Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 191515
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1015 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TODAY
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
THE ADVISORY FOR THE FZDZ HAS EXPIRED. MOST OF THE OBSERVATIONS
NOW REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. RADAR SHOWING ONE MAIN WEAK
BAND OF PRECIP FROM CORTLAND TO WINDSOR. MOISTURE AND PRECIP
SHALLOW SO RETURNS MOSTLY CLOSE TO THE RADARS. WITH MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER A LARGE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
LITTLE TODAY AND REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING. POPS AND WEATHER
GRIDS LOOKED GOOD AND KEPT AS IS.

645 AM UPDATE...
WILL BE ABLE TO LET GO OF STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-ONEIDA FROM
ADVISORY AS EXPECTED WITH WIDENING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ERODING
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS THERE. MEANWHILE...REMAINDER OF ADVISORY
IN CENTRAL NY...AND SUSQUEHANNA- NORTHERN WAYNE PA...STILL
WARRANTED THROUGH 10 AM DUE TO CONTINUED VERY LIGHT NW-FLOW LAKE
MOISTURE BANDS PRODUCING FLURRIES AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THAT BEING SAID...SATELLITE IS SHOWING THAT THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED A FEW DEGREES...ENOUGH TO WHERE A GREATER
PROPORTION OF PRECIP IS NOW IN FORM OF FLURRIES...THAT
IS...DRIZZLE IS BECOMING MORE PATCHY WITH TIME. RECENT SPOTTER
REPORT IN HARTWICK OF OTSEGO COUNTY...AND 6AM OBS IN
SYRACUSE...INDICATE THOUGH THAT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IS STILL
MANAGING TO OCCUR IN PLACES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER...WILL
PERSIST IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS /AND ACTUAL
BUFFALO 00Z SOUNDING/ CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS IF THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR ICE CRYSTALS. MUCH OF THE TIME...WARMER THAN MINUS-10 CELSIUS
AND THUS CLOUDS MADE OF MAINLY SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS AND NOT ICE
CRYSTALS. YET WITHIN INDIVIDUAL BANDS...MOISTURE BRIEFLY DEEP
ENOUGH TO REACH SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MANAGING SOME ICE
CRYSTALS. BEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK DUE TO LAKE ONTARIO MOISTURE...AS
WELL AS SOME LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS DUE TO FINGER LAKES AND
TOPOGRAPHY FORCING UPSLOPING. OUTSIDE OF INDIVIDUAL
BANDS...FREEZING DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD. WHETHER SNOW OR ICE...ACCUMULATIONS OF EITHER
WILL BE VERY LIGHT...THOUGH ANY ICE WHATSOEVER WILL CAUSE SLICK
SPOTS ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 10 AM FOR TWIN TIERS
NORTHWARD DUE TO CONTINUED AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...EXCEPT
STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-BRADFORD-ONEIDA WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM AS PREVIOUSLY
SCHEDULED WITH ENCROACHING DRIER AIR/LOWER DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO ERODE
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERN IN THOSE AREAS BY THEN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
LOWERING AREAWIDE TODAY...WITH SATURATED LAYER GRADUALLY GETTING
THINNER...SO WITH TIME IT WILL BECOME HARDER TO SUPPORT -FZDZ
OUTSIDE OF THE FLURRY BANDS.

LAST OF FLURRIES/PATCHY -FZDZ WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY EVENING...BUT
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEPRESS DIURNAL RANGE. TEMPERATURES BARELY
GOING ANYWHERE TODAY...HIGHS IN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THEN
TONIGHT...LOWS MAINLY IN LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ON SUNSHINE PROSPECTS. ALL MODELS SHOW VARYING
DEGREES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY LIFTING IT NORTH OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOWS BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. WITH ALMOST NO
WIND UP THROUGH 5,000 FEET, ON ONE HAND IT WOULD MAKE SENSE THIS
MOISTURE IS HARD TO SCOUR OUT DUE TO THE LACK OF MIXING/LOW SUN
ANGLE AND A PESKY INVERSION. ON THE OTHER HAND WE WON`T HAVE ANY
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE LAKE OR UPSLOPE FLOW TO DEAL WITH. ANOTHER
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS JUST HOW THICK WILL THE MOISTURE DEPTH BE.
IF YOU TOOK THE MODEL SOUNDINGS TO BE ANYWHERE CLOSE TO CORRECT,
THE LAYER OF MOISTURE CERTAINLY APPEARS THIN ENOUGH THAT SUNSHINE
IS LIKELY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE MODELS OFTEN DO A POOR JOB WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHEN IT IS THIS SHALLOW. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE
I HOPE YOU GET THE IDEA THAT WHILE SUN PROSPECTS ARE DECENT FOR
BOTH DAYS, IT IS VERY COMPLICATED. FOR NOW I LIKE THE IDEA OF GRADUALLY
THINNING CLOUDS SATURDAY OVER THE MORE FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICAL
AREAS OF NEPA. GRADUALLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON I SHOW A TRANSITION
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF BRIEF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
MONDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY RAIN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, AND LASTLY A
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY ALONG WITH COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE STORM SYSTEM NEXT
WEEK WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THE BEST SHOT
FOR SNOWFALL WOULD BE ON CHRISTMAS ITSELF.

A DEEP TROF WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY. TO
VARYING DEGREES THE GFS AND EURO MOVE MOISTURE OUR WAY LATER
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. I
GRADUALLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS PERIOD,
FAVORING THE WETTER 0Z EURO VS. THE DRIER 0Z GFS. AT THE ONSET
LATE MONDAY, SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. QUICKLY
HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL CHANGE MOST OF THE AREA OVER TO
PLAIN RAIN BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL
LINGER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS
EAST OF I-81, AND ACROSS NORTHEAST PA.

AS A RESULT OF THE TROF MENTIONED ABOVE, A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND TRACK EITHER JUST WEST OR OVER
OUR AREA. ALL MODELS SHOW A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WEDNESDAY. AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES TO OUR NORTH, MUCH
COLDER AIR WRAPS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE CHRISTMAS EVE INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY. WE MAY GET DRY SLOTTED IN THE CHRISTMAS EVE AS THE
COLDER AIR MOVES IN, LIMITING SNOWFALL CHANCES AT FIRST. HOWEVER
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA BY
MIDDAY CHRISTMAS. SINCE THE GFS AND EURO MATCH UP WELL BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LOW POSITION, STRENGTH, AND 1000-500 MB RH FIELDS,
I LEAN HEAVILY WITH EURO QPF AMOUNTS CHRISTMAS. WHILE NOT A BIG
SNOWFALL, EURO SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD GIVE US A DECENT SHOT AT A WHITE
GROUND FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACROSS
NY STATE AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA, THIS MAY END UP BEING A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE..
MOIST CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD A SHALLOW CLOUD
LAYER THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT THAT KAVP SHOULD START TO
SCATTER OUT 03Z SAT ONWARD. INTERMITTENT -SN AT KITH-KBGM AND
-FZDZSN FOR KSYR THROUGH 15Z BUT WITH LIMITED DEGRADATION TO VIS
BECAUSE VERY LIGHT. MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST FOR ALL TERMINALS...FUEL ALT
REQ LEVEL KBGM- KSYR- KITH /EVEN BRIEFLY IFR CIG AT TIMES KITH
12Z-15Z/. WINDS GENERALLY NW AT 5-10 KTS THIS PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SAT THROUGH MON...LINGERING MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL NY TERMINALS SAT MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MIXED PRECIP.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/TAC
NEAR TERM...MDP/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...MDP





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