Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 010138
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
938 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
W/NW WINDS ARE IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A REINFORCING
FRONT ON ITS WAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WITH THE
SECONDARY BOUNDARY...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COOLER/DRIER TEMPERATURES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE RISE IN
NW WINDS AND SEAS CAUSING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AS WINDS OVER THE PENINSULA INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FALL 10-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NATURE COAST COUNTIES FALLING INTO THE MID 30S
IN SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND HAVE NO
UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY NW WINDS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY GENERALLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND COMBINED WITH THE DEVELOPING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BECOMING 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.  SEAS WILL BUILD AND
RUN GENERALLY 8 TO 12 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  AS THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE WATERS WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AND
DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SINK OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO
THE EAST.  RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RUN CLOSE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE BREEZY WITH 20FT WINDS GREATER THAN 15
KNOTS EXPECTED. ERC VALUES HAVE RISEN ABOVE 27 FOR SEVERAL ZONES
ACROSS OUR AREA. RH VALUES ARE THE LARGEST VARIABLE WITH THIS
FORECAST AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
HAVE HELD OFF ON RAISING A RFW THIS EVENING AS THE EXACT EXPANSE
OF THE DRY AIR IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT NORTHERN AND INLAND
AREAS LOOK MOST LIKELY TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT. THEN FOR
SUNDAY...WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG BUT DURATIONS OF LOW RH VALUES
MAY BE IN PLACE TO NECESSITATE ANOTHER RFW. WILL BE MONITORING
THOSE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-
     HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND
     HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-
     INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-
     POLK-SUMTER.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE
     ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE





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