Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 051747

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1147 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

VFR conditions expected through period with increasing high clouds
overnight. Ceilings should stay between 20k feet and 30k feet for
most part...but can`t rule some mid level 10k to 15k development
during the early morning hours Tuesday especially near KAMA.
Otherwise winds will be veering to the north as a front move
through this evening. Winds will also increase some along and
behind the front.



PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 337 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/

A rather tranquil forecast as we go through the work week with some
light snow possible across the far northeastern Panhandles by mid
week. The big weather highlight of the forecast will be the large
swing in temperatures.

As we go into the day on Monday, we will edge out one day with well
above average temperatures for early December as south to southwest
flow will advect some warmer temperatures with highs ranging from
the lower to mid 60s. This will be followed by a cold front that will
move through the Panhandles late Monday night and clear south out of
the Panhandles by Tuesday morning. In the wake of the cold front,
temperatures will drop to below average. Latest 05/00Z model and
probabilistic data does show an upper level wave moving east from
the Rockies with an embedded elongated vort max can help to induce
some localized ascent. With limited surface and upper level moisture
in- conjunction with limited surface based lift, model trends have
been decreasing QPF associated with this synoptic feature. P-type
with this system will be cold enough for some snow showers in the far
northeastern Panhandles near the axis of the broad upper level
feature as it moves east across western Kansas during the day on

Once this weak system exits the region, a large scale high pressure
system will dive south into the Panhandles advecting in some very
cold temperatures with lows on Wednesday and Thursday night in the
lower to mid teens with highs on Thursday at or below freezing for
most of the Panhandles. As we go towards Friday into the weekend, a
broad surface high pressure system will develop in the southeastern
states helping to reestablish a south to southwesterly flow allowing
temperatures to warm up back to near average.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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