Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 230002

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
802 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Mainly dry conditions prevail at all terminals, but will keep VCSH
for TMB and MIA as a few showers are moving inland from the SE
coastal waters. Expect VFR to prevail through most of the forecast
period, with another round of gusty ESE winds around 25 KT Monday


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017/

Latest WPC surface analysis shows a strong 1030 mb
cell of high pressure over the mid Atlantic waters. The slight
eastward movement of this feature has allowed for flow over South
Florida to veer more east southeast, sustained generally 15 to 20
mph along the east coast metro. Surface friction has generated slightly
weaker winds further inland. The MFL morning sounding showed,
once again, sufficient moisture in the lower levels and upper, but
lacking in the mid levels. Thus, current satellite derived PWAT
values are only in the 1.6"-1.7" range. Similar to yesterday, weak
instability has allowed for quick, westward moving, light to
moderate showers over the peninsula. Not expecting any lightning
with this activity, as CAPE values are too low, thus have not
included mention in the latest package. Due to the lack of much
friction over the water, east southeast winds will remain breezy
tonight, sustained at around 10 to 15 mph.

Early to mid this week: On Monday, flow will continue to veer
slightly to the southeast, out ahead of an approaching cold
front. Models indicate the front dropping south and eastward
across the central Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Enhanced lift and
moisture will begin to reach western portions of our CWA by Monday
afternoon, increasing shower coverage. Instability parameters
still appear rather weak, but a few rumbles of thunder can not be
ruled out. On Tuesday, the aforementioned front will be barreling
across the Florida peninsula. With forecast PWAT values over 2"
and increased instability, expecting widespread shower and storm
coverage. Some of the heavier showers/storms could produce heavy
rainfall, especially if they begin to train.

Wednesday through Friday: Behind the frontal passage, much drier and
cooler conditions will ensue. The maximum temperatures are
forecast only in the mid 70s on Wednesday and Thursday, some 5 to
10 degrees below seasonal norms. Dew points will also drop into
the upper 40s, bringing much drier conditions.

Southeasterly flow will prevail as high pressure
over the region shifts eastward into the Atlantic. Drier air over
the Atlantic today will help limit shower coverage as it spreads
over a good portion of the region. An approaching cold front on
Tuesday will increase shower and storm activity with winds
veering more southerly.

Although some isolated showers may impact terminals very briefly
throughout the period, elected to keep dry conditions in TAFs for
all except PBI where VCSH appears warranted through mid-afternoon.
Rain chances increase some late tonight and Sunday morning, but
for now will hold off on placing VCSH. Periods of MVFR CIGs have
occurred today, and could briefly impact terminals through the
afternoon, otherwise VFR prevails. Winds quite gusty, with ESE
gusts in excess of 25 KT reasonable through sunset, before
diminishing to 10 KT overnight. Winds may again gust above 20 KT
by late Monday morning.

Southeasterly flow will permit one last day of a high rip current
risk along the Atlantic beaches today. The risk should begin to
fall on Monday with improvement through much of the week.

West Palm Beach  80  87  75  84 /  30  30  30  60
Fort Lauderdale  80  87  76  84 /  50  30  30  60
Miami            79  87  76  85 /  40  30  30  60
Naples           77  87  74  84 /  20  40  50  70


FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168-172-173.


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