Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 032050
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
450 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.
BEHIND THIS FRONT SEASONABLY COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY
AUGUST NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 441 PM EDT MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #466 IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 PM EDT FOR MOST OF VERMONT AND ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK.

LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW CENTERED VICINITY OF JAMES BAY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER
LOW WILL GRADUALLY USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. BUT
IN THE MEANTIME...VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE...WHILE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AIDING IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...WHILE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED FROM CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS
VERMONT WHERE SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS REST OF VERMONT THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH SOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON...AS ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH TILL
TONIGHT WESTERN ZONES AND LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY EAST. WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL TROPOSPHERIC FLOW NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SLOWLY
ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR WEST...LINEAR BOWING SEGMENTS REMAIN
THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AND DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALSO NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WHERE
ANY TRAINING OF STORMS OCCUR.

CONVECTION WILL DECREASE LATER ON THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. COULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
INTO THE REGION...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 OR VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 441 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND SAGS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVER TIME.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE PRIOR TRENDS IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE ARRIVAL TIMES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN INSTABILITY IS GREATEST...AND
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHERN
AREAS BOTH DAYS...MAINLY IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH GREATEST
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING COOLER
WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND MAINLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 441 PM EDT MONDAY... PERSISTENCE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION ALBEIT LESSENING INTENSITY AS WE GET TO LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

PRETTY UNEVENTFUL...COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH AUGUST SUN WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO INSTABILITY AND LOW THREAT OF ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM FRI/FRI NGT BUT
STILL LEANING THAT WE`LL BE ON NORTHERN EDGE AT WORST...THUS KEEPING
MAINLY DRY FROM THIS SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE AOB SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT ONLY A FEW
DEGREES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/40S COLD
SPOTS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR IN
VCNTY OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18-24Z. IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK
BETWEEN 07-12Z TUE.

SCT -SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA AFT 16Z TUE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.

SSW WINDS 10-20 KTS THRU 22-24Z THEN LGT BETWEEN 00-12Z THEN SW/W AT
10 KNOTS AFT 12Z TUE.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG



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