Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 300712
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
312 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture associated with the remnants of Bonnie will be very slow
to leave the area even as the actual system does by Tuesday.
The weather may then turn even more unsettled by Friday and into
the weekend as a cold front drops into the area and stalls.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...The weak circulation that was Bonnie will move
very slowly northward across eastern South Carolina through tonight.
Water vapor imagery shows a plume of deep moisture streaming across
the Atlantic and onshore N of what is left of Bonnie. Steering flow
remains weak and so the forecast remains one of persistence. Thus,
the risk for showers and thunderstorms will remain high through the
period with heating helping to agitate the environment. The risk for
heavy rain will still be with us as well given the depth of moisture
with precipitable water values on the order of 1.75 to 2 inches. It
will not be raining all the time and in fact, not even most of the
time, but bouts of showers and a few thunderstorms will produce
heavy downpours which could temporarily cause water to pond in low-
lying and poor drainage areas.

Skies will be mostly cloudy to variably cloudy with highs near 80 or
lower 80s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to near 70.


.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...The remnants of Bonnie will be drifting
northward and should be creeping along the Cape Fear coast Tue and
Tue night and then up across the Outer Banks Wed and Wed Night. This
does eventually allow for some weak subsidence and drier air aloft.
However...more in the way of heating will stimulate the atmosphere
and moisture combined with instability will allow for the development
of showers and a few thunderstorms. There may be slightly less
coverage of convection Wed and Wed night as compared to Tue and Tue
night, but even that may be optimistic given increasing low-level
convergence along a developing seabreeze.

Highs both days will be in the 80s...warmest Wed. Lows will be in
the upper 60s to near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As of 3 AM Monday...It looks like the long term may be summed up as
a period that goes from being somewhat unsettled to one that ends up
even more active. Early on we will be in a pattern of very light
flow through much of the column, not unlike during the heart of
summer. A weak mid level ridge will try to build over the area while
the surface pressure pattern remains quite poorly defined. There
will also be quite a bit of low level moisture remaining following
our brush with Bonnie. Saturday is when the aforementioned transition
to even more unsettled weather is expected. A cold front will drop
into the area and stall. This will argue for increased rain chances
while more prevalent cloud cover tempers afternoon highs. This
boundary  may be weakening over the area on Monday but another one
may be already poised to move into its place as Great Lakes
troughiness deepens.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 06Z...Expect periods of low cigs, with an increasing risk
for showers and a few thunderstorms as heating gets underway this
morning. Periods of mainly MVFR conditions are expected through
the valid TAF period as Tropical Depression Bonnie creeps
northward. Otherwise expect VFR.

East-southeast winds around 5 kt will become south-southeast
around 12 kt after daybreak and then light during the evening
hours.

Extended Outlook...Expect unsettled weather through Thursday with
possible SHRA/isolated TSRA and TEMPO MVFR/IFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

As of 300 AM Monday...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the
northern waters into tonight. A Small Craft Should Exercise Caution
headline has been posted for the southern waters into this eve.
Tropical Depression Bonnie or its remnants will move northward,
creeping across eastern South Carolina through tonight. The wind
direction today will be S, veering to SW overnight. Across the
southern waters, as the weak circulation that was Bonnie lifts N,
the wind direction is expected to veer to a more westerly direction
overnight. The highest wind speeds will be 15 to 20 kt. Seas will be
4 to 5 ft across the southern waters and 3 to 6 ft across the
northern waters.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

As of 300 AM Monday...The remnants of Bonnie will be lifting
slowly N across the North Carolina waters Tue and Tue night and then
further NE and away from the area Wed and Wed night. As the weak
circulation lifts N, winds will veer. SW or WSW winds will dominate
Tue with WNW to NW winds Tue night. A weak gradient should allow the
seabreeze circulation to dictate the wind direction Wed, with winds
returning to SW or S. The strongest winds will be Tue, up to 15 to
20 kt. The highest seas will be Tue, up to 3 to 4 ft with some 5 ft
seas lingering across the northern waters. Winds and seas will
thereafter steadily lower.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

As of 3 AM Monday...   A light southwesterly flow becomes
established on Thursday. Any remnants of Bonnie will be off to our
northeast and a weak surface troughiness may be left behind down the
coast. Otherwise there shouldn`t be much to give shape to the
surface pressure gradient making for some light and somewhat
variable winds. The approach from the northwest of a cold front
Friday should make local winds more decidedly southwesterly but an
increase in wind/gradient/seas is not anticipated.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT this morning for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ110.
     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NCZ106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJD/SGL



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