Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 282335
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
635 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL NOT MUCH OF CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH TONIGHT...KEEPING CLOUDS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE NORTHEAST. WHAT THIS WILL DO IS
CREATE A NICE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE THIS MAY BE THE I-22/US 280 STRETCH. AREAS NORTHEAST
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MOST LIKELY DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING...THUS
A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. NOT AS CONFIDENT
HERE AS CLOUD COVER COULD PLAY A ROLL IN DETERMINING THE EXTENT OF
THE FROST.

A DRY DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST TO
WEST. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
FRONT BEGINS TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ONCE IT STARTS...LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS...SO WENT WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
THEN CENTRAL AND SOUTH ON MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WE WILL SEE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN FOR
THE WEEK. FINALLY ON SATURDAY A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THIS FRONT SHOULD ACTUALLY CLEAR OUT THE AREA FOR AT
LEAST THE REST OF NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDS EXPECTED BY 03Z. LGT NW WINDS EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHEAST 5-7 KTS BY
15Z AS A SFC HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     26  58  48  68  43 /   0  10  70  50  10
ANNISTON    27  59  48  68  43 /   0   0  50  60  10
BIRMINGHAM  30  60  52  70  47 /   0   0  60  60  10
TUSCALOOSA  36  66  54  73  51 /   0   0  50  60  20
CALERA      32  60  52  71  50 /   0   0  40  70  20
AUBURN      34  59  48  72  49 /   0   0  20  60  20
MONTGOMERY  39  64  52  74  54 /  10   0  10  60  20
TROY        38  66  50  74  53 /   0   0  10  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-
BIBB-BULLOCK-CHILTON-DALLAS-ELMORE-GREENE-HALE-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-
MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE-RUSSELL-SUMTER-TUSCALOOSA.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-
LAMAR-MARION-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA-
WALKER-WINSTON.

&&

$$


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