Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 061145
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
545 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
WENT AHEAD AND CUT BACK THE HARD FREEZE WARNING TO JUST THE
EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES. LOOKS LIKE THESE AREAS WILL BE THE ONLY
ONES TO SEE AIR TEMPERATURE AT 25F DEGREES OR BELOW FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT TIME.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015/

AVIATION...EAST TEXAS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
FLOW WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION. VFR WITH CIRRUS FROM THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JETS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY STARTING
OUT...DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY AS THE ADVECTION WANES FROM THE WEST.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. DESPITE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND WINDS STAYING
UP...AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE FROM TO FREEZING AND BELOW ALL THE WAY
DOWN TO THE COAST. WHAT THE WINDS HAVE DONE IS KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS...WITH KAEX REPORTING 26F IS THE
CLOSEST TO VERIFYING. FREEZE WARNING IS DEFINITELY IN GOOD
SHAPE...AND WILL LEAVE THE HARD FREEZE WARNING ALONE FOR
NOW...ALTHOUGH THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
VERIFYING. THE WINDS MAY BE KEEPING AIR TEMPERATURES UP SOME...BUT
IT IS CREATING VERY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S. WIND READINGS AROUND SUNRISE WILL PROBABLY REACH THE MID
TEENS BUT SHOULD STAY ABOVE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNSHINE SHOULD BE NOTED TODAY THROUGH THE OCCASIONAL UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND WILL HELP "WARM" TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 50F TO THE
LOWER 50S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
LIGHTER WINDS...AND AGAIN JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS WILL
HELP PROVIDE ONE MORE NIGHT OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO
I-10. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS OF 25F WILL BE
REACHED...AND WITH FREEZE HAPPENING EVERYWHERE TONIGHT...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ISSUING A NPW FOR A FREEZE WARNING...AND WILL MENTION
IN THE HWO.

SOUTHERN JET STREAM WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A RATHER WET WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT ANY FROZEN
PRECIP.

FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
ISENTROPIC OVER-RIDING RAINS BEGINNING DURING THE DAY. SOME
HEAVIER RAINS COULD MOVE IN ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF
THE BAJA OPENS UP AND MOVES ACROSS...MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
ON THAT DAY...HELPING TO INCREASE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO...PWAT
VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SO THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS TEXAS...AFTER THAT...WITH
OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT FROM IT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
THE DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS HELPING
TO CAUSE SOME MIXING AND BRINGING DOWN SOME STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
SETTLE INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY ON
SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  32  61  44  60 /   0   0  10  20  60
KBPT  54  35  61  46  59 /   0   0  10  20  60
KAEX  49  28  60  38  57 /   0   0  10  10  50
KLFT  50  31  62  43  65 /   0   0  10  10  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AVOYELLES...RAPIDES...VERNON.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST
     CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
     LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...
     SOUTHERN NEWTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







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