Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 140056 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
456 PM PST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING
FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN AND
HIGH SIERRA SNOW TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO FRIDAY...NO ONE
CAN DENY THAT SPRING-LIKE WEATHER IS STILL UPON US. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE PATTERN IS
BEING FLATTENED BY THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PAC NW THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
IMPRESSIVE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE THAT
EXTENDS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CA WILL KEEP THIS
MOISTURE PLUME WELL TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND LEAVE CENTRAL CA HIGH
AND DRY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS. OTHERWISE THE
PAC NW TROUGH WILL END UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WITHIN
24 HRS WITH A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT RESIDING OVER CENTRAL CA SUNDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER CA
ON PRESIDENTS DAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS
BOTH DAYS WILL AVERAGE A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE SJ VLY...LOWER FOOTHILLS AND THE
KERN COUNTY DESERT. THE ONLY WEATHER WOE THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE
THE RECURRENCE OF PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SJ VLY.

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THE STORM SYSTEM DURING MIDWEEK. ALTHOUGH THE ECM IS
STILL A BIT WETTER AND SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BOTH MODELS NOW FCST
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE
AND BE FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS WHISKS THE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT
BASIN BY THURSDAY AFTN WHILE THE ECM LAGS ITS EASTWARD DEPARTURE
BY ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO. WHICHEVER MODEL ENDS UP BEING RIGHT...IT
IS PRETTY CERTAIN THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WET WEATHER TO ALL
REGIONS EXCEPT THE KERN COUNTY DESERT BEFORE MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NORTH OF KINGS CANYON WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE
LIONS SHARE OF PRECIPITATION WITH POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH OF WATER.
(ABOVE 7K FEET THIS MIGHT EQUATE TO AS MUCH AS A FOOT OF NEW SNOW
OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF YNP.) THIS IS CONSIDERABLY LESS
THAN MODEL PROJECTIONS A FEW DAYS AGO. WPC HAS ALSO SCALED BACK
ITS QPF WITH RAIN AMTS RANGING FROM JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE SJ VLY AND UP TO A HALF INCH IN THE
SIERRA FOOTHILLS FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTH. QPF AMTS WILL ONLY BE
HIGHER IF THE STORM SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY WEST
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BUFFET THE SIERRA CREST...
THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS STORM WILL ALSO
COOL TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY ON DAYS 6 AND 7 AND FOR SEVERAL
DAYS THEREAFTER AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER CA. THAT COULD
SPELL A RETURN OF PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG IN THE SJ VLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF MVFR IN HAZE WITH LOCAL
IFR/LIFR IN MIST/FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14 2016... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... MADERA AND
TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-13       79:1921     43:1903     56:1987     24:1949
KFAT 02-14       79:1924     46:1903     55:1986     25:1949
KFAT 02-15       79:1977     49:1990     58:1902     24:1990

KBFL 02-13       83:1924     49:1949     55:1986     25:1908
KBFL 02-14       78:2014     47:1990     55:1986     21:1903
KBFL 02-15       84:1977     50:1911     56:1982     21:1903

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...ROWE
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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