Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 300940
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
340 AM MDT Fri Sep 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...Showers and a few thunderstorms are passing through
the region this morning under an active southwesterly flow. Model
guidance in general have struggled with placement and coverage of
thunderstorms, so the next several days will be interesting on the
precipitation side. There is some agreement, though, that the
best chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms will again be in
Lemhi County, Idaho and southwest Montana. A cold front is still
on track to pass through the region on Saturday morning, so
showers and thunderstorm chances remain ahead of and with the
front. Winds will increase behind the front, which will quickly
dry out north central Idaho and western Montana. This will, in
turn, cause precipitation chances to quickly decrease during the
day.

Changes that were made to the forecast for Sunday include further
drying out of precipitation chances. Models continue to show
disagreement with just how far south the low will travel, which
lends to low forecast confidence. Should the center of the low
pressure system dive south into the heart of NV/UT, it will create
less of a chance for north central Idaho and western Montana
to see much rain. If the low maintains a track that skirts along
south central Idaho, then this area, in addition to southwest
Montana, could experience much more rainfall Sunday through
Monday.

With this little confidence in any one forecast solution,
we will continue to monitor trends in how the low develops as it
moves closer to our region. If anything is certain, it is that
most of northwest Montana, the Panhandle of Idaho, and perhaps
even west central Montana could remain mostly dry for the
beginning of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms are passing through the
region early this morning as a broad trough approaches. Most of
the early day convection will be in northwest Montana through 30/1400z.
There is still forecast consistency for thunderstorms to again
develop in Lemhi County, Idaho and through southwest Montana this
afternoon with the next shortwave. An approaching cold front is
still on track for Saturday morning, so expect cloud cover to
increase tonight, in addition to rain showers through the
morning and gusty winds by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$



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