Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLCH 290451
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1151 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.AVIATION...RADAR NOW CLEAR OF ANY PRECIP. SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS
SHOWING MVFR CLOUDINESS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH JUST A FEW
BREAKS OVER ACADIANA. EXPECTING THESE BREAKS TO FILL IN...WITH
ALL SOUTHERN TERMINALS SEEING CEILINGS EASE DOWN TO WITHIN IFR.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO LIMIT ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT LCH...BPT AND AEX. SOME FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT BOTH ARA AND LFT WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TOWARD MID-MORNING...WITH VFR THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DID TACK ON A PROB30
GROUP FOR THUNDER FRIDAY EVENING AT LCH...AEX AND BPT WITH THE
APPROACH OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MSTR AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
NWD MOVING SEA BREEZE AND WWD MOVING OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER
SE LA RESULTED IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER EAST/SOUTH CENTRAL LA. THIS ACTIVITY
HAS WANED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST HR OR SO...AND HAVE ONLY LEFT
SMALL POPS IN THE FCST THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

FCST WAS OTHERWISE GENERALLY ON TARGET...WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

AVIATION...RADAR DEPICTING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF LFT. ACTIVITY FIRING ALONG WEAK SEABREEZE. A FEW LESSER
SHOWERS FURTHER TO THE WEST ALONG BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF I-10.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. LOOKING FOR CLOUDS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
THROUGH MVFR INTO IFR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. SUFFICIENT
LIFT/MIXING WITH JET SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL MAINTAIN NO PRECIP THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE AT
ALL TERMINALS WITH DRYER MID-LEVEL SETTLING OVER THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES HOWEVER WILL BE RAMPING UP CONSIDERABLY FOR THE WEEKEND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A VERY WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REACHED INTO THE
UPPER 80S INLAND TO THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
THE I-10 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LAKE CHARLES AND LAFAYETTE. A BETTER
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS OF LOWER ST MARTIN...IBERIA...AND ST MARY PARISHES.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS DIURNALLY HEAT DRIVEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

A WARM TONIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
RISE ON THE BACK OF SOUTHERLY RICH GULF MOISTURE. JUST LIKE THIS
AFTERNOON ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES...SO WILL THE NIGHT GO HAND
IN HAND...ABNORMALLY WARM PERHAPS 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN USUAL
MORNING LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA.

WELL...LET US STAY FOCUSED ON THE BIGGER PICTURE...A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES IS ON THE MOVE AND
HEADED TO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PUMP UP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS
EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN MAY GET INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. QPF FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME DO NOT SUPPORT FFA ACROSS OUR AREA
YET. THE DAYS 1 THROUGH 3 FORECAST QPF WILL NEED TO COME UP A
COUPLE OF MORE INCHES IN QPF TOTALS TO INITIATE THE FFA. FOR
NOW...WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT CREW GET A BETTER LOOK AT UPDATED QPF
TOTALS TO SEE WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN MAY LAYUP. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY
GENERATE SQUALL LINE OF CONVECTION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. KEEP ABREAST OF THE WEATHER BY LISTENING TO YOUR LOCAL TV
NEWS ONLINE WEATHER...NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR CELL PHONE WEATHER
APPS.

A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL INTO
THE NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY AND THEREFORE OVERRUNNING OF RAIN
MAKES FOR A UNSTABLE WET PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. WE FINALLY GET A
BREAK IN THE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

SO IN SUMMARY...BUSY WEEKEND OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER WEATHER...THEN THE WET PATTERN LINGERS INTO TUESDAY
AFTER THE MONDAY COOL FRONT STALLS IN THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS
WITH  KEEPING IT CLOUDY AND DREARY.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A MAJOR SYSTEM
SYSTEM. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR MOVES OVER THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A COOL FRONT SAGS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE COOL FRONT WILL STALL ALLOWING FOR OVERRUNNING OF RAIN THROUGH
THE END OF THE FIVE DAY FORECAST ENDING TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  86  70  81 /  20  20  50  60
LCH  73  83  72  79 /  20  20  50  60
LFT  73  85  73  81 /  20  10  20  60
BPT  74  83  72  80 /  20  20  60  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR GMZ450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$


AVIATION...23



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.