Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 282159
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
359 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS ALL OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY
IN CONTROL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM YESTERDAY IS LONG GONE WITH
LIGHT OR VARIABLE WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW
HAS ALREADY BEGUN ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AHEAD A WEAK SYSTEM CURRENTLY
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
QUICKLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICKING
UP AROUND 10 KNOTS. TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO WARM NICELY INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WITH THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY. CERTAINLY NOTHING
EXTREMELY COLD...BUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

FOR SUNDAY`S SYSTEM...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME IN MUCH WEAKER WITH
THE OVERALL SETUP WITH A VERY ILL DEFINED SURFACE LOW AS OPPOSED TO
A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM THAT WAS ADVERTISED YESTERDAY. I DON`T WANT
TO FLIP FLOP THE FORECAST TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LARGE
GUIDANCE SHIFT FROM YESTERDAY...BUT I HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED
DOWN RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND TAKEN THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
WE`LL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO ADD IT BACK IN IF NEED BE...BUT THE
OVERALL SYSTEM LOOKS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL FAIRLY HIGH OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL...AND LEFT CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
IF THE WEAKER TREND WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE CONSISTENT...WE`LL
HAVE TO DROP RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM WHAT WE`RE CURRENTLY ADVERTISING
TO ONE HALF INCH AT THE HIGHEST FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES COULD HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR FILTERING
SOUTHWARD TO ALLOW FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN WITH THE LIGHT
RAINFALL EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE`RE NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS
FROM THIS IF IT HAPPENS AT ALL...AS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AND END THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY
SUNRISE. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
PERHAPS ANOTHER SYSTEM ON THE HORIZON MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST
BY MIDWEEK.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RIDGE BUT BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND
TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
EAST AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

08/MK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     32  60  34  49  27 /   0  20  20   0   0
ANNISTON    34  61  36  50  29 /   0  20  30   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  38  63  36  50  30 /   0  20  20   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  38  67  38  53  31 /   0  20  20   0   0
CALERA      37  63  38  52  32 /   0  20  20   0   0
AUBURN      35  60  39  54  32 /   0  10  30   0   0
MONTGOMERY  35  67  41  56  32 /   0  10  20   0   0
TROY        33  65  41  56  32 /   0   0  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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