Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 291230
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
730 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 10 AM THIS MORNING. ALSO REMOVED
SEVERE WORDING FOR THIS MORNING AS WE ARE SEEING WEAK RIDGING ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. SEVERE WEATHER WILL STILL BE A POSSIBILITY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

AVIATION...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NORTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE MORNING BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE PRESENT TODAY WITH LOW PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE THIS EVENING
WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO
BE IMPACTED WILL BE KDHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TOMORROW EVENING BRINGING AND INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY LOW STRATUS.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PLENTY OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WHICH IS HELPING TO PROVIDE
LOW LEVEL LIFT TO THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO IN THE
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SHORT WAVE WILL ALSO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIR MASS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUT THE PANHANDLES IN A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  HAVE INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST FOR ANY MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION THAT MIGHT MAKE INTO OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS.

UPPER RIDGE THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD BE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE PANHANDLES
WILL AGAIN BE UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL NOT INSERT ANY
PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST FOR NOW UNDER THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS THERE MAY BE A CAP ALOFT WHICH MAY KEEP CONVECTION DOWN.
ALSO...MOISTURE MAY BE IN QUESTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
AND THEN THEY SHOULD STAY NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL ON THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS FORECAST.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/08




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