Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 092356
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
356 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND COOLER THROUGH THE
THE REST OF THE WEEK. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE
FAR NORTH BAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST
INTO AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:54 PM PST TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA ARE RUNNING 4 TO 8 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS MONTEREY
WHICH IS 1 DEGREE WARMER WITH A CURRENT RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURE OF 85...THE OLD RECORD SET BACK IN 2006 OF 80. THE
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM
SYSTEM THAT IS PUSHING TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THE 1800Z GFS40 AND 1200Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS SLIDE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DISPLACING
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE EXCEPTION BEING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN FAR
NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 3:55 PM PST TUESDAY...CURRENTLY CLEAR AT THE
SURFACE WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ALOFT. MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY...

CITY NAME       FEB 9TH HIGH AND YEAR
--------------------------------------
KENTFIELD        74 IN 1945
SAN RAFAEL       70 IN 2006
NAPA             75 IN 2006
SAN FRANCISCO    74 IN 2006
SFO AIRPORT      73 IN 2006
OAKLAND MUSEUM   74 IN 2006
OAKLAND AIRPORT  69 IN 2006
RICHMOND         75 IN 1988
LIVERMORE        77 IN 1917
SAN JOSE         74 IN 2006
GILROY           78 IN 2012

SANTA CRUZ       78 IN 2006
SALINAS          84 IN 2006
SALINAS AIRPORT  81 IN 2006
KING CITY        86 IN 2006

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:23 PM PST TUESDAY...ONSHORE WINDS RETURN TO THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. A MODERATE WEST SWELL IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A LARGER LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: CW
MARINE: DRP
CLIMATE: BELL


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