Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 281143
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
643 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CLR SKIES THIS AM WITH A BIT OF FOG THAT WILL BURN-OFF IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR VFR WX INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SCTD SHWRS AND TSTMS THIS AFTN ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE SE U.S. RIDGING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...KEEPING A SE FLOW OVER THE
REGION. RADAR SHOWING SOMETHING DIFFERENT FROM THE LAST TWO MORNINGS
..NO ECHOS! MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS REMAINING ACROSS NW TX/W OK
THIS MORNING.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES...AFTERNOON
HEATING AND THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT MAY BECOME THE DOMINATE FEATURE THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERATING 30-40% CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.

BY FRI...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE
TROF OVER TX APPROACHES THE REGION. WITH THIS ADDED SUPPORT ALOFT...YOU
GUESSED IT...SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY
OVER SE TX...BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...A LONGER WAVE TROF OVER NM/W TX WILL MOVE EAST...
ESSENTIALLY CREATING A DIVERGENT PATTERN OVER SE TX/LA. UNFORTUNATELY...THE
CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE BY SAT AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUN.

THE EXTENDED GETS A BIT MURKY...AS THE GFS WANTS TO CUT OFF THE LONGWAVE
TROF INTO AN ALMOST VERTICALLY STACK LOW OVER AR/N LA MON-WED. ECMWF...NOT
SO MUCH...BUT KEEPS A BROAD TROF OVER THE REGION. BOTH SOLNS KEEP ENHANCED
PRECIP CHANCES...AS ADVERTISED BY THE SUPERBLEND. THUS...CONTINUED
THE NEVER ENDING TREND OF HIGHER POPS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

DML

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  88  71  87  70 /  40  20  50  20
LCH  87  74  86  73 /  30  20  40  20
LFT  88  72  86  71 /  30  20  40  20
BPT  87  74  86  73 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...19



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