Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 200652
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
152 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018

.AVIATION...
Light and variable winds will continue through early this morning
with SCT/BKN low clouds with bases around 4000 FT MSL. Aft
20/1500Z, easterly winds will increase to around 10 KT, then
diminish early in the evening. Not expecting any precipitation
today, with a just a few passing low clouds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 758 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018/

UPDATE...Extensive cirrus deck continues to stream across the
region this evening, and satellite trends suggest it will continue
overnight leading to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures are
dropping through the 60s across the area, with the coldest
locations already into the 50s. Things look on track for a cool,
but warmer night than the past two with lows ranging from the
upper 40s and low 50s over the interior and Gulf coast to upper
50s/around 60 along the east coast. No changes to the ongoing
forecast.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: Surface high is centered over the
northern Gulf coast this afternoon, stretching east across the
Florida peninsula. Low level flow has veered east-northeast,
allowing the stratocu deck over the Atlantic to advect into the
coast. Cloud deck isn`t deep enough for any significant rain
chances, though a sprinkle can`t be ruled out. Temperatures have
just peaked in the upper 60s and low 70s, and are expected to fall
relatively quickly as winds diminish right after sunset. With the
moderating easterly flow, overnight lows will be 10-15 degrees
warmer than last night. Temps will drop into the upper 40s and low
50s over the interior and Gulf coast and upper 50s/around 60
along the east coast.

THIS WEEKEND: High pressure to our north slides east on Saturday,
leaving the area under moderate low level easterly flow. Saturday
looks to initially start out dry, with the threat for Atlantic
showers increasing by the evening hours as a relatively strong
upper level shortwave moves east along the Gulf coast.

Models have backed off on the degree of moisture advection from the
south Saturday night into Sunday as the shortwave crosses the state.
The result is overall lower rain chances than previously forecast,
with areas near Lake Okeechobee potentially remaining dry. Current
forecast will hold coverage to 20-30%, highest over the local
Atlantic waters.

Highs on Saturday will be in the low-mid 70s, returning on normal on
Sunday in the mid-upper 70s. Overnight lows will be milder in the
mid-upper 50s over the NW interior to mid-upper 60s along the coast.

NEXT WEEK: Overall pattern remains progressive for next week as the
upper level shortwave slides east Sunday night. Next system that
crosses into the eastern US on Tuesday remains well north, with just
enough energy to push a very weak front into the peninsula before it
washes out. High pressure building behind this system across the
eastern third of the US will lead to breezy northeast flow for mid
week.

No significant drying is expected, keeping showers in the forecast
through the period. Breezy onshore flow will keep temperatures near
normal in the mid-upper 70s, with mild overnight lows ranging from
the upper 50s over the NW interior to upper 60s along the coast.

MARINE...High pressure to the north will remain in place into early
next week, leading to moderate east winds at 10-15kts over both the
Gulf and Atlantic. Flow becomes light and variable on Tuesday as a
front moves into the peninsula and washes on, with east-northeast
winds re-establishing behind the boundary mid week.

Seas will continue to subside tonight, remaining around 2ft in the
Gulf and 3-4ft in the Atlantic. Seas will remain choppy over the
local Atlantic. There will be a slight chance of showers this
weekend through early next week.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  72  63  75  64 /  10  10  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  73  65  75  66 /  10  20  20  10
Miami            74  64  76  65 /  10  20  20  10
Naples           72  58  77  60 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&


DISCUSSION...88/ALM
MARINE...88/ALM
AVIATION...27/JT







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