Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 300443
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1143 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE MAP FROM THIS EVENING SHOWING MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
LAYING ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE FRONT IS ALSO LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF KUTS AND KCLL. HIGH RES MODELS ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SHOWERS TO FIRE ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW CURRENTLY NEAR
KGLS AROUND SUNRISE. HAVE ADDED A VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. THERE ALSO IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURE/ DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE
QUICKLY CLOSING (ONE DEGREE AT KLBX). THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT FOG WILL BE AT KLBX AND KSGR WHERE SOME HEAVY RAIN FELL THIS
AFTERNOON. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND DISSIPATED. AN AREA OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING INTO CROCKETT-LIBERTY AREAS AND MAY HAVE
SOME VIRGA. TEMPERATURES FELL NICELY WITH THE RAIN COOLED AIR FROM
THE LATE AFTERNOON STORMS. HOUSTON AREA GOT SOME RAIN WITH THE
AREAS FROM ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR GETTING THE MOST RAINFALL.
WEST SIDE...SOUTH MAYDE AT GREENHOUSE ROAD AT 1.72" AND NORTHEAST
LOOP AT HUNTING BAYOU AND LOCKWOOD DR 3.12". WITH THE RAIN COOLED
AIR T/TD SPREADS HAVE NARROWED DRAMATICALLY AND WITH SKIES
CLEARING OVERNIGHT EXPECT THAT THE COMBINATION OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING/LIGHT-CALM WINDS/WET GROUND THAT PATCHY FOG WILL FORM
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING FOR MOST OF THE RURAL AREAS BUT
THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE DRIER AIR WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
PUSHED IN. GIVEN THE TROUGHING THROUGH THE REGION EXPECT TO SEE AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP AROUND GALVESTON AND SOUTHEASTWARD
AND COVERAGE MAY EXCEED ISOLATED IF THE ALREADY DIFFUSE BOUNDARY
THERE DOESN`T DISSIPATE. SO MADE CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ABOVE.
45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOVED OFF TO
THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES
IN ITS WAKE. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS WHAT HELPED GET THINGS
GOING THIS AFTERNOON AND THINKING IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL START
TO RETREAT AND WASH OUT TONIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR TOMORROW WILL BE FROM DAY TIME HEATING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS SHOW PWATS AROUND 1.8" WHILE THE
NAM HAS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH PWATS ONLY AROUND 1.6". OVERALL
HAVE LEANED TOWARDS A LOW COVERAGE DAY TOMORROW AS THE BOUNDARY
RETREATS. STILL CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO WITH DAY TIME HEATING. 23

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY AND PROPAGATING SOUTH. WEAK STEERING
FLOW WILL MAKE THE MAIN THREAT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
METRO THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES FOR THE
COMMUTE HOME. A GUST FRONT HEADING SOUTHWEST INTO MIDDLE 90 DEGREE
AIR INCREASES THE THREAT FOR SOUTHWESTERN FA CONVECTION THROUGH 5
PM.

UPPER RIDGE HAS BACKED OFF TO THE WEST AND THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS IS FORECAST TO EVER GENTLY BACK-BUILD WEST...ESPECIALLY IF
THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES UPON A MORE SOUTHERLY
TREK. A GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND
THE DESERT SW-CENTERED RIDGE WILL SLIDE DOWN INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY BY TOMORROW AT THIS TIME. THE BACKGROUND IS SET FOR THIS
DISTURBANCE TO SET-OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY SCATTERED WEDNESDAY
PM CONVECTION. HIGH MOISTURE OF GT TWO INCH PWS...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ATOP A NEARLY-NON EXISTENT WIND FIELD COURTESY A WASHED
OUT STATIONARY BOUNDARY...AND NEAR 90F CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
WITHIN AN UN-CAPPED ATMOSPHERE PROVIDES ALL OF THE QUANTATIVE
ARGUMENT TO KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FROM AROUND SUNRISE
THROUGH MID EVENING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO COME BACK AROUND TO
ONSHORE AND PUSH A WARM FRONT UP INTO NE TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL AID IN PUSHING THIS FRONT TOWARDS THE
COAST...ONLY TO HANG IT UP AGAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. NPW MODELING
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST QPF ALONG THIS DIFFUSE NEAR COASTAL BOUNDARY
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
SLOW-MOVING STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. INVERTED-V
PROG SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SECONDARY THREAT WOULD BE THAT OF
ISOLATED STORM WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THERE IS NO APPARENT UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...NOR FAVORABLE JET POSITIONING...TO PLACE
LIKELY POPS IN THIS TUESDAY PACKAGE. THE INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA OVERCAST/RAIN WITH A WET GROUND WILL
REGULATE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND TEMPERATURES TO THE (UPPER) 80S. 31

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS GALVESTON BAY AND OFF THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA AT MID AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
FRONT MAY WORK ITS WAY ACROSS GALVESTON ISLAND BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TO ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT MAY WORK ITS
WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT EXPECTED WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      94  73  97  74  93 /  30  10  20  10  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              94  77  96  75  95 /  40  10  30  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  81  91  80  87 /  40  20  30  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...23


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