Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 250030
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
730 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Tonight and Thursday.

A cooler air mass has spread over most of central Alabama this
afternoon with temperatures mostly in the upper 60s northwest to
upper 70s southeast. The more stable air mass has brought an end
to the severe threat. An upper level cold core low with 500mb
temperatures near -22 Celsius near the Missouri Bootheel will
track southeast overnight and move across north Alabama.
Temperatures this cold aloft do not normally occur this far south
in May. The cold core low will produce steep mid level lapse rates
across central Alabama later tonight. This elevated instability
combined with deeper moisture will likely produce isolated
elevated thunderstorms. The storms could even produce some small
hail. The areal coverage of showers should decrease after midnight
as the large scale lift associated with the upper low shifts into
Georgia. The low will push rapidly eastward Thursday morning with
clearing skies expected across all of central Alabama. A very
pleasant conditions on Thursday with lower humidity and
temperatures slightly below normal.

58/rose

.LONG TERM...
Friday through Tuesday.

Much warmer and dry conditions on Friday as an upper ridge builds
over the area. An approaching front will move closer to the area
on Saturday. So with the increase in temperatures and increase in
moisture those summer time thunderstorms will once again develop
and impact a good portion of the area as the front tries to drape
into the area over the weekend. Those discrepancies that existed
yesterday with the timing of the models remain especially from
Tuesday onward. Once again the GFS tries to clear the front on
through while the Euro stalls it out. So what happens after
Tuesday is still up in the air but at this point would side on the
side of the Euro as it handled this past event fairly well by
stalling the front and keeping the area moist. More on that in the
upcoming days.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Wrap around rain showers associated with the digging upper low
pressure system will continue to be scattered across Central
Alabama during this evening. After midnight, we should see this
activity decrease across the area as the low treks eastward across
Kentucky and Tennessee and then northeast away from the area
toward morning, taking moisture away with it. Could see some
breezy conditions across the north with showers, but all
indications are low top moderate showers with only isolated
lightning. Some gusty gradient winds will be possible during the
day on Thursday across the area, but with VFR conditions during
the day Thursday as conditions remain dry.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Shower activity will continue across central Alabama through this
evening as an upper level low tracks across the area. Rainfall
amounts will average around one-tenth of an inch. Rain free
conditions and lower humidity values will prevail Thursday and
Friday. Rain chances will return by the end of the weekend.
Critical fire weather are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     52  73  53  85  64 /  50  10   0   0  10
Anniston    53  74  55  85  64 /  50  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  54  75  58  87  68 /  50  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  52  77  58  88  67 /  40   0   0   0   0
Calera      53  75  58  87  67 /  50   0   0   0   0
Auburn      54  74  57  84  65 /  40  10   0   0   0
Montgomery  55  79  58  89  65 /  30   0   0   0   0
Troy        54  77  58  88  64 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$

58/16/08



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