Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
FXUS63 KJKL 201952
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
352 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 352 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016
Shower activity continues to develop across the area this
afternoon with a few thunderstorms thrown in for good measure.
Have been seeing some gusty winds with the stronger and more
organized thunderstorms, generally up to 25 mph but would expect
a few places are seeing gusts to around 30 mph. Have also received
a couple reports of small hail, anywhere from pea to nickel in
Sfc low pressure is getting more organized now and is currently
moving through the Commonwealth. A cold front will be pulled
through the area this evening as the low continues to track off
to the northeast tonight. We still expect around three quarters of
an inch of total rainfall across much of the area on average from
this afternoon through Friday morning. Showers will taper off
pretty quickly Friday afternoon.
High pressure will begin to nose its way into the region by late
Friday, allowing a much cooler air mass to settle down over the
region by late Friday night. At this time feel there will be too
much cloud cover for the threat of frost Friday night into
Saturday morning, and gradient winds appear to be a bit to high as
well. Consequently will leave any mention of frost out of the
short term for now.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 352 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016
Chilly, unseasonable air will be in place in the wake of an upper
trough passage on Saturday, with afternoon highs in the middle and
upper 50s. An upper ridge will then begin building into the central
plains Sunday before slowly making its way into the Ohio Valley by
mid-week. This will keep eastern Kentucky in northwest flow through
Tuesday, while remaining on the back edge of a broad upper trough.
The upper level flow pattern is then expected to moderate and become
more zonal through the remainder of the period.
At the surface, Saturday will serve as the coolest day we have had
since May, with afternoon highs mainly in the mid 50s. Skies are
expected to clear through the day on Saturday, setting the stage for
a chilly night. Valley temps are expected to drop into the 30s by
Sunday morning. Heights will rebound on Sunday as a surface ridge
builds into the lower Mississippi Valley. A weak cold front looks to
move through early on Monday, with little consequence other than a
slight increase in clouds and a wind shift. Dry weather will hold on
through Wednesday, before another cold front takes aim at the area
Thursday. Seasonable temperatures are anticipated with lows
generally in the 40s (mid and upper 30s in the valleys at times) and
highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016
Seeing an increase in shower activity over the past hour as low
pressure moves up the Ohio River Valley. A trailing cold front
aligned along the Ohio River is beginning to move southeast
towards our area. The cold front should pass our TAF sites from
northwest to southeast late this afternoon through this evening.
Thunderstorms will be possible at any of our terminals until
FROPA. In general expect CIGs to drop into IFR/LIFR territory post
frontal. VSBYs will generally drop into MVFR categories with
showers, possibly into IFR with post frontal showers and pre-
frontal thunderstorms. Winds will veer from the southwest at 5 to
10 kts to the northwest behind the front at around 10 kts. Gusty
winds to around 25 kts will be possible in the vicinity of any
thunderstorms and briefly with and just behind the cold front.