Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 290118

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
918 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

After seeing a moderate amount of storm activity today, the storms
have wound down and moved farther westward over the gulf coast
waters. Mostly dry conditions can be expected tonight and into
tomorrow morning. The main feature that is going to affect our
weather over the coming days will be Tropical Depression 09 located
just to the south of Key West. The NHC track keeps this storm moving
west northwest into the gulf through Tuesday and then recurving it
to the north and then northeast by the end of the week. So with
increasing moisture and continued easterly component winds, the
greatest storm coverage will occur during the afternoon hours with
storms moving from the east toward the west coast of Florida. With
that being said, will keep POPS in the 60-80 percent range beginning
tomorrow and going through the end of the week. Daytime highs will
be a little cooler than average due to increasing cloudiness and
rain chances. Made some minor tweaks decreasing rain chances
overnight through 06Z. Will send updated zones shortly.


Things were a little quieter today, but most terminals did see some
storms rolling through causing some lower ceilings, reduced
visibilities and gusty winds. Similiar to yesterday, things will
quieten down over the next couple of hours. Will keep VCSH in the
forecast through 03Z, then VFR and dry conditions through the night
and into the morning. Winds will remain out of the east northeast
and will be gusty at times. Tomorrow will be a very similiar day as
today so will keep VCTS in northern terminals starting at 18Z and
starting at 15Z for the southern terminals. No other aviation
impacts expected.


A moderate pressure gradient continues between high pressure to
the north and Tropical Depression 09 moving south of Key West and
into the SE gulf later tonight into Monday. The persistent east
northeast winds will continue with easterly surges near SCEC
criteria overnight and early morning hours. Winds will shift to
the southeast around 15 knots by mid week as TD 09 moves west of
the area in the central gulf. They will shift further to the south
southwest by Thursday as the storm moves north toward the Big Bend
area of Florida. Winds will ramp up to small craft advisory level
over the southern gulf waters on Thursday with tropical storm
force over the northern coastal waters. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms will occur each day and will enhance the winds and
seas in the vicinity of those storms.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  92  77  89 /  20  60  40  70
FMY  77  88  77  87 /  10  70  50  80
GIF  76  90  75  89 /  10  70  30  70
SRQ  78  91  76  89 /  20  70  50  70
BKV  75  92  74  90 /  10  60  20  70
SPG  79  91  78  89 /  20  70  40  70


.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Gulf waters...None.


UPPER AIR...007/Dougherty
DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.