Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 022329
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
729 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
MASS WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SOME THIN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING OVER THE REGION AS
CONVECTION IN CANADA CONTINUES TO SPILL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
SOUTHWARD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING S/SE
ACROSS SRN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC. BASED ON CURRENT DATA AND
TRENDS...LITTLE TO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT IF
ANYTHING. THE PREVIOUS AFD HAS A FEW MORE DETAILS ABOUT INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND IS BELOW...

SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL OFF
AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT...BUT SOME U50S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN
DACKS...SRN VT...NRN TACONICS...NRN BERKS AND ERN CATSKILLS WITH
LOWER TO M60S IN MOST OTHER SPOTS. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG WAS
ADDED TO THE FCST IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS...AS WELL AS NEAR
LAKE GEORGE/KGFL...AND PARTS OF SRN VT...AND THE BERKS.

THERE IS THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN
THE ADIRONDACKS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT /3-6 AM/ WITH THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS WE KEPT IN OVER
NRN HAMILTON AND NRN WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...A SHIFT IN AIR MASSES IS BRIEFLY EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT MOVING S/SE ACROSS THE ALY FCST AREA TOMORROW TO CLOSE
THE WORK WEEK. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES...THE SKIES WILL
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM...INITIALLY
MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND THEN EXPANDING TO THESE LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST
IN THE MID PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS DUE TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS /MORE WIDESPREAD U60S TO L70S/ YIELDING
SBCAPES OF 1000-2500 J/KG...WHILE THE GFS HAS SBCAPES IN THE
750-1500 J/KG RANGE OR SO WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE
BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND SHIFT DOWN
STREAM. HENCE...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY 15-20 KTS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND 10-15 KTS LATER IN THE DAY
FURTHER SOUTH. THE INSTABILITY IS MODERATE...BUT THE SHEAR IS
WEAK FOR WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CELLS
OR MAINLY PULSE LIKE CONVECTION COULD FORM WITH DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES OR AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE
FRONT. THE BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ACTUALLY WEST OF THE
FCST AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY ABOUT
5.5-6C/KM OVER THE ALY AREA.

SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS...BUT
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. IF ONE WERE TO
OCCUR IT WOULD BE ISOLD DUE TO THE LIMITED DEEP SHEAR...AND WOULD
LIKELY BE IF A STORM SUSTAINED A TALL ENOUGH UPDRAFT FROM THE
HIGHER CAPE VALUES. THE GFS DOES INDICATE SOME DCAPES VALUES OF
GREATER THAN A 1000 J/KG FROM THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY W/SW.
OVERALL...AGREE GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
ISSUE...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SPC DAY 2 GUIDANCE.
H850 TEMPS STILL IN THE 15C TO 17C RANGE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID AND U80S IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 90F READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN
LITCHFIELD CTY...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS. PWATS ARE
IN THE INCH TO INCH AND TWO THIRDS RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION.
THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

THU NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND
BERKSHIRES...AND NW CT. THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE
IN THE H925-850 LAYER WITH THE WIND VEERING FROM THE NORTH TO THE
EAST. H850 TEMPS LOWER TO 12C TO 14C OVER THE FCST AREA. THE SFC
DEWPTS WILL FALL INTO M40S TO L50S OVER THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE
REGION...WITH LOWER TO M50S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND M50S TO L60S SOUTH AND EAST.  THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
FROM THE N/NW TO S/SE WITH CLOUDS LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE
SRN REACHES OF THE FCST AREA.

FRIDAY...A NICE CLOSE TO THE WORK WEEK TO SET UP FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. A CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM SE QUEBEC
AND NRN MAINE. LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH H850 TEMPS LOWERING TO 11 TO 13C OVER MOST OF
THE FCST AREA. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A SHADE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPT...BUT IT WILL FEEL LESS HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE DAY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AFTER THE CLOUDS BREAK UP.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 75-80F RANGE IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S
TO M70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR...AND
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S WITH A FEW U40S IN THE
SRN DACKS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG MAY FORM...AND
MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST LATER IN TIME.

SATURDAY...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST. A CLOSED
ANTICYCLONE MAY SET UP OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE DUE
TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE...AND THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE SHORT TERM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROVIDE THE DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST LABOR DAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +1 TO +2
STDEV ACCORDING TO THE GEFS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MID LEVEL CAPPING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR ALBANY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE MID
70S...HOWEVER WE WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE THROUGH
LABOR DAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
FRONT WILL TEND TO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT...LEADING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH CHANCE POPS IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...LEAVING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO PERSIST.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
REGION LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES
WELL INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DECENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT. GENERALLY ONLY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPOU...BUT IFR
TO VLIFR FOG EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 06Z AND
13Z. AFTER 13Z/14Z...ALL FOG WILL HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CANADA COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT
THE TAF SITES AFTER 20Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY CALM TONIGHT...AND BECOMING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AT 8 KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KGFL.

OUTLOOK...

THU NT-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR
FRIDAY.

THE RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW
FORMATION LIKELY...AND THEN FALL TO 45-60 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MAXIMUM RH VALUES ONCE AGAIN OF 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION TONIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5-15 MPH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 MPH AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA



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