Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 220214
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
914 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS EVENING`S NAM SOLUTION DEPICTS A COASTAL FRONT RE-FORMING OVER
THE COASTAL MARSHES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE AFTERNOON GFS SOLUTION DEPICTS PVA LIFT MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE COASTAL MARSHES TONIGHT.

WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE THE ZONE PACKAGE IS ON TARGET.

JT
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECAY ACROSS THE REGION AND
WILL BE GONE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ISOLD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN AGAIN TO A PORTION OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE RIDGING ALOFT
AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING AS
DIURNAL HEATING WANES.

STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS COMBINED WITH
LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90`S. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 100-105 EACH AFTERNOON
WHICH...WHILE BRUTAL...FALLS BELOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF
108.

THE FEVER BREAKS BY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WEAKENING THE
RIDGE AND ENHANCING CONVECTION AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST WHILE SUPPRESSING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  93  76  93  76 /  20  20  10  10  10
KBPT  77  94  77  94  76 /  20  20  10  10  10
KAEX  73  96  74  96  75 /  10  20  10  10  10
KLFT  75  94  76  95  76 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$









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