Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 241740
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
140 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Remnant tropical moisture from previous storm Cindy will pass
across the region this afternoon through early Sunday, bringing
a good chance of rain, which may be heavy at times overnight.
Slightly cooler and much drier air will move into the region
early next week. A warming trend is expected mid to late of
this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1013 AM Saturday...The morning soundings are are showing
a very moist and unstable atmosphere. The precipitable waters
across the southeast are all under 2", the GOES-16 Total
Precipitable Water is showing a nice ribbon of 2.2" PW falling
between the KGSO, KMHX, and KCHS. The Mean level CAPE at maximum
heating is running around 1650 J/kg, and the wet bulb zero is a
very high 13815 feet. The Storm Prediction Center has put the
are in a marginal risk and the threat is for wind damage. Also,
with the high PW and the steady southwest flow there is a threat
of very heavy rain and possible short fused flooding later in
the day. The convection is expected to first develop around 12
PM along the ribbon of high precipitable waters which mainly
will be in an area northwest of a Burgaw to Kingstree and then
slowly moving to the coast later this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...By daybreak Sunday the axis of maximum
PWAT values will be edging offshore, taking the potential for
the heaviest of rainfall with it to sea. Surface convergence
however will linger farther inland intrinsic with the surface
trough, and thus rain should be ongoing at this time, in a
scattered to likely fashion, favored across the eastern zones
where the overlap with higher column moisture prevails. Through
the day on Sunday showers should be tapering off from west to
east primarily due to H8-H6 drying. The surface trough/front
will cross the coast Sunday afternoon so maximum temperatures
Monday may be a few degrees cooler compared to Sunday even
though the air may be slightly rain-cooled Sunday. Relatively
cooler air to usher in Tuesday, middle and upper 60s and drier.
Moisture will linger along and near the coast Monday where
isolated convection may form, but could just end up as cumulus.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Friday...Mid level troughiness sharpens through
Tuesday. Initially a dry westerly flow but a slightly more
moisture-laden WSW flow through Tuesday. Daytime temperatures
will be held a bit below climatology through this time frame.
The trough axis appears to swing through on Wednesday bringing a
more decided drying. The rest of period will be characterized
by a building upper ridge over the Southeast and Bahamas. This
will mark a transition back towards seasonable temperatures and
isolated convection mainly during the diurnal maximum.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 18 UTC...Convection beginning over inland TAF sites.
Coverage of convection is expected to increase and move to the
coast generally after 19 UTC and be in the general area through
midnight. Mainly VFR outside convection with MVFR ceilings and
isolated IFR visibilities if convection occurs over airport. At
this time will go with VCTS.

Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon then mainly VFR conditions has
drier air moves in the area.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1013 AM Saturday...Currently at Frying Pan Shoals Buoy
the wind is from the southwest at 20 with gust to 25kt and seas
running 6.5 feet. Closer to the coast at 41110 seas are at 5
feet. This will be maintained over night so the small craft
advisory will continue. Also, tide levels along the coast will
be very low around 2 pm today with heights at Wrightsville Beach
and Myrtle Beach dropping to -1.5 and -1.6 respectively. This
may make it tricky maneuver boats through the inlets.


SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...This will be an improving marine period as
both winds and seas drop off, as a front nears and moves off the
coast. SW wind-waves will dampen through the day Sunday, but an
opposing NW-N later Sunday will cause a bit of sea state
confusion but conditions will still improve because the post
frontal winds will not be all that strong. Monday however a
slight high pressure surge could bring 20 KT gusts so seas may
hold in a 2-4 foot range. Sunday morning visibilities offshore
may range from 1-3 NM in areas of heavy showers and storms.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Friday...Not a typical summertime pattern in place
for most of the period. A sharpening mid level trough will be
in place. A series of weak surface boundaries may come through
but with only very minor fluctuations of wind direction, though
a northerly component will dominate. Wind speeds never really
look to exceed 10kt by much though a few higher gusts will be
possible. Seas will average 2 to occasionally 3 ft with near
shore wave shadowing much more pronounced than usual this time
of year where SW winds much more common.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...HAWKINS



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