690
FXUS61 KRNK 080013
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
813 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather pattern will remain unsettled for much of the week with
a daily threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms through
Thursday. The risk of flash flooding will increase through the week,
with wet antecedent conditions and multiple, consecutive days
of showers and storms. Cooler and drier weather returns by the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Showers and thunderstorms diminishing this evening.

2. Fog could become an issue where it rained this afternoon.

Despite a shortwave ridge, higher DCAPE and sunshine along with
embedded vort as we moved through peak heating allowed for
several storm cells to form with some exhibiting supercell
characteristics. Only reports of hail and a few trees down have
come in. As we head through this evening and overnight, should
see a lull in activity but more showers/few storms could work
into the WV mountains to the NC mountains by dawn.

Will have to monitor fog formation as any clearing and moist
ground could bring about locally dense fog later this evening
through the overnight.

Previous discussion...

Mid and upper level ridging situated over the southeast continues to
build just west of the area through today, while a warm front lifts
farther northward into the upper Mid Atlantic. The morning sounding
showed mostly westerly to northwesterly winds from the surface to
aloft, so thinking coverage of storms today will be limited,
especially in the east where downsloping will suppress storm
development. However, model soundings on some of the CAMs suggest
surface flow turning more southwesterly by the mid to late evening
today, giving a veering wind profile, and more favorable for
thunderstorm development. But, by that time of day, temperatures
will be decreasing with the loss of daytime heating, so
atmospheric instability will be on a downward trend. That all
being said, overall thinking is a limited coverage of any
storms today, but any storms that do develop have the potential
to be severe, with the main hazards being damaging wind and
hail, timing between 6 PM and 9/10 PM.

Temperatures will be in the upper 70s in the west, and mid to upper
80s in the east today. Tonight, lows will be in the low to mid
60s. Patchy fog may again form late tonight through tomorrow
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

1. Showers and storms possible again late Wednesday.

A surface low tracks into and across the northeastern US, with
a slow moving cold front trailing through the Mid Atlantic into
the Central Appalachians, keeping the chances for showers in the
west through Wednesday morning. A break in the precipitation
through the middle part of the day is expected as the upper
shortwave associated with Tuesday`s system moves farther east.
Westerly winds increase behind this departing system, also
helping to bring an end to the lingering showers. The
approaching cold front will serve as a focus for shower and
thunderstorm development late Wednesday and into Thursday.
Mostly sunny skies Wednesday and plentiful atmospheric moisture
will result in greater instability. With better forcing at the
surface and aloft, there is a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms late Wednesday, main hazards being damaging wind,
large hail, and heavy rain, given above the continued normal
PWATs.

Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer, with highs in the
upper 70s in the west, mid to upper 80s in the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

  - Numerous thunderstorms Thursday
  - Cooler at the end of the week

A surface low pressure system tracks from the Ohio Valley to off the
East Coast Thursday, pushing a significant cold front through the
Mid Atlantic region. Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing
Thursday morning ahead of the front.

Deeper moisture pushes south through the Carolinas on Thursday night
and Friday as precipitable water values drop below an inch and
surface dew points lower into the 40s. At upper levels flow becomes
more west to northwest as a long wave through develops over the
northeast United States. A short wave coming through the northwest
flow will bring a cold front through the region Saturday night and
Sunday. This will result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms
mainly in the mountains.

Maximum temperatures Friday through Sunday will be 5 to 10 degrees
below normal, with a gradual warming trend next week. The coldest
overnight lows will be Friday night. A few of the typically favored
locations may cool into the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Tuesday...

Should be fairly quiet weather wise this evening with just some
showers near DAN. As we head through the evening look for
patches of fog to commence, especially where it rained, with
more fog late tonight. All sites could see at least MVFR fog if
not IFR. Overall keeping skies broken VFR.

Winds turn southwesterly later Tuesday evening, and will be
west-southwesterly through Wednesday at 5 to 10 knots. Winds
gusts may reach 15 to 20 knots this afternoon across the higher
elevations, and again Wednesday afternoon. Any storms Wed
afternoon look to be widely scattered to not have in the tafs at
this time.

Forecast confidence is average.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Unsettled weather is expected through Saturday. Daily threat of
SHRA/TSRA through at least Friday. This will bring periods of
MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities at times. Winds through
Wednesday will favor a SW direction and may be gusty at times.
Some improvement over the weekend especially Sunday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AS/BMG
NEAR TERM...AS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...AS/BMG/WP