Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 191821
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
121 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer and milder weather returns this afternoon, as a
low pressure system and a warm front over the Midwest and Ohio
Valley bring some rain into the region during the afternoon and
evening hours. Potentially record breaking warmth is expected on
Tuesday and Wednesday with a chance of showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1245 pm, mid and high level moisture continue to increase
from the west per water vapor imagery. A very amplified flow is
over the CONUS with a strong anticyclone in place over the
southwest Atlantic, and a full-latitude trough pushing into the
Intermountain West. A strengthening low level jet is resulting
in isentropic lift which is gradually saturating the dry column
noted on the 12Z KALY sounding. Some light echoes are pushing
across our western forecast area border on KENX/KBGM radars,
with a more extensive/heavier area of rainfall back into western
and central PA. Will continue to ramp up PoPs from west to east
now through 00Z with categorical PoPs nearly area-wide by 00Z.
The moisture plume is impressive with PWATs around 1 inch over
the majority of the forecast area by 00Z. Have increased QPF a
bit over the favored southwesterly flow higher terrain of the
western Mohawk Valley/southern Adirondacks/southern Vermont.
Temperatures aloft above freezing support rain as the dominant
P-type. Some wet bulbing may cool temps a bit with the onset of
the precipitation, and will keep an eye out for icy spots over
the Adirondacks where dewpoints are still in the upper 20s, but
it appears that by the time the steadier rain arrives, a push of
higher dewpoints will greatly limit this threat.

Tonight, chances of rain will diminish south to north, becoming
confined to areas mainly north of the Mohawk Valley after 06Z.
This will occur as low to mid-level winds veer, minimizing
isentropic lift, and with some drier midlevel air arriving. Some
areas of fog or light showers/drizzle cannot be ruled out with
southerly flow allowing for low-level moisture advection to
continue. Temperatures should stay steady or rise somewhat
overnight, solidly in the 40s in most areas by daybreak Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday, the upper level ridge will continue to build into the
region. Lows pressure tracks northeast of MI along the edge of
the upper ridge, as the warm front lifts through the area. Some
scattered showers may linger north of the Mohawk Valley and
Capital Region. Patchy fog will be a problem in the morning with
the snow melt. We will continue to monitor if any hydro
problems start to arise Tuesday and Tuesday night especially in
terms of ice break up and snow melt. Total rainfall will
generally be a half an inch or less over the entire area the
evening, except over the western Mohawk River Valley and
southern Dacks where a half an inch to an inch or so is
possible. Temps soar above normal with H850 temp anomalies 2 to
3 standard deviations above normal on the GEFS. Max temps may
get to record levels on TUE and TUE night in terms of high and
record high mins.

See our Hydro and Climate sections with more details...

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An active weather pattern with above average temperatures are
expected during the long term period.

We begin with a potentially record breaking temperatures on
Wednesday, however, there remains some concern that cloud coverage
may limit the late February sunshine as a blended approach of the
GFS/NAM/ECM was utilized (NAM was the coldest with the 00Z MOS). The
chance for showers will be on the increase from west to east as a
strong cold front approaches and moves through the region.  In fact,
as Showalter Index values drop closer to the lower single digits,
would not be surprised for a rumble of thunder with frontal passage.

Then a large Canadian high pressure will slide in across the Great
Lakes and into the northeast corridor of the conus during Thursday.
This should result in a somewhat dry and seasonable day.  The cold
front may slow down its forward momentum a bit to keep the chance
PoPs for the southern zones through the day.

As this high transverses off the New England coastline Thursday night
into Friday , this cold front returns northward as a warm front as
next storm and potent mid and upper level jet comes out of the
central and southern Plains. This will introduce another round of
showers mainly on Friday, perhaps mixing with snow as low level flow
may remain from the north with the departing high.

Then models diverge a bit Friday night and into the weekend.  The
ECMWF and GGEM are in agreement with another large Canadian high
once again tracking across the Great Lakes into New England with the
GFS much weaker and keeping clouds and the chance for showers in the
forecast.  We will favor the ECMWF and GGEM with a drier forecast
through most of the weekend with an increase in cloud coverage
Sunday and the increase PoPs from west to east.

Temperatures through the long term will average above normal with
precipitation probabilities at or above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A warm front will approach eastern NY and western New England from
the Ohio Valley and the Mid Atlantic Region tonight.  This boundary
will slowly lift north and east of the region tomorrow with periods
of rain and showers ending.

VFR conditions will lower initially to MVFR cigs/vsbys late this
afternoon and early this evening for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF with the
surge of warm advection ahead of the warm front.  The better chance
of IFR cigs/vsbys increases tonight in the rain with snow melt.  All
the sites will likely have a period of cigs/vsbys in the IFR range
with the greatest threat between 05Z-13Z/TUE.  Some spotty LIFR
vsbys are possible overnight.

Conditions will likely improve to MVFR/VFR towards the end of the
TAF cycle between 12Z-18Z/TUE.  Some lingering MVFR/IFR conditions
will persist the longest at KPSF.

LLWS was included at all the TAF sites overnight with the 2kft AGL
winds increasing to 35-45 kts, and the sfc winds decreasing to 10
kts or less.  The LLWS begins at 23Z at KPOU, 00Z at KPSF, and 04Z-
05Z at KGFL/KALB.  The LLWS will diminish towards daybreak.

The sfc winds will be southerly at 10-16 kts this afternoon with
some gusts around 25 kts.  The winds will lighten to less than 10
kts overnight, and then increase from the south to southwest at 7-12
kts late tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Temperatures will start to warm back up today with some
additional rainfall as well. A warm front will bring a few
tenths to a half an inch of rainfall this afternoon into tonight
with the higher amounts northwest of the Capital District.

An additional a tenth to half an inch is possible TUE-TUE night,
again with the higher totals over the northern basins.

Well above normal temperatures are anticipated by Tuesday into
Wednesday, so we will be monitoring for runoff due to snowmelt
and possible ice jam movement.

The latest MMEFS today are indicating river rises with some
minor flooding possible due to snowmelt and rainfall this week,
especially in the Mohawk River basin and Hope in the southern
Adirondacks. Ice jams will likely start moving due to the mild
temperatures and could increase the flood potential in some
areas. However, there is still considerable uncertainty
regarding how much snowmelt occurs. The rainfall will likely be
limited over most of the HSA, except the Mohawk Valley into the
southern Adirondacks.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Warmth is possible TUE into WED.

Feb 20th
The record highs:
KALB 66F set in 1930
KGFL 58F set in 1981
KPOU 63F set in 2016

Feb 21st
The record highs:
KALB 65F set in 1981
KGFL 65F set in 1981
KPOU 67F set in 1953


RECORDS FOR KPOU DATE BACK TO 1949...
HOWEVER...DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JVM/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Thompson
SHORT TERM...JVM/Wasula
LONG TERM...Cebulko/BGM
AVIATION...Wasula
HYDROLOGY...JVM/Wasula
CLIMATE...Wasula



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