Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 200205
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1005 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LET TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME
PROTECTED HIGH ELEVATION AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS COULD DIP INTO THE
TEENS. CLOUDS WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...GENERATING
WET WEATHER FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1003 PM EDT SUNDAY...LOW CLOUD CLEARING PROGRESSION STILL
SLOWER THAN FCST BUT FASTER THAN AT 7 PM. CLDS FM NEXT SYSTEM
ALREADY ADVANCING. THE END RESULT...MIN T WILL BE A FEW DEGS OR
MORE MILDER THAN ORIGINAL FCST IN SPOTS AND HAVE MADE SUCH ADJUSTMENTS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 7 PM...CLEARING SKIES A TAD DELAYED BUT TRENDS
ARE THERE AND SHOULD WITNESS A DECENT CLEARING OF LOW CLOUDS WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OCCURRING AT SAME TIME. THUS HAVE DELAYED
CLEARING IN FCST BUT HAVE NOT TOUCHED TEMPS ATTM BUT MAY NEED TO
MODIFY AS CLDS DONT ERADICATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AXIS OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION GENERATING INSTABILITY AND SOME SHOWERS, RAIN AND/OR
GRAUPEL. INTERESTING THAT WE HAVE DESTABILIZED DESPITE SURFACE
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AND COLDEST
MID LEVEL AIR MOVING OUT OF REGION EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED SPRINKLES LOW ELEVATIONS THROUGH ABOUT
00Z WHEN POPS DIE OUT.

500MB FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN RESPONSE TO EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST
AND NEXT TROUGH DIGGING TO OUR WEST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
WEST TO EAST OVER THE EASTERN US, BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND VIS SATELLITE SHOWING
SOME CLEARING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LOW
STRATUS DECK TAKING ON MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
APPEARANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION
AND CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO
RADIATE AWAY. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT DESPITE
RADIATION. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG FOR SOME MIXING...AND
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMP/DEWPOINT CROSSOVER TEMPS
FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S EXCEPT SOME
TEENS IN HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

TEMPS...COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. SOURCE AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
ORIGINATED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY, WHERE MINS WERE IN THE 30S AND
MATCH GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 321 PM EDT SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST
TAKES A TURN THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO PROGRESS. SURFACE LOW SPINS UP...AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
IN NORTHERN NY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW MOVES WEST TO EAST...REMAINING
MOSTLY SOUTH OF AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER RAIN WILL EXTEND NORTH
WITH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY A NEW
SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN UP NEAR THE COAST AND TAKE OVER. POPS
DECREASE IN THE WEST AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...AND INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST
VERMONT IN RESPONSE TO COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS.

TEMPS MODERATE FROM MONDAY ONWARD WHEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 252 PM EDT SUNDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
PRESSURE EVOLVES ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG WITH WIDESREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS OF RAIN. SOME OF THE RAIN
COULD TREND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WED/THU AS DEEP
MARITIME EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED...LATEST
12Z GEFS MEAN 850 MB U-WIND VECTOR ANOMALIES AVG BETWEEN +3 AND +5
STD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...SO CATEGORICAL POPS
DEFINITELY LOOK IN ORDER...ESP ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE DACKS/GREENS. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A QPF MAX IN THE NRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH SHADOWING
EFFECTS LIKELY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES AND PORTIONS OF THE NE
KINGDOM...DOWNSTREAM OF THE WHITES IN THIS CASE. DIFFICULTY LIES
IN HOW DEEP MOISTURE SPOKES EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/NORTHEAST. GIVEN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS...FEEL 3-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WED-FRI WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE SLV) WITH
SCATTERED HIGHER TOTALS IN FAVORED EASTERN SLOPE COMMUNITIES. THIS
COULD LEAD TO RATHER SHARP RISES ON SOME AREA RIVERS BY LATER IN
THE WEEK SO LATER FORECASTS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STUCK CLOSE
TO BLENDED MOS VALUES...THOUGH NARROWED DIURNAL RANGES SLIGHTLY
GIVEN CLOUDS AND WARMING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT. HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL LATE OCTOBER NORMS. ADDL BACKSIDE ENERGY MAY SPARK A
FEW NORTHERN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT GENERAL IDEA OF SLOWLY DRYING
CONDS ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE HERE AND THERE LOOKS
REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RATHER SOLID DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING BUT
CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT. LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END AT KSLK. A DECREASE
IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE
OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5-10
KNOTS DURING MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY ONWARD...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH
A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/PERIODS
OF RAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF DRY SPELLS
POSSIBLE. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
TURBULENCE/MTN WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...HANSON/SLW
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS






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