National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 120908
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
408 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY COLUMBUS TO
HUNTSVILLE TO CROCKETT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY 7AM.
WINDS ARE STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH AND A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING AT
7AM THIS MORNING. THE GUSTS SHOULD END BY EARLY EVENING AS WIND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AROUND SUNSET.

PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE STATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS
MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY AN ELONGATED EAST WEST
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS BACK INTO THE MID
CALIFORNIA COAST. AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND THIS FEATURE WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS A SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY.
HAVE ADDED SOME CHANCE POPS IN TO THE FORECAST AS IN ADDITION TO
THE SHORTWAVE EASTERN TEXAS WILL LIE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE AS WELL WITH CAPES AOA 1K J/KG AND LI
VALUES AROUND -5 SO HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER AS WELL.

IN THE MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS BENT CLOSER TO THE
PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS IN CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND FORCES IT SOUTH
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WE MAY NOT DRY OUT AS QUICKLY IF THE MORE
NORTHERN GFS TRACK PROVES TO BE CORRECT. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 38

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST BETWEEN 6 AND 7
AM TODAY WITH WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING SCA CRITERIA. THERE IS SOME
PATCHY FOG NEAR THE COAST THAT WILL DISSIPATE WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. A WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST AT SOME POINT  ON
SUNDAY AND STRENGTHEN AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AND WILL GUST ABOVE 30 MPH AT TIMES. MIN RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 30 PERCENT TODAY BUT IF TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOVE FORECAST VALUES...RH VALUES COULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
FORECAST. DUE TO THE HIGH WINDS EXPECTED...THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK
FOR FIRE WEATHER TODAY. RH VALUES WILL BE LOWER ON THURSDAY BUT WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER AND THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES WILL BE MUCH LESS. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      63  37  65  44  67 /   0   0   0  10  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              66  40  65  46  68 /   0   0   0  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            63  48  62  54  65 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
     BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
     GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE...33
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
