Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 220001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
701 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...A COLD AND DRY NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR TONIGHT.  A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO
THE REGION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL AS WELL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EST...THIS UPDATE WAS TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER BASED ON
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND LOWER THE POPS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN CATSKILLS...WITH THE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES BARELY GETTING INTO THESE AREAS OFF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TEMPS WERE REDONE BASED ON THE
HOURLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER THE AREA. INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE
LOWERED DOWN TO ABOUT 5000 FEET THANKS TO A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE...WHICH HAS CAUSED ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO
DWINDLE DOWN TO JUST LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...MAINLY FOR
AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. HIRES MODELS...SUCH AS OUR LOCAL
WRF AND THE 3KM HRRR...SHOW ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND AFFECT JUST THE FAR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE JUST
A COATING OR LESS...AS ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE.

OUTSIDE OF THIS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
/SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS/. THESE LOW
TEMPS ARE IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING IT/S ONLY MID NOVEMBER...AND MOST
OF THE AREA DOES NOT HAVE A DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A COLD AND DRY START...CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT 500 HPA...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL
BE RAPIDLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS BY THE AFTN HOURS.

WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY...SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA /NORTH OF I-90/...CLOSER
TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO START...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN. IN MANY NORTHERN AREAS...THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP /SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN/...WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO JUST A COLD PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT. FOR SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION...TEMPS ON SAT MAY
RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE FOR
SAT NIGHT...AND PRECIP MAY WIND UP ONLY BEING IN THE FORM OF A
PLAIN COLD RAIN. ALL MEMBERS OF THE 15Z SREF SUGGEST THIS EVENT
WILL BE LIQUID FOR ALBANY...AND EVEN THE 12Z GEFS SHOW A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR MIXED PRECIP AT ALBANY AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MIXED PRECIP WILL BE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT...TACONICS AND THE BERKSHIRES. EVEN IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN...LIGHT QPF WILL PREVENT ICE ACCRETION FROM BEING
MORE THAN JUST A COATING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...WITH JUST A
COATING OF SNOW/SLEET POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AS WELL.

TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE
S-SW AND BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS A LINGERING
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER AROUND DUE TO THE SFC BOUNDARY NEARBY...BUT MOST AREAS
LOOK TO STAY DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE
DAY...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER ON SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WIDESPREAD STEADY RAINFALL WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...AND PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAIN
EVERYWHERE DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES C EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY. A SOLID HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE WHOLE REGION...AS 850 HPA SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
50 KTS OR MORE TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEPT TEMPS MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH.  BEHIND THE RAINFALL...THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING
FOR LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...AS OUR REGION BECOMES FULLY IN THE
STORM/S WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...WHICH IS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES. IN THE
MEANWHILE THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
DAMPEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AS A TROUGH HEADS FOR THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL ORIGINATE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IS MODEL
GUIDANCE.

WE START OUT WITH SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO OCCUR
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING
ABOUT BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS KEEP ITS PRECIPITATION
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH. HAVE RUN WITH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL WHICH MEANS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR SOME
AREAS.

THERE IS MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
WILL HAVE BIG IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AND WHERE AND WHEN A
LOW FORMS AND HOW STRONG IT MAY GET. INDICATIONS ARE A LOW SHOULD
FORM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. HAVE RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SINCE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS SO HIGH.

AS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE FAIR AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

OVERALL GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...WITH THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
BETWEEN 10-15Z/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED
WITH A VCSH FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW TO W AT 4-10 KTS EARLY THIS
EVENING..AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS
OR LESS AFTER 05Z/SAT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KTS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THERE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS






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