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000
FXUS61 KRNK 070904
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
404 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. WINTRY WEATHER TODAY ENDS THIS AFTERNOON AS
WARMER AIR ERODES THE WEDGE...AND THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...BUT A CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO WEST VIRGINIA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 255 AM EST FRIDAY...

VERY COMPLEX WINTER STORM FOR EARLY MARCH. WE HAVE SEEN SOME CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA WITH HEAVIER BANDS
OF SLEET. THERE IS A FINE LINE BETWEEN THE SNOW/SLEET AND THE FZRA.
THE 06Z GSO SOUNDING SUGGESTED A WARM NOSE AROUND 915 MB OF 2.5C
WHICH WAS A DEGREE WARMER THAN THE 00Z GFS BUT 2.5C COOLER THAN THE
00Z NAM. AS THIS SYSTEM WRAPS TIGHTER WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THE
NORTHWEST PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIP BEING IMPEDED. AT THIS TIME THE
BEST ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW/SLEET ARE ALONG AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE FROM FLOYD VA TO STONE MOUNTAIN NC. THE SNOW FURTHER
NORTHWEST IS LIGHTER...WITH ONLY AN INCH OR LESS. HAVE A COUPLE
TENTHS ON THE GROUND HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE. WATCHING DUAL POL RADAR
WITH ITS DEPICTION OF BEST SLEET LOCATION FROM STUART VA TO WINSTON-
SALEM.

SNOW/SLEET TOTALS PER USING A COOLER GFS BLENDED WITH THE ECMWF
THROUGH MIDDAY GIVES ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS PATRICK AND
HENRY COUNTIES. ALREADY HAVE A WARNING FOR THEM. AT THIS TIME THE
CURRENT WARNING/ADVISORY SETUP LOOKS REASONABLE...WITH FRANKLIN
COUNTY COMING CLOSE WITH SLEET. THE FREEZING RAIN SETUP LOOKS
BORDERLINE AND THINK MAINLY THOSE LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF A SOUTH
BOSTON-DANVILLE-MOUNT AIRY LINE WILL HAVE SOME LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. COULD BE SOME ALSO ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THE WEDGE
ACROSS FAR SW VA...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE QPF LOOKS LIGHT...AND WE
ALREADY HAVE AN ADVISORY THERE.

FOLLOWED MAV MOS FOR TEMPS TODAY WITH ADJUSTMENTS 1-3 DEGREES COOLER
PER LATEST OBS IN THE WEDGE. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE NC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...MOST PRECIP WILL BE PULLING OUT. TEMPS WILL BE
RISING SLOWLY IN THE WEDGE BUT SHOULD WARM UP TOWARD THE MID 50S
ACROSS WESTERN TAZEWELL AND SMYTH WITH SUN RETURNING AFTER 3 PM.

EXPECT HIGHS OVER MOST OF THE REGION TO HIT THE LOWER 40S...AND THIS
MAY BE OPTIMISTIC FOR AREAS EAST OF THE ROANOKE TO STUART
AREA...WHERE AM INCLINED TO KEEP IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EST FRIDAY...

FRIDAY`S STORM SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY EVENING. A
FEW WRAP-AROUND LIGHT RAIN BANDS MAY STILL BE OVER THE PIEDMONT
THROUGH 9PM. BY MIDNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND WILL STRETCH NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT. A WARM WEST WINDS...AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT...WILL BRING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW TO MID 60S
EAST.

THE WEAK FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL CROSS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN OVER THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION
AS RAIN. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA MAY
COOL ENOUGH TO HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS RAIN WILL MAINLY FALL ALONG WESTERN SLOPES WITH A FEW SHOWERS
MOVING TO THE BLUE RIDGE. A LEE TROUGH AND BACKING WINDS MAY PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. WITH A WEST
WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THE ROANOKE VALLEY AND THE
FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MAY
GET JUMPED BY THIS RAIN. SINCE THIS RAIN WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING...KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES...BUT STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY...

THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM IS WARM...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST HELPING TO SHOVE H85 TEMPS NEAR +10C OVER OUR REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE NEAR THE ARKLATEX TO
FORM A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. H85 TEMPS ARE AS COLD AS -18C AFTER THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS IS THE
COLDEST SOLUTION WITH THE ECMWF SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AT H85.
REGARDLESS...A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR SE WEST VA. ATTM...NEXT
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS VERY COLD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1225 AM EST FRIDAY...

WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THIS MORNING...THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RAIN WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS BY NOON...THEN THE
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING.

P-TYPE WILL PRIMARILY BE SNOW THROUGH 10Z FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
AROUND 10Z...WARM AIR ENTERS ALOFT TO TRANSITION SNOW OVER TO
SLEET...THEN TO FREEZING RAIN. DANVILLE WILL BE THE FIRST AIRPORT TO
SEE THE CHANGE OVER. FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL START TO CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN ON THE OUTSIDE OF THE WEDGE AROUND 13Z AT BLUEFIELD AND
LEWISBURG. WEDGE WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S FOR
BLACKSBURG AND ROANOKE THROUGH 15Z...LYNCHBURG INTO 19Z. WITH THE
PRECIPITATION COMES LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...SYSTEM EXITS OUT TO SEA BY FRIDAY
EVENING WITH PRECIP ENDING. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z SAT.
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO SATURDAY EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS.

POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-
     009>018-022-023-033-034-045-059.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ032-043-044-
     058.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ024-035-046-047.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001>006-
     018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...RCS