Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 030027 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
727 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CIGS STILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS BUT THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING
EASTERLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PERSIST AT THE
SURFACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
FORCING TRAILING SOUTHWEST IN BEHIND A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAS PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW WEAK
SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THIS ACTIVITY WAS RELATIVELY WEAK
AND NOT PRODUCING ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS ANY ONE AREA.

NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGER
SCALE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STREAM SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
TUESDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHWEST TEXAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN EXIT THE REGION TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THESE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW TYPE OF
DISTURBANCES WITH MINIMAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE CAN SOMETIMES
SURPRISE YOU WHEN ADEQUATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ALOFT.

SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS WANT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED HIGH-BASED/ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN DISSIPATE ACTIVITY BY NIGHTFALL TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
TTU WRF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON SEVERAL RUNS NOW OF CONTINUING ANY
CONVECTION INTO OUR NORTHWEST CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY.
I TEND TO AGREE WITH THE TTU SOLUTION BECAUSE THE SHORTWAVE WILL
BE FAIRLY STRONG AND HAVE THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...7 DEG/C KM LAPSE
RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES =< 400 J/KG TO WORK UPON AS IT ENTERS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...HAVE ONLY ADVERTISED 20-30
PERCENT COVERAGE FROM FORT WORTH TOWARD BOWIE AND BRECKENRIDGE.
THESE AREAS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE BETTER FORCING AND HAVE THE
BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AT PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY...SO WE DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL BUT
FEEL A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY COLD
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE WITH THE FRONT WITH BREEZY
NORTH WINDS AND HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AS A STOUT
FULL LATITUDE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL GIVE THE AREA A CHANCE TO
FINALLY DRY OUT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN LATE THIS WEEK SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD NEXT SUNDAY AND
INTO THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
FETCHING RICH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN CAPPED ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTENING OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ACROSS
THESE AREAS. THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY OPEN NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND ALLOW FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF
STORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THOUGH SEVERE
WEATHER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT IT/S EARLY MAY...MANY
ENVIRONMENTAL AND SYNOPTIC DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED
BEFORE ONE CAN SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE THE MAGNITUDE OR COVERAGE
OF STORMS AND ANY HEAVY RAINFALL. ENJOY THE COOLER AND DRY
WEATHER THIS WEEK...AS THE HUMIDITY RETURNS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    50  74  56  82  57 /   5   0  10   0   0
WACO                49  74  52  81  55 /  10   0   5   0   0
PARIS               48  71  53  79  53 /   5   0  10   0   0
DENTON              46  73  52  82  54 /   5   5  20   0   0
MCKINNEY            47  72  53  80  54 /   5   0  10   0   0
DALLAS              51  74  57  82  58 /   5   0  10   0   0
TERRELL             49  72  54  80  55 /  10   0   5   0   0
CORSICANA           50  73  54  80  55 /  10   0   5   0   0
TEMPLE              49  74  51  81  55 /  10   0   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       46  74  50  82  53 /   5  10  20   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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