Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 251106

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
506 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2017

VFR will continue through the TAF period. However, breezy surface
winds will exist for the next several hours with even stronger
winds aloft creating low level wind shear.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2017/

A modest cold frontal push was underway early this morning with
wind speeds around 15 to 20 mph expected to wane before daybreak,
then ease upwards again with a bit of deeper mixing. Speeds will
gradually taper again this afternoon heading into light winds this
evening. Temperatures cooler today, yet will recover to about 6
degrees above normal for most areas by late afternoon.

For tonight, a weak surface high pressure ridge will straddle the
region with clear skies, dry air, light winds, and a slightly
chillier-than-guidance night likely, though also still a bit above
normal for late November. Surface flow returning to the south-
southwest early Sunday will lead into the next round of warming
with temperatures about 10 degrees above normal Sunday, and nearly
20 degrees warmer than normal Monday as surface flow may veer
slightly while a flattening upper ridge axis passes to the east
with southwest flow aloft spreading over.

Solutions are a little better aligned early Tuesday with a medium
strength upper trough crossing the Four-Corners towards the
northern Texas Panhandle, and showing signs even of closing off
several decameters below 570 DM at the 500 millibar level. System
is much further south of Friday evening`s wave with increasing
deep layered flow overspreading the region, though current timing
delays strongest winds aloft until late Monday night and early
Tuesday. This is offset of preferred afternoon peak winds, and may
factor into only a modest wind threat. Any adjustment of the
timing obviously will impact later wind forecasts. Confidence in
Fire Weather considerations is a bit lower than we might expect
given the southern track of this system just to our north, but
stay tuned as we further hone in on the timing of this system.

A stronger continental cold front will surge southward midday or
so Tuesday, with this projection, and we have adjusted slightly
lower on maximums for Tuesday, especially northern areas. Modest
recovery Wednesday will precede a brief yet potentially stronger
punch of cold air early Thursday. Another modest recovery next
Friday seems a reasonable outcome with next round of upper ridging
in advance of some type of low amplitude trough early next
weekend. All solutions favor the dry pattern continuing the next
seven days. RMcQueen




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