Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 280935

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
335 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017

A convective boundary remains over north-central Idaho and
southwest Montana today allowing showers/thunderstorms to be
fairly persistent over this area. Additional showers/thunderstorms
and gusty winds will begin to develop this afternoon through
early Thursday across (mainly) western Montana as a trough
pattern influences the Northern Rockies.

Model runs have been trending warmer and drier for Thursday into
Friday as ridging begins to build over the region. However, a
slight chance for showers is forecast for northwest Montana and
the Continental Divide each day.

A quick-moving shortwave will track through the Northern Rockies
on Saturday that will support afternoon showers and thunderstorms
across the area. The best chance for thunderstorm activity on
Saturday is currently over north-central Idaho and southwest
Montana though confidence remains low at this time. Temperatures
will rise above normal throughout the weekend period.

Drier, westerly flow ahead of the next trough will develop late
Sunday into Tuesday. Both Monday and Tuesday (4th of July)
currently have the potential for fairly strong afternoon/evening
winds, especially for higher terrain such as the Continental


.AVIATION...A boundary of showers and a few thunderstorms will
persist in the vicinity of KSMN and KBTM throughout the day and
evening. Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase across
northwest Montana this afternoon/evening, developing in the
vicinity of KGPI and KMSO generally after 29/0000Z. The main
threats with these storms will be bursts of heavy rainfall,
frequent lightning, and erratic wind gusts.

Breezy afternoon/evening winds are once again anticipated over
the TAF sites today.



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