Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
146
FXUS64 KLUB 270906
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
406 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Partially stacked upper low over southern Colorado this morning
will make slow progress northeastward through the day before
relocating to central Nebraska by midnight. A weak cold front
already pushing south through the area before dawn is forecast to
wash out and be replaced by dry and very breezy westerly flow by
midday. Dryline should easily be scoured east of the forecast area
in this pattern. Despite cyclonic flow aloft all day and cooling
mid- level temps, the nearest upper moisture/saturated ascent will
reside well north of the region closer to the upper low and its
associated cold pocket. As the upper low pivots northeast tonight,
a more definitive cold front will drop south ahead of unseasonably
cool lows in the lower 50s for much of the Caprock.

.LONG TERM...
Quiet weather in store for Saturday as a weak shortwave ridge
moves overhead late in the day. Heading into Sunday morning, the
ridge will be east of the forecast area and we will see the return
of southwesterly flow aloft. This will deepen the lee surface
trough during the day Sunday backing winds to the south to
southeast at the surface and allow low-level moisture to surge
northward. The dryline will push west into eastern New Mexico and
models hint at a series of weak shortwaves moving over the area.
Models continue to indicate that there could be some precipitation
development early in the day across the southern half of the
forecast area with additional development later in the day across
the northern half. The NAM tries to develop a convective complex
Sunday evening in the Texas Panhandle and slides it south into our
area while the other models are hinting at more widespread
convective development over the region. Once again, we should see
ample CAPE across the region but deep layer shear will be lacking
thanks to being between the departing ridge and the approaching
trough/closed low that swings out of the southwestern United
States. Still cannot rule out some isolated severe storms due to
the instability but bigger issue may be slow storm motions and
associated locally heavy rainfall.

Rain chances will then persist through much of next week as the
trough remains stuck over the southwestern U.S. until possibly
next weekend depending on which model you look at. Also helping to
boost rain chances will be a cold front that will arrive sometime
Tuesday serving as a focus for convective development and also
low-level lift. Precipitation chances and coverage will change
moving through next week as convection any one day will impact the
next day`s forecast. This means that we will not see continuous
precipitation through the forecast but chances will likely remain
in the chance category through the end of this forecast cycle.
Likewise, severe weather chances will vary from day to day. Ample
cloud cover and precipitation will once again knock temperatures
down to or below normal for this time of year through the end of
the forecast as well.

Jordan

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

93/14



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.