504
FXUS62 KTBW 140757
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
357 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A weak ridge of high pressure remains located over the Gulf and is
situated over the state, while a trough of low pressure is sitting
just off the coast of the Southeastern US at the moment. Showers and
thunderstorms have been active over the past few hours in our
northern counties, but they appear to be weakening with convection
falling apart as they move to the south towards the bay area. How
far this band of storms travels south may be an indicator as to
which area sees the most early activity this morning between the
Tampa Bay area or our southern counties, given interactions with the
outflow boundary of these storms post-collapse can spark further
local activity.

The aforementioned low pressure system should begin tracking west
across Florida later today before emerging into the northeastern
Gulf by Tuesday. The system is expected to bring about very high
chances for precipitation, with area wide probabilities exceeding
75%, as well as a forecast 2 to 4 inches of total rainfall over the
next 2 days with higher localized values possible. Climatologically
high PW values should be present in the atmosphere. The Weather
Prediction Center has tagged our region with a Slight Risk (at least
15%) of excessive rainfall stemming from this trough, and so there
exists the potential for associated local flash flooding.

Southeast flow is expected to take over later in the week into the
weekend with a ridge axis developing over North Central Florida,
leading to a more classic summertime pattern of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms primarily in the afternoon.

Once again, due to increased amounts of precipitation forecast early
in the week, high temperatures should be subdued with values in the
high 80s to low 90s, before rising to the low to mid 90s by the end
of the week. Lows are forecast to remain consistent in the mid 70s
throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 357 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions are in place currently, and they are expected to
prevail through the forecast period outside of thunderstorm
activity. At the moment, convective activity is traveling towards
the south and approaching the northern terminals, and so showers are
likely with the potential for thunderstorms and wind gusts over the
next few hours.

Convective activity is expected fire up again later this morning or
during early afternoon and continue into later tonight and early
morning tomorrow, presenting the possibility of restricted
operations at terminals that are in the vicinity of storms.
Localized gusty winds is likely to occur during thunderstorm
activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A weak area of low pressure is still expected to develop and move
west across the waters Tuesday and then well west of the area by
midweek. This will bring increasing shower and thunderstorm
activity for much of the upcoming week. Winds and seas are
expected could reach cautionary levels during midweek, but either
way gusty winds and locally rough seas will occur in the vicinity
of any thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

No fire weather concerns are expected at this time. Moisture will
increase with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected each
afternoon and evening through midweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  77  90  77 /  80  50  90  50
FMY  91  74  89  75 /  80  60  90  50
GIF  93  74  90  75 /  80  20  90  20
SRQ  91  74  89  75 /  80  70  90  60
BKV  93  72  91  72 /  80  50  90  40
SPG  88  76  87  76 /  80  60  90  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 8
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
    https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Poggiali
MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Close
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Hurt