Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 172300
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 PM PST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN
AREAS. BY SUNDAY, A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNEDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW A WEAK SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME. UPSLOPE CLOUDS PUSHING AGAINST THE
NORTH-FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS HAVE RESULTED IN
LIGHT RAIN FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS...WITH ONE REPORT OF 0.07 INCH AT
BEAR VALLEY SPRINGS.

THIS SHORT-WAVE WAS AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE A FAST MOVER...AND WILL
IMPACT THE WFO HANFORD COUNTY WARNING/FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. QPF/S ARE FORECAST TO BE
LIGHT...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES FORECAST FOR YOSEMITE
NATIONAL PARK. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 4500-5000
FEET AT YOSEMITE TO 5500-6000 FEET IN THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACT ON THE GRAPEVINE OR HIGHWAY 58 THROUGH
TEHACHAPI PASS.

PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO END OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY 12Z
/0400 PST/ THURSDAY WHILE LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 18Z
/1000 PST/. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE TULE FOG
AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS.

UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF THE STORM...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY
DENSE VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE NEXT STORM IS FORECAST TO REACH INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITATION NOT REACHING THE
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THIS STORM...THE MODELS PREDICT ONLY LIMITED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE THIS FAR SOUTH AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S STORM.

AN EAST-PACIFIC UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO
CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY STORM. THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS
FORECAST THIS TO BE A STRONG RIDGE...WITH 500-MB HEIGHTS OVER
INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA CLIMBING ABOVE 5820 METERS BY 06Z MONDAY
/2200 PST SUNDAY/. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE ENTRENCHED OVER
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THEN AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF DROPS THE TROUGH INTO CALIFORNIA FOR CHRISTMAS
DAY...WHILE THE GFS FORECASTS THE TROUGH TO BE AN INSIDE SLIDER.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY CALLS FOR DRY WEATHER WITH NIGHT AND MORNING TULE
FOG DAILY IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE
INVERSION AND IN THE DESERTS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WHILE BELOW
THE INVERSION TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FOG LIFTS
/IF IT DOES/ EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS UNTIL 09Z
THURSDAY. IN THE SIERRA NEVADA...AREAS OF IFR WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY...THEN MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS/VIS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-17       70:1958     40:1963     52:2012     25:1967
KFAT 12-18       71:1979     41:1963     52:2010     26:1965
KFAT 12-19       74:1981     36:1908     53:2005     25:1965

KBFL 12-17       75:1977     41:1985     54:1977     23:1901
KBFL 12-18       75:1979     35:1908     53:1938     23:1908
KBFL 12-19       80:1981     39:1965     55:2010     23:1924

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...MV

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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