Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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599
FXUS63 KJKL 211130 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
730 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2017

Have freshened up the hourly temperatures and dew points through
this morning to account for the fog dissipation. Otherwise the
forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2017

Surface high pressure rules across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.
Aloft, an upper level ridge is expanding across the Mississippi
valley, with some troughiness lingering across the Eastern
Seaboard.

The models are in good agreement with the ridge gradually
strengthening across the Ohio Valley through the short term,
bringing above normal temperatures and drier weather.

For today, eastern Kentucky will start out foggy once again in the
valleys. Some short wave energy passing south on the leeward side
of the ridge axis will allow for a threat of mainly isolated
convection across our area today. Convection will die off quickly
into this evening, with dry weather to follow as the ridge builds
in stronger through Friday.

High temperatures will average in the mid 80s each day, with
Friday a degree or so warmer than today. Lows tonight will
average in the low to mid 60s, with areas of dense valley fog
setting up.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2017

The first full week of fall looks to stay fairly mild as strong
ridging dominates over the eastern US from Friday night through
next Wednesday. Highs will continue to run in the low to mid 80s
through this period with overnight lows generally around 60. Areas
of locally dense valley fog will continue to be seen each morning
through Wednesday.

Looking beyond Wednesday, models are in fairly decent agreement on
bringing a cold front across Kentucky next Thursday and then
bringing a push of much cooler weather for the following weekend.
Thus, this may be the last full week of real warmth before the
pattern shifts to a cooler one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2017

LIFR or worse fog will lift and dissipate through 14z, with most
of the affected TAF sites clearing by around 13z. Scattered
cumulus ranging from 3 to 5k feet agl will develop during the day
and a stray shower or storm may be seen during the afternoon.
These should be isolated enough to keep out a mention in the TAFs.
Skies will clear out once again tonight, with LIFR or worse fog
forming mainly in the valleys. Winds will be light and variable
through the period.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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