Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 201959
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
259 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Weak upper level disturbance over the eastern Panhandles will
continue to move away tonight. A few showers will still be possible
in its wake this evening, so have kept some slight chances in the
far eastern Panhandles.

Vigorous upper level short wave trough over the northwest U.S. will
continue to plow southeastward and its leading edge will be into
western Oklahoma by late Saturday afternoon. At this point, it looks
like all of the dynamics and moisture associated with this upper
level disturbance will be to our east by the time showers and
thunderstorms develop in the late afternoon. But, will continue to
mention a low chance of showers and thunderstorms in the far
southeast CWA just in case the system is a little slower. A cold
front will push through the region Saturday afternoon and early
evening bringing north winds in the 20 to 30 mph range with higher
gusts.  Temperatures may fall into the lower to mid 30s by early
Sunday morning causing another round of frost in the western and
central Panhandles.

A large upper trough will get carved out across the eastern U.S.
through mid week next week. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will
build across the western U.S. This will put the Panhandles in a
northwest flow aloft which will tend to bring an occasional cold
front through.

A strong upper level short wave is expected to dive southward out of
Canada and into the central U.S. by late in the week.  This should
open the door for much colder air to spill southward into our area.
Some models want to try to squeeze out some rain and snow across our
northern areas Thursday night, but this is the fist time that some
of the models have agreed on this colder scenario, so things could
change over the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                55  72  39  67  44 /   5   5   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  57  73  37  72  43 /  20   5   0   0   0
Boise City OK              49  63  33  68  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  59  74  41  71  45 /   5   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              55  73  37  71  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  54  73  39  68  43 /   5   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               57  78  44  70  46 /   5   5   5   0   0
Dalhart TX                 51  69  34  70  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  55  68  36  71  43 /   5   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                54  75  37  69  42 /   0   5   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                61  76  41  71  45 /  20  10   5   0   0
Pampa TX                   58  74  41  69  45 /   5   5   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                58  79  44  71  45 /  10  20  10   0   0
Wellington TX              59  83  44  72  45 /   5  20  10   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

14/15



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