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000
FXUS62 KTBW 010140
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
940 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Showers and smaller thunderstorms have developed near the frontal
boundary around the Tampa Bay area and farther south. Therefore the
forecast PoPs and Wx were updated this evening to reflect that. This
evenings sounding continues to show a SW-W flow with continuing
instability - hence the recent convective activity. For the rest of
the night the isolated convection should taper off and then
regenerate Saturday morning into afternoon. As might be expected at
the begining of October... low temperatures are expected to dip into
the 60s north of the frontal bounday overnight.

.MID/LONG TERM (Saturday Night - Friday)... An upper level cutoff
low over the Great Lakes region at the start of the period will
continue to weaken as it lifts out to the north and northeast across
New England through Monday night with an upper level trough
persisting across the eastern U.S and Florida, while the upper level
ridging over the Atlantic shifts a bit further to the east. At the
surface high pressure to the north and tropical cyclone Matthew well
to our southeast will support an east-northeast wind flow across the
forecast area. Ample moisture within this flow will support
scattered to numerous showers and storms across the region each day
through Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hour.

From midweek on the forecast will all hinge on the exact track of
Matthew. At the current time model consensus along with the official
NHC track continues to move Matthew north through the Bahamas and
east of Florida during Wednesday and Thursday. Given this current
track the forecast area would be on the drier subsident side of the
storm which would greatly reduce rain chances Wednesday through
Friday, however seeing that things could still change will keep
climo pops (20 to 30 percent range) in place for now and wait to see
how things evolve during the next several days. Warming mid level
temperatures associated with Matthew should keep thunderstorm
chances on the low side Wednesday through Friday with breezy, warm
and muggy conditions with tropical showers expected. All residents
and visitors of West Central and Southwest Florida should monitor
the progress of Matthew through the upcoming weekend. For additional
information on Matthew, see the latest advisories being issued by
the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the period
with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s from north to south,
with daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s. Of note if drier air
does in fact advect into the region from midweek on then overnight
low temperatures could be a few degrees cooler than currently
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...
The TSRA has moved inland with little redevelopment over the gulf as
we have seen the last several evenings. This will keep prevailing
VFR in the TAFs overnight with winds becoming NE this evening. The
inland areas and VCNTY SRQ may have a brief SHRA this evening. TSRA
will approach the terminals from the east during the afternoon
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak surface high pressure south of the waters will move
north during the next few day...with westerly winds becoming
northeast and east. Initially winds will be light but increase
during next week as the gradient tightens...in response to tropical
cyclone Matthew. Marine interests should monitor the latest advisories
from the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The limited dry air across the far north this afternoon will be
replaced by deep moisture spreading west and north. This moisture
continues area wide for the next few days with no low RH issues.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  72  88  75  89 /  10  30  30  50
FMY  74  90  74  90 /  10  40  30  60
GIF  70  88  73  90 /  20  40  20  60
SRQ  73  87  74  90 /  10  30  30  50
BKV  67  87  70  90 /  10  30  20  50
SPG  75  87  76  89 /  10  30  30  50

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/Rude
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...57/McMichael