Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 301120
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
620 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING CLR SKIES AND NE WINDS. VFR FLIGHT RULES TO HOLD THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE NE FLOW BEHIND IT.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPS
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS C LA...WITH LOWER/MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.

THE SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIP EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO DIVE ACROSS THE SE U.S. FRI & SAT...A
MUCH STRONGER RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT AND SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL
BARREL SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GULF.
THIS WILL BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH MID 30S TO NEAR 40 EXPECTED BY SUN MORNING. WITH
VIRTUALLY NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...NO PRECIP EXPECTED WITH SECONDARY
FROPA. THUS...NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE WITH ONGOING FORECAST FROM
YESTERDAY.

THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST BY SUN AFTERNOON AND MON...WITH
RETURN FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS THRU TUE OF NEXT WEEK. BY TUE...CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA COME BACK WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF
AND FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH BEST CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA LATE TUE INTO
WED. DIDN`T GO HIGHER THAN 40% FOR CONFIDENCE REASONS...AS STILL
SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
HOWEVER...BOTH ARE NOW SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC...WITH
POSSIBLY INJECTION OF THE REMNANTS OF AN EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE.
STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO TRY AND PINPOINT AREAS OF MAX PRECIP CHANCES
HERE.

DML

MARINE...
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL BEHIND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. A STRONGER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH
FRIDAY...WITH MUCH STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. SCA WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS BY FRI
AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  53  75  43  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
KBPT  76  55  75  46  62 /  10   0   0   0   0
KAEX  75  50  72  38  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
KLFT  76  51  74  41  60 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$








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