Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 272336
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
536 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS OVER THE METROPLEX ARE NOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE AT DFW/GKY/DAL AROUND 1Z. THEREAFTER
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER LIKELY UNTIL TROUGH
AXIS CLEARS THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL
AT 10-15KT THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING TO NEAR 10KT BY SUNRISE.

FOR WACO VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH CIGS NEAR 050 FOR THE NEXT 15-18
HOURS. SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS IS LIKELY TO
GRAZE THE TAF SITE FROM EARLY TO MID MORNING SUNDAY. WILL SHOW JUST
-RA IN TAF AND SINCE RAIN INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED BY LAYER OF
DRY AIR NEAR SURFACE NO VSBY OR CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

TR.92

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014/
THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THAT CREATED SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS PAST MORNING IS SLOWLY
EXITING THE AREA...THOUGH A FEW SLEET PELLETS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW APPROACHING
THE TEXAS COAST WITH CLOUDY...WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS
THE LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON  ON
SUNDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRIER
POLAR AIR INTRUDING IN WITH JUST BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THIS PERIOD. WE DID LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY INTO THE 40S
TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS AND WEAK CAA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSING MAIN UPPER TROUGH.

THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK HEADING
INTO THE NEW YEAR. AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN OF NEVADA/UTAH/ARIZONA DURING THIS TIME. AT
THE SURFACE...RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WARM IT UP BRIEFLY ON
MONDAY TO BETWEEN 55 AND 65 DEGREES...BEFORE A SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD
FRONT ARRIVES EARLY TUESDAY. THOUGH CHILLY AND BRISK CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...A BULK OF THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. THE ENERGY OUT
WEST IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF CLOSING OFF OVER ARIZONA BY
WEDNESDAY...BUT A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA
AND INDUCE ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MODELS DIFFERING SOMEWHAT ON
ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILES...PRECIP TYPES...AND OVERALL TEMPERATURES.
SO CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF ANY WINTER WEATHER
LATER IN THE WEEK REMAINS LOW...BUT APPEARS SOME CHANCE OF A MIX
WILL BE THERE WITH CHILLY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

THE GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO EJECT EAST TOWARD
AND ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AT THE END OF THE WEEK...AS
ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS REALLY BEGIN DIVERGING BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE
OPEN TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS MUCH
QUICKER AND NORTH WITH IT...WHILE THE EUROPEAN SLOWER AND FURTHER
SOUTH. WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S UPPER HIGH REMAINING RELATIVELY
STRONG OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...THE EUROPEAN MODEL
SOLUTION APPEARS MORE LIKELY WITH GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD KNOW MORE ON DETAILS OF FUTURE SYSTEMS
IN THE COMING DAYS...BUT UNTIL THEN WE WILL JUST REMAIN
CONSERVATIVE UNTIL THEY BECOME MORE CLEAR.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  33  49  33  58  33 /  20   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              35  50  31  61  34 /  20  10   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             33  48  31  55  31 /  30   5   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            31  49  32  57  29 /  20   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          32  48  32  57  30 /  20   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            34  49  34  59  34 /  20   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           34  49  32  58  34 /  30   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         36  50  33  60  35 /  30  20   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            35  50  32  62  34 /  20  20   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     29  49  31  58  28 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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