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000
FXUS61 KBTV 200210
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1010 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1009 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 713 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW DEW POINTS. THIS COMBINATION
WILL CREATE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 40S AND EVEN
SOME 30S LIKELY IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY. OUR LOCAL COLD SPOT OF SARANAC LAKE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO DROP AS LOW AS 30 DEGREES...THUS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDEST AREAS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FROST
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. SOME RECORD LOWS MAY BE APPROACHED...SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. OTHERWISE...WILL LIKELY ALSO SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 414 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY AND
AROUND 80 ON FRIDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BE WARMER EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 414 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN ANTICIPATED
WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG
WITH INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME
INDIVIDUAL PIECES S/W ENERGY IN FAST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW
ALOFT...AND POSITION OF BEST RH IN DAYS 4 THRU 7. IN
ADDITION...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO REGARDS OF SFC WARM FRNT
POSITION SAT/SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS
SHOWING THE BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA AND VERY WARM 85/925MB
TEMPS...WHILE ECWMF/GEM SHOWS THE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACRS OUR CWA
THRU SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH BY MONDAY. WL TREND TWD THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH SHOW 925MB TEMPS
BTWN 16-18C ON SAT/SUN...INSTEAD OF THE GFS WHICH INDICATES TEMPS
BTWN 22-24C...THESE COOLER TEMPS WL RESULT IN HIGHS L/M 70S MTNS
TO U70S TO L80S WARMER VALLEYS. THE COMBINATION OF SFC
BOUNDARY...S/W ENERGY ALOFT...AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY WL PRODUCE THE CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. HIGHEST CHC
POPS ATTM LOOKS TO BE LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER SFC WARM
FRNT LIFTS NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL CHCS
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED. GIVEN THE WAA SIGNATURE IN THE
THICKNESS FIELDS AND S/W ENERGY SLIDING OVER DEVELOPING
RIDGE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A MCS DEVELOPS ACRS THE NORTHERN
LAKES AND SLIDES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF RIDGE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. FOR MONDAY...TYPICAL AIRMASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...FROM SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY AND WEAK S/W ENERGY RIDING
ALONG PERIPHERY OF RIDGE. WL KEEP LOW CHC POPS IN FCST TO COVERAGE
POTENTIAL FOR AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS. TUES INTO WEDS...WEAK
RIDGE BREAKS DOWNS...AS S/W TROF DEVELOPS ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS...COLD FRONT APPROACHING
AND INTERACTING WITH INSTABILITY WL PRODUCE MORE CHCS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. OVERALL ACTIVE TIME PERIOD ANTICIPATED WITH DAILY
CHCS FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF AGREE
MON/TUES WL BE THE WARMEST WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S...AND
MAYBE A FEW L90S IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL CREST OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT BRINGING LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK
06-12Z...THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER IS DRIER THAN YESTERDAY AND IT WILL
BE MORE DIFFICULT TO REACH CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS SE 7-10KTS AT KRUT OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AREA
SHIFTS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS.
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONT FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING...ALONG WITH THE CHCS FOR SHOWERS BY LATE FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WARM FRNT. THE CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WL
CONT OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED...BUT MVFR WL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WL BE DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS
BTWN 17Z-23Z EACH DAY. IF A STORM IMPACTS A TAF SITE AND SOME RAIN
OCCURS...PATCHY FOG WOULD BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY MORNING HRS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A FEW RECORD LOWS FOR JUNE 20TH MAY BE APPROACHED OR REACHED TONIGHT.

KMPV (MONTPELIER)- 40F (1956,1948)
KMSS (MASSENA)- 40F (1967)

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS/TABER
CLIMATE...WFO BTV