Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 250512
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1212 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS AND SCATTERED PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG ANTICIPATED OVER
MUCH OF TEH FORECAST AREA DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...THE BIGGEST INFLUENCE
ON LOW CLOUD FORMATION WILL BE THE CIRRUS OVERCAST. THE CIRRUS
HAS THINNED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM 00Z...SO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS DURING PREDAWN HOURS.

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 16Z TOMORROW
MORNING WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. 44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/

UPDATE...
MAJORITY OF NORTHERN ZONE DISCRETE CELLS NOW NORTH OF THE CWA.
SHORT TERM HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELING ALL PEGGING ON THE RETURN
OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTY CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GENERAL LARGE SCALE UPPER (HEIGHT) WEAKNESS OVER THE STATE MAY
LINGER ON INTO SATURDAY THAT...WITH GREATER THAN 1.5 INCH PWATS...
ANTICIPATED LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (LEADING TO HIGH CAPE VALUES)
..AND ACHIEVABLE MID 80F CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...WILL HAVE
SATURDAY (NORTH-WEST CWA) POPS ON THE RISE. OF COURSE...HIGHER
SATURDAY PM POPS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE CONSISTENCY OF OVERNIGHT
SHORT RANGE NWP PROGNOSTICATION AND THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF
SOUTHERN PLAINS MID-UPPER RIDGING.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVES WILL PARALLEL LATE MAY
CLIMATE...AVERAGE LOWER 70 MINS / UPPER 80 MAXS...UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY MORNING SKIES WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY.
31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      88  71  86  71  90 /  40  50  30  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  73  88  71  89 /  30  10  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  76  82  74  84 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...44
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