Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 051111

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
411 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

A ridge of high pressure will intensify along the US west coast
through Tuesday, creating relatively warm and dry conditions
across the Northern Rockies. One possible exception to the dry
warmth will be at high elevations of the Glacier Park Region,
where some low impact snow showers may exist at times.

Extended forecast models suggest that a significant pattern change
will occur around the middle of next week, however recent model
runs lack the kind of consistency that would bolster confidence
of any one solution. One thing that all models do agree upon: the
omnipresent high pressure over the Northern Rockies for much of
February and early March will finally be supplanted by an
increasingly maritime (Pacific) airmass that is moist, yet still
relatively warm. In the end, there is a chance for a significant
surge of subtropical moisture during the latter portion of next
week, however the more likely scenario will be more showery in
nature. Given the lack of cold air depicted in most models, winter
weather impacts will likely be confined to over mountain passes
and the highest valley locations.


Conditions will remain fair with light winds today and tonight
with passing high clouds for the TAF sites.



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