Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRNK 191859
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
259 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DRIFT
EAST AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY PROVIDING A RETURN
OF DRIER AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATER TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SATURDAY...

DEFORMATION TYPE AXIS AROUND THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER SE GA REMAINS
PERSISTENT ATTM WITH A LINGERING BAND OF RAIN MOSTLY OVER NW NC
WHERE FEED OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FETCH REMAINS BEST. HOWEVER
FARTHER NORTH...DRYING CONTINUES UNDER A MORE PREDOMINANT NE FLOW
WITH QUITE A DROPOFF IN MOISTURE CROSSING THE VA/NC BORDER. UPPER
LOW WILL AGAIN BE SLOW TO MOVE OVERNIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE BEING
BLOCKED EAST TO OFF THE SE COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE LEFTOVER DEFORMATION BAND OVERNIGHT
IN JUST HOW LONG AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AND WHETHER
OR NOT IT JOGS BACK NORTH AS ANOTHER WAVE PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST.
LATEST GFS AGAIN REMAINS WETTEST IN KEEPING PRECIP GOING FROM NW
NC INTO SOUTHSIDE VA...WHILE THE EC/HRRR LESS WITH ONLY SPOTTY
RESIDUAL -RA...AND MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS DRY. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ENSEMBLE BLEND AND KEEP
HIGHER POPS FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS INTO THIS EVENING WHICH MAY BE
OVERDONE GIVEN CURRENT DRY ADVECTION. OTRW MIXTURE OF HIGH/MID
CLOUDS LIKELY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE PERHAPS PUSHING BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE NEXT IMPULSE ALOFT. KEPT LOW
TEMPS SIMILAR TO MOS EXCEPT COLDER NW VALLEYS WHERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD BE BEST.

UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY TO ALLOW
A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST STRENGTHENS UNDER GRADUAL SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR BY AFTERNOON PER MODEL RH CROSS
SECTIONS WITH HIGHS BOUNCING BACK INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 GIVEN
HEATING OF DRY AIR AND SLIGHT 85H WARMING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS. HOWEVER...ONE LAST COOL NIGHT IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND SUNRISE FOR PARTS OF THE NEW
RIVER...GREENBRIER AND SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS.

BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY...CLOUD COVER WILL START TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
WITH THE CLOUDS WILL COME INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN
CROSSES THE REGION. MODEL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS STILL OFFER THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. DESPITE
MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE PRECIPITATION...THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THOSE OF MONDAY. A MIX OF MID 60S TO LOWER 70S LOOKS
PROMISING ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS
THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION. BY MIDNIGHT...ALL THAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IS A SMALL REGION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THANKS TO
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT SATURDAY...

ON WEDNESDAY...WE STILL EXPECT WINDS TO BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT. WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WV IN THE MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE ACROSS SE WV
DURING THE DAY AS WINDS WEAKEN AS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND BECOME SITUATED OFF THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
APPALACHIANS WHILE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWS FOR GOOD
WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TO BE
A PERIOD OF NO PRECIPITATION AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN MILD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS.
MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
WEATHER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACCORDINGLY ON FRIDAY.

COOLER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHILE LINGERING
RAIN SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE...ENDING LAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA WHERE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE
PRECIPITATION THE LONGEST.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

DRIER LOW LEVEL NE FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS AT
ALL TAF SITES ATTM WITH MOSTLY A MID TO HIGH BKN/OVC CANOPY IN
PLACE. EXPECT THIS OVERALL TREND TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOST OF THE MVFR CONDITIONS STAYING ALONG THE SRN BLUE RIDGE IN NW
NORTH CAROLINA AND JUST SOUTH OF DAN. MAY SEE SOME LOW END VFR
CIGS DEVELOP NORTH INTO DAN BEFORE THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE/PRECIP
STARTS TO JOG BACK NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE SET TO MOVE ACROSS
OVERNIGHT. COULD ALSO BE SOME SPOTTY -RA ACROSS THE DAN VICINITY
AS WELL BUT OVERALL VFR WITH DRY WEATHER ELSW THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
THE NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE MAY BRING PRECIP BACK NORTH AT LEAST INTO
DAN THIS EVENING BEFORE EXITING EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WOULD ALSO
BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH VFR CIGS NORTH TO ROA/LYH
OVERNIGHT. SINCE THIS COULD BE OVERDONE GIVEN CURRENT DRY
ADVECTION AND LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS...WILL KEEP DAN HIGH END
MVFR CIGS WITH VFR VSBYS IN -RA LATER TONIGHT...AND MAINLY SCTD
LOW CLOUDS WITH HIGHER MID DECK CIGS ELSW FROM BCB-ROA-LYH FOR
NOW.

NE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ESPCLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BRINGING GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT TIMES
INTO TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAY STILL HAVE SOME MID DECK CIGS ACROSS THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE SLOW CLEARING TAKES PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING PERIODS OF MVFR FOR TUESDAY.
FRONT EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A RETURN TO VFR WEDNESDAY
EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS OVER THE FAR WESTERN SITES IN SE WEST VA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/RAB/RCS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.