Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 220947
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
347 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and storms are ongoing in a band stretching from the
Missouri Bootheel southward into central Louisiana along a cold
front. This system will be headed in our direction today, and the
potential for severe storms remains unclear.

Models have generally trended somewhat more impressive with
moisture quality across the warm sector for this afternoon, which
would definitely increase our severe weather risk. With relatively
steep mid-level lapse rates and 0-1 SRH of 200-300 m2/s2, this
scenario could yield bowing segments or a few robust supercells.
Potential threats include isolated damaging winds, quarter size
hail, and a couple of tornadoes.

On the other hand, if the convective band to our west holds
together longer and moves faster than some models indicate, it
may end up contaminating and disrupting the warm sector. This would
probably shunt the severe weather risk southward to along and
south of U.S. Highway 80.

Today`s system should move through rather quickly, and most of the
rain should be gone by 8 PM. High pressure and dry weather will
return for Tuesday through Friday. A progressive trough will emerge
across the Plains late in the week, and rain chances should
increase for late Friday night through Sunday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

At this time, it appears that there will not be any overwhelming
changes from the previous forecast. VFR forecast the first 8 hrs
and then some MVFR ceilings move in from the south southwest and
southeast. These clouds will slowly drop to around 012 into the
afternoon. A cold front will swing through the region and will
accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Added some VCSH out
ahead of the front, but these should be relatively minor. It
appears there will be a few hour window where some storms are
possible between 18-01z. Clouds will decrease by around 06z while
winds weaken and veer to the west.

LLWS will be very close as winds above the surface increase
overnight to 35-40 kts at 016-020. Surface winds should also
slowly increase and will literally be just below the criteria. If
any changes in either of these winds occur, some mention may
become necessary.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moisture and southerly flow will continue to increase today ahead
of a cold front. Rain is likely this afternoon and evening as the
front moves across the area. Dry and mild conditions will return
for Tuesday through Thursday. There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     64  41  52  29  53 /  90  70   0   0   0
Anniston    66  40  55  29  54 /  90  70   0   0   0
Birmingham  64  40  54  32  55 /  90  40   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  69  41  56  32  57 /  90  20   0   0   0
Calera      67  42  56  32  56 /  90  50   0   0   0
Auburn      69  44  58  33  56 /  70  70   0   0   0
Montgomery  72  41  60  34  58 /  80  70   0   0   0
Troy        72  46  61  35  58 /  80  70   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



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