Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 192350 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
550 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, a low confidence forecast with respect to cold
frontal timing. This particular cold front has already moved thru
much of the area nearly one day sooner than expected. It has
tracked through KGUY and KDHT. Most computer models suggest the
cold front may temporarily move back north into Kansas later
tonight, then surge south again on Tuesday. Have composed the TAFs
with those ideas in mind. Due to low confidence in cold frontal
timing, amendments may become necessary later tonight.

Andrade

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 444 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...

The forecast has shifted from a fire weather approach to perhaps a
very slight relief to the drought conditions beginning Wednesday.
Well, at least we have a reasonable chance for moisture at this
time. Thursday has been showing some consistency with
precipitation that would be measurable, especially the eastern
half of the forecast area where we are now advertising 30 to 50
percent chances. Chances continue into Friday and Saturday as
well. This is somewhat a change from the "norm" recently as these
chances have been consistent for several days now and have not
disappeared as they get into the near-term. Could be a welcoming
change.

Front sagged farther south today than previously forecasted and
caused a complete bust in temperatures to the north, along with
other meteorological values. Front also created enough
convergence in the lower levels where available moisture has given
us a cumulus field across central and northern parts of the
forecast area. There has been some sprinkles reported across some
areas and could continue through early evening for mainly
northern areas. Not much if any accumulation is expected. Front
should retreat back a little tonight, and will make its full surge
tomorrow. Temperatures and winds could potentially vary widely
again tomorrow depending on the frontal passage. Highs will only
get into the 30s Wednesday.

Focus for precipitation will be Wednesday and Thursday due to these
days having the best chance. Wednesday will be our first shot at
precipitation. This day will have good mid-level frontogenesis
along with good isentropic lift. The area with greatest potential
will be far eastern parts of the Panhandles. Lower levels are
going to be cold, but a small warm nose layer with dry air above
will be evident, which could lead to precipitation falling as
sleet to begin the onset of precipitation. Wednesday night gets a
little tricky with freezing rain potential. Left as rain for now
due to low confidence in lower level temperatures. Another
similar setup with mid-level frontogenesis and isentropic lift
will be present Thursday, but Thursday will have a deeper layer of
moisture and hence more precipitable water to work with. As a
result, Thursday could yield more measurable moisture and has the
best chance for precipitation in general for mainly eastern parts
of the Panhandles. Small chance for precipitation Friday night and
Saturday, but a little leery of these chances given the model
disparity in the extended.

Overall, there could be some refinement to precipitation type as we
get closer, but we may finally get some much needed moisture
across parts of the forecast area. However, many areas in the
western half of the forecast area may miss out.

Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Deaf Smith...Oldham...Potter...
     Randall.

OK...None.

&&

$$



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