Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 230908

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
308 AM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...The Northern Rockies will experience a great spring
day today thanks to a cut off low pressure system developing well
to our south in the southern Great Basin and 4 corners region.
This will allow for a shallow ridge of high pressure to hover over
the area and bring stable conditions through mid day Friday.

FRIDAY will be another nice start to a pleasant spring day. The
closed low will have moved into the plains states resulting in
weakening of the ridge and allowing another weather disturbance to
push into the northern Rockies during the day. Precipitation
impacts will begin in central Idaho around noon and encompassing
all of western Montana by late Friday afternoon or evening.
Impacts from this system will persist through SATURDAY MORNING.
Mountain passes can expect to receive a few inches of snow as
snow levels lower to around 4000-4500 feet. In addition .25-.50"
of rain is expected in lower elevations of central Idaho.

Unstable conditions will persist over the region through Sunday
morning and precipitation chances will continue, though more or
less scattered to numerous showers are expected, especially Sat
afternoon and eve.

Sunday should turn out to be a very nice spring afternoon for most
across the Northern Rockies. Scattered showers will likely develop
in the evening, with the increased afternoon instability.
Temperatures will remain around normal, with highs in the upper
40s to low 50s.

Another shortwave will move into the region late Monday and
Tuesday, that will bring a better chance for showers and
potentially thunderstorms, mainly across north-central Idaho east
through west-central and southwestern Montana. Nothing really
impactful expected, other than extra ponding of water in roadways
from heavier showers.

Our next system way out in the future at the end of next week,
could turn into our first "Spring Cut-off" weather disturbance
typical for this time of the year. These systems usually bring
decent mountain snows across southwestern Montana.


.AVIATION...Lingering showers continue to move across northwestern
Montana this morning, but not expected to impact air terminals in
the region. However, fog is already started to develop around KGPI
early this morning, and is expected to impact KMSO by 23/1100Z.
The fog will reduce visibility and ceilings for a short period
this morning, and should dissipate by 23/1600Z. Gusty
southwesterly winds up to 20-25kts will be possible for KBTM
between 23/2000Z and 24/0100Z this afternoon and evening.
Otherwise a pleasant day is expected across the Northern Rockies.



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