Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 270328
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1028 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Evening Update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and storms did remain west of Central Alabama this
evening, with activity currently confined close to the Mississippi
River. This activity will remain west of the area overnight as
mid level ridging and slightly drier air aloft remains dominant
over Central Alabama.

The cirrus shield from convection to our west will continue to
spread across the area. As a result of this added cloud cover
and a warmer hourly temp trend, will bump overnight lows up a
couple degrees in most locations. No other updates needed at this
time.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Expect light southerly flow to continue across forecast area through
the forecast period with mainly some scattered cirrus across the
area overnight and scattered cumulus developing after 15z. TSRA
activity in Tn has been moving south but don`t expect this to make
it far enough south to affect any of our terminals. Could see brief
5SM BR vcnty MGM and TOI toward daybreak so have included tempo
groups there. Otherwise VFR conditions expected to prevail through
18Z. Any TSRA that develop Friday should form after 18Z and even
then only expect isolated activity with chance at any particular TAF
site very low.

41


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Mostly dry conditions with above normal temperatures are expected
through the week with only minimal rain chances. There are no fire
weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/Issued 702 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

A MCS is pushing southward through TN this evening as another MCS
pushes southward through far southeast TX. Between these two
complexes, showers and thunderstorms are filling in as a shortwave
approaches the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Near-term HI-RES
guidance shows the focus for activity remaining west of Central
Alabama this evening, as the TN MCS shifts slightly to the WSW.
Over the last hour, lighting activity on the eastern extent of the
line has decreased and current radar trends show the western
portion of the line becoming more dominant. As this line sinks
southward, it`s possible a few showers or thunderstorms could
affect northwest Central Alabama, and have added POPs for the next
few hours.

Elsewhere, a stray shower or storm is possible across the
southwest for the next couple hours as daytime heating wanes.
Coverage will be low, and will handle with a 10 POP.

Temperature trends are good right now. However, not confident on
how the increasing cirrus shield will affect cooling tonight.
Will re-assess temperatures in a few hours.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     64  89  61  87  60 /  10  30  20  10  10
Anniston    67  89  63  87  62 /  10  20  20  10  10
Birmingham  71  90  67  86  66 /  10  10  20  10  10
Tuscaloosa  69  90  66  87  67 /  10  10  20  20  10
Calera      68  89  67  86  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
Auburn      66  88  64  87  63 /  10  10   0  10   0
Montgomery  68  91  66  89  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
Troy        66  90  63  89  59 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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