Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 170419
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1119 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 17/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DECREASING WITH JUST A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE AS AIR MASS STABILIZES. WITH THE STABLE CONDITIONS AND
WET GROUNDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
COULD PROVIDE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE SUNRISE. ONCE AGAIN A
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY...THIS SHOULD
ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY 17/18Z.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECLINE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST, HOWEVER OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST SCT STORMS CAN STILL BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. TOUCHED UP THE POPS AND TEMPS THIS
EVENING TO ALIGN WITH CURRENT TRENDS, BUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ENCROACHED INTO THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING ALL EXCEPT CENTRAL LOUISIANA
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS BARELY
DETECTABLE FROM THE RED RIVER OF TEXAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR BAJA WILL BE LIFTED AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE AND THEN UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BRING THE MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY.

SHORT TERM...UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY ALONG
WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GFS AND EURO ARE HANDLING THIS WELL SO CHOSE NOT TO STRAY FROM THE
CHANCE POPS TNITE AND LIKELY CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. AS CAN BE EXPECTED, TEMPS WILL
BE WARMER THAN CLIMO TNITE AND LOOK TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE AS WELL. THOSE TEMPS SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED LOWER THAN
CLIMO AND GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...HAD TO RAISE THE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS POISED TO CONTINUE
A TRAJECTORY INTO OUR AREA BY WAY OF THE NORTHWEST. A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY WILL
BRING OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH. MOST OF THE POLAR AIR WILL BE
SHUNTED OFF TO THE WEST HOWEVER SOME WELCOME DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  85  73  82  70 /  50  40  20  60  20
KBPT  74  85  75  84  72 /  40  60  20  60  40
KAEX  71  88  70  84  68 /  60  30  10  50  20
KLFT  73  85  72  84  71 /  50  40  10  60  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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