Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 302035
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
335 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms this afternoon have been limited to the
northeastern part of the forecast area - generally northeast of a
Sherman to Emory line where there is an area of higher
Precipitable Water values. The cumulus fields across the rest of
the forecast area have been pretty flat. Outside of the
northeastern zones, it has been mostly sunny this afternoon with
temperatures in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees.

Low thunderstorm chances will end before sunset...leaving mostly
clear skies overnight. Lows will be in the mid 70s to around 80
degrees. An upper level ridge will dominate the weather across
North and Central Texas Sunday through the end of the work week.
This will lead to mostly sunny and hot days and clear warm nights.
Highs will be in the mid 90s to 103 degrees and lows will be in
the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. At this time, it looks like
dewpoints will mix out enough to keep heat indices below heat
advisory through Tuesday. For the Wednesday through Friday
period, much of the forecast area that is along and east of the
I-35 corridor will be borderline for a Heat Advisory with maximum
heat index values climbing to around 105 degrees.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 106 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/
/18z TAFs/ Primarily a VFR forecast for North Texas, but isolated
shower/thunderstorm development is possible through 01z this
evening. A weak upper level shear axis extends from near KGAG to
KMAF, leaving most of the region under a broad southwesterly flow
regime with weak ascent occurring. Analyses depict a band of
slightly enhanced moisture, convergence, and instability extending
from near KABI eastward through KDFW to KPRX. Developing cumulus
field in visible satellite imagery validates this, though the
greatest enhancement appears well northeast and southwest of the
Metroplex.

Have started off the 18z TAFs without mention of VCTS, and
seriously doubt the convective ingredients will be sufficient to
form anything more than isolated activity within the D10 Tracon.
Having said that, may need to re-insert mention if the scattered
activity east of the Bonham corner post begins developing westward
linearily toward the Metroplex in any meaningful way.

Any isolated convection that forms this afternoon should die a
quick death after 01z. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail
tonight/Sunday, with even less convection expected tomorrow than
today.

Bradshaw


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  99  79 100  79 /  10  10   5   5   5
Waco                77  99  77 100  76 /  10  10   5   5   0
Paris               76  97  76  97  76 /  20  10   5   5   5
Denton              77  98  77  99  76 /  10   5   5   5   5
McKinney            77  99  77  99  76 /  10  10   5   5   5
Dallas              80  99  80 100  80 /  10  10   5   5   5
Terrell             77  99  77  99  76 /  10  10   5   5   5
Corsicana           77  99  77  99  77 /  10  10   5   5   5
Temple              76  98  75  99  75 /  10  10   5   5   0
Mineral Wells       76  98  75  99  74 /  10   5   5   5   0

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

66/58


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