Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 012323
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
623 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
02/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE
AND GENERALLY DRY AIR REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS WILL BE NELY LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A RATHER WARM...BUT OVERALL COMFORTABLE AUGUST DAY...ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN
INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED JUST
BEYOND THE COASTAL AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. THUS...NORTHERLY WINDS
AND A RATHER DRY AIR MASS IS THE RESULT...WITH ONLY CONVECTION
NOTED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN MARINE ZONE. WITH THE DRY AIR AND
MIXING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S.
SO DESPITE AIR TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 90S...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE KEEPING THE HEAT INDEX
NEAR THE AIR TEMPERATURE.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
FURTHER WEAKEN...WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OUT WEST. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ACROSS THE
REGION...AND ALLOW THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO COME BACK
NORTH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD JUST MAKE IT THE COAST BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
THE LOW RH VALUES ON SUNDAY...WITH MAYBE ENOUGH MOISTURE REACHING
THE FAR SOUTHERN POINTS OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN DURING DAYTIME
HEATING FOR A SHOWER OR TWO.

MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS BETTER ON MONDAY...WITH A RETURN TO GULF
MOISTURE AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE GET GOING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...SURFACE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE FLORIDA
COAST...WITH LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS AND GULF MOISTURE WITH HUMID
CONDITIONS. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE NOTED...WITH A SHORT
WAVE COMING AROUND THE RIDGE TO HELP INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND BUILD INTO THE
REGION...WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

RUA

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE
DOWN INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...KEEP OFFSHORE FLOW AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED JUST OUTSIDE THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AND REACHING THE COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN OCCUR WITH A
BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS.

LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH A DAILY CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  96  71  98 /   0   0   0  10
LCH  71  96  75  95 /   0  10  10  20
LFT  72  96  75  96 /   0  10  10  20
BPT  71  97  74  95 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...OZONE ACTION DAY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ201-215-
     216.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...24


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