Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 240929
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
229 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. OTHERWISE...THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY...EXCEPT OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW MOVED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY. AROUND 10 PM LAST NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS FORMED ALONG THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND TRAVELED QUICKLY SOUTH
INTO KERN COUNTY. BAKERSFIELD BROKE THEIR DAILY RAINFALL
RECORD...WITH 0.12" OF RAIN FALLING BETWEEN 11 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 0.08" SET IN 2008.

AS OF 2 AM...THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS THE UPPER LOW
EXITING SOUTH FROM KERN COUNTY INTO LOS ANGELES COUNTY...LEAVING
BEHIND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. THE HIGH RES ARW...NMM...AND
HRRR WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD END
BY 09Z...WHICH WAS RIGHT ON TIME.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO ARIZONA LATER
THIS MORNING WITH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IN AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END
OF MAY. SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST
FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
HIGH RES MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE CAPE VALUES GENERALLY OVER 600 J/KG AND
LI VALUES NEAR ZERO. THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER WITH REGARDS TO THE
AMOUNT OF SURFACE CAPE...INDICATING A BULLSEYE OF JUST OVER 1500
J/KG IN TULARE COUNTY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA CREST EACH DAY INTO THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE EAST TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. SIGNIFICANT WARMING
WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFT EAST OVER
CALIFORNIA. FRIDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK...WITH MANY SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE
MID 90S...BETWEEN 5 AND 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.

FOR THE LONGER RANGE...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER`S 8 TO 14 DAY
OUTLOOK (VALID FROM MAY 31ST THROUGH JUNE 6TH) IS CALLING FOR A
GOOD CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-24      103:1943     64:1916     68:2001     41:1953
KFAT 05-25      102:1890     59:1906     68:2014     42:1980
KFAT 05-26      103:1974     66:1946     68:2014     40:1953

KBFL 05-24      107:1982     68:1980     76:1982     41:1916
KBFL 05-25      106:1982     58:2008     77:1982     39:1893
KBFL 05-26      107:1951     68:1998     72:1979     40:1918
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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