Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 010411 AAB
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
911 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE... UPDATED TO REMOVE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND FOOTHILL
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...PRODUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERT. A DRYING TREND EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA STRENGTHENED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE DIMINISHED WITH THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING...HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD
FORECAST AND SCALED BACK POPS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY AND THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWED FOR STRONG SOLAR HEATING OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TODAY. N.A.S.
LEMOORE TOPPED OUT AT 106 DEGREES. FRESNO...BAKERSFIELD...AVENAL...
THREE RIVERS AND THE HANFORD MUNICIPAL AIRPORT ALL HAD HIGHS OF 105
DEGREES. TO THE NORTH...THE MERCED REGIONAL AIRPORT ONLY REACHED 96
AND LOS BANOS HAD A HIGH OF 99.

THE MODELS FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE IN 1000-500-MB THICKNESSES FROM
THIS AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THICKNESSES OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY HOLDING AT 5820 METERS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOO COOL AS THEY OVERFORECASTED THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. HAVE TRENDED THE UPDATED HIGHS FOR SATURDAY
FROM TODAY/S OBSERVED HIGHS...BUT SCALED BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND ARIZONA...AND SOME OF THESE CLOUDS
COULD PUSH NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A REMNANT VORT MAX PROVIDED A FEW STORM EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED INTO NCAL LEAVING CLEARING SKIES. CUMULUS
CLOUDS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WEATHER RADAR
SHOWS SEVERAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SIERRA HIGH COUNTRY.
SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATE LOTS OF
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL CA. PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND TWO SIGMAS
ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE THE NAM MODEL PROGGED SOME HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SIERRA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS MODERATE OUT OF THE SE. THUS STORMS WILL PROVIDE BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE STORMS WILL MOVE AT A FAST PACE
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. DO
NOT SEE ANY WEATHER DISTURBANCES TO MAINTAIN OR INITIATE
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THUS EXPECT ANY STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING. AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE FURTHER
NORTH SATURDAY. THIS WILL TURN THE MID LEVEL FLOW FURTHER SOUTH
BRINGING A DRYER AIR FROM THE SOUTH. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL INTO
THE CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE STORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE DIABLO AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS. EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA AND FOOTHILLS TRIGGERED BY DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPSLOPE WIND CONVERGENCE. THE DRYING TREND AND
DIMINISHING STORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS
MORE SW. AN UPPER LOW WILL REFORM OFF THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND MAINTAIN THE A DRY SW MID LEVEL FLOW. AT THE LOWER LEVELS
A COOL ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE INTERIOR WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SATURDAY AUGUST 1 2015... UNHEALTHY IN MADERA COUNTY. UNHEALTHY
FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS... MERCED AND
TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-31      114:1908     83:1976     81:1908     53:1895
KFAT 08-01      112:1908     79:1933     86:1908     56:1888
KFAT 08-02      112:1908     83:1953     82:1908     53:1956

KBFL 07-31      110:1943     85:1985     81:2014     55:1905
KBFL 08-01      112:1979     86:1985     80:2000     53:1912
KBFL 08-02      109:1979     86:1976     84:1977     53:1912

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...DURFEE
PREV DISCUSSION...MV
SYNOPSIS...ROWE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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