Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 300242
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
942 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Radar showing earlier SHRA/TSRA from this afternoon and early
evening has dissipated over most of the area, with some re-
development beginning over the coastal waters. This should be the
trend with higher shower and thunderstorm chances across the
coastal waters overnight, with less chances across S LA/SE TX
coastal parishes/counties overnight.

Tropical Depression #9 continues across the SE Gulf of Mexico. The
increased gradient over the Gulf between the surface high over the
Southern U.S. and the depression is keeping mostly east to east-
northeast winds over the coastal waters. This in turn is keeping
coastal tides about 1 foot above astronomical predictions. With
high tide reaching 2 feet MLLW already, coastal locations can
continue to expect tidal ranges near 1 foot MLLW at low tide, and
near 3 feet MLLW at high tide through the next couple of days.
This should remain below coastal flooding criterior, but with the
abundance of freshwater river flooding still going on south of
I-10 in south Louisiana, minor flooding further inland across the
marshes and low lying areas will continue with these higher tides
slowing the draining process the next couple of days as well.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 734 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

AVIATION...
Looking for a quiet night as showers are moving off to the west.
VFR through sunrise. Looking for a lot less radar activity for
tmrw.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures this afternoon remained mostly below normal with highs
in the mid 80s within the thick clouded areas to the lower 90s where
several hours of sunshine prevailed across the northeast part of
central Louisiana.

The radar showed a lot less activity across the coastal region
with an increase in coverage over the interior half of the county
warning area. A dissipating band of rain was noted across south
central Louisiana near Lafayette and New Iberia where morning
rains were coming to an end.

The main culprit for the above normal rain over the past few days
has been a pesky upper level low which has been meandering off the
southeast Texas coast. The upper level low is currently southeast
of Galveston and will begin to drift southwestward along the
middle and then lower Texas coast by the end of the week.

This will likely be the last day of widespread rains as drier air
begins to filter in tonight into midweek as the upper level low
moves away from our area and continental upper level high pressure
begins to build over the central plains for the remainder of the
week. The ECMWF/GFS models both show upper level troughing
developing across the eastern United States which should help to
finally pick up TD number 9 and move it well away from our area by
midweek. TD number 9 is not expected to have any lasting impacts on
our weather if the current forecast track holds true.

Our easterly surface winds will go northerly tonight as surface high
pressure begins to build down from the north through the week. The
atmosphere will continue to dry out and therefore we do expect more
comfortable humidity levels to begin tonight and continue through
Saturday. Daytime temperatures initially will remain near normal
Tuesday and Wednesday...but then a gradual cooling can be expected
as cool and dry continental air works into the region. A cool
front is expected to push into the area on Friday and stall in the
gulf of Mexico early Saturday. Southerly flow returns later in the
day on Saturday and a return to more seasonal temperatures and
pops will return to start next week.

MARINE...
A upper level low over the northwest Gulf of Mexico will begin to
slowly drift southwest along the middle and then lower Texas coast
by the end of the week. Rain chances will be on the decline for the
remainder of the week as drier air begins to filter in. A light to
moderate east to northeast wind will prevail through Saturday
morning before finally returning to onshore flow over the
remainder of the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  94  74  95 /  20  20  10  10
LCH  76  93  76  95 /  20  30  10  20
LFT  75  92  76  93 /  20  20  10  20
BPT  75  92  76  94 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...08



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