Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 041928
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
328 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY OVER
REGION. HAVE NOTED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THICKNESS VALUES AND TEMP
PROFILES COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...BUT TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR.
EXPECT A STRONG THERMAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP WITH COOLEST READINGS
IN THE DEEPER/PROTECTED VALLEYS...WITH WARMER TEMPS ON THE
MIDSLOPES AND RIDGETOPS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 40F AT
SLK/COLDER VALLEYS OF THE NEK TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN
SHORELINE. LATEST RAP CONTS TO SHOW A DEVELOPING 975MB JET OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS NORTHERN NY TONIGHT...WHICH MAY KEEP ATMOSPHERE
A LITTLE MIXED AND PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. BEST CHC OF FOG
WILL BE CENTRAL/EASTERN VALLEYS OF VT AFT 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED AS
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NE CONUS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. STILL
WATCHING A WEAK INITIAL 5H VORT AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF MOISTURE
THAT IMPACTS OUR WESTERN CWA ON SUNDAY AFTN. SYSTEM HAS LIMITED
FORCING AND IS RUNNING INTO A STRONG RIDGE WITH LOTS OF DRY
AIR...SO WILL KEEP VERY ISOLATED CHANCES FOR AN AFTN SHOWER OVER
NORTHERN NY. THINKING IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS...IT WILL OCCUR OVER
THE TRRN...DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTN HOURS. NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOW CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH
SPEEDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS FROM 850 TO 500MB ON SUNDAY
AFTN...AS PWS APPROACH 1.75 INCHES. FORCING AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH AREAL COVERAGE OR INTENSITY OF
PRECIP.

OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT ON SATURDAY AND
PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPS. PROGGED
85H TEMPS BTWN 14 AND 16C SUPPORT HIGHS UPPER 70S MTNS TOWNS TO MID
80S WARMER VALLEYS LOCATIONS LIKE BTV/VSF AND MSS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN...EXCEPT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY
EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT HIGHER DWPTS BACK INTO OUR REGION BY
SUNDAY...WITH SOME INCREASE IN HUMIDITY VALUES LIKELY. TEMPS SAT
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S MTNS VALLEYS TO LOWER/MID 60S CPV
AND URBAN AREAS. ON SUNDAY PROGGED 85H TEMPS ARE NEAR 16C SUPPORTING
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 5 TO 15
MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL START OUT WITH A DRY AND WARM DAY FOR LABOR DAY. GFS MODEL
HINTS AT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A DRY DAY
FOR LABOR DAY. THUS...HAVE STUCK WITH THE LOW SUPERBLEND POPS FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE GFS MODEL AGAIN HINTING AT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS IT DRY AND KEEPS ANY
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE REGION IN CANADA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT LOWER THAN SUPERBLEND POPS ON TUESDAY AND
JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BRINGING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION. THUS...HAVE STAYED WITH SUPERBLEND POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SUGGESTING A DRIER FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...SO
HAVE LOWERED SUPERBLEND POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20
PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING
MOISTURE RETURNING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...SO HAVE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. SATELLITE LOOP JUST SHOWING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OR JUST A FEW HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO
FORM IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT MAINLY FROM 05Z SATURDAY UNTIL 14Z SATURDAY.
ALSO EXPECTING SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AFTER 06Z SATURDAY UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SAT-00Z TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR VLIFR/IFR FG/BR LIKELY AT
KSLK/KMPV 06Z-13Z EACH MORNING.

00Z TUE-00Z THU...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH



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