Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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271
FXUS64 KFWD 282237 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
537 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through 06Z Tuesday. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by midday Monday
across North Texas but the chances at the TAF sites are too low
to include at this time. Southeast winds around 10 knots at TAF
issuance time will become east 5 to 10 knots overnight and
northeast 5 to 10 knots Monday morning.

At Waco...Some 5SM BR BKN015 is possible again between 12 and 16z
Monday; Otherwise, expect mostly VFR conditions. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop late Monday morning
across Central Texas and continue into the early evening hours.
For now will just place VCSH starting at 18z. East winds 5 to 10
knots will become northeast Monday morning.

58

&&


.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances will remain in the forecast over the next 5 to 7 days
across a good portion of North and Central TX. High temperatures
in the 80s and 90s will continue with overnight lows in the 70s.
The upcoming Labor Day Weekend will feature some low rain chances
for some on Friday and Saturday, but mostly dry conditions are
expected for the remainder of the holiday weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday)...
An uptick in convection is expected through the remainder of the
afternoon and into the early evening hours, especially for areas
near and east of the I-35 corridor. The nose of very moist air as
observed by total blended PWAT products/RAP mesoanalysis was just
now beginning to impinge on the Piney Woods of east TX this
afternoon. With generally easterly flow induced by the OH River
Valley ridge of high pressure and the upper low along the TX
Coast...additional lobes of vorticity, fairly moist air and
subsequent showers/storms will continue to invade eastern portions
of North and Central TX. Widespread severe weather is not
expected, but the strongest storms will be capable of gusty
outflow winds and brief bouts of heavy rain. Elsewhere, slightly
lower rain chances will exist with little in the way of forcing,
outside of daytime heating, to promote the development of
widespread showers and storms.

For tonight---most activity should begin to decay with the loss
of daytime heating. There could be some remnant lift along old
outflow and/or weak ascent with meager mid-level vort lobes, but
the coverage of convection should be fairly isolated. Overnight
low temperatures should be a degree or two warmer than previous
nights as the atmospheric moisture content increases, especially
across the east. Similar to this morning, there may be some very
patchy shallow fog across North and Central TX, but with
visibility expected to remain near or above 5 miles, I`ve not
included in the forecast at this time.

For Monday---Models indicate that a few perturbations will
continue in the generally easterly flow. With the moist
environment in place, daytime heating will only need to be aided
by modest ascent to generate scattered convection. That being
said, it would appear that most of the global models are a bit too
aggressive with the overall coverage of convection. Most CAMs,
most notably the TTU WRF, offer slightly more realistic solutions
and as a result, I`ll maintain slight chance to chance PoPs
across just about all of North and Central TX. The better rain
chances will generally fall along and south of a Comanche to Waco
to Centerville line on Monday closest to the track of the mid-
level vort max. While easterly flow will continue for areas to the
north, it appears that the OH River Valley ridge will slide
towards the west and south. This may induce subsidence resulting
in a lower coverage of showers and storms.

For Tuesday---Rain chances will continue on Tuesday with more
east/southeasterly flow. Most models are in general agreement
with repositioning the H5 ridge across the Ozarks/Central Plains
on Tuesday and Tuesday afternoon closer to North Texas. This
should further limit the overall coverage of showers and
thunderstorms with the best chances being across Central TX. High
temperatures should climb towards the mid-90s on Tuesday across
the northeastern two-thirds of the area with upper 80s and lower
90s elsewhere (due to increased cloud cover and rain).

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Saturday)...
For Wednesday---I`ve inserted slight chance PoPs across the entire
area. There may be a slightly higher potential for rain across far
southwestern/southern zones where the influence of the ridge
appears to be smallest. This portion of the forecast will likely
be re-visited in the future as models have shown a subtle trend of
weakening the ridge a bit quicker than previous runs. If these
trends continue, higher rain chances may be warranted. Otherwise,
widespread 90 degree heat should return to nearly all of North and
Central TX.

For Thursday and Friday---A fairly diffuse trough will slide
southward out of the High Plains. This should help to effectively
end the influence of the dwindling ridge across the region. With
the moist environment and some weak synoptic scale ascent ahead of
the trough, there does appear to be another chance for rain,
especially north of I-20 on Thursday. The GFS is fairly aggressive
with regards to building a large high in the wake of the trough on
Thursday into Friday. Right now this solution seems a bit
aggressive and the current forecast will be more in line with the
12 UTC ECMWF. Ultimately, this means that there will be the
potential for isolated to scattered showers/storms on Thursday and
Friday.

For Saturday and Sunday---It appears that the mid/upper ridge will
settle in across the Ozarks on Saturday and Sunday. Unfortunately,
models diverge on the overall strength of the mid-level ridge. The
ECMWF remains much less aggressive than the GFS with regards to
how quickly it builds the ridge. Ultimately, this means that the
potential exists for a wet holiday weekend, if the ECMWF is to be
believed. The GFS on the other hand, continues to be fairly
aggressive with its solution with a large and expansive H5 high
and thus mostly dry conditions. We will keep a close eye on this
portion of the forecast as there will likely be a multitude of
outdoor events and festivities during this time frame.

24-Bain

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  93  74  93  76 /  30  20  10  20  10
Waco                73  90  72  92  74 /  30  40  20  20  10
Paris               72  93  72  93  73 /  40  20  10  20  10
Denton              73  92  72  93  73 /  30  20  10  20  10
McKinney            73  92  72  93  74 /  30  20  10  20  10
Dallas              75  93  76  93  77 /  30  20  10  20  10
Terrell             73  91  74  94  74 /  40  20  10  20  10
Corsicana           74  90  74  93  75 /  40  30  20  20  10
Temple              72  89  71  91  73 /  30  40  30  30  20
Mineral Wells       72  90  71  92  72 /  20  30  10  20  10

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

58/90



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