Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 301336
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
936 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
12Z RAOB ANALYSIS REVEALED FAIRLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ROBUST
CONVECTION. TWO FACTORS GOING AGAINST THIS ARE H5 INVERSION AND
ONLY MODEST DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. FEEL COVERAGE MAY NOT BE
WIDESPREAD...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS A REASONABLE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/

AVIATION...
FEW SHOWERS IMPACTING NAPLES THIS MORNING...WITH REMAINING
TERMINALS EXPECTED TO STAY DRY UNTIL AFTERNOON. VCTS AT ALL
TERMINALS 18Z-0Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW FOR MIAMI-DADE
AND FUTURE UPDATES MAY BE REDUCED TO VCSH. ALTERNATIVELY...KPBI
COULD HAVE TEMPO GROUP ADDED IF MESOSCALE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
PROJECT NUMEROUS COVERAGE. SW WIND 10-15 THIS AFTERNOON...5 KT OR
LESS TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR FOR ATLANTIC BREEZE...WHICH COULD
IMPACTING KPBI BY MID-AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS TROUGH HAS INDUCED A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS CUT OFF FROM THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BELT WHICH
RUNS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND TO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY
LEAVING SOUTH FLORIDA IN A COL REGION OR A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, THE RIDGE WILL BE CONTINUE TO
BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH BUT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH ON SATURDAY. THESE
SUBTLE CHANGES WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER
WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS SO MAINLY NORTH OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AT 6C/KM OR LESS AND THE 500MB TEMPERATURE OF AROUND
-7C TO -8C WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THUS, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE TYPICAL SOUTH FLORIDA VARIETY WITH
POSSIBLE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, NOT MUCH CHANGES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
MODELS SHOWING THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINING OVER
THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL TRY AND BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND THIS MAY YIELD A
MORE DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SO FOR NOW, WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS.

MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  76  90  76 /  60  30  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  78  90  78 /  40  20  50  40
MIAMI            92  78  91  77 /  30  10  50  40
NAPLES           89  78  90  76 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....30/KOB


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