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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

000
FXZS60 NSTU 260154
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
254 PM SST SAT MAY 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY SUBSIDENCE AIR HOVERING OVER THE SAMOAN ISLANDS. A
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE
SAMOAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WHICH WILL CAUSE
LOCAL WINDS TO DIMINISH FROM 15 TO 20 KT TO 10 TO 15 KT ON MONDAY
THEN TO NEAR 5 TO 10 KT ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DETERMINE THE WIND SPEED ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. ANTICIPATE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY TRADE-WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...
.TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LATEST COMPUTER MODEL SHOWS A
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE SAMOAN ISLANDS
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. A DEVELOPING SHEAR-LINE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL MERGE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE REGION ON TUESDAY TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
TSTMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT
WILL RISE TO 15 TO 20 KT ON TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING EAST ON
THURSDAY. WET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOW SPECULATED FOR THE REST
OF THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD EXCEPT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...COMBINED SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELL IS PROGGED TO MOVE NEAR THE
SAMOAN WATERS ON THURSDAY OF THE NEW WEEK. HENCE...WILL MONITOR
THIS SITUATION BEFORE MAKING NEW CHANGES. THEREFORE...NO
SIGNIFICANT SWELL IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

$$

BAQUI