Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 252350
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
750 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS, PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
6 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES MOSTLY TO UP POPS THE FIRST 3 HOURS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. UPPED HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS ALSO THE
FIRST 3 HOURS. JUST MISSED THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS. A FEW DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY PLUS RECORDS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY. GRIDS LOOK GOOD LATE EVE ON.

330 PM MON UPDATE... ISOLD SHWRS ARE TRACKING THROUGH WRN NY LATE
THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH A FEW LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES COULD SURVIVE ACROSS
OUR NRN ZNS INTO THIS EVE...OVERALL WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
WEAKEN/DSIPT WITH EWD EXTENT. THE VAST MAJORITY OF CNY/NE PA WILL
STAY DRY THROUGH THE EARLY EVE HRS.

LTR TNT INTO EARLY TUE...A S/WV TROUGH...SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE MS VLY LATE THIS AFTN...IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE
EDGE OF UPR RIDGE AXIS...AND PUSH THROUGH CNY/NE PA. ONCE
AGN...IF ANYTHING...WE EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO WEAKEN WITH NEWD
EXTENT. ALSO...UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING SHOULD REDUCE COVERAGE.
THUS...WE`LL KEEP POPS IN THE ISOLD-SCTD RANGE.

TNT WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN RECENT NGTS...WITH CLDS...AND ALSO LOW-
LVL WARM MOIST ADVECTION...HELPING TO KEEP MIN TEMPS MOSTLY AOA 60
DEGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
345 PM MON UPDATE... AS THE UPR RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
NUDGE EWD WITH TIME...GRADUAL HGT FALLS AND OCNL BOUTS OF S/WV
ENERGY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THE FREQUENCY OF CONVECTIVE
DVLPMT...SPCLY FROM WED ONWARD. EVEN SO...THE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL
DEFINITELY HAVE A DIURNAL PREFERENCE...WITH SIG RAIN-FREE PDS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HRS.

THE S/WV...MENTIONED AT THE END OF THE PREV SXN...WILL BE MOVG
THROUGH OUR AREA MAINLY DURG THE MRNG HRS TUE. EVEN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH...THERE SHOULD BE ENUF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED AFTN SHWRS/STORMS...WITH ANY
MINOR RIPPLES ALOFT AND/OR LAKE CONVERGENCE BNDRYS. THE COMBO OF
UP TO 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND DEEP-LYRD SHEAR OF 25-30 KT IS ENUF
FOR A MARGINAL WIND THREAT...SO THIS MENTION WAS MAINTAINED IN THE
HWO.

DEEP ENERGETIC SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND IMPROVING UPR-LVL JET DYNAMICS
WILL CONTINUE THE PSBLTY OF CONVECTION WED-THU. ALTHOUGH...AS
MENTIONED ABV...THE AFTN/EVE HRS ARE GENERALLY FAVORED...DUE TO
UNCERTAIN TIMING THIS FAR OUT...WE`LL KEEP ISOLD-SCTD POPS THROUGH
THE PD. BY THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE MORE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND A DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW PATN (SMALL MBE VECTORS) POINT TO THE PSBLTY OF HIGH RAINFALL
RATES AND TRAINING CELLS. THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING WAS ALSO KEPT IN
THE HWO.

OVERALL...DUE TO FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLDS...WE TEMPERED THE HIGH
TEMPS A BIT ON WED AND THU...KEEPING THEM MOSTLY IN THE UPR 70S-
LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE LOCKED INTO A FAIRLY MODEST RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WITH RESPECT TO THE DAILY DETAILS...THERE ARE
SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WHICH MAKE THIS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE WARM
AND HUMID WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE NOCTURNAL OR EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY IF UPSTREAM WAVES DO NOT FIZZLE. TIMING OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND IS ALSO UP IN THE AIR. GFS
WANTS TO BLAST IT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE CANADIAN
HEMISPHERIC DOESN`T EVEN APPROACH NORTHERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY.
ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE WITH A LATER TIMING...BUT DOES GET A
SEMBLANCE OF A WEAKENING FRONT INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. GFS TYPICALLY BREAKS DOWN RIDGES TOO FAST...SO WILL TEND
TO LEAN WITH THE FRONT GETTING HERE AND HAVE GOOD CHANCE POPS SAT-
SUN...ALTHOUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES MAY BE FINE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH NEPA REMAINING IN SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
THROUGHOUT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS NY BY
MONDAY AS WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT THROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST WILL LOOK SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC WITH RAIN CHANCES EACH
DAY...THE REALITY IS WE ARE NOT SUGGESTING A WASHOUT...BUT RATHER
TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WITH MUCH OF THE TIME DRY IN MOST
AREAS PUNCTUATED WITH PASSING STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
THUNDERSTORMS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING
HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. MID CLOUDS IN MOST OF CENT NY AND
HIGH CLOUDS BGM AND AVP. CIGS LOWER TO 5K FT LATE TONIGHT IN NY
AND TUESDAY AT AVP.

ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH AND POOR MODEL CONSENSUS ON WHEN AND WHERE. DO NOT BELIEVE
THESE SHOWERS WILL CAUSE RESTRICTIONS UNTIL MAYBE THE AFTN AND
THEN ONLY FOR BRIEF PERIODS. OPTED TO NOT TO INCLUDE SHOWERS
EXCEPT AT SYR/RME LATE EVENING. TUES AFTN COULD ALSO HAVE A
THUNDERSTORM.

WINDS GENERALLY SW 10 KTS NOW...DIMINISHING TO UNDER 10 KTS AND
DECOUPLING LATE. SW 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT TO SAT...PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE REGION DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY WILL BE DURING THE WEDS-THURS PERIOD.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...TAC


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