Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 290649 AAC

National Weather Service Jackson KY
249 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

Issued at 242 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2017

An outflow boundary is sagging into the northern part of the CWA
while a weak cold front is sagging south of the OH River. Isolated
to scattered showers are occurring mainly in the far north near
this outflow boundary. Pops over the next few hours were adjusted
for this outflow and cold front moving across the area considering
the limited instability. Some scattered pops were used over the
northeast and east for this with isolated pops elsewhere.
Coverage of thunder should be rather limited, but opted to carry
isolated chances for thunder as well. Otherwise, hourly
temperatures and dewpoints were freshened up based on recent
observations with no other changes at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 1114 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017

Current conditions across the area feature waning if not
completely tapped instability as just some isolated showers
remain. Assistance from the approaching front appears to be only
be enough for a few showers so updated to remove thunder from the
forecast for the night and lowered pops to slight chance for the
night. Also input the latest observations and trended them for the
next few hours. Also added patchy to areas of fog to the forecast,
especially in the west where there will be better clearing current
satellite shows some eroding in central KY. A new zfp has been
sent out for this update.

UPDATE Issued at 742 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017

Updated the forecast to input the latest observations and trend
them into the evening hours. Ahead of the front in eastern
Kentucky, instability is on the wane as id evidence in the latest
returns and have gone with isolated showers through the early
evening hours. Hi res models do show the possibility of a few
thunderstorms popping with the aided forcing from the front moving
across I-75 at around 02Z and so have left a slight to low chance
of thunder as that crosses the area. This should dissipate as
well as it crosses the area with any chance of thunder ending by
06Z. A new zfp has been sent to address this.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 352 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017

The latest surface map features a cold front aligned from
northern Indiana down across southeast Missouri, with another
surface boundary moving across the northern Plains. Aloft, an
upper level low continues to spiral across southern Manitoba, with
cyclonic flow established across the northern Plains and Great
Lakes regions.

Eastern Kentucky has been enjoying a much quieter day, as plenty
of clouds have kept temperatures down, with only a few low-topped
showers having popped up in the last hour or so. This suppressed
activity should continue through early this evening, before
temporarily diminishing, before the cold front drops southeast
across the area later tonight into early Monday morning. Have
allowed for an uptick in POPs, with a few thunderstorms possible,
although could see the thunder not happening at all, given the
more limited instability in place. Lows will range from around 60
north of I-64, to the mid 60s near the TN/KY border.

Shower activity will dry up through dawn, as the cold front exits
off to the southeast. Monday will feature a drier and milder day,
with temperatures peaking near the 80 degree mark. Dry weather
should hold on into Monday night, as we await the next cold front
approaching from the northwest. Lows will range from 55 to 60.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 352 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017

Unsettled period expected through the extended. An upper level
trough will be rotating across Ontario during the day Tuesday, where
it will remain in place through Thursday, before slowly shifting
eastward Friday and Saturday, the exiting off the Atlantic Coastline
Saturday night. As a result, expect longwave troughing across the
Ohio Valley through much of the period. A strong shortwave will move
across the Central Plains Friday, reaching the mid-Mississippi
Valley by Saturday, then weakening as it shifts eastward into our
region Saturday night into Sunday.

Several surface frontal features are expected to impact the state
during the extended as well, including a developing cold front which
will traverse eastward through the CWA during the day Tuesday, in
conjunction with the longwave troughing pattern aloft, a surface
boundary that will develop to our west Wednesday, and another cold
front which will stall out across Kentucky Saturday into Saturday.
These will translate to scattered precip throughout much of the
period, with best instability and thunder development expected
during peak heating in the afternoon/evening, and along any frontal
boundaries (Friday afternoon through Saturday).

Temperatures will generally be pretty close to seasonable normals
during the period. Expect upper 70s to just above 80 degrees for
highs. Overnight lows will show a bit more variability based on if
there is cloud cover around and wind flow. Tuesday night and
Wednesday night are both fairly clear with generally 50s expected
(can`t rule out some ridge/valley differences as well), however
Thursday night will be warmer in the low 60s thanks to increasing
cloud cover and southerly flow. Low 60s can be expected through the
remainder of the forecast period as cloud cover and southerly flow
remains in place.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)

VFR is observed at this time and VFR should continue for at least
the first 2 or 3 hours of the period even with an isolated to
shra or tsra possibly impacting one of the TAF sites. As the cold
front moves through overnight, some stratocu or stratus may
develop along with some fog, and a period of MVFR is possible
generally between 7Z and 13Z. This should mix out shortly after
sunrise with VFR developing areawide and prevailing through the
end of the period. VFR conditions will then be expected into the
day tomorrow. Winds should generally remain at 10KT or less
through the period.




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