Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 300552
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1252 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 06z TAFs...
Mid-level closed low tracking over Texas Panhandle at this time.
Tight pressure gradient will cause northwest surface winds to gust
above 40 kt during most of the daylight hours on Sunday.  Airport
Weather warning for gusts above 40 kt will likely be issued for
Amarillo area airports before 7 AM.  Poor flying weather also due
to IFR ceilings and visibilities in snow and blowing snow.
Fairly abrupt improvement expected late this afternoon with
ceilings lifting to VFR.  Surface winds will diminish early
Sunday evening.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 652 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...
IFR to LIFR conditions will likely prevail for the next 12 hours
of the TAF Period. Strong and gusty north to northwest winds are
also anticipated, which will likely lead to areas of blowing and
drifting snow at KGUY, KDHT, and possibly KAMA. Conditions will
start to improve after 15Z and all cigs should be VFR by 21Z.

Weber

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A closed upper low will track east out of the eastern Plains of
New Mexico this evening into the Texas South Plains and then
northward into the northeast Texas Panhandle late tonight and then
into Kansas by Sunday morning. Rain or rain mixed with snow will
prevail across the southeastern half of the forecast area with
snow across the northwest half of the Panhandles. The rain mixed
with snow may change over to snow across portions of the eastern
Panhandles between 06Z and 12Z Sunday as the upper low lifts
northeast and the cold sector north and west of the departing
closed upper low moves across this area. Wrap around wintry
precipitation will linger into Sunday and will end from southwest
to northeast by Sunday afternoon. Heaviest snowfall amounts will
occur across the northwest quadrant of the forecast area where as
much as 6 to 12 inches will be possible. Expect a tight gradient
between the highest snowfall amounts northwest to lesser snowfall
amounts across the remainder of the forecast area. Snow will
likely melt first with temps above freezing, but as temps fall
below freezing this evening and overnight tonight, expect snow to
begin accumulating across the remainder of the Panhandles.

Drier northwesterly flow aloft early next week will prevail
allowing for clearing skies although temps will be dependent on
snow cover and will pose a challenge early next week. Shortwave
trough to approach the Panhandles by late Tuesday or the middle of
next week which will allow for increasing chances for mainly
showers although isolated thunderstorms certainly not out of the
question. This upper trough will be fairly progressive and should
quickly move out of the forecast area by Thursday. Cold front to
push south across the Panhandles Tuesday and Tuesday night
allowing for cooler conditions for the middle of next week. Drier
and more seasonable conditions expected for late next week as a
broad upper ridge builds across the western states and Rockies.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Deaf Smith...Gray...
     Hansford...Hemphill...Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...
     Ochiltree...Oldham...Potter...Randall...Roberts...Wheeler.

     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Dallam...Hartley...Sherman.

OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Beaver.

     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
     following zones: Cimarron...Texas.


&&

$$

03/16


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