Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 290441
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1141 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CIGS THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HRS WITH CALM WINDS
TONIGHT. WINDS PICK UP FROM SE AT AROUND 5-10KTS.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE BIG BEND INTO
THE ARKLATEX REGION WILL KEEP SE TEXAS MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE STALLING SHORTLY INLAND OVER HOUSTON. WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE THE NEXT HR OR SO IF NOT ALREADY. EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS PICKING UP LATE MORNING. MAYBE SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TOMORROW. OVERALL - VFR.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
SEABREEZE TRYING FORM NEAR THE COAST WITH SOME CU STILL ONGOING
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH SUNDAY
KEEPING THE AIRMASS RELATIVELY DRY AND RAIN FREE. GRADUALLY
INCREASING MOISTURE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SOUTHEASTERLY
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF AND ALABAMA
WILL RETROGRADE AND FILL AS S/W OVER IA/NE DROPS SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT EVENTUALLY REINFORCING/REDEVELOPING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
OVER EAST/SOUTHEAST TX BY TUESDAY. IN THE SHORTER TERM THIS LEAD
S/W SHOULD BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHWEST AREAS
TOWARD MORNING AND MORE SO BY LATE SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP IT
WARMER THAN NORMAL DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS DEEPER
MOISTURE SPREADS INLAND IN RESPONSE TO THE SLOWLY DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH 20-40
PERCENT CHANCE BEING COMMON IN THE FORECAST WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN THAT
WAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NORTHERN AREAS COULD STAY DRY THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK AND PLAN TO CARRY 20 OR LESS THERE. TS ERIKA
SHOULD SHORTLY BEGIN TO TRAVERSE OVER OR CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS OF
CUBA/HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THEN EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN
GULF OR FLORIDA. INITIALLY IT WILL PROBABLY GET TORN UP PRETTY
BADLY BY THE ISLANDS BUT THEN EVENTUALLY BACK OUT OVER WARMER GULF
WATERS BUT IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ECMWF ADVERTISING A VERY SLOW
MEANDER IN THE FAR NORTHEAST GULF FOR A FEW DAYS. DOESN`T LOOK TO
POSE ANY THREAT FOR TEXAS.
45

MARINE...
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AND ON INTO NEXT
WEEK. DEEPENING MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA STARTING ON SUNDAY...AND
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  96  72  95  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              72  95  71  94  73 /   0   0   0  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  90  79  90  79 /   0   0  10  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39


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