Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 170118
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
918 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. THE
AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4 REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
THURSDAY...AS COLD AIR ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH RISING SURFACE DEW
POINTS TO CREATE MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE GFS SOLUTION IN
PARTICULAR LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST TO SEE 2000-2800 J/KG OF CAPE...LIFTED
INDICES OF UP TO -6...AND BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KNOTS. PRIMARY
HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL...GENERALLY DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

PAST THAT...WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF AND MOVING INTO
FLORIDA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO THE POPS/WEATHER/QPF GRIDS...AND FRESH ZONE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN
SENT FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT...BUT MAJORITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD WAIT
UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT AND OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS...WITH CEDAR KEY SUSTAINED AT 23 KNOTS AS OF 01Z. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN TARPON SPRINGS AND
SUWANNEE RIVER...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 20 KNOTS BY
MORNING. WINDS WILL LINGER AROUND EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN
FRIDAY EVENING AS A LOW MOVES NORTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF AND INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  80  68  79 /  20  50  40  90
FMY  68  85  69  83 /  20  70  40  70
GIF  65  80  67  81 /  20  60  40  90
SRQ  68  81  68  79 /  20  50  40  90
BKV  62  79  65  79 /  20  50  40  90
SPG  68  80  69  78 /  20  50  40  90

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...18/FLEMING
AVIATION...69/CLOSE





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