Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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962
FXUS64 KHGX 271805
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1205 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.AVIATION...
Small break in MVFR conditions this afternoon, as ceilings rise
slightly resulting in VFR conditions for a short time period.
Capping in the soundings has continue to keep VCSH out of the
TAFs, though the chance for an isolated shower or drizzle is not
completely out of the question. Forecast soundings are indicating
low level moisture between 00Z to 03Z across all of the terminals
tonight. Therefore, ceilings will lower again this evening to MVFR
criteria.

Based off last nights observations, as well the latest LAMP and
MOS guidance, it is possible that around 09Z most terminals could
see a small reduction in visibility down to around 5 miles due to
mist. Not confident in fog formation as the wind speeds will be
slight higher during this early morning time frame, resulting in
too much mixing at the surface. GLS stands the best chance for the
lowest ceilings tonight, with a scattered deck around 500 feet at
08Z.

Hathaway

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/

UPDATE...
A hazy...more humid morning with the surface warm front
positioned way north across northeastern Texas. High dew points
in the middle 60s (north) to upper 60s to lower 70s (coast) with a
warm start around 70 F suggests that we will be achieving the
lower 80s by noon at many sites. Lower to middle 80 forecast
maximum temperatures...with near 70 F minimums just ahead of a
Wednesday cold front...will make this month the warmest February
on record (please see the climate section below). Stout 8-900mb
capping as evidenced on morning soundings will be hard to break
today with the best lift associated with a northern Texas shortwave
disturbance passage remaining well north and east of the region.
Thus...just slight chances for scattered weak showers with a
possible (northern county) rogue storm this afternoon. 31

CLIMATE...
It looks as if this month will be the warmest February on record
(average temperatures) for our main climate sites.

Average February temperatures:

Through Feb 26:          Rank
College Station: 63.7     1

Houston (IAH):   65.7     2 (Record of 65.9 in 1962)

Houston (HOU):   66.4     1

Galveston:       67.1     1

MARINE...
Winds falling off this morning, therefore canceled the SCEC.
Moderate onshore winds around 10 knots will keep the sea heights
between 3 to 4 feet nearshore, and 4 to 5 feet for the offshore
waters. Expecting wind speeds to pick up this afternoon into the
evening hours. Around 03Z, winds should be back up between 15 to 20
knots, and therefore may need to include SCEC criteria once more in
the forecast. Will reevaluate as new model guidance becomes available.

Tides are running slightly higher than predicted. Observed tides are
currently around 1.5 to 2.0 feet above MLLW.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      81  67  85  63  71 /  20  10  30  30  30
Houston (IAH)              82  69  84  70  77 /  20  10  20  20  40
Galveston (GLS)            75  68  75  69  75 /  20  10  10  10  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...31
Aviation/Marine...08



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