Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 312336
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG I-85.
DEWPOINTS HAD DROPPED INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE
NORTH...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION THERE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST ACROSS THE STATE LINE FROM
AUBURN...AND MAY NEED TO MAKE A LAST MINUTE INCREASE IN POPS THERE
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE SIMILAR.
POPS WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. NOT UNTIL WE
GET TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE SOUTHERLY...DO WE GET BACK TO MORE TYPICAL MID-SUMMER RAIN
CHANCES.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY LONGER. A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED BETWEEN MGM/TOI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MEAN FLOW IS ACTUALLY NORTH NORTHEAST...BUT LEFT
VCTS IN FOR TOI THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY
DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE FLOW. THE CLOUD
BACK ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS HAD A FEW LEVELS AROUND
4-5K FT AND AROUND 10K FT. THESE CLOUDS WILL ADVECT WESTWARD WHILE
SLOWLY DIMINISHING. ADDED MENTION AT TOI/MGM THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE FRONT MOVES VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND SOME LIGHT FOG MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z. WILL MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENTS TOMORROW...BUT
TOI SEEMS THE CLOSEST TO ANY CLOUDS OR PRECIP AT THIS TIME.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     64  92  65  93  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANNISTON    65  92  67  92  70 /   0  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  67  92  69  93  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  67  95  69  96  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      65  92  67  93  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      70  90  70  92  73 /  30  20  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  72  94  72  95  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
TROY        71  92  71  93  73 /  40  30  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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