Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 271940
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
340 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer like warmth and humidity will continue over the next
several days. Although much of the time looks rain free, hit and
miss afternoon showers and thunderstorms, are possible through
the long weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
3 PM update...

Isolated convection occurring now across the CWA. A warm humid
airmass with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s.
Good low level instability with 1 to 2k cape. Bulk shear weak and
wind fields are light. Weak forcing with diurnal heating and a
weak short wave. Convection will linger into evening but diminish
with the loss of heating.

Late tonight it should be dry. Low temperatures close to guidance
and in the low and mid 60s. Relative humidity will be close to 100
percent. Thick fog not to likely with convection spotty today,
ground dry and rivers cool.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM Update...

More of the same Saturday and Sunday. Diurnal convection with weak
forcing in a very warm humid airmass. Weak forcing under an upper
level trof. Wind fields weak Saturday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms with temperatures close to what we have today, 85
to 90. The highs today and tomorrow will be within 5 degrees of
records.

Sunday convection diurnal again but wind fields increase with
approaching upper level trof and short wave. Across the north pops
are at likely in the afternoon into the evening. With convection
sooner and more widespread high temps expected to be a few degrees
cooler.

Chance pops Sunday overnight with the surface cold front and
another short wave keeping the showers going into Monday. Midday
fropa will keep max temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Overnight temps Sat and Sun night will remain in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 pm Update...

High pressure will build in from the west across the forecast area
early in the week with quiet weather conditions expected. The upper
ridge and surface high shift to the east by the middle of the week
prior to the next period of showers and storms along a slow-moving
cold front Thursday into the early part of the weekend.

High temperatures will remain warm and steady in the upper 70s and
lower 80s. Overnight lows will also remain steady...dropping into
the mid to upper 50s through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Conditions will remain generally VFR through this evening with a
small chance of a slow-moving shower or thunderstorm impacting a
couple terminals this afternoon. Still not enough confidence to
put TS in the TAF...but with a cluster of storms east of ROC along
the south shore of Lake Ontario the best chance may be around SYR
between 20-23Z and possibly a couple hours later at RME. Will have
to keep an eye on the trends and make quick updates to TAFs if
storms near terminals.

Still a possibility for light fog/haze across the area during the
pre-dawn hours Saturday, with brief IFR or MVFR vsbys.

Southwest winds around 7-10 kt should become light and variable again
this evening and increase slightly out of the W/NW Saturday
morning.

OUTLOOK...

Saturday through Monday...Mostly VFR. Afternoon-evening TSRA
possible any day with brief restrictions, but best chance will be
Sunday- Monday. Also early morning VIS could be reduced in the
moist air mass to MVFR in haze-fog, especially valley site KELM,
which could get have brief lower restrictions.

Monday night to Wednesday...mostly VFR. Some MVFR/IFR valley fog
late at night and early morning.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT/MLJ


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