Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 221934
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
334 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING THE SHOWERS TO AN END. DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
115 PM UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS DVLPNG ACRS CWA THIS AFTN BUT SHOWERS ARE NOT MVG AT
THIS TIME. IT`S FORTUNATE THAT THE 40-50 DBZ ECHOES ARE DVLPNG AT
RANDOM AND NOT STAYING IN ONE PLACE FOR TOO LONG. MOST WE HV BEEN
ABLE TO MUSTER IS 1 IN/HR WHICH WL NOT BE ENUF TO CAUSE FLOODING
PROBLEMS UNLESS THEY DVLP OVR SENSITIVE AREAS THAT OCCURRED LAST
NIGHT, MAINLY IN CHENANGO AND SUSQUEHANNA PA.

CONVECTION OVR HIGHER TERRAIN OF MADISON/ONONDAGA CNTYS LOOKS TO BE
FIRING ON REMNANT SFC BNDRY. FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST ACRS THE
FINGER LKS CONVECTION DVLPNG IN RESPONSE TO APPCHG S/WV NOW DIVING
INTO WNY. CAPE GRADIENT CURRENTLY EXISTS PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED
ALONG THE I-81 CORRIDOR AND CONTS TO PUSH WEST AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN
FM NEW ENGLAND. NO IN-CLD LIGHTNING IS BEING SEEN WITH CURRENT CELLS
BUT EXPECT THIS WL NOT BE THE TREND THRU THE COURSE OF THE AFTN.

AS STORMS DVLP THEY WL LKLY RMN FAIRLY STATIONARY. PW VALUES RMN
ARND 1.5 INCHES, SIMILAR TO YDA. THUS STILL EXPECTING POSSIBILITY
FOR FLASH FLOODING INTO THIS EVNG BFR INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE AFT
SUNSET.

AS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS EXPECT LAST S/WV CURRENTLY LOCATED ACRS SRN
QUEBEC TO SWING DOWN WITH UPR LVL TROF. THIS WL KEEP CHC FOR SLGT
CHC/CHC SHOWERS IN THRU THE NIGHT. AS WE HEAD CLOSER TO 12Z EXPECT
PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE ACRS ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
235 PM UPDATE...
LINGERING SHOWERS WL RMN ON SATURDAY AS LAST S/WV MAKES ITS FINAL
PUSH ACRS THE REGION. SHOWERS WL PLAGUE AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A
PENN-YAN TO SCRANTON LINE AND GRADUALLY HEAD SOUTH THRU THE AFTN
HRS. SKIES WL RMN CLDY THRU A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY WITH NOT MUCH
HTG EXPECTED AND WITH A MOIST AIRMASS RMNG IN PLACE DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPS TO RISE MUCH THRU THE DAY. WITH TEMPS STUCK IN THE M70S AND
POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S ACRS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CATSKILLS AND NEPA.

SAT NGT LOOKS TO BE AN EXCELLENT RADNL COOLING NIGHT WITH POSSIBLY
LOCALLY DENSE VLY FOG FRMG AFT 06Z. CLRNG SKIES AND CALM WINDS WL
SET THE STAGE FOR DENSE FOG DVLPNG IN THE VLYS WITH POSSIBLY PATCHY
FOG THE RMNDR OF THE AREA. HV ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO VLYS AS
CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING IS FAIRLY HIGH.

FOR SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WL REIGN SUPREME WITH UL RIDGE NOW
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO AREA FM THE MIDWEST. ONLY THING OF INTEREST
TO NOTE WL BE SLGT INCRS IN CLDS ACRS ERN ZONES AS WK LEE-SIDE
TROFFING BEGINS TO DVLP DRG THE AFTN.

HIPRES CONTS THRU THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM WITH NO PCPN EXPECTED.
SKIES EXPECTED TO BE SUNNY ON MONDAY ALLOWING MAXES TO WARM BACK
INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN AS H8 TEMPS CLIMB TO NR 15C.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THE
MAIN QUESTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS HOW LONG IT TAKES TO BEAT
IT BACK DOWN. ECMWF IS A LITTLE QUICKER BY SENDING A DRY WEAKENING
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
AND A WETTER FRONT THURSDAY. GFS MEANWHILE MAINTAINS THE
RIDGE WITHOUT AN INITIAL DRY FRONT...YET ALSO SENDS A WET COLD
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND STRONGER THAN THE VERSION IN ECMWF.
HAVE MAINLY GONE WITH WPC GUIDANCE...WITH DRY WARM PERIOD MONDAY
NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY...THEN 30-40 PCT CHANCE POPS INCLUDING POSSIBLE
THUNDER BY NEXT THURSDAY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEING NEARLY A WEEK
OUT...DID NOT WANT TO HIGHER THAN THAT UNTIL MODEL DETAILS CAN BE
FIRMED UP BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST YET ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. DAYTIME
HEATING BY ITSELF WILL REALIZE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS AROUND THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING...BUT THUNDER CHANCES ARE CONSIDERABLY LESS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY BECAUSE OF LIMITED INSTABILITY. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE CB WITHIN ANY OF THE TAFS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY...WITH
KAVP HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM YET EVEN
THERE LOW CONFIDENCE. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS TRANSLATED TO OUR
NORTHEAST...AND A DISTURBANCE ON ITS PERIPHERY WILL BACK THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT. MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
DROPPING...BUT THIS BACKDOOR FRONT OF SORTS WILL KEEP SCT SHRA
GOING OVERNIGHT KBGM-KELM SOUTHWARD...WITH BEST CHANCE KAVP
/INCLUDED TEMPO SHRA GROUP/. REGARDLESS...TRAPPED MOISTURE WILL
CAUSE MVFR CIGS DIPPING INTO FUEL ALT REQ LEVELS...AND EVEN IFR
/POSSIBLY WORSE AT TIMES/ LATE FOR KBGM-KELM AND BRIEFLY KITH.
IMPROVEMENT WILL SLOWLY OCCUR 14Z-18Z SATURDAY. WINDS GENERALLY
VARIABLE OR LIGHT ESE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

LATE SAT THROUGH WED...VFR EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN EARLY MORNING
VALLEY FOG MAINLY AT KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP






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