Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 270205
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
905 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THIS EVENINGS SOUNDINGS REFLECTS THE DRIER COOLER AIR SHOWING ON WV
IMAGERY WITH PW AT 0.43 INCH. SOME STRATO CU CLOUDS FORMED FROM THE
COOL AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF WATERS ARE INTRUDING INTO
COASTAL AREAS. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S OVER NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TO 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH UNDER
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRED AS WINDS
OVER LAND AREAS TAPERED OFF THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
IN PLACE OVER THE GULF WATERS IWTH HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS
EXPECTED. NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
STILL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING LONG TERM FORECAST. THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A LARGE RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BEHIND ANOTHER REINFORCING AND DRY COLD FRONT. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL SERVE TO DROP OUR TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 TO THE MID AND UPPER
60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THURSDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY WITH NO RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN
BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY.
FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND THEN MOVING
NORTHEAST...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
PROCESS. THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS WITH IT SO
WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE WNW WINDS
GENERALLY 8-11KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 27/15Z TO AROUND
11G20KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HOWEVER
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT AS SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO FALL BELOW
CRITICAL HEIGHTS. SCA WILL EXPIRE AT 10PM FOR TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE
HARBOR...7 AM FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 10 AM FOR THE OFFSHORE
ZONES.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.


     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
BONITA      BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO      SUWANNEE RIVER
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

CP/AM









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