Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 272245
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
345 PM PDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES.

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER
THE REGION. BY THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE...AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SMOKE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA. OTHERWISE
SUNNY ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
WITH A MIX IN TRENDS AREA WIDE. MORE WIDESPREAD CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT TODAY OVER THE HIGH SIERRA DUE TO REMNANT MONSOON
MOISTURE. HOWEVER THINK LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AS
THE UPSTREAM 12Z SOUNDING AT VANDENBERG SHOWS A STABLE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A TROUGH WAS ALONG THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO NEAR
PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE NCAL COAST.

THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONSHORE
GRADIENTS WILL STRENGHTEN SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO
NCAL. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP BELOW THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
PASSES ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY DURING THE EARLY MORNING
SATURDAY. THE STRONGER WIND POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT SOUTH TOWARDS
THE PASSES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE DRY SOIL CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN BLOWING DUST IN
FAVORABLE WINDY MOUNTAIN PASSES ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE DIABLO AND
TEMBLOR MOUNTAINS. MODELS PROG A BAND OF MOISTURE REACHING THE
CENTRAL VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING MOVING SOUTH INTO THE TEHACHAPIS
SATURDAY NIGHT. DYNAMIC LIFT WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE TROUGH CROSSES
CENTRAL CA. LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION BUT THE TROUGH WILL
USHER IN A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND.

THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW MAINTAINS THE COOL TROUGH OVER CA.

MODELS SHOW A UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHOR ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING
RESULTING IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ACROSS CENTRAL CA.

OPERATIONAL MODELS PROG FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACNW
FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD EXTEND THE COOL TEMPERATURES
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA DUE TO SMOKE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ON FRIDAY AUGUST 28 2015... UNHEALTHY FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO COUNTY AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND
FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-27      109:1924     80:1895     78:1913     51:1895
KFAT 08-28      108:1924     78:1953     77:1894     52:1907
KFAT 08-29      109:1915     79:2010     76:1915     52:1895

KBFL 08-27      111:1931     84:1991     80:1909     45:1903
KBFL 08-28      109:1944     71:1911     78:1972     48:1903
KBFL 08-29      109:1915     77:1911     85:1909     45:1903
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MV
AVN/FW...MV
PREV DISCUSSION...SANGER
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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