Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 290801
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
401 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH/BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC WITH ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING SW INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AHEAD OF IT. AT LOW LEVELS ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WHILE AT MID LEVELS THE REGION IS INCREASINGLY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY BUILDING FROM
THE EAST PAC NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND MOVING EAST.

SHORT TERM...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WEAKENING AND MIGRATING EAST AS
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/WEAK FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WITH TRAILING BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE SE STATES AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA TODAY. THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES
BEFORE REACHING THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TONIGHT. CONSENSUS OF THE
HIGH RES MODELS SHOWS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY BUT COUNTERACTING THAT IS BUILDING MID
LEVEL HIGH WITH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES REMAINING RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE. IN FACT, H5 TEMPS AND LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
AROUND OR BELOW AVERAGE. THIS ALONG WITH STEERING FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND SEA/LAKE BREEZES SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR, LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION, AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BUT
GIVEN UNIMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES NO ANTICIPATION FOR
ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME.

MODELS SHOW AFOREMENTIONED GULF HIGH AT MID LEVELS BUILDING ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WHILE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
AGAIN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL BRING BACK EASTERLY WINDS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA, ALONG WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN FACT
CONSENSUS MODEL FORECAST SNDGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING
BACK A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS SURFACE FRONT MOVING
INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AS SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
PENINSULA WEAKENS. AT MID LEVELS THE HIGH WEAKENS AS A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EAST MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
THIS RESULTS IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOWARDS THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK
AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK. OTHER
THAN THAT ANALYSIS OF ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT ANOMALIES
IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ESE WINDS REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY BEFORE INCREASING TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE WEEKEND PEAKING AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
ACROSS BOTH GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SEAS AT 4 FEET OR LESS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LOW ON
BOTH COASTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...BEFORE INCREASING SOME ALONG
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  72  85  75 /  10   0  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  73  85  76 /  10   0   0  10
MIAMI            87  73  86  75 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           87  71  89  69 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....52/PS



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