Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 171109

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
609 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

VFR conditions to prevail for the majority of the TAF cycle. The
main aviation concern will be with the potential for convection at
the terminals this afternoon and into the overnight hours. Have
retained the PROB30 group from the previous TAF issuance with
slight time adjustments. Should convection impact a terminal
directly expect lower flight categories.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 406 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

Conditions will be dry for the early part of today, with increased
thunderstorm coverage late this afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorms have the potential to be severe at steep 700-500 mb
lapse rates will overspread the Panhandles amidst strong heating.
CAPE values on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg combined with about
30kts of deep layer shear will support organized convection. Hail
and winds will be the primary threat. Hi-res models suggest that
things may start off as discrete cells then become more of an MCS
where wind will become more of the threat. Additional things to
note for tonight, a shortwave trof embedded in the northwest flow
is expected to move through late in the evening allowing for
additional forcing to keep convective activity through the night.
A low level jet will set up with the lee side trof, increasing the
low level helicity values. This will not rule out the possibility
for a tornado threat. The threat will remain low, but still not
to be discounted.

Northwest flow will continue Friday into Saturday, and
thunderstorm chances will continue across the Panhandles. PWAT
values will be pushing the 1.50" range on Friday and thusly heavy
rain and possible flooding concerns could be possible with storms.
WPC has the Panhandles in a slight risk for excessive rainfall on
Friday. Saturday will be more isolated in nature as storms as high
pressure attempts to build over the area.

As we move into Sunday and the work week, southwest flow with
increased moisture is to be expected. This will bring back a
chance of thunderstorms each day, but with the increased moisture
will also bring the concerns for further heavy rain and flooding



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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