Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 291120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
-SHRA NOTED SOUTH OF KLBB EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY
REMAIN THERE. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA TO
DEVELOP NEAR KLBB AND EVEN POSSIBLY KPVW LATER THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A
MENTION AT THIS TIME. WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. A
LINGERING COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE WINDS TO BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.Z DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO OUR WEST HAS PROMOTED NWRLY
FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT OF A BIT OF WEAKNESS ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE UA RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT...AN MCS /ALBEIT WANING
WITH TIME/ HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO TRACK SSE ACROSS ERN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING...THUS THE BRUNT OF THE CONVECTION REMAINING JUST WEST OF
THE CWA. ACROSS THE CWA...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
HAVE BEEN GENERATED BY A RATHER DIFFUSED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC
TROUGH DRAPED FROM THE SWRN ZONES TO THE NERN ZONES...HAVE FINALLY
DIMINISHED IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
REGENERATION OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR A BIT OF THE CONVECTION
ACROSS ERN NM SNEAKING INTO THE WRN ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT ENDURING RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL...SRN AND ERN ZONES LATER THIS AFTN-EVENING
/PWATS OF 1.00-1.50 INCHES/...COUPLED WITH THE WEAKNESS ACROSS THE
WRN PERIPHERY OF THE SAID RIDGE...DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION AND THE
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH TO RESULT IN
A CHANCE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...WHILE THE TTU
WRF AND THE GFS MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS LOCALES ON
THE CAPROCK. THIS CAN NOT BE IGNORE SO WILL INTRODUCE LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN ZONES...WITH 10-12 PERCENT
POPS NOTED ACROSS THE NRN ZONES DURING THE DAYTIME. ALTHOUGH LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE AFTN...SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE
RATHER WEAK...SO SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW ATTM.

GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF CLOUD COVER AND INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
NRLY SFC WINDS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS TODAY
/UPPER 80S ON THE CAPROCK TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OFF THE CAPROCK/...
FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SANDWICHED BETWEEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND A PERSISTENT WEST COAST TROUGH WILL RESULT IN HOT AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
COME IN THE VCNTY OF THE LEE SFC TROUGH ACROSS ERN NM TO THE WRN
PANHANDLE. CHANCES WILL BE SMALL ALTHOUGH WILL GROW SOME TOWARD
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH EDGES CLOSER TO
THE PLAINS. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE EARLY IN THE WEEK AND BETTER
CHANCES /STILL SMALL/ ARE OUT IN DAYS 6 AND 7...WILL LEAVE MENTION
OUT OF THE FCST ATTM. TEMPS NEAR MODEL BLEND LOOK REASONABLE...
GENERALLY NEAR TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND NEAR TO A
TOUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR LOWS AS DEW POINT TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S
THRU THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        88  60  91  62 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         89  61  92  60 /  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     88  62  92  62 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     89  64  91  62 /  20  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       89  65  93  64 /  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   88  63  92  63 /  20  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    89  65  92  65 /  20  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     95  67  97  67 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          93  67  96  65 /  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     97  70 100  67 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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