Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 242353

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
653 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Isolated convection will continue to decrease in coverage and
intensity across the region through the evening. In the
meantime, brief showers and thunderstorms will develop and
dissipate generally within hour`s timeframe. This short-lived
convection is expected far-removed from any of the area`s
terminals, KCDS, KPVW, nor KLBB. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
dominate the remainder of the forecast period. JH

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 312 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017/

We are seeing another round of convection this afternoon, with the
bulk of the activity arcing from the northern South Plains into the
central Rolling Plains as of 1930Z. This activity is focused along
a weakly confluent boundary within an airmass characterized by
1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, minimal CIN, weak shear and PWATS of
1.5+ inches. This environment will support slow-moving brief
pulse-type storms capable of locally heavy rain and strong
downburst winds. Individual cells won`t last very long though
additional redevelopment is likely on outflows before the coverage
begins to fade along with the instability moving into this
evening hours.

The large scale pattern that has supported the smattering of storms
the past couple of days and today will begin to change by tomorrow.
An upper ridge is forecast to begin to amplify squarely across the
region (from eastern New Mexico through Oklahoma), gradually pushing
the deeper layer moisture off to our west and northwest. Along with
increasing temperatures, rain chances will be on the decrease under
the ridge. However progged soundings still show minimal CIN and weak
instability during the afternoon, so we can`t rule out a rogue
shower/storm tomorrow afternoon/evening, though coverage should be
down significantly from this afternoon. In fact we only have PoPs in
the 5-10% range Tuesday, with the highest values across the
northern and northwestern zones. The upper level pattern won`t
change much into Wednesday, though an upper low traversing
southeast Canada will help draw the monsoon fetch eastward while
also sending a weak front through the central High Plains. A
prefrontal trough extending southwestward from the front may be
close to our northwestern zones where it could spark late day
convection. The frontal zone and monsoonal moisture will then
likely stall out across northeast New Mexico into the Panhandles
where storm chances will linger through much of the remainder of
the week. We will have to see if convective outflows can give the
effective frontal zone a boost southward, which would have
ramifications on temperatures and PoPs.

Moving into the weekend the retrograding upper ridge if forecast to
amplify over the central and southern Rockies. This will shift the
flow to northerly and northwesterly over West Texas while a digging
trough over the eastern CONUS may attempt to push a backdoor cold
front into the South Plains. This pattern would initially favor
increased storm chances across the northeastern/eastern zones
early this weekend before they expand/shift westward through late
weekend into early next week. Ahead of the front, above average
temperatures will persist, but north of the late week front as
well as behind the weekend backdoor front temperatures may edge
down to or a bit below average.



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