Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 290224
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1024 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold high pressure will build across the region tonight
through Wednesday night with generally dry and cooler conditions
expected. The next system will move in from the southwest late
on Thursday with generally rain showers into the weekend but
occasional snow showers Thursday night and Friday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1015 pm update...
Flood watch cancelled. See hydro discussion below. Clouds
hanging tough as the rain has moved out of the area to the east.
Northerly flow still moist with some drizzle and low clouds as
temperatures fall into the 30s. With the moist air low
temperatures will fall mostly to 30 to 35. Adjusted mins up a
tad. Minor other changes.

315 pm update...

Main concerns in the near term remain focused around the ongoing
rain showers expected to end this evening over the Catskills and
ne PA...the potential for patchy fog this evening...and then
the onset of a cooler and drier air mass tonight through
tomorrow night.

Surface low and nearly co-located upper trough moving ewd
through the Delmarva peninsula late this afternoon and will
continue to track to the east tonight. Weak forcing and deep
moisture associated with the system continues to produce an area
of rain showers east of I-81 and south of I-88. Rainfall amounts
this evening will range from a tenth to a quarter of an
inch...especially in the Poconos and srn Catskills.

There will be patchy fog lingering this evening behind the rain
and ahead of the cold dry air pushing in from the north.
Visibilities may drop to a half mile or less at times this
evening.

Temperatures will drop slowly from north to south as the front
moves in. Overnight lows will fall into the 30s tonight.
Tomorrow the cold air mass associated with an area of high
pressure to the north will push in and only allow temperatures
to rise into the 40s. Cloud cover will be thick in the morning
but clear off later in the day and into the evening with quiet
weather expected. Lows Wed night will fall into the 20s and
lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be retreating to the east on Thursday with
increasing clouds through the afternoon. Temperatures will still
be seasonably mild in the 40s. Low pressure will then form over
the Southern Plains states and move through the Ohio Valley to
off the East Coast on Thursday night. We`re expecting
precipitation to break out ahead of the preceding warm front by
late Thursday evening. Models suggest the atmosphere will be
cold enough for precipitation to start off as snow, or a wintry
mix, especially over the higher elevations and most of our
counties in East Central NY and NEPA. Several hours of
precipitation could bring a few inches of wet snow and sleet to
parts of the area. Surge of warm air is likely to change
precipitation over to rain in all areas during the day on
Friday, but colder air sneaking in at the surface late Friday
night is hinting at yet another phase change toward freezing
rain, or sleet at higher elevations as the precipitation winds
down.

Trimmed temperatures in the mountains of the W. Catskills on
Friday, otherwise blended model guidance was accepted.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ECMWF/GFS and assorted ensembles then suggest a break in action
over the weekend with high pressure building across the region.
Next system looks to be a fairly deep low pressure area
approaching next Tuesday which may have a deeper conveyor of
moist south-southeasterly flow that would be able to tap into
more favorable environments for rain. Will have to be vigilant
at watching the trends of this system as time goes on.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A northwest flow with abundant low level moisture will continue
over the terminals through mid morning Wednesday. Flight
category will generally range in the alternate required/IFR
range through 12Z-15Z with KITH/KBGM near alternate minimum
conditions through daybreak. Conditions will improve to VFR by
mid morning with ceilings around 4k FT.

Northerly winds around 5-10 knots increasing from the northwest
Wednesday morning at 10-12 knots with gusts around 20 knots.

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR.

Thursday night through Saturday...Restrictions likely in
showers, especially Thursday night through Friday night.

Saturday night/Sunday...Primarily VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1015 PM Tuesday update...
Flood watch has been cancelled. Headwaters have slowed with
plenty of room for minor additional rises. The light rain has
exited to the east. Temperatures are falling into the 30s to
slow the snowmelt. No flooding expected and points we were
worried about have a foot plus before flood stage above the
forecasts just issued. Next two days dry so rivers will fall.

245 PM EDT Tuesday UPDATE...Minor flood threat diminishing in
the basins as cooler than expected temperatures, and nominal
rainfall have meant a slower than expected melt off the last few
days...especially for the main channel river flows. Smaller
streams and creeks may still be running quite well around the
area, but we have heard of no water issues, or concerns. Will
let the Flood Watch stand for now until we`re sure to get past
the expected crest times later tonight and Wednesday, but the
risk of river flooding looks minimal and will be mainly over on
Wednesday.

Attention then turns to later this week, and the first part of
next week where two additional weather systems could bring some
significant precipitation. The first one on Friday may have a
portion fall as snow, or sleet, thus reducing a flood threat,
but early next week looks to be milder and fairly wet. Will
address potential for renewed flood risks, if any, in a couple
days.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/TAC
NEAR TERM...BJT/MDP/TAC
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...RRM
HYDROLOGY...TAC/JAB


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