Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KALY 050639
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF ALBANY. ARCTIC AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER BACK INTO THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM EST...PRECIP HAS FINALLY PUSHED NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA.
SURFACE OBS INDICATING RAIN AT THESE TEMPS...SO WILL ADD MENTION
OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE NEW FEW HOURS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMAL PROFILE ALOFT HAS
COOLED...BUT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. SO IT WILL TAKE A
FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE LOWER LEVELS TO COOL BUT UPSTREAM OBS
INDICATE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN SHORTLY.

IT APPEARS THAT BY DAYBREAK...SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN DUTCHESS CO AND LITCHFIELD
CO...AND GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH SLIGHTLY FURTHER N BUT STILL
WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL
MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET OF 180-200 KT
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE PROVIDING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...THEREFORE ONLY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES CO...AND SE GREENE/SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA COS. SLIGHTLY FURTHER N AND W...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP POSSIBLY AS
CLOSE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A DUSTING
CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THESE AREAS BY DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR WILL BE SEEPING E AND S INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THRUST OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED MIN TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
MOST AREAS...AND MAY NOT HAVE GONE WARM ENOUGH. FOR
NOW...GENERALLY 20-25 ARE FORECAST IN VALLEY AREAS BY
DAYBREAK...WITH TEENS FOR MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT FOR 5 TO
10 ABOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN
WARMER MINS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT...WHERE THE MAIN COOLING MECHANISM THROUGH DAYBREAK MAY BE
WET BULB COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND ENDING IN THE
AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES...GREATEST ACROSS EXTREME SE DUTCHESS CO...AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO. FURTHER N AND W...A COATING TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR AS
FAR N AND W AS SE GREENE AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COS IN NYS...AND
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE CO IN MA...PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER IN SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES. A DUSTING FROM SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO OCCUR INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VT...PARTIALLY DUE TO SOME
RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION/UPSLOPE...COMBINED WITH
SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESSES WITH THE OVERLYING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF TEMP
RISES MAINLY IN VALLEY AREAS THU...WHERE LOWER/MID 20S ARE
EXPECTED...AND MAINLY TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

THU NT...CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
YET AGAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO...WITH SOME TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -10 TO -15 F RANGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME WIND...ESP EARLY...COULD
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS INTO ADVISORY RANGES...MAINLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOALY.

FRI-FRI NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT
WITH COLD TEMPS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 20S IN VALLEYS AND
TEENS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FRI NT SHOULD BE COLD ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WIND AND LATE NIGHT CLOUDS COULD MITIGATE
HOW COLD IT GETS. FOR NOW...EXPECT MAINLY -5 TO 10 ABOVE FOR MOST
AREAS.

SAT...A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY N OF INTERSTATE 90 BY
AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMS COULD OCCUR...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION INTO SOUTHERN VT SAT
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH 30-35 IN
VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT AND OUT TO SEA THURSDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH
AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE PRECIPITATION
STARTED OUT AS RAIN AT KPOU HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE HAS COOLED ENOUGH AND THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS OCCURRED. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE AT KPOU
THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SHIELD IS NOT EXPECT TO IMPACT KGFL AND KALB BUT COULD BE
CLOSE AT KPSF AS THERE SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF TO THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. MVFR-VFR ARE EXPECTED AT KPSF
THIS MORNING WITH PERSIST BY LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KALB AND KGFL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHSN IN THE AFTN.
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

TODAY/S BRIEF WARMUP WILL BE TOO SHORT...AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
WARMTH TOO SMALL TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.