Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 020740
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
240 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE MONDAY EVENING CONVECTION IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS
DISSIPATED BUT SOME REMNANT VORTICITY FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WEAK LIFT COMBINED WITH A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS MAY RESULT IN A STRAY SHOWER/STORM
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. HAVE RETAINED THE MENTION OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST...BUT HAVE DROPPED POPS TO 10 PERCENT BASED ON MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE COMING IN A LITTLE DRIER. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER GENERALLY
NICE DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...LOTS OF
SUNSHINE...AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITY STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IT WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST AND
PARK ITSELF OVER TEXAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S BY THE WEEKEND.
THE RECENT RAINFALL AND SOGGY SOILS WILL HELP TO ADD MOISTURE TO
THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS THROUGH EVAPORATION...RESULTING IN HIGHER
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AND HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...THE AIRMASS WILL
BE STRONGLY CAPPED AND GENERALLY SUBSIDENT...SO OPPORTUNITIES FOR
RAIN LOOK MINIMAL. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND SLIDING OFF TO THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND PERHAPS A
LOW CHANCE OF RAIN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY IF THESE FORECASTS WERE TO
VERIFY.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1138 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 15Z TUESDAY...AND BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  87  69  88  69  89 /   5   0   5   0   0
WACO, TX              89  67  88  68  89 /   5   0   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             84  66  85  67  86 /   5   0   5   5   0
DENTON, TX            87  67  87  67  88 /   5   0   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          85  67  86  67  87 /   5   0   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            88  69  90  70  91 /   5   0   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           85  67  87  68  88 /   5   0   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         87  67  88  68  89 /   5   0   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            89  67  88  67  89 /   5   0   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     87  67  88  67  89 /  10   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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