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000
FXUS61 KRNK 261030
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
530 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
ON ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SNOW AND RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY INTO
MONDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW THIS FEATURE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EST MONDAY...

THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN NEAR
CALM WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
PIEDMONT. LOOKING AT A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES...FROM THE LOW
40S ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA...TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS. ONLY A FEW BANDS OF PRECIPITATION
PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...MAINLY AFFECTING THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES...CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS QUICKLY EAST TODAY...APPROACHING THE COAST
BY AROUND NOON. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW DURING THE MORNING...
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY...DRAWING COLDER AIR INTO THE
AREA AND CAPPING HEATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE WIND SHIFT WILL TAKE
UNTIL MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...MAKING MORE TIME FOR
WARMING...WHICH WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S.

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW
SWITCHES TO THE IDEAL DIRECTION TO DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...WHERE 1 TO 4 INCHES ACCUMULATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS SUCH...HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING IN THIS AREA TO INCLUDE THE
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE
WEST FACING RIDGES. BELIEVE THAT MOST SNOWFALL WILL ACCUMULATE ON
MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES DUE TO THE RECENT MILD WEATHER...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAY SURFACES/SLICK
CONDITIONS IN THE COLDER AIR ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS. LESSER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGES
SOUTHWARD IN NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.

SNOWFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEGINNING LATE EVENING AS MOISTURE
ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES DECREASES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO GUSTY
WINDS THAT WILL AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE GUSTS OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS...GRAYSON
HIGHLANDS AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS.

COLDER AIR BUILDING IN WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...TO
NEAR 30 OVER THE VIRGINIA SOUTHSIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM EST MONDAY...

A COASTAL LOW TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BECOME A STRONG NOR-EASTER BY DAYS END TUESDAY. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL COVER A GOOD CHUCK OF REAL ESTATE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND THE CAROLINAS AND
POINTS NORTHEAST. THE MIDDLE RINGS OF THIS LOW WILL SEND A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THESE WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE COASTAL PIEDMONT...BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS EAST OF
HWY 29 EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS CONFIDED TO GRASSY AND/OR ELEVATED
SURFACES. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE FOCUSED ON NORTHERN
SLOPES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVES ON THE OUTER BANDS OF THE LOW COULD
DEPOSIT 1-2 INCHES ON THESE SLOPES NORTH OF I64...TO ABOUT AN INCH
TOWARDS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY. THESE AMOUNTS ARE
QUESTIONABLE WITH THE FLOW BEING MORE NORTHERLY THAN NORTHWESTERLY
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE WETTEST OF THE SNOW WILL OCCUR MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO GET DRIER WITH EACH PASSING WAVE. THE DRYNESS
OF THE SNOW COULD LEAD TO HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT SHOULD NOT EXCEED 3
INCHES DURING THE UPSLOPE PORTION OF THIS EVENT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WITH THE NOR-EASTER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE MID WEST...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS IN THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE RISES
DO NOT APPEAR TO BE TO STRONG ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERLY FLOW AND A 30-
40KT JET. THESE WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST TRACKS OVER THE REGION STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO PEAK EARLY IN THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST WILL RANGE IN
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD WARM TO NEAR
40F. IF WINDS COULD DECOUPLE BY SUNRISE...WEDNESDAY MORNINGS LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE WEST TO MID 20S EAST. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO TRACK OVER THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL FALL SHY OF NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE GOING BACK TO SPLIT FLOW FOR THE
EXTENDED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA DOMINATING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROF FOR THE NORTHERN
STREAM. GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH GIVES
IT A WARMER LOOK THAN THE ECMWF.

WE WILL SEE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY
WHICH WILL BRING US A CHANCE OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WHICH
LOOKS TO BE MIX TO RAIN FOR THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SWING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING WHICH SETS THE STAGE
FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LOOK QUITE BLUSTERY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND FORMS A
BIT OF A WEDGE WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR FOR SATURDAY. EURO WANTS TO
BRING A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY.
GFS IS NOT ON BOARD WITH THIS AND ENSEMBLES WERE NOT INDICATING A
MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK. WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ENSEMBLE
SOLUTION AND KEEP TEMPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT A GOOD 20F WARMER
THAN THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1155 PM EST SUNDAY...

CEILINGS WERE VFR BUT LOWERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER TO IFR AS THE RAIN ARRIVES FROM WEST
TO EAST BETWEEN 09Z/4AM AND 11/6AM. THERE MAY BE SNOW MIXED IN THE
WITH RAIN AT KBLF AND KLWB FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN THE MORNING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM KENTUCKY DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES OFFSHORE AND WINDS COME AROUND TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...MUCH COLDER AIR COMES INTO THE REGION.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 21Z/4PM. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLWB. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 00Z AT ALL TAF SITES AS THE LOW DEEPENS
OFFSHORE.

EXPECT CEILINGS TO COME UP A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BUT REMAIN BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS BLF/LWB AND PERHAPS EVEN BCB DUE TO
SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE A
QUIET DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CEILINGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
HINTON ALL HAZARDS RADIO...162.425MHZ IS OFF THE AIR. THERE IS NO
ESTIMATE FOR RETURN TO SERVICE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ019-020-024.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/CF
EQUIPMENT...AMS