Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 021106 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
606 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THIS TAF
CYCLE. SOME STRANDS OF STRATUS ARE OCCURRING AROUND KACT THIS
MORNING WHICH MAY BRIEFLY RESULT IN BKN CONDITIONS AT TIMES. SOME
STRATUS MAY AFFECT KACT AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING AND MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A MENTION OF MVFR CIGS AT KACT IN A FUTURE TAF ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 5-7 KFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KTS
WITH ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A
STRAY SHOWER MAY APPROACH KACT OR KDAL FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING BUT THE POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE TAF.

JLDUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
MOISTURE AND WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON THE SEA BREEZE FRONT. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHEAST ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS EVEN POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.

THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE HOT AND GENERALLY
RAIN-FREE WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S AND LOWS IN THE
70S.

SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RETURN TO NORTH TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK ONCE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE RED RIVER. THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS
BOTH BRING THE FRONT THROUGH NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
THE ECWMF SOLUTION KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND BRINGS SOME DECENT RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION THURSDAY. THE
GFS KEEPS NORTH TEXAS MORE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AND HAS MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  95  75  96  77  96 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              95  72  95  74  97 /  10  10  10   5  10
PARIS, TX             94  70  95  72  94 /  10   5  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            94  73  94  74  97 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          94  72  95  74  96 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            95  76  96  77  97 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           94  73  95  75  97 /  10   5  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         94  73  96  74  97 /  10  10  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            93  70  94  72  95 /  20  10  20   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     96  70  95  72  97 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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