Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMFL 250153
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
853 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Weak trough over the Miami/Fort Lauderdale area and extending east
into the Bahamas leading to some cloudiness over these areas, but
no precipitation except for maybe a light shower over the Gulf
stream. As the trough drifts south, skies will temporarily clear
area-wide later this evening. Light winds, clearing skies and
sufficient surface/low level moisture will once again favor the
formation of fog and low clouds later tonight. In fact, low clouds
already being observed at Naples Municipal Airport and this will
spread inland and likely affect all of South Florida except for
most of metro and coastal Southeast Florida. The fog and low
clouds should burn off a couple of hours after sunrise Saturday.

Rest of forecast is on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 632 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017/

AVIATION...
Sea breezes late this afternoon and early this evening will become
light and variable by 06z tonight as weak gradient remains over
the area. Mostly clear skies and enough shallow low level
moisture in place tonight will favor fog formation most areas
away from the immediate coast. MVFR mainly in visibility at the
TAF sites after 06z through about 13z-14z on Saturday. Periods of
IFR conditions possible in outlying sites of the east coast such
as KTMB and KFXE as well as KAPF/Naples during that time frame,
but can`t rule out periods of IFR at east coast metro terminals
Weak trough offshore could produce a couple of showers over the
Atlantic late tonight and early Saturday, but no impacts expected
at terminals. Light west flow kicks in after 14z as conditions
improve, with sea breezes prevailing from 18z onward on Saturday
as a cold front remains well to our north.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service Key West FL/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SURFACE WISE...THE
PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
AND WELL EAST OF THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WITH A WEAK
REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

FORECAST...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE
LIKELIHOOD AND EXTENT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST
REASONING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERING OUR REGION THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE A DECAYING COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD AND BECOMES
DIFFUSE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...A LARGE
REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES AND OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE WINDS SLACKEN AS A WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE SAGS INTO OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED SO 20 PERCENT
POPS OR LESS SEEMS REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINE...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE A RESIDUAL NORTHERLY SWELL TONIGHT AND
AGAIN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN AN EXERCISE
CAUTION OR ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  64  84  63  80 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  67  85  67  81 /   0   0  10  20
Miami            68  85  66  82 /   0   0   0  20
Naples           64  79  62  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...59/Molleda



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.