Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 280751
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
351 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary and disturbance will move through our
region today, bringing widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
It will remain hot with increasing humidity. A low pressure system
is then forecast to track from the mid Atlantic states
northeastward to just south of Cape Cod on Friday. This system
could bring some much needed rainfall to parts of the region,
especially south and east of Albany.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
For today...A cold front with several waves of low pressure moving
along it will slide southeast from the Saint Lawrence Valley and
eastern Great Lakes this morning into southeast New York and
central New England by late in the day. The frontal boundary
interacting with the very warm to hot and increasingly humid
airmass across the region will kick off some widely scattered to
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region. They will
be most numerous across the northern half of the fa this
afternoon. MLMUCAPES rise to 1000 to 2000 j/kg this afternoon with
isolated pockets up to 2500 j/kg. While thunderstorms are not
expected to be severe, some may produce heavy downpours as with
little wind flow storms should only move at around 10 to 20 mph.
Highs this afternoon will be in the upper 70s to lower 90s with
dewpoints rising into the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight and Friday, a wave of low pressure will move northeast
from Virgina this evening into the Delmarva region Friday morning
and pass just southeast of the eastern tip of Long Island late
Friday. This feature interacting with the frontal boundary draped
just to our south with bring some rainfall to our region which may
be locally heavy late tonight into Friday. The difficulty at this
time is in determining where the heaviest rain will fall. While
most model guidance has the area mainly south and east of the
greater Capital District the Canadian model would bring the
bullseye across the Capital District into southern Vermont. Where
the heaviest rain does fall, it appears that several inches of
rain is possible and given the current dry conditions for the
most part this would be much needed rainfall. PWATS on Friday
increase to 1.5 to 2+ inches which should further enhance the
potential for heavy rainfall. Lows tonight are expected to be in
the upper 50s to lower 70s with highs on Friday in the 70s to
around 80.

Friday night through Saturday...The precipitation is expected to
taper off Friday evening with dry weather expected from the second
half of Friday night through the day on Saturday as a ridge of
high pressure builds across the region. Lows Friday night are
expected to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s with highs on Saturday in
the mid 70s to mid 80s.

For Saturday night the first half of the night looks dry with
increasing clouds and the possibility of some widely scattered
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm during the second half of the
night as a low pressure system approaches from the Ohio Valley.
Lows Saturday night are expected to range from the mid 50s to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The extended forecast begins with unsettled weather into early next
week, but high pressure will return for New York and New England by
Tuesday with fair and dry weather.

The latest medium range guidance has converged on yet another low
pressure system moving along the frontal boundary south of the
region for Sunday. This sfc cyclone will likely move across PA...and
nrn NJ...south of the I-90 corridor.  Isentropic lift ahead of the
the wave increases for over running rainfall for a change.  The
GFS/ECMWF hints at elevated instability with Showalter values of 0
to -2C.  Pops were kept in the high chc category just in case this
system trends further south again.  Overall...a gray and cooler day
is expected.  The latest GEFS has PWATS 1 to 2 standard deviations
above normal south and east of Albany. Some periods of heavier rain
will be possible.  Total rainfall Sun-Sun night could exceed an inch
again...especially south and east of the Greater Capital Region.
Highs are expected to be below normal on Sunday with mid and upper
70s in the lower elevations...and upper 60s to lower 70s over the
mtns.  Lows Sunday night will vary from mid and upper 50s over the
higher terrain to lower to mid 60s over the valleys.

Monday-Monday night...The cyclone scoots east of New England by
daybreak with just some lingering showers mainly east of the
Taconics associated with the mid and upper level deformation zone.
The 500 hPa trough axis lingers over the fcst area...and in the weak
cyclonic flow some isolated to scattered showers...and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible.  The coverage will possibly be
greater east of the Hudson River Valley.  The GFS has H850 temps in
the +13C to +15C range with lingering clouds.  Highs will generally
be in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the major valleys...and lower to
mid 70s over the mountains.  The showers shrivel up Mon night with
the loss of the diurnal heating...as high pressure builds in from
the Great Lakes Region over NY and New England. Lows will be similar
to the previous night with mid 50s to lower 60s over the fcst area.

Tuesday-Wednesday...We agree with WPC that high pressure is expected
to settled over NY and New England with partly to mostly sunny and
dry weather by TUE.  Temps rebound back to seasonal levels with mid
70s to mid 80s over the fcst area due to the strong subsidence from
the ridge.  Another weak disturbance may approach from the south and
west late WED with an isolated shower/tstm...but the latest ECMWF
continues to have H500 ridging building in over the Northeast with
dry weather persisting.  The ridging aloft coupled with low-level
southwesterly flow may allow H850 temps to get back into the +16C to
+18C range for highs in the mid to upper 80s in the valley
areas...and upper 70s to mid 80s over the hills and mtns.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure is moving south of New York...as a cold front
remains near the Canada-New York border this morning. The cold
front will slowly dip south with a weak disturbance moving along
it during the day and into the evening.

VFR conditions mainly this morning...aside for some brief patchy
MVFR mist near KPSF/KPOU btwn 08Z-11Z. High clouds will increase
from north to south gradually this morning into the afternoon.

Some isold-sct showers will likely form ahead of the front and
a weak disturbance this afternoon. VCSH groups were started in
the 17Z-20z time frame from KALB/KPSF north to KGFL. PROB30 groups
were used in the 20Z/THU to 00Z/FRI time frame for a thunderstorm
with potentially brief MVFR conditions.

VFR conditions will likely return thereafter with SCT-BKN cumulus
and BKN cirrus clouds around this evening. Some showers may creep
close to KPOU after 00Z with the weak front slipping south.

The winds will be calm this morning...and then light from the
south to southwest at 4-8 kts late this morning into the
afternoon. The winds may briefly shift to the west and become
light to calm after 00Z/FRI.

Outlook...
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of
SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak frontal boundary and disturbance will move through our
region today, bringing widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
It will remain hot with increasing humidity. A low pressure system
is then forecast to track from the mid Atlantic states
northeastward to just south of Cape Cod on Friday. This system
could bring some much needed rainfall to parts of the region,
especially south and east of Albany.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 55 percent today,
recover to 85 to 100 percent tonight, and drop to 60 to 75 percent
on Friday.

Winds will be west around 5 mph today, north to northeast around 5
mph tonight and Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Much of the region is currently running 3 to 8 inches below normal
on annual rainfall. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, much of
the area is considered abnormally dry (category D0), and parts of
the Catskills and western New England are within a moderate drought
(category D1).

For today widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected, with the best chance across areas mainly north and west
of the Capital Region. Any rainfall would be rather light and
sparse in coverage.

A more widespread rainfall is possible between late tonight and
Friday, although model guidance continues to be unclear on the
exact timing, amounts and duration of the rain. This rainfall is
much needed, as river and stream flows are below normal across
much of eastern New York and western New England. The best chance
for a soaking rain looks to be across the southeast portion of the
area, from the mid Hudson Valley and Taconics, eastward to the
Berkshires and Litchfield Hills.

Dry weather returns for late Friday night through Saturday, with the
next chance of showers and thunderstorms arriving late Saturday
night into Sunday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...Frugis/11/JPV


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