Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 012325
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
725 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...THOUGH LINGERING PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY. UNDER OVERCAST
SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 40S
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 55 TO 60 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. AFTER
A FOGGY START EARLY WEDNESDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY
COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 652 PM EDT MONDAY...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE
GOING FORECAST. I`VE TRIED TO SHOW AN EVEN SLOWER LOWERING TREND
IN TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH THIS UPDATE, AS WELL AS RAISED MIN
TEMPS. LITTLE IF ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE PRESENCE OF
PERSISTENT OVERCAST, AND THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT THERMAL OR
MOISTURE ADVECTION ESSENTIALLY MEANS TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL STAY
CLOSE TO OR FALL ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY INTO THE REST OF THE EVENING.
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE STILL CONTINUES, WITH EXCEPTION FOR THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY UP TO THIS POINT IN THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER,
SHORT- RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS IS TEMPORARY AND WILL FILL
BACK IN ACROSS THIS AREA AS UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO PIVOTS TOWARD
THE REGION. THEREFORE, FELT CHANGES TO POPS/WX WERE NOT NECESSARY.
MIN TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES USING A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE BIAS- CORRECTED GUIDANCE, YIEIDING LOWS M40S TO AROUND
50.

PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSION ISSUED AT 256 PM MONDAY FOLLOWS...

COOL AIR MASS (AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S) REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
WEAK SURFACE LOW FROM NRN VIRGINIA NWD ACROSS CENTRAL PA INTO
CENTRAL NY...WITH REGIONAL COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY SHOWING BANDS OF
LIGHT RAIN GENERALLY EAST OF THE INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND ACROSS NRN VT AT 18Z. PRECIPITATION RATES (AND
AREAL COVERAGE) GRADUALLY LESSENING WITH DRIER MID- LEVEL AIR AND
WEAKENING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. AS FORCING CONTINUES TO
LESSEN...WILL SEE THESE DOWNWARD TRENDS CONTINUE. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS TONIGHT...BUT QPF AMTS GENERALLY 0.05-0.15"
RANGE...AND LOCALLY NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS
WILL END THE THREAT OF FLOODING AND HAVE DROPPED THE FLOOD WATCH
AS OF MID-AFTERNOON (SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS).
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH WITH STRATUS AND LIGHT E-NE FLOW
IN PLACE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER
40S...ONLY DROPPING 5-8 DEGREES FROM AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT MONDAY...IT APPEARS THE LOW-LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS ERN NY DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WILL SEE CLOSED 500MB LOW...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE GREAT
LKS...ROTATE EWD AND PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING...MID-LEVEL DRYING AND LOSS OF SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTN. WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR
OUT STRATUS LAYER...SO ANTICIPATE CLOUDY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. CLOUDS AND NORTH WINDS (5-10
MPH) WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING ONCE AGAIN...YIELDING HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 55-60F. MAY SEE A FEW LOWER 60S IN
THE SRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND FOR PORTIONS OF SWRN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY. FOR POPS...INDICATED CHANCE 40-50 PERCENT IN THE
MORNING...GRADUALLY DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.

SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WILL SEE SURFACE RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM SWRN QUEBEC AND SERN ONTARIO.
THE COMBINATION OF DIMINISHING WIND...CLEARING SKIES...AND THE AMPLE
RAINFALL RECENTLY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION...WHICH COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS BETWEEN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...BUT
A FEW SPOTS IN FAR NERN VERMONT AND WITHIN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACK
REGION COULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE FOG SHOULD PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH OF A BRAKE ON FALLING TEMPS THAT FROST APPEARS UNLIKELY
IN THOSE OUTLYING AREAS ATTM.

SHOULD SEE FOG AND LINGERING STRATUS ERODE DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...AND SHOULD TREND MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MOS
CONSENSUS...AS MIXING LOOKS A BIT TOO SHALLOW IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
(PERHAPS DUE TO WET GROUND). WITH 850MB TEMPS +7 TO +9C...HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S LOOK BEST.

CONTINUED QUIET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PW VALUES <0.5IN AND 1000-500MB
RH VALUES LESS THAN 30 PERCENT IN 12Z GFS. LIGHT WINDS WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL NOCTURNAL FOG...BUT
SHOULDN/T BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S...BUT LOCALLY NEAR 40F AT SARANAC LAKE AND FAR NERN
VERMONT. POPS NIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 316 PM EDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THURSDAY DRY, BUT
THEN SLIDES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC/HUDSONS BAY AREA, BRINGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY WILL SEE A DRYING TREND AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT DRY PERIOD
TO LAST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIPITATION MAY
MOVE IN AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW TRIES TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE INTERACTION OF THESE
2 SYSTEMS WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
BEGINNING TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF MODEL DISCREPANCIES AT
THIS POINT, SO WILL JUST KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR DEPENDING ON LOCALE
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PATCHY -RA/DZ CONTINUES ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF OCCNL IFR TO OCCUR AT KSLK/KMPV
WITH MODEST CONFIDENCE AT KPBG/KMSS. KBTV/KRUT TO REMAIN LARGELY
MVFR/VFR. WINDS GENERALLY EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY AT 3-7 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. AFTER 12Z TUESDAY CONDITIONS REMAIN CLOUDS BUT CIGS
SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR AT ALL TERMINALS OVER TIME. COULD STILL
SEE SOME INTERMITTENT/PATCHY -RA/DZ BUT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR
DRYING AFTER 18Z AS WINDS TREND LIGHT NORTHERLY.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. EXCEPTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT
ALL TERMINALS IN THE 02-13Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

12Z FRIDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RIVERS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE
THIS EVENING AS PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. THE EAST
BRANCH OF THE AUSABLE RIVER BRIEFLY REACHED JUST ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AT 7.0 FEET. THE MAD RIVER AT
MORETOWN (MOOV1) BRIEFLY REACHED ACTION STAGE (BETWEEN 8-9
FEET)...BUT HAS SINCE FALLEN BELOW 8 FEET AND SHOULD CONTINUE
DOWNWARD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TOTAL RUNOFF IN THE CHAMPLAIN
BASIN SHOULD RESULT IN LAKE CHAMPLAIN RISES FROM AROUND 96.5 FEET
UP TO 96.8 FEET BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG/KGM
HYDROLOGY...BANACOS


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