Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 241720
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1120 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Overall, things are much calmer across Central Alabama over the
next week and into the weekend. A cold front will move through
during the day on Wednesday and into Wednesday night, with the
highest pops expected late afternoon through Midnight. At this
time we are only looking at rain as instability just is not there
for any thunderstorms. Any rain after Midnight will be south of
I-85.

Cooler conditions return to the area on Thursday, with even some
below freezing overnight lows from Friday morning through Tuesday
morning. Look for highs to be in the 40s to 50s each day, with
generally sunny to partly cloudy skies through Saturday as we will
be in a zonal flow across the southern states.

On Sunday night/Monday morning there will be a shortwave that will
try to dig down toward the area and bring some moisture with it.
Both the GFS and Euro show some precip associated with the
shortwave trying to get into Central Alabama. The GFS is much more
aggressive than the Euro, but the overall timing is the same.
Right now it appears that all the precipitation is ahead of the
colder temperatures and if it falls over the northeast it would be
all liquid. Any precip that does fall will be light. At this time
though, the differences in the placement of the precipitation and
the fact that the airmass will be extremely dry, will leave out of
the forecast and continue to monitor trends over the next few
runs.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions are expected through tonight at all terminals.
Expect a northerly low level flow to become southerly overnight
and into early on Wednesday with the approach of a cold front from
the west. A cold front currently located across the central plains
states will move east and move from west to east across the area
during the day on Wednesday. Ahead of the front expect lowering
CIGs overnight with SHRA possible at TCL/BHM toward 15Z on
Wednesday with sites further south and east affected by possible
SHRA later in the day. Instability values look to be too low to
support any TSRA through the period.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry weather until the next front on Wednesday. Scattered to
numerous rain showers will be possible along with cooler
temperatures. No fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     60  41  66  41  49 /   0  10  40  50  10
Anniston    61  43  69  43  52 /   0  10  20  50  10
Birmingham  62  47  69  41  51 /   0  10  50  40   0
Tuscaloosa  63  46  70  40  53 /   0  10  50  40   0
Calera      62  45  70  42  53 /   0  10  40  50   0
Auburn      62  45  70  47  54 /   0   0  10  50  10
Montgomery  64  45  75  47  58 /   0   0  10  50  10
Troy        64  44  75  47  57 /   0   0  10  50  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



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