Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBMX 272111
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
411 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF INTEREST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST. WE`VE HAD SOME SITES MIX OUT INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S...WITH LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST IS TO THANK FOR THE DRY EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW. WE`LL HAVE ONE MORE DAY OF DRIER AIR DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY BEFORE THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT`S BEEN IN CONTROL OF A GOOD PORTION OF
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WET PATTERN COMING UP OVER THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY MOIST PROFILE THROUGHOUT BASED ON
MODEL SOUNDINGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF THAT WAS BEING INVESTIGATED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS TODAY.
PWATS ARE STILL BEING ADVERTISED JUST ABOVE 2.20 INCHES...WHICH IS
AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY.
LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WE SHOULDN`T HAVE TO DEAL WITH ANY
SEVERE WEATHER AS THE PROFILE IS COMPLETELY SATURATED. YOU`D HAVE
TO LOOK FOR SOME DRY AIR ALOFT TO HAVE A CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG
WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES BEING ADVERTISED. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20-25 KNOTS WILL HELP SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS AND
TAP INTO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. CURRENTLY...THE GREATEST AXIS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL BASED ON THE LATEST LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
CERTAINLY NOT TALKING ABOUT ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME...WITH MUCH OF THE STATE ABNORMALLY DRY. WE COULD BE TALKING
AT LEAST 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
COUNTIES IN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS. WE`LL BE REFINING AMOUNTS
AND LOCATION OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE COMING DAYS.

WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID...SEE NO REASON TO NOT INCLUDE ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE RAISED
TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE COMING DAYS ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
65. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO CLIMO
WITH UPPER HEIGHTS ON THE INCREASE. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT A FRONT HEADING OUR WAY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT THE UPPER TROUGH JUST DOESN`T LOOK DEEP ENOUGH FOR
THE FRONT TO REACH CENTRAL ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...KEPT
CLIMO POPS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT EXCEPT
IN THE 5-6KFT RANGE WHERE FEW-SCT CU WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO SUNSET.
EASTERLY SURFACE WIND COMPONENT WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. STEFKOVICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     62  93  64  94  69 /   0   0   0  10  20
ANNISTON    64  92  66  93  71 /   0   0   0  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  67  93  70  94  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  65  95  68  95  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
CALERA      67  93  69  93  74 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      66  93  67  93  73 /   0   0   0  10  20
MONTGOMERY  67  95  70  95  74 /   0   0   0  10  30
TROY        64  93  66  94  73 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.