Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 230547
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
147 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A
GREAT PERIOD OF EARLY FALL WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE NORTHEAST AND TEMPERATURES MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
1025MB SFC HIGH IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVR CWA AS OF 05Z. HWVR
TROFFING RMNS AT UPR LVLS WITH BATCH OF LOW CLDS MVG SOUTH THRU
CANADA AT THIS TIME.  REMNANT LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVR SOME
PARTS OF SUSQUEHANNA REGIONS/MOHAWK VLY. EXPECT THAT AS SFC RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FM THE WEST, CLDS WL SHIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OF CWA LVG NRN CNTYS PCLDY THIS MRNG AND MOCLR ELSEWHERE.

TEMPS ACRS WRN RVR VLYS HV DROPPED DOWN TO CROSS-OVER TEMPS AND
WATCHING FOR SIGNS OF FOG DVLPMNT. HWVR AM NOT TOO WILD ABOUT THE
PROSPECT AS WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC ARE OUT OF THE NORTH FM 15-20KTS.
THIS WL LKLY KEEP ATMOSPHERE TOO MIXED THIS MRNG WITH PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED TO DVLP BUT FALL WELL SHORT OF LOCALLY DENSE. THUS SEE NO
REASON TO ADD INTO GRIDS AT THIS TIME BUT WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

WITH WINDS ABV THE SFC AT 20KTS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
TEMP DROP AND WITH DWPTS RMNG IN THE UPR 30S THIS WL LKLY PRECLUDE
THE DVLPMNT OF FROST THIS MRNG.

AS FOR WX EXPECTED TDA, PRTLY-MSTLY SUNNY EXPECTED CWA-WIDE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MIXING LOOKS AS THO IT WL OCCUR UP TO
ABOUT 875MB. THIS WL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS IN THE M/U 60S WHICH WL BE
5-10 DEGREES ABV YDA VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE IN THE VCNTY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TROF. SCT/BKN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. TEMPS WILL MODIFY NICELY INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S AS T925 REACHES 11/13C.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THIS PERIOD. 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE NEAR 590 DM LOCALLY BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITH A WEAK SFC REFLECTION ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER. ATTM THESE
FEATURES WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR AREA TO REMAIN PRECIP
FREE BUT THE FAR SE FA COULD SEE MORE CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD.

MAXES ON WED/THU WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE ANTICYCLONE COVERS THE NORTHEAST U.S FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
EURO AND GFS BOTH SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE RUNNING INTO THE UPR
AIR RDG BY SUNDAY BUT THE AMS WILL BE VERY DRY WITH THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE OFF SHORE. THUS THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD SHUD BE
RAIN-FREE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS STARTING TO BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN
QUIET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH THE WINDS ALOFT STILL
REMAINING FROM THE NW... SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS
MORNING AT KRME... KSYR AND KITH. BELIEVE REMAINING SITES SHOULD
SEE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXPECT FOR KELM. KELM MAY SEE SOME
FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AS WINDS
RIGHT OFF THE SFC ARE AROUND 20 KNOTS. THIS MAY INHIBIT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT... THUS DECIDED TO MENTION TEMPO ATTM AND MAY AMEND
OUT OF TAF FOR THE 09Z AMENDMENTS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON... EXPECT ANOTHER DECK TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
AROUND 4K FT. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 12 KNOTS AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS
FURTHER INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR
SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT THROUGH SAT...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS RELATED TO
EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG PRIMARILY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...KAH






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