Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 292040
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
340 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge will prevail across the Panhandles through Friday
night allowing for a mostly dry weather pattern across the forecast
area. An upper trough will approach the Panhandles Saturday and
Saturday night with a surface trough over the eastern Plains of New
Mexico or near the Texas and New Mexico state line. Although some
isolated convection will be possible mainly over the eastern Oklahoma
and northeastern/eastern portions of the Texas Panhandles Saturday
night...confidence is low with low level moisture lacking and better
upper level support farther to the north. Will include a slight
chance for now however later shifts may need to readjust if
necessary. The upper trough moves progressively off to the east of
the forecast area Saturday night and Sunday with subsidence expected
late this weekend into early next week.

Drier conditions ahead of the next big vigorous closed upper low
forecast to move to near the Four Corners region...as forecast by the
GFS...late Monday night or across the central Rockies as forecast by
the ECMWF. Differing and flip-flopping solutions by the medium range
models leads to a low confidence forecast for the Monday night
through Tuesday time frame of the extended period. The GFS is more
bullish and agressive with the convection across most of the forecast
area given the farther south track of the closed upper low while the
ECMWF dry-slots the forecast area and keeps the convection east of
the Texas and Oklahoma state line Monday through Tuesday night.
Decided to opt for a compromise solution between the two models and
forecast slight chance to chance POPS along and east of the caprock
Tuesday through Tuesday night with slight chance POPS across most of
the forecast area Monday night. Severe weather will be possible
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening mainly along and off the
caprock where low level moisture and better instability/CAPE and
shear is forecast to be present. Main upper system shifts eastward by
late Tuesday night and Wednesday with subsidence and drier conditions
expected by the middle and end of next week.

Schneider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                49  79  54  82  57 /   0   0  10  10  10
Beaver OK                  47  79  54  82  55 /   0   0  10  10  20
Boise City OK              49  82  53  82  53 /   0   5  10  10  10
Borger TX                  52  81  57  83  59 /   0   0  10  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              49  83  54  83  57 /   0   0  10  10   5
Canyon TX                  48  80  54  82  57 /   0   0  10  10   5
Clarendon TX               49  77  53  81  56 /   0   0   5  10  10
Dalhart TX                 49  82  54  83  54 /   0   5  10  10  10
Guymon OK                  48  82  56  84  56 /   0   0  10  10  10
Hereford TX                48  80  53  82  57 /   0   0  10  10   5
Lipscomb TX                47  77  54  80  57 /   0   0  10  10  20
Pampa TX                   49  77  54  80  58 /   0   0  10  10  10
Shamrock TX                49  76  53  81  57 /   0   0   5  10  10
Wellington TX              50  77  54  82  57 /   0   0   5  10   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

7/11



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