Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 061014
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
414 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE PORTION OF SE TX WILL HAVE FREEZING TEMPS AS THE SUN COMES
UP THIS MORNING...SLIGHTLY PAST THE TYPICAL LAST FREEZE OF THE
SEASON. (THERE HAVE BEEN FREEZES INTO APRIL - SO IT`S NOT UNHEARD
OF).

SFC HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE OVER NRN GULF COAST STATES TODAY/SAT IN
THE WAKE OF WED NIGHTS COLD FRONT. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S
TODAY WITH SOME CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY...BUT STILL PRECIP-FREE.

COASTAL TROF SHOULD DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH EDGES
FURTHER EWD AND UPPER TROF (NOW OFF BAJA) MOVES INTO MEXICO & WEST
TX. COMBINATION OF LIFT OVER THE COASTAL TROF, A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
RIDING THE SW FLOW ALOFT, AND FAVORABLE JET STRUCTURE WILL LEAD TO
GOOD RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THRU THE DAY MONDAY. MODELS ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND ALMOST ALL SHOW 1-3" RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA
IN THAT TIME PERIOD. THAT WOULDN`T BE OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY
IF PW`S TRULY GET INTO THE 1.2-1.6" RANGE AND LLVL CONVERGENT ZONE
SETS UP AS SUGGESTED.

COASTAL TROF HEADS ENE LATE MON AND TUE AND SHOULD MOSTLY BRING
AN END TO THE WET WX THRU THE MIDWEEK TIME PERIOD. THAT BEING
SAID...THE MEAN UPPER TROF SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR WEST THRU MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE IT BROADENS AND DIGS FURTHER SOUTH INTO
MEXICO WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER SFC TROF/LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF LATER IN THE WEEK. QUESTIONABLE IF WE`LL END UP
IN THE MORE SOUTHERLY/WETTER FETCH OR THE SLIGHTLY DRIER OFFSHORE
SEGMENT AS THE SFC LOW EVENTUALLY HEADS NORTHWARD INTO EITHER E TX
OR LOUISIANA LATER IN THE WEEK. 47

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OVER THE BAYS HAVE DECREASED BUT ARE STILL ELEVATED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES MORE FIRM-
LY OVER THE REGION TODAY...WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED DROP BELOW ADVISORIES
LATER THIS AFTN/THIS EVENING. AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST WE WILL
START TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT LOW COASTAL
LOW/TROF PROGGED TO DEVELOP JUST OFF THE UPPER TX COAST BY SUNDAY AS
SCATTERED PCPN FORMS/LINGERS INTO NEXT TUES. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
NO REAL ISSUES AS HIGH PRESSURE REIGNS SUPREME. VFR. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      52  32  58  42  51 /   0   0   0  30  60
HOUSTON (IAH)              54  33  58  45  53 /   0   0   0  30  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            51  42  55  52  56 /   0   0   0  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA
     BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$



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