Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 231857
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
257 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON IN DEEP NW FLOW AROUND FRONT END OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN FROM THE N-NW. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF DEEP
LOW OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY COLUMN
THROUGH TONIGHT. PCP WATER LEVELS BASICALLY BELOW A HALF INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH ONLY A BIT OF MOISTURE SHOWING UP IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAM OVER AREA IN W-SW FLOW AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE BY MORNING.

THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
CLOSER OVERHEAD. THEREFORE ANY LINGERING GUSTY NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
DECOUPLE AS SUN SETS THIS EVENING LEAVING NEAR CALM WINDS BY LATE
EVENING.

THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MODIFY AS CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER BUT OVERALL TEMPS UP CLOSE TO 70 THIS AFTN
UNDER BRIGHT OCTOBER SUNSHINE...WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING UNDER
CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES. A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DOWN TO
4O TO 45 DEGREES MOST PLACES. ANY CIRRUS MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT AFFECT TEMPS MUCH AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
AS OFFSHORE WINDS PREVENT ANY LOW OR MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE IMPRESSIVE
DISTURBANCE WITH STRONGER NORTH WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...UP TO 80 KNOTS AT 300 MB. THIS SYSTEM MAY
EVENTUALLY HELP LIFT THE REMNANTS OF OLD TROPICAL DEPRESSION #9
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...BUT MUCH TOO FAR EAST
FOR ANY IMPACT LOCALLY.

LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS RUNNING A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER PARTICULARLY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS. ANY CHANGES
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE ALL MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
GORGEOUS FALL WEATHER LOCALLY. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE OFFSHORE
BY SUNDAY MORNING...LEAVING A CONTINUED BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST. THICKNESSES WILL BEGIN TO RISE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH AS RIDGING
BLOOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...AND THEN AMPLIFIES OFFSHORE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BENEATH THIS RIDGE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH SLOWLY OFFSHORE...SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL EXPECT A BEAUTIFUL
LONG-TERM WITH A WARMING TREND FROM SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO SUNDAY...TO
WELL ABOVE BY TUE/WED...AND THIS WARMING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
INCREASE IN DIURNAL CLOUD COVER...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. ON
THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND LIKELY DROP
SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT FORCING IS LIMITED AND THE COLUMN REMAINS
PRETTY DRY...SO WHILE TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS...PRECIP WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED. NEVERTHELESS...THURSDAY WILL
OFFER THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REIGNS ACROSS THE AREA. NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND
HIGHER GUSTS OVER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO WILL SEE SOME GUSTIER WINDS IN WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT AS COOL AND DRY AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARMER WATERS. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS...HIGHEST IN OUTER WATERS. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN DIMINISHING NW-N OFF SHORE FLOW. AS WINDS DIMINISH
THROUGH TONIGHT...A SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD UP TO 10 SEC NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE OVER THE THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND
WAVES.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST
WILL MAINTAIN AN OFFSHORE WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVERHEAD FRIDAY EVENING...BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT
ON WEATHER DOWN HERE AT THE SURFACE. WITH LARGELY OFFSHORE WINDS
AND ONLY A TINY 9-SECOND SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST...SEAS SHOULD
AVERAGE 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS KEEPS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL EXPERIENCE
NEARLY EVERY COMPASS DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE FROM THE W/NW...BEFORE SLOWLY VEERING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY TO THE E/NE...AND THEN VEERING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DURING
TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION.
THANKS TO THESE LIGHT WINDS...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE GENERALLY 1-2
FT...WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE GROUPS COMPRISING THE
SPECTRUM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL




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