Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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521
FXUS63 KJKL 310751
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
351 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 351 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

Conditions remain calm and clear as of 3am, with high pressure still
in general control of eastern KY. A weak cold front is currently
slowly pushing southeast across central IN and north central OH.
Most of the convection along this frontal boundary has deteriorated
with loss of daytime heating, though a swath of clouds remains just
northeast of the CWA. This frontal boundary will slowly push farther
south throughout the day, reaching the Ohio River by 21Z. This will
allow some clouds to make it into the region, mainly across the
northwest half. Afternoon heating may also spark some more showers
and thunderstorms, but most scattered activity will remain north of
I-64 closer to the best lift along the frontal boundary.

The cold front will continue on its slow southward path across the
state tonight and into Thursday morning. This will keep isolated to
scattered chances of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
overnight and into the morning tomorrow, with chances lingering in
the higher terrain throughout the day due to upslope flow and closer
proximity to the exiting system. Overall, there is a lack of
moisture with this system, so QPF amounts will be unimpressive.
Winds will actually become more NWrly today ahead of the frontal
passage, and will remain northerly after its passage as well. This
will work to pull in much cooler air into the region, especially
post frontal when the pull of northerly air will be deeper. While
temperatures today will remain in the upper 80s to around 90, post-
frontal temperatures on Thursday will only reach the upper 70s to
around 80.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

The bulk of the extended period looks to be dry and much cooler
than the weather we have been experiencing the past couple of
weeks. A weak cold front will be exiting the area on Thursday. The
limited lift and moisture associated with the front should be just
enough to spark scattered showers and storms across eastern
Kentucky. The precipitation should be exiting the area by late
Thursday afternoon, with the area being rain free by 0Z Friday. A
much cooler and drier air mass will then spill into the region
behind the departed front. We should then see by far the most
pleasant weather of the entire summer Thursday and Friday, with
highs on each day only topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s
with low humidity. A gradual warming trend should then begin over
the weekend, as mostly clear skies and light winds allow strong
surface heating to occur. We should see near normal temperatures
from Saturday onward, with daily maxes in the 80s on tap.
Overnight lows Thursday night and Friday night are expected to
fall into the upper 50s for most locations. The rest of the week
should see lows in the low to mid 60s across the area. The first
day of meteorological fall, September 1st, should truly feel like
fall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

With an area of high pressure in control, VFR conditions are
holding strong across eastern KY. Skies should remain mostly clear
and winds light through much of the night. None of the TAF sites
saw rainfall from earlier today, so kept with only mentioning some
MVFR visibilities at SME and SJS towards dawn. The fog will burn
off between 12 and 14z Wednesday, with scattered cumulus likely
forming by the afternoon in addition to some thicker high level
clouds. Isolated convection will threaten later in the afternoon
as a cold front approaches the area from the northwest, and should
continue into the evening. Winds will average 5 kts or less
through the period.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW



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