Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 051054
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
654 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SWING SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING THE RISK FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DRY WEATHER AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED JUST OFF THE
CAPE FEAR COAST. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS N OF
THE AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WITH DRIER
AIR...NEAR THE COAST AT SUNRISE...WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS THE LOW
LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA.

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MINUS 26 DEG C...WILL WORK
INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER LOW...CUT-OFF
FROM THE PREVAILING FLOW...SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTH. THIS FEATURE WILL
BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT.

AS HEATING GETS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING AND COLDER AIR UPSTAIRS
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE W...LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN. THIS
WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY CLOUDS TO FILL IN. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...
BUT THIS SHOULD NOT PREVENT SHALLOW CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVE. THERE IS A RISK FOR SMALL HAIL WITH LOWERING WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRONOUNCED
INVERTED-V PROFILE UP THROUGH 5 KFT WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 18-20
KFT. THIS SIGNALS THE RISK FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY OF THE
MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WIND RISK IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE.
WILL TREND POPS LOWER FROM S TO N AFTER DARK...HANGING ONTO A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AREA AND GRAND STRAND WHERE THE DRY AIR LOOKS
MOST FORMIDABLE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE BELOW SEASONABLE NORMALS...UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COOL...UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
ON FRI. ALTHOUGH THE AIR ALOFT MAY NOT BE QUITE AS COLD ON
FRI...AS THE MAIN LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED.
THUS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER...WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE WHEN
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPEST.

THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EDGE OFFSHORE DURING SAT AS RIDGING
TO OUR W BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN FEWER CLOUDS. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY
INCREASE SAT AND SAT NIGHT AND WE COULD SEE A WEAK PERTURBATION IN
NW FLOW KICK OFF A SHOWER. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...WILL OPT FOR A
MORE OPTIMISTIC VIEWPOINT...KEEPING SHOWERS OFFSHORE.

TEMPS WILL WARM FROM THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON FRI TO THE MID OR
UPPER 70S BY SAT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FRI NIGHT WILL BE
NEAR 60 SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
WILL PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS BOUNDARY
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA BEFORE IT STALLS AND DISSIPATES INTO MONDAY.
WHILE COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON SUNDAY AS
ONE OF THE MODELS IS DEPICTING...OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET AS WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES TO
BUILD AND EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE. RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW RETURNS BY MID-WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL SEE THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR CONVECTION RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...JUST ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THE FOG/STRATUS AND NORTHERLY FLOW AT ILM WILL PROBABLY
BE SHORT LIVED AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY 13Z. A
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...RESIDING OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA BY THIS EVENING. THE UNUSUALLY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
KICK OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MORE PREVALENT OVER
NORTH CAROLINA AT FIRST. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED THUNDER...BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS. TONIGHT...EXPECT POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH INTERMITTENT LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY IN THE CONVECTION.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...WILL HEADLINE SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT
IN A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WATERS AS COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE W. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MIXING TO THE SEA SURFACE. ALSO...LOW PRESSURE NEAR
THE CAPE FEAR COAST WILL LIFT N INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN
AND THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE W THIS PERIOD...UP TO AROUND 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 5 FT.
ACROSS THE VERY NEAR SHORE WATERS...STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL YIELD LOWER SEAS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...W WINDS FRI WILL BRIEFLY VEER TO NW FRI
NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION SAT AND SAT
NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KT MOST OF THE TIME. THE
PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD DRIVE SEAS DOWN TO 2 TO 3
FT FRI...4 FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MORNING TO PREVAIL WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...THOUGH WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF
THE WATERS. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE A SLIGHT SHIFT IN WIND
DIRECTION TO WESTERLY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DROPPING TO AOB 10 KT. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY...AOB 10 KT. EXPECT SEAS 2 TO 3 FT ON SUNDAY
WITH OCCASIONAL 4 FTERS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTER WATERS.
ON MONDAY...SEAS BECOME STEADY AROUND 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...DL



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