Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 010849

349 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2014

Issued at 347 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

Typical autumn weather is in store for much of the forecast period
with the coolest day occurring today as temps remain approximately 10
degrees below normal for this time of year. However, as surface high
pressure moseys eastward into the Ohio Valley, southerly flow will
return once more by later tonight, bringing warmer temps back in.
Therefore, look for lows tonight to certainly be warmer than this
morning, ranging from the low to mid 30s. From Sunday onward, 50s to
60s will be the general trend with lows in the 30s and 40s.

Low PWAT values and 500mb ridge axis traversing through over the
latter half of the weekend will allow for benign weather to remain
settled in until early next week. Excellent moisture transport
advecting in from the south, upper-level jet, height falls, and
surface front all come together Monday into Tuesday, yielding good
rain chances for the forecast area. Could hear some rumbles of
thunder Monday into Monday night as just a bit of instability
accompanies the disturbance. General deterministic/ensemble model
guidance suggests the precip clearing central MO by late Tuesday
night, returning to a quiet weather period. By late in the week,
however, significant 00Z model disagreements come into view by
Friday, leaving a relatively low confidence forecast in place for
the early part of next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

VFR conditions to prevail at all four TAF sites throughout this
forecast period. However, STJ has the continued potential of seeing
some shallow fog/haze through the early morning period as much colder
air temperatures interact with the warmer surrounding bodies of water
near the terminal.

Cirrus currently beginning to move into NW MO will stream overhead
through Saturday. By midday Sat., could see some more mid-level
clouds enter into the skies. With respect to winds, look for light
E-ENE winds becoming more southerly by later in the day, increasing
to around 10-15 knots.


KS...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ025-057-060-

MO...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001>008-



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