Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 290732
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
332 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY, T.S. ERIKA IS MOVING WEST OVER HAITI AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TONIGHT. A DRIER SLOT OF AIR ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
ERIKA WILL THEN MOVE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY BUT PWAT`S ARE STILL
FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO 2" WITH MORE OF A SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW
AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
WILL STEER MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST
TOWARDS THE INTERIOR AND LAKE REGIONS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ERIKA PASSES TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PENINSULA. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE STILL HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT OVERALL GENERAL TOTALS WILL BE
IN THE RANGE OF 2-4" THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IF OUTER BANDS SET UP ACROSS ANY ONE AREA. THIS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO TO UPDATE
POSSIBLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION, THE OUTER BANDS WILL BE
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW ORGANIZED ERIKA CAN BECOME BUT STRONG WIND
FIELDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING COULD SET
THE STAGE FOR MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

ERIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF BY MID WEEK AND
INTO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE
WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLOWER STEERING FLOW WITH MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER TYPE DIURNAL CYCLE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL START OFF EASTERLY AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WINDS AND SEAS FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF
ERIKA WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR INCREASING SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  81  90  79 /  60  70  70  80
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  80  88  79 /  60  70  80  80
MIAMI            91  78  88  78 /  60  70  80  90
NAPLES           93  77  90  76 /  60  30  60  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB


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