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000
FXUS62 KMFL 311901
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
301 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL DRIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A MID-TO-UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH SATURDAY...ENHANCING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SFC LOPRES APPEARS TO BE FORMING NEAR FT PIERCE...WITH
TRAILING LOPRES TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD TOWARD NAPLES. CONVECTION
THUS FAR HAS FOCUSED IN VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS
DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. ATLANTIC SEA-BREEZE HAS INTRUDED
THROUGH ALL BUT WESTERN PORTIONS OF EAST COAST METROPOLITAN
AREAS. CONVECTION IS ALSO FIRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. POPS
ADJUSTED ACCORDING...TO CATEGORICAL IN VICINITY OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...TO HIGH CHANCE ALONG EAST COAST. PWAT VALUES ARE
STILL ABOVE NORMAL...AROUND 2.1 INCHES...AND STORM MOTION COULD BE
AS SLOW AS NORTH AT 5 MPH. ADD IN WARM TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORTIVE OF
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES...AND ENHANCE FLOOD THREAT EXISTS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE EVENING. AS OF NOW...APPEARS MOST
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN INLAND OF MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS...BUT
ANY ACTIVITY THAT PROPAGATING INTO URBAN AREAS COULD YIELD HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SUBSEQUENT STREET FLOODING.

LOPRES TROUGH WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALLOWING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO ESTABLISH OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
RETURN THE AREA TO A MORE TYPICALLY SUMMERTIME SEA-BREEZE
DOMINATED REGIME...WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED OVER THE INTERIOR AND
TOWARD THE WEST COAST.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPR-LEVEL LOPRES EAST OF
BAHAMAS...THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDAS
ATLANTIC WATERS ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST.

.LONG TERM...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY SUNDAY LEADING TO
ANOTHER DAY OF LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THE LOPRES WILL LIFT NORTH OF OUR
AREA MON- WED WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO A LESS ACTIVE TSTM PATTERN AND POPS SHOW A
DECREASING TREND THEN. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SYSTEM BEING
MONITORED BY NHC FOR TC DEVELOPMENT REMAINING EAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA AND WEAK, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL
WEATHER TODAY WITH NUMEROUS SHRAS/TSTMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY THAT SETS UP OVER OR NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY...THEN ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 85/AG

&&

.MARINE...
AWAY FROM CONVECTION...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KNOTS AND 3 FEET...RESPECTIVELY...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MANY
CONCERN WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND
WAVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  89  79  90 /  30  40  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  90  80  90 /  30  40  30  50
MIAMI            78  90  79  90 /  20  40  30  60
NAPLES           75  92  76  92 /  30  50  40  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...85/AG