National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KTBW 201831
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
231 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight - Thursday)...
A zonal pattern has set up over the region with upper level ridging
extending westward from the Atlantic through Florida and into the
Gulf of Mexico. Troughing associated with Hurricane Jose extends
along the mid-Atlantic region and will further deepen and extend
into the Florida panhandle by Thursday. By Thursday night, the
subtropical ridge in the Atlantic weakens and moves east as the
trough moves off the eastern seaboard. This will help to steer
Hurricane Maria to the northwest and then to the north through the
weekend. On the surface, high pressure will be the dominant weather
feature for the next couple of days. With high pressure over the
area and drier air, rain chances will be on the low side through
Thursday. An isolated shower will be possible in the afternoon
hours, primarily south of the I-4 corridor. Under these sunny skies,
temps will warm up to slightly above average with low 90`s expected
region wide.

&&

.MID-LONG TERM (Thursday Night - Wednesday)...
Weak upper flow over the area to end the week as main features
remain well outside the region. Over the weekend, weak ridging aloft
while Maria moves northward in the Western Atlantic, well east of FL
into early next week. At the surface, high pressure into the Deep
South retreats northward over the weekend and into next week in
response Maria`s movements. Abundant moisture in place Fri/Sat along
with E/NE low level flow to combine  with diurnal heating and sea
breezes for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms area
wide. Drier and subsident air to wrap over the area Sun-Tue with
generally only isolated POPs expected. Temps continue around to a
few degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the next 24
hours. A scattered CU deck will linger around this afternoon.
Northern terminals will stay dry while PGD/FMY/RSW may see a stray
shower this afternoon, so will cover that with VCSH through 00Z.
Winds will remain light less than 10 knots. No other aviation
impacts expected.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure sitting over the Gulf coast waters will produce
pleasant marine conditions for boaters the next few days. The
gradient will tighten this weekend and into next week as Hurricane
Maria moves to the east of Florida. Winds and seas will slightly
increase, but still expected to remain 15 knots or less and seas 3
feet or less. No other marine impacts are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
While slightly drier air continues across parts of the area for the
next couple of days the minimum RH remain above critical values.
Increasing moisture and rain chances toward the end of the week will
help maintain higher RH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Residual river run-off from the heavy rains associated with
Hurricane Irma last week continues to cause flooding issues for many
rivers across west central and southwest Florida. Most rivers in the
area have seen their peak flooding and are on a gradual receding
trend. However...The Withlacoochee River At Trilby and Croom will
continue to slowly rise...cresting either today or tomorrow. The
river levels will then generally remain steady through the remainder
of the week...which will prolong the worst flooding this area has
seen in over 50 years.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  76  91  75  90 /   0  10  10  50
FMY  75  91  75  90 /  10  20  20  50
GIF  73  91  73  90 /   0  10  10  60
SRQ  75  90  74  89 /  10  10  20  50
BKV  70  92  71  89 /   0  10  10  60
SPG  77  91  77  89 /  10  10  20  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/HYDROLOGY...74/Wynn
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...25/Davis