Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 211942
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
242 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WILL CROSS
THE RED RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TURN TO
THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
SUBTLE. MOISTURE OVER NORTH TEXAS IS VERY LIMITED TODAY...AND THE
HIGHER MOISTURE ACTUALLY EXISTS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE
SOME CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER OKLAHOMA. DUE TO WEAK FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PROSPECTS FOR
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT LOOK BLEAK. IN GENERAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS DRY WITH THE FRONT...EXCEPT FOR A FEW OF THE WRF MODELS WHICH
HAVE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER THIS EVENING. WE DO
EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND IT MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH BEFORE
DISSIPATING TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN ZONES. WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES...WITH A SILENT 10
POP ELSEWHERE. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
NEAR 10 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT...RESULTING IN SOME WEAK COLD
ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOW 60S
NORTH...BUT HOLDING IN THE LOW 70S SOUTH.

SOME LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES
TOMORROW...AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING THERE.
OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND TOP OUT IN THE
LOW 80S NORTH TO AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY INFILTRATE THE REGION TOMORROW AND INTO TUESDAY.

A STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND MEANS WE WILL SEE TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAIL FOR SEVERAL
DAYS BEHIND THE FRONT. A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH SOME PLEASANTLY COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
ON THE WARM SIDE...GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S...BUT
MODERATING TO NEAR 90 BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1242 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WILL REACH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
THIS EVENING AND WACO OVERNIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE AT 7-12 KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL NOT
MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION OR CONVECTION IN THE TAFS AS CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT THE TAF SITES
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT.

82/JLD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  86  62  85  61 /  10   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              69  89  62  86  58 /  10  10   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             61  81  57  80  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            63  84  58  84  57 /  20   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          63  85  55  83  53 /  20   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            67  86  63  85  62 /  10   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           67  86  58  84  58 /  10   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         69  88  61  85  59 /  10   5   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            69  90  62  86  59 /  10  20   5   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  86  59  85  57 /  20   5   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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