Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 301751

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
151 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Low humidity levels, partly to mostly sunny skies, and pleasantly
warm temperatures will characterize Saturday, as Canadian high
pressure controls our weather through tonight. Thereafter, a slow
moving upper level disturbance and associated rich moisture moving
out of the Ohio Valley will bring periods of rain showers Sunday
into Monday, possible lingering into early Tuesday. High
temperatures will reach the low 80s today, but then generally in
the low to mid 70s for the Sunday through Tuesday time frame with
abundant cloudiness. High pressure returns Wednesday through
Friday with warmer and more humid conditions.


As of 140 PM EDT Saturday...Tranquil and pleasant weather
conditions through the rest near-term period. Dry northerly low-
level airstream continues east of 925mb anticyclone centered
across swrn Quebec. This will continue to provide the North
Country with relatively low humidity (2-m dewpoints in the 50s)
today. Mid-upper level clouds streaming enewd ahead of Ohio
Valley trough are staring to dissipate in the nid afternoon hours
but will still provide filtered sun especially over the srn half
of the forecast area. With 850mb temps of +11C to +13C at 21Z per
00Z GFS, looking for highs generally in the upr 70s to lower 80s.
10-meter winds generally N 5-9 mph, except locally NE across far
nrn NY. PoPs NIL.

Continued quiet tonight, though will see some mid level clouds
(8-10 KFT) increasing from SW-NE after midnight as slow-moving
500mb trough shifts newd from OH into PA/wrn NY. Included slight
chance of showers s-central VT toward 12Z Sunday, but most likely
scenario is that associated shower activity remains south of the
entire forecast area until during the day Sunday. Overnight lows
mid-upr 50s, except locally around 60F s-central VT valleys where
clouds inhibit radiative cooling. Some patchy valley fog is
possible nrn valleys after 06Z Sunday.


As of 354 AM EDT Saturday...The 00z suite of guidance remains
consistent with the general idea of a broad slow moving upper
level trough crossing the Great Lakes region Sunday afternoon into
the North Country by late Monday. The surface low that develops
will be south of the forecast area but guidance is still quite
disparate between solutions. Where the surface low sets up and the
convergence boundary develops will have dramatic effects on the
area that ends up being the bulls eye for precip. The GFS and GEM
models have a 2-3 inch bulls eye along the Saint Lawrence river
where as the ECMWF has the 3 inch bulls eye over the MA/CT/NY
border, and the NAM has a 2 inch hot spot over near Binghamton NY.
So in essence, its still a bit difficult to pin point where the
heaviest rain will fall. So I went with a consensus blend of 50%
new guidance and 50% previous forecast to trend the QPF towards
the latest guidance. I ended up with a broad 1-2inch swath of
precip across much of the area from Sunday afternoon into Monday.

With that moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall, there will be
some ponding of water in low lying areas and in areas of poor
drainage. Given the lack of continuity in location, I dont have
confidence in any sort of flood hazards especially due to the
potential for much of the precip to fall over areas in drought

Temps will warm into the mid to upper 70s and with dewpoints in
the upper 50s to near 60, instability isn`t great. As such I
continued the idea of mainly rain showers with an isolated chance
of thunder across the area. Overnight lows will be warmer with the
rainfall but are still expected to drop into the mid 60s. With
precip still falling and overcast skies expected, Monday should
be below normal with highs only in the upper 60s to low 70s.


As of 404 AM EDT Saturday...Early in the morning Tuesday there
may be a few lingering wrap around rain showers as the trough
swings through. Northerly to northwesterly winds should keep much
of the precip isolated to higher terrain locations. Then by mid
week a ridge builds in and heights rise. 925mb temps warm
throughout and by Thursday they are in the 24-26C range based on a
warm GFS solution. That may be a tad overdone but even so thats
supportive of max temps Thursday and Friday into the lower to mid 90s.
With that trend continuing from both the previous 00z and 12z
forecasts I continued to trend warmer in the extended by bumping
up our locally produced "Superblend" of models to show max temps
each day in the upper 80s to near 90 in the CT river valley.


.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions will persist through most of
the period. High and mid-level clouds are filtering from the south
but most are dissipating as they move into the region. Overnight
increased moisture will bring lower VFR ceilings. If ceilings
don`t not move in fast enough, there is potential for overnight IFR
fog at MPV. Have decided to leave out the mention in the TAFs for
now. Showers will move slowly in late into the period into the
southern stations after 15Z. Winds will be light and variable for
the period.

Outlook 18z Sunday through Wednesday...

18z Sunday-00z Tuesday: Intervals of MVFR in shower activity
Sunday afternoon through Monday with slow moving upper trough.

00Z Tuesday through Wednesday: Upper trough brings lingering
showers Monday night into early Tuesday with periods of MVFR and
brief IFR possible. Then clearing with VFR conditions as high
pressure returns Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. May see
areas of nocturnal fog 06-12Z Wednesday SLK/MPV with localized
LIFR conditions.




NEAR TERM...Banacos/MV
AVIATION...Banacos/MV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.