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING OUR
REGION FOR THE NEXT 60 HOURS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CAN CROSS THROUGH
OUR AREA. IT IS STILL UNCLEAR EXACTLY WHEN THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL OCCUR...AS THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT...BUT IT
LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

BEFORE THEN...REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. WITH PWATS REMAINING HIGH...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...AND POTENTIALLY
FLASH FLOODING. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED...SO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT VERY HIGH. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ORGANIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY
AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO CONSIDER ANY
FLOOD WATCHES.

SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES...OTHERWISE WEDNESDAY WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS AND LESS
HUMID AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN.

HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ONCE
AGAIN. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S NORTH AND WEST...UPPER 50S AND
60S SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A MAINLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER...WITH SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE...AND LOW PRESSURE NO CLOSER THAN CAPE HATTERAS AT
ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB EACH
DAY...STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES...AND FINISHING WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S.  LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S...THEN FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN A MILDER
TREND...WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT FROM MAINLY THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON FROM VFR TO MVFR...BEFORE MVFR/IFR FLYING CONDITIONS
PERSIST TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION...SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE THERE COULD BE AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
WITH THE SHOWERS...HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAFS AS SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCES FOR GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. WILL
AMEND TAFS AS NEEDED IF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASES. AS THESE
SHOWERS APPROACH RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES REDUCING FLYING
CONDITIONS TO LOW-END MVFR. HAVE PLACED SHOWERS IN TEMPO GROUPS AT
THE TAF SITES AS COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED.

OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS...A MARINE LAYER AND ACCOMPANYING LOW STRATUS
HAS WORKED ITS WAY NORTH UP THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT
ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT KALB...AND EVEN IFR VISIBILITIES AT KPSF.
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AT KALB AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE PRESENCE OF SHOWERS. WINDS WILL OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND GUSTY AT TIMES...8-14 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 18-14 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION SHORTLY AFTER 00Z LEAVING BEHIND PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER IN VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HELPING TO
CREATE STAGNANT LOW-LEVELS THAT WILL FAVOR MVFR/IFR LOW STRATUS/FOG.
WHILE CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR/MVFR...THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR PERSISTENT IFR CEILINGS WILL BE AT KGFL...KPOU
AND KPSF.

FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING HOURS
MONDAY ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AT KPOU AND KPSF. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY AT 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN TODAY AND TUESDAY.
RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR TWO INCHES...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM. AT THE VERY LEAST...RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS...POOR
DRAINAGE...LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS. IF REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS
TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATION WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY URBAN LOCATIONS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL END
AND COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY HIGH WATER TO
RECEDE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/SNYDER










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