Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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085
FXUS66 KSGX 101029
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE FAIR AND UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER CALIFORNIA FOR MOST OF THE
COMING WEEK. THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED FOOTHILL BREEZES WILL
BE DIMINISHED THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS...BUT THE WARM AND DRY AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE
BRIEFLY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES OVER THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. AS A RESULT...SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND A TOUCH
MORE HUMID NEAR THE COAST. THE RIDGE REBOUNDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
SO DOES THE OFFSHORE FLOW. NORTHEAST FOOTHILL WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN...BUT DO NOT APPEAR AS STRONG AS THEY WERE EARLIER THIS
WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE WAY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS COMING WEEK AND PROBABLY RECORDING THE HIGHEST IN THE NATION.
MAX TEMPS WILL FLIRT WITH A FEW DAILY RECORDS TODAY...THURSDAY AND
MONDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SEEMS TO BREAK DOWN MORE
CONVINCINGLY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A GENERAL TROUGH
PATTERN SEEMS TO SET UP OFF THE COAST. IT REACHES DOWN INTO THE
SUBTROPICS TO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE FRAUGHT WITH INCONSISTENCY...BUT WE
HAVE SEEN SEVERAL MODEL RUNS NOW THAT PAINT SOME SORT OF RAIN OVER
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THOSE DAYS. ACCORDINGLY...WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ENTERING THE FORECAST WINDOW NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

100935Z... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

140 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

140 AM...A LONG-PERIOD SWELL FROM 290 DEGREES ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY
AND PEAKING FRIDAY AT 9 FT/18 SEC WILL GENERATE ELEVATED SURF AND
STRONG RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SWELL AND SURF WILL SUBSIDE
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AREAS OF EASTERLY WINDS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY IN FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW RH
VALUES OF AROUND TEN PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL RATHER HIGH FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BUT NOT AS HIGH
AS ON TUESDAY WHEN WIND WAS MORE OF A FACTOR. WARM AND DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK BUT WITHOUT STRONG WINDS.

EVEN THOUGH FUELS HAVE BEEN DRYING THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE WINDS
WILL NOT BE STRONG...SO THE ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.SKYWARN...

SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...MM
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS



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