Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 231001
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
301 AM PDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND THE SIERRA NEVADA COULD ALSO SEE LIGHT
SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE
REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S THROUGH THE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE KERN COUNTY DESERT.
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST
FULL DAY OF THE FALL SEASON. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND TO THE AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS OF NOW...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE LOW 80S THROUGH THE VALLEY...NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

IN ADDITION TO COOLER TEMPERATURES...A FEW OF THE SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE VALLEY AND SIERRA NEVADA ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM WITH REGARDS TO ANY SHOWERS IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. IF RAIN DOES FALL...MOST LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF RAIN.

OTHERWISE...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WHICH WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO JUST
BELOW 10,000 FEET FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN SEPTEMBER. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS...IF SHOWERS DO FORM OVER THE WEEKEND...THOSE
CAMPING AND OR HIKING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE SNOW
SHOWERS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION
AND UPDATE THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS/TIMING AS THE WEEK CONTINUES
AND FORECAST MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE DETAILS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING TEMPERATURE TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-23      105:1949     66:1904     70:2011     47:1968
KFAT 09-24      102:1899     62:1904     73:1939     46:1945
KFAT 09-25      100:2009     69:1923     69:2002     43:1948

KBFL 09-23      107:1943     71:1986     72:1949     31:1903
KBFL 09-24      103:1919     72:1920     74:2009     35:1908
KBFL 09-25      103:1975     72:1971     73:1991     34:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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