Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 230607

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
207 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Light and variable winds will continue this morning, with mainly
clear skies. Aft 23/1500Z, northeast winds 8-12 KT will surface
with higher gusts possible...dwindling after 24/0000Z. Clouds
will be scarce through this evening with dry conditions


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 753 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016/

Following highs around 80 degrees this afternoon, temperatures
have fallen quickly around sunset, especially away from the
coasts as low dewpoints, clear skies and light winds are
contributing to good radiational cooling conditions. As of this
writing, temperatures have already dipped to near 60 degrees in
parts of Glades County and mid to upper 60s elsewhere over the
interior to even as far east as the West Kendall and Homestead
areas. Over metro/coastal sections of both coasts, temperatures
were still in the lower to mid 70s. Low temperatures look on track
for tonight, with a few areas west/south of Lake Okeechobee
potentially falling just below 50 degrees. Also, a few outlying
east coast metro suburbs could see upper 50s by dawn Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 416 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016/

Coolest Temperatures in over 5 Months Late Tonight/Sunday AM...

Tonight-Sunday...high pressure centered over the lower
Mississippi Valley this afternoon introducing dry and cooler
continental air across Florida, the first significant air mass
change of the fall season. Temperature guidance has trended
slightly lower than the previous few model runs, with daybreak low
temperatures Sunday about 5-7 degrees cooler than this morning`s
readings. This translates to lower 50s west and south of Lake
Okeechobee down to interior sections of Collier County (wouldn`t
surprise me to see one or two colder spots in the upper 40s), mid
to upper 50s elsewhere over the interior to the Gulf coast, and
lower to mid 60s east coast metro. The high pressure will shift
east to across the Florida Panhandle on Sunday, switching surface
winds to NE. Scattered clouds will drift across South FL with the
onshore flow, but there should be a decent amount of sunshine
especially over western areas. Highs on Sunday will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s, a good 4-7 degrees below normal.

Sunday Night-Tuesday...South Florida will still be under the
influence of the continental high pressure along with high
pressure in the mid/upper levels, resulting in NE winds and
temperatures running a few degrees below normal. Shallow, low-
level moisture will increase over eastern sections of South
Florida and result in a few showers moving onshore from time to
time. Models differ in the amount and depth of the moisture, so
for now went no higher than 20% POPs and confined to east coast
metro areas. Wind will increase on Tuesday with breezy or even
windy conditions.

Mid/Late Next Week...moisture levels will trend upward through
the end of next week as moderate/strong low level NE-E flow
increases and mid/upper level low pressure over the Gulf and NW
Caribbean influences our regional pattern. A "backdoor" cold front
will move through Wednesday and Wednesday night, introducing
higher moisture and increasing rain chances which will linger
through the remainder of next week. Some disagreement as to be
expected in these longer time frames, with the GFS bringing the
higher moisture Wednesday and the ECMWF late Wednesday and
Thursday. Models also show a fairly tight moisture gradient from
north to south (from lower to higher moisture). As a result.
highest POPs will lie across the Miami/Fort Lauderdale area,
trending slightly lower across the Palm Beaches as well as the
interior/Gulf coast. For the time being it doesn`t appear that
instability will be enough for thunderstorms, but this will be
monitored as enough instability could return to area for at least
a couple of thunderstorms later in the week. All in all, a
cloudier, milder and somewhat gloomy pattern for middle to end of
next week.

MARINE...NE winds and seas slowly increasing through Monday, then
increasing more significantly by Tuesday and persisting through
the middle of next week. Seas mainly 3-5 feet through Monday, then
building to 4-6 feet late Tuesday and to as high as 7-8 in the
Gulf Stream Wednesday and Thursday.

BEACH FORECAST...The rip current risk at the Atlantic beaches
will steadily increase over the next several days as NE winds
increase to around 20 mph. Therefore, a high risk of rip currents
is likely by Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER...First significant dry air intrusion of the season
has lowered relative humidity values to below 30 percent over
western areas and 35-40 percent east coast metro areas this
afternoon. As low level winds turn to the NE Sunday and through
most of next week, relative humidity will moderate and be above
critical values. &&

West Palm Beach  79  68  80  71 /  10  10  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  80  69  81  72 /  10  10  10  20
Miami            81  69  81  72 /  10  10  10  20
Naples           81  62  82  66 /   0   0  10   0



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