Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 270530
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
130 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR flying conditions should prevail at the TAF sites through the
period ending 06z Thursday. VCSH will impact the east coast TAF
sites through 14z, with dry conditions expected for the remainder
of the TAF period with shower/storm activity focused across the
interior and Gulf Coast. Have introduced VCSH at KAPF beginning at
17z, although bulk of activity should remain to the north and
east.

Fairly strong Atlantic east/southeast sea breeze will develop
again today, with winds by the mid morning hours becoming 10-15
knots, with occasional gusts around 20 knots possible at the east
coast TAF sites continuing into the early evening hours. With a
strong east/southeast flow in place, KAPF will likely see a
southeast flow, with formation of the Gulf sea breeze being
limited.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 736 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

UPDATE...
Shower and thunderstorm activity has dwindled across the interior
and west coast areas this evening. However, current radar trends
indicate isolated/scattered showers continuing to drift over the
Atlantic waters and towards the east coast metro. This pattern
should hold overnight with the rest of the forecast package on
track. 23/SK

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the
weather across South Florida over the next several days. This will
allow for a east southeasterly flow to occur across the region and
it will focus developing shower and thunderstorm activity across the
interior and west coast areas. A strong thunderstorm or two cannot
be ruled out in these areas with the main concerns being gusty
winds, frequent to excessive lightning strikes and heavy rainfall.
This area of high pressure will also limit convection across the
east coast metro areas of South Florida, allowing for hot afternoon
temperatures to occur. Heat index values will range between 100 and
105 degrees over the next several days.

LONG TERM...
As the upcoming weekend approaches, both of the GFS and
the ECMWF show a frontal boundary moving into the Northeast and Mid
Atlantic states. This will allow the area of high pressure to push
farther east of South Florida. This may allow for just enough low to
mid level moisture into the region to increase the shower and
thunderstorm chances to near normal levels for this time of year.
Even though the frontal boundary will stall out well to the north,
there will still be a possibility of a couple of strong storms in
the area as instability will increase slightly as well.

MARINE...
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather over
the Atlantic and Gulf waters through the rest of the week. East
southeasterly flow will prevail. Seas should be 3 feet or less,
however, winds and seas could increase in shower and thunderstorm
activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  93  82  92  80 /  10  10  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  91  83  90  81 /  10  20  20  10
Miami            92  82  91  81 /  10  20  30  10
Naples           93  77  92  78 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...27/JT
LONG TERM....55/CWC
AVIATION...92/IRL



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