Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 231741
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1041 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
MONDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY INLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 08:00 AM PDT SATURDAY... STRATUS HAS PUSHED
WELL INLAND THIS MORNING INTO THE NAPA VALLEY...TRI-VALLEY...AND
SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BACK TO THE COAST BY
LATE MORNING TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
INLAND BUT OTHERWISE SUBSTANTIALLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. FORECAST
IS ON TRACK FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE A WARM UP INLAND DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. NO MAJOR
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:30 AM PDT SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE MARINE LAYER IS NEAR 2000
FEET PER SODARS AND STRATUS EXTENDS WELL INLAND THIS MORNING. THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TODAY BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFFING
WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE IN OVER
THE WEST COAST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN
SIGNIFICANT WARMING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MODELS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER WILL NOT BE MIXED OUT BY THE
PASSING TROUGHS SO THE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST.
LOCAL COASTAL DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MARINE LAYER WILL
COMPRESS FROM TUESDAY ON AND BE MORE CONFINED NEAR THE COAST.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK THIS UPPER RIDGE GETS PUSHED EAST AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A FEW OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THIS UPPER TROUGH PICKING UP MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE MARIE AND BRINGING RAIN TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS REMAIN DRY. SINCE THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS LEAN TOWARDS NO RAIN...THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WHICH GOES OUT TO NEXT SATURDAY REMAINS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:41 AM PDT SATURDAY...THE MARINE LAYER IS
WELL OVER 2000 FEET DEEP THIS MORNING THUS STRATUS IS SLOWER TO
CLEAR OUT. .

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KT THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR EXPECTED AFTER 18Z. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL REACH 10 TO 15 KT. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN EARLY
THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:29 AM PDT SATURDAY...A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. A MIXED
SWELL FEATURING A MODERATE PERIOD SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 2 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: AC/W PI
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS

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