Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 250140
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
940 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain dry and partly cloudy through this
evening. Low pressure approaching from the southwest will bring
another bout of cool and damp weather tomorrow and Friday, with
occasional rain. Another brief period of fair weather is
expected Saturday, before more showers return for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A zone of clearing has built into northern parts of the region
through this evening but the leading edge of thicker clouds is
advancing and will spread over our region through the night.
Some southern areas should see some rain by daybreak but based
on current data and trends, just minor adjustments to the
temperature and sky cover grids through tonight. With the
thicker clouds and light southeast winds, raising temperatures a
degree or two in some areas. The previous AFD has a few more
details and is below...

Temperatures have risen into the lower and mid 70s under some high
cirrus clouds, superseding forecast highs for the day. This
beautiful weather should persist through the remainder of the
evening with only a few isolated showers possible across the
Adirondacks.

Tonight, we will see a gradual increase in clouds from south to
north as a low pressure system approaches New York/New England.
Some light rain is expected to approach from the south and west
toward daybreak, moving into southeastern Catskills and Mid-
Hudson Valley regions first then filling into the Greater
Capital District around 10 AM. Lows overnight should remain
mild, in the upper 40s and low 50s. Depending on cloud cover,
some locations could quickly drop after sunset this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A Wind Advisory has been issued the northern Berkshires of
western Massachusetts and the southern Green Mountains of
southern Vermont including Bennington and western Windham
counties....

Thursday, rain should slowly expand north/northeast
across the region during the morning and early afternoon. Expect
periods of rain of varying intensity for the afternoon hours.
Some weak elevated instability could bring a few rumbles of
thunder for areas along and south of the Greater Capital
District late in the afternoon through early Friday morning due
to some elevated instability.

The bigger issue for Thursday will be strong winds across
portions of the southern Greens and Berkshires as a strong low
level jet translates across the region with 40+ KT winds
expected at and above H925. Latest GEFS ensemble indicates the
easterly wind component 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal.
With some relatively dry air expected within the boundary layer
between bands of rain, it is possible that some gusts of 40+
mph may mix down in the afternoon hours in these areas. Have
highlighted these areas with a wind advisory in effect 10 AM to
9 PM Thursday. There is a possibility that this advisory may
need to be expanded to surrounding counties at a later time.

Temperatures may reach the upper 50s to lower 60s before
steadier rain overspreads the region, with temps likely
remaining persistent or falling slightly falling in the
afternoon once more persistent rain arrives and stronger wet
bulb cooling processes commence.

After the initial moisture surge, we will be watching a rather
potent pv-anomaly rounding the base of an increasingly negatively
tilted trough aloft across the eastern CONUS that is forecast
to lift northeast overnight. A surface low should evolve across
the middle Atlantic region and track toward the vicinity of
Boston, MA 09-12Z Friday. So while there may be a break in the
precipitation Thursday evening, showers and/or periods of rain
should fill back in across the region overnight. At this time,
seems locations along and east of the Hudson River are under the
higher probability for rainfall.

Friday appears to be a rather cloudy and soggy day as the
combination of the coastal low and moist cyclonic flow aloft will
keep the threat for wet weather in the forecast. The low
pressure system translates further east which will take the
higher threat of rainfall across western New England through the
day. Highs will range from the upper 50s across the high terrain
to mid 60s across the Mid-Hudson Valley.

Friday night will serve as a transition to drier weather as the
low pushes further off the New England coast and northwesterly
winds advects drier air into the region. A shortwave ridge will
also begin building into New York. This, along with a moist
ground, will allow for at least some patchy fog overnight.
Overnight lows will range from the 40s across the high terrain
to lower 50s for the immediate Capital Region southward along
the Hudson River Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The upcoming holiday weekend looks to be quite active. Global models
are hinting at upper level ridging/subsidence throughout the day on
Saturday heading into early Sunday morning resulting partly cloudy
conditions. An approaching upper level trough will result a low
pressure system over the Great Lakes with a cold front extending
southward on Sunday. This frontal boundary will bring with it a
chance for some showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening.
Highs Saturday and Sunday will climb into the mid 70s in the valley
regions and upper 60s in the higher terrain with lows in most
locations in the low to mid 50s.

Monday through Tuesday... Another closed upper low develops across
the Great Lakes Region with a series of waves transversing through
the cyclonic flow. This will keep the threat of showers and perhaps
a thunderstorm through Tuesday. A frontal boundary looks to move
through the region Monday afternoon/evening with some surface based
instability and decent mid-level thermodynamics. Chance for
thunderstorms will depend greatly on when this boundary moves
through the region. GFS/ECMWF are hinting at another secondary front
moving through the region on Tuesday with a chance for showers yet
again. Temperatures will average for highs in the mid to upper 70s
and overnight lows mainly into the mid 50s.

Wednesday/Thursday...There will be a chance for some lingering
showers on Wednesday as the upper low looks to finally begin to move
northeastward away from the region. High pressure will try to start
to build into the region on Thursday but there is discrepancy
between the GFS and ECMWF on the timing. Highs Wednesday in the mid
70s in valley regions and mid 60s for the higher terrain with lows
in the upper 40s to low 50s. Highs Thursday should trend a few
degrees cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A complex storm system will approach from the Ohio Valley and
the Mid Atlantic Region into tonight. Some rain will move into
the region tomorrow morning ahead of a warm front and low
pressure system near eastern PA and NJ. The low pressure system
will slowly move northeast into New England Thursday night into
Friday.

VFR conditions are expected prior to 09Z/THU at
KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. After a period of scattered high clouds
this evening, clouds will begin to thicken and lower ahead of
the double barrel low pressure system to the south and west
especially towards midnight. Expect midlevel clouds in the 8-10
kft AGL range to move into the TAF sites between 06Z-08Z. Some
warm advection light rain/showers will start to reach KPOU and
locations to the south and west of KALB between 09Z-12Z. The
trends will be for these showers to lift north/northeast through
the late morning into the afternoon with MVFR visibilities and
ceilings possible. A bit uncertain about IFR conditions yet late
Thursday morning and afternoon, but cigs in the 1500-2500 foot
range with visibilities of 3SM to 5SM are possible in the
rain/showers.

The winds will be light from the southeast at 6 kts or less
tonight, but start to increase quickly from the east to
northeast at 8-13 kts Thursday morning at 12-13Z with some
gusts around 20-25 kts at KALB, and around 30 kts at KPSF as a
strong east to southeast low level jet impacts the region.

Some low-level wind shear indicated at KGFL and KPOU starting
at 12Z/13Z THU, as the 2000 foot winds increase in guidance
to 35-40 Kt with the surface winds less than 10 Kt. Additional
LLWS groups may be needed at KALB/KPSF if the surface winds do
not increase quickly as guidance suggests.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...DZ.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...FG.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Other than isolated showers across the Adirondacks this afternoon,
most of the area will remain dry and partly cloudy through this
evening. Low pressure approaching from the southwest will bring
another bout of cool and damp weather tomorrow and Friday, with
occasional rain. Another brief period of fair weather is expected
Saturday, before more showers return for Sunday.

Rainfall amounts of one half inch to one inch are expected from
Thursday through late Friday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Generally dry weather is expected tonight, except for isolated
showers/thunderstorms across the western Adirondacks this
afternoon.

Widespread rainfall is expected across the area Thursday into
Friday as a slow moving low pressure system approaches and moves
across the region. Rainfall amounts of one half inch, to around
an inch are expected.

Fair weather is expected for Saturday, however unsettled weather
returns for the latter part of the holiday weekend through at
least early next week with additional rainfall.

These periods of rain may result in some within bank rises on
area streams and rivers.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The ASOS in Glens Falls at the Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport
will experience outages until communications are fully
restored.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM EDT Thursday for MAZ001.
VT...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM EDT Thursday for VTZ013-014.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/Wasula
NEAR TERM...NAS/JVM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...KL/JVM
LONG TERM...Cebulko/BGM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL/JVM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/JVM
EQUIPMENT...


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