Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 240552

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
152 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

MVFR cigs are expected to develop at all terminals sites
the remainder of the morning and lasting through at least
19Z as a cold front approaches and moves south through the
region. Some light showers will accompany the front and have
include VCSH at all sites between 15-18Z to cover this. VFR
will return after 19Z but strato-cu clouds with cigs around
050 will linger through 00Z. Northwest winds at 5 to 7 knots
early this morning will increase to 12 to 15 knots after 15Z,
then increase further to 18 to 20 knots with gusts up to 28
knots possible after 18Z. Northwest winds will diminish to
10 to 12 knots after 02Z.


.Prev Discussion... /issued 854 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017/

UPDATE (Overnight and Monday)...
00z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis shows southern stream
shortwave energy that crossed the southern half of the
Florida peninsula today beginning to exit into the Atlantic,
with deep layer subsidence and drying overspread the
Florida peninsula in its wake. Further upstream, a large
closed upper low feature can be seen spinning over the TN
valley this evening. Associated with this system, a surface
cold front trails southward into the northeast Gulf of
Mexico. Regional radars show that this front is supporting
areas of showers and storms across the the Carolinas/Georgia
and into the FL panhandle. However, further south from
here, the shower activity becomes very limited over the NE
Gulf as the convection becomes removed from the best
synoptic lift/Qvector convergence ahead of the upper low,
and the updrafts encounter fairly hostile thermodynamic
conditions above 10,000 feet.

This situation looks to hold through the overnight into
Monday morning as the whole system shifts eastward and the
front approaches the FL west coast. A few scattered showers
can not be ruled out, and the forecast will show 20-30% rain
chances through Monday morning, however, the hostile
conditions aloft and the continued main synoptic influence
staying along and north of the I-10 corridor suggests that
measurable rainfall for all is highly unlikely, and those
that do see a showers will certainly not consider the
amounts a drought-buster.

Those down toward the Fort Myers area were lucky enough to
see some good rainfall earlier Sunday associated with the
passing shortwave trough mentioned above, but not much
more additional rain should be expected with this next

The last of the widely scattered showers will exit the
region toward midday as the cold front moves into the
Atlantic. Much of Monday will be characterized by more
clouds than sun and a developing gusty NW wind. The most
clouds should be closer to the coast as conditions appear to
favor quite a bit of strato-cu migrating onshore. The
further inland one goes, and the further into the diurnal
heating cycle we get, these stratocu should transition to a
sct-bkn cumulus field. Little chance of any diurnal showers
Monday the synoptic flow will far
overpower/prevent any defined sea-breeze, and the moisture
layer will become ever more squeezed/shallow from above.

Those with boating plans on Monday, either on the eastern
Gulf, or an inland lake, should be prepared for rather gusty
NW winds, sustained in the vicinity of 15 knots with gusts
likely over 20 knots at times. So, rather choppy conditions
developing Monday on the water as we head through the
morning hours and through the entire afternoon.

A cold front crossed the eastern Gulf of Mexico late
tonight into Monday morning. A few scattered showers
accompany the frontal passage, but no widespread rainfall
or thunderstorms are expected. Winds increase by later
Monday morning and remain at or near cautionary levels
through Monday evening. High pressure builds in Tuesday
providing lighter westerly winds.



.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  65  80  66 /  20   0   0   0
FMY  80  65  82  64 /  20   0   0   0
GIF  79  60  83  62 /  20   0   0   0
SRQ  76  64  80  64 /  20   0   0   0
BKV  76  56  81  57 /  20   0   0   0
SPG  76  65  79  67 /  20   0   0   0


Gulf waters...None.


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