Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 222328

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
728 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Windy, chilly weather will continue for the rest of the weekend. A
fast moving disturbance will bring a quick shot of rain showers
Sunday night. Then for Monday and Tuesday, more brisk conditions
are expected, with highs only in the forties and lower fifties.


730 pm update...
Have kept most of the forecast unchanged with the exception of
replacing the -RA with -DZ later tonight as the air mass dries off
aloft and leaves much of central NY with a layer of low
moisture...possibly saturated and deep enough to produce drizzle
instead of rain. Still may see a couple more inches of snow in the
higher elevations of the Catskills associated with a lake effect
band currently positioned from just se of Syracuse into Chenango
and wrn Otsego counties. Most of the lower valley locations will
remain warm enough for rain...but locations above 1500 ft may
begin to see snow mix in and change over tonight with light

Have kept the Wind Advisory as well with gusty winds expected to
pick up overnight and increase even more...especially in the
Catskills...Sunday morning before backing off in the afternoon.

Previous discussion...
Upper level low was currently centered over northeastern PA as
per water vapor imagery and RAP13 analysis. IR and WV imagery both
show a wide ribbon of enhancement emanating from southeastern New
York northwest across much of upstate NY into Quebec suggestive of
strong synoptic scale lifting. Under this was a batch of a mainly
steady rain which was remained east of a line from ROC-IPT. This
batch of rain was moving slowly eastward as the surface low was
tracking north well off the New England coast at this time. We do
have a report of light snow and mixed precipitation in the hills
north of Oneonta, NY.Looking at mesonet data most locations in the
Catskills, upper Susquehanna region to northeast PA were running
between 33F and 39F with dewpoints a few degrees lower, hence not
much snow was sticking except maybe above 3000 feet or higher.
Temperatures will remain steady or just slowly rise this
afternoon, and then fall later this afternoon into tonight. So
will increase snow this afternoon to our highest elevations in our
eastern areas.

For tonight the upper level low will move northeast reaching
central New England by 00z Sunday with precipitation wrapping
around this low back into central NY and far northeast PA. Then
the upper level low reaches northern New England by 06z Sunday. As
this occurs the surface low will deepen to about 978 mb or so just
north of Maine with a strong pressure gradient especially in our
eastern counties and hence we continue wind advisory for our
Catskill zones. Additionally as precipitation shield moves
northeast through the evening we see some high elevation light
snows mainly above 2000 feet with 1-3 inches possible above 2500
feet which covers several peaks in Delaware and Sullivan counties
in NY. Between 2000 and 2500 feet we see just a covering of snow.
A dusting or just snowflakes likely will be observed down to 1500
feet this evening. Rest of area will see rain taper to showers

For Sunday we see a lot of stratocumulus developing with a small
chance of lake effect flurries or sprinkles in our north central


3 pm update...Model agreement remains excellent this period, in
showing a fast moving short-wave and surface frontal passage
Sunday night, followed by chilly, cyclonic flow aloft Monday-

We`ve upped POP`s into the likely range for most of northeast PA
Sunday night, where the best moisture advection and forced lift
are focused. This system is a fast mover, so precipitation amounts
will still be light (mainly under 0.25 inches liquid). Low-level
warm advection ahead of the surface and mid-level waves will keep
temperatures mild enough Sunday night for all rain.

Monday-Tuesday, a deep northwest flow pattern will bring chilly
temperatures (highs mainly in the 40s and overnight lows in the
low-mid 30s). A few light rain/snow showers are foreseen across
central NY, where instability and low-level moisture will likely
be sufficient to kick in some lake-effect mechanics. Most of
northeast PA should stay dry.


315 pm update...In the big picture, a fast, transitional flow
pattern will continue, with well defined northern stream short-
waves pushing through the region about every 2-3 days.

Tue. night, any lingering lake effect rain/snow showers should be
on the wane, with surface high pressure incoming. Wed. looks dry
from this vantage point, with ridging surface and aloft in

Thu., as the next mid-level wave and surface frontal complex
approach from the west, we`ve retained a chance for showers.

It appears that temperatures may trend milder towards next
weekend, with highs perhaps well into the 50s.


A few bands of rain continue across central NY this evening with
conditions cold enough for snow to mix in across higher
elevations of the Catskills and further north. Will likely see -RA
change to -DZ at KRME and KSYR tonight...while other terminals
remain at either high-end MVFR or VFR. Drier air will slowly move
in from the west and combine with a tight pres gradient and gusty
NW winds to help keep conditions well mixed...and allow the BKN-
OVC MVFR ceilings to persist. Conditions will improve to VFR all
TAF sites Sunday morning and remain VFR through the afternoon.

Winds will be the main area of concern Sunday with west to
northwest 15-25 knots will gusts 25-35 knots.


Sunday night - Monday...Restrictions possible as weak system
moves through.

Tuesday - Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday...MVFR possible in showers.


NY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ046-057-062.


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