Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 291444
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
944 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTH WIND WILL TEMPORARILY BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET FRIDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS SENDING WIND
CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
0940 AM UPDATE...SOME RETURNS ARE VISIBLE ON RADAR OVER WESTERN NY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM...HOWEVER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS PRECIP IS REACHING THE
GROUND. TIMING FOR ARRIVAL OF SNOW LATER TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD
BUT DID TWEAK DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS AND QPF FOR THIS AFTERNOON JUST A
NUDGE AS WE DON`T EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION BEFORE 0Z. ALSO MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING TEMPS AND SKY COVER BASED ON
LATEST OBS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UNDER LARGE COLD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR RUTLAND VT
BUT STRETCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS 10 BELOW AGAIN. WITH INCREASING
WINDS TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE AND RISE TO AROUND 30 THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDY SKIES
IN BUT NOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MID DECK WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SNOWSTORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

SFC LOW OVER ILLINOIS WILL MOVE NE ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS IS A DEVELOPING BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IN
MICHIGAN. WITH ALL THE COLD AIR PRECIP WILL BE SNOW. SNOW MOVES
INTO THE WRN AND NRN COUNTIES LATE AFTN. THIS EVE THE SNOW WILL
SPREAD QUICKLY ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH
S WINDS OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL OCCUR IN THE TUG HILL PLATEAU
INCREASING THE AMOUNTS. MODELS PICK UP ON THIS WITH QPF BULLSEYES.
QPF ALSO BETTER IN NORTHERN CWA WITH BETTER LIFT AND CONVERGENCE.
LIFT THROUGH A DEEP SATURATED LAYER AND A 3K FT DENDRITE ZONE. THE
LOW DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
THE NW AND STARTING THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE. ARCTIC AIR RETURNS
QUICKLY FRIDAY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
FRIDAY. MODERATE SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND CREATE DRIFTING
AND BLOWING SNOW.

WITH A NW LL FLOW FRIDAY LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ACROSS THE USUAL
AREAS OF CENTRAL NY. CAA WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTN. AT THE SAME TIME THE INVERSION AND DENDRITE ZONE LOWER.
MULTI BAND LES COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOW OF 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES OF LES FRIDAY. IN ADDITION WIND GUSTS TO 30
WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING. FURTHER SOUTH AMOUNTS LESS 1 TO 3
INCHES TOTAL IN NE PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY.

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT WILL WEAKEN AS THE
DENDRITE ZONE DISAPPEARS WITH THE ARCTIC AIR AND A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH WINDS STILL 10 TO 20 MPH FRI NGT WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES AND MAYBE WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

SAT EVE THE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKENS THE
WINDS. A WEAK FRONT PASSES SE WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
NY. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SAT TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO TEENS THEN FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SAT NIGHT.
WITH LESS WIND WIND CHILLS SHOULD BE ABOVE CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATED AT 3 AM... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY POSSIBLY TRIGGERING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NY STATE. THE AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT IS QUITE
COLD AND WILL REINFORCE THE COLD PATTERN... WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

THE MAIN QUESTION WITH THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
TRACK AND IMPACT OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL
SPREAD WITH THIS STORM. THE CANADIAN MODEL BRINGS THE LOW FAR
ENOUGH NORTH FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO OUR AREA. THE GFS IS
FARTHER SOUTH AND ONLY GRAZES OUR AREA... WHILE THE ECMWF IS EVEN
A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GFS AND WOULD HAVE NO IMPACT. BASED ON THIS
FEEL THAT CHC POPS IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE LOOK GOOD FOR
CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNLESS THE
LOW MOVES MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN ANY MODEL SOLUTION... SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL CONTINUE VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY
BARELY GETTING INTO THE TEENS IN MANY PLACES. WILL CONTINUE THE
HPC-BASED FORECAST OF WELL BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT... THEN YET
ANOTHER DAY OF COLD CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. NO REAL BREAK TO
THE COLD WEATHER PATTERN IS IN SIGHT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATED AT 630 AM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS AND CIGS AFTER 22Z. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...OCNL RESTRICTIONS (MVFR/IFR) IN SNOW SHWRS.

FRI NGT...PSBL RESTRICTIONS (MVFR/IFR) IN SNOW SHWRS...SPCLY IN
THE EVE.

SAT...SAT NGT...AND MOST OF SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT AND MON...PSBL RESTRICTIONS (MVFR/IFR) IN SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-016>018-036-037-044>046.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...PCF/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MLJ/MSE
AVIATION...MSE





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