Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 012013
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
313 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT
TO ACROSS LONG ISLAND SOUND ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
BEGINNING IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE MONDAY
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. SEASONABLY TO UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 304 PM EST SUNDAY...HEALTHY LOOKING SYSTEM ON WATER VAPOR
AND COMPOSITE RADAR WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND STRONG ISENTROPHIC
LIFT FORMATION IN CLOUDS/MOISTURE STREAMING TOWARD NY/VT.

HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY STREAMING INTO NY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL ARRIVE IN
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...REACHING
ADIRONDACKS/CENTRAL VERMONT PRIOR TO MORNING COMMUTE AND ACROSS ALL
OF NY/VT AROUND OF JUST AFTER MORNING COMMUTE.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT...FALLING EARLY
THEN RISING FROM SW TO NE AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ADVANCE...
STILL MANY PLACES AT OR BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 304 PM EST SUNDAY...PRETTY GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT IN ALL ASPECTS...INCLUDING A FURTHER NORTH TRACK AND
GREATER QPF FIELD MOVING NORTH INTO MUCH OF VT/NY.

IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING ACROSS REGION ON
MONDAY WITH DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROF STILL POSIVTIVE BUT TRYING TO
GO NEGATIVE IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW. H7 LOW MOVING ACROSS VT/NY ALONG
WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH.

AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER ANNOUNCED...AREAS OF STRONG DEFORMATION
SPREADING INTO MUCH OF VT/NY...STRONG WAA ALOFT, COMBINES WITH
STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. LIFT WILL BE
ENHANCED/AIDED BY SMALL JET STREAK AT 250MB OF 100+KTS MOVING OVER
THE AREA. PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY DOUBLE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN
FOR EARLY FEBRUARY MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME WITH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

SNOWFALL AMTS TO RANGE FROM 8-14" FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES
IN VERMONT 5-10" ACROSS MUCH OF THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
INTO SRN CALEDONIA COUNTY...AND THEN 4-7" ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.

ADDITIONAL WARNINGS WERE ISSUED AT 1 PM AS WELL AS WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES.

IT WILL BE COLD AS WELL WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND
SUB-ZERO MONDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...THUS 10 TO 20
BELOW WIND CHILLS MONDAY AND POSSIBLY 20 TO 30 BELOW WIND CHILLS
MONDAY NIGHT.

NO HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILLS BUT MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

LOW WILL DEPART TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE...TAPERING OFF SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH GFS LINGERING SNOW ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT A
LITTLE PAST 06Z TUESDAY. RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR
TUESDAY DURING THE DAY WITH ANOTHER COLD DAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS.

RETURN FLOW LATE TUESDAY AND WESTERLY UPPER FLOW AS IT BEGINS TO
BACK IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEEPER TROUGH FOR LATE WED/THU WILL MEAN
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM FOR WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EST SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY IN DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION. ALSO...MODELS SHOWING
SOME LAKE EFFECT CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE ONTARIO IS LIKELY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE RAISED POPS OUT
THERE. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. THIS CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SNOWFALL. HAVE TIMED SNOW MOVING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY WITH MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED AT TIMES. IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM 12Z ONWARD.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY-06Z TUESDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.

06Z TUESDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...BECOMING VFR.

12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH
CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA.

12Z THURSDAY-00Z FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ028>031-034-035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ026-027-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...KGM/SLW
SHORT TERM...BANACOS/KGM/SLW
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...NEILES



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