Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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176
FXUS61 KBGM 300016
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
816 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE EARLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS RAIN BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
RADARS SHOW BULK OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING EAST ALONG THE TWIN TIERS
OF NY AND PA AT THIS TIME WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS FARTHER
NORTH AND SOUTH. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WERE BEING SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT WAS PRESENTLY RIGHT OVER NY AND PA. THIS
WAVE WILL TRACK EAST AND REACH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS IT WEAKENS.
THEREFORE WE HAVE RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG
THE TWIN TIERS AND FINGER LAKES BY 3-4Z WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE HANGING ON THE LONGEST IN THE CATSKILLS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY FOR THE NIGHT WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE ONLY IN FAR NORTH CENTRAL NY. REST OF
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. MINIMUMS WILL BE FROM
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING S/W EARLY ON
SATURDAY AND MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON THE REGION FROM THE SW. THE
PRESENCE OF THE WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACT TO KEEP
WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CLEAR ALL THE CLOUDS OUT. EVEN
STILL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

BECOMING UNSETTLED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA
WITH RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, EXPECT INITIAL
WAVE OF RAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH WAA / OVERRUNNING TO MOVE IN SW
TO NE AFTER 3Z. RAIN LOOKS TO BE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE EASING FOR A TIME INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER BY
LATE SUNDAY, THE ACTUAL SURFACE LOW WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH S/W ENERGY IN THE UPPER LEVELS SWINGING EAST TOWARD
THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST. AS THIS ENERGY MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF STEADIER AND HEAVIER
RAIN MOVING THROUGH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
MONDAY. EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE A DRYING TREND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING RAINFALL TOTALS
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE NAM INDICATES OVER AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION....HEAVIER THAN THE GFS AND EC. LEANED A LITTLE MORE
TOWARD THESE LATTER TWO MODELS AND HAVE FORECAST STORM TOTALS
GENERALLY OF .75 TO 1.00 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. SINCE THIS WILL
BE OCCURRING OVER A 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD WE DON`T EXPECT HYDRO
ISSUES.

THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS ON THE COOL
SIDE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PD BEGINS WITH THE FCST AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A STACKED LOW
OVER NW QUEBEC...LOW EXITING THE NEW ENG CST...AND A BROAD FNT
STALLED OVER THE SE US WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND TROPICAL RAINS. TUE
AND WED LOOK MSTLY DRY UNDER WEAK SFC HIPRES. EVENTUALLY THE
QUEBEC LOW ROTATES A WV AND SFC FNT SE WHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE
CREEPS UP THE ATLANTIC CST. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COME TOGETHER AND
CAUSE COOL RAIN THU UNDER A DVLPG UPR LOW. RAINS SHD LINGER INTO
FRI AS THE CLSD LOW MEANDERS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPS
THRU THE PD WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NRML...BUT NO EXTREMES
XPCTD. ALL IN ALL A DAMP END TO THE WEEK AFTER AN XTNDD PD OPF DRY
WX FOR APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER. THESE SHOWERS
ARE SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD AS THIS BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH. NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY EXPECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND VFR CONDITIONS.
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY MVFR WITH EMBEDDED IFR IS EXPECTED. LOW LVL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AT KELM... KBGM AND KAVP TONIGHT...
THUS EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CIGS IN THESE LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE MOVE INTO
THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN ALL TAF SITES
RETURNING TO VFR.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SUN/MON...RAIN. MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

TUE/WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/PCF
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM/KAH



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