Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 111456
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
956 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2016

.MORNING UPDATE...
A plume of rich Atlantic moisture within low level easterly flow
is bringing cloudy conditions to much of southern Florida. These
clouds will gradually build northward through this evening, with
mostly cloudy conditions across the entire region by sunset.
Despite a rather shallow moist layer, adequate moistening and
convection may allow for a few light showers over interior parts
of the peninsula. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with warm
afternoon temperatures in the 70s and low 80s.

Very few changes were made to the existing forecast, though minor
tweaks to PoPs and winds were made to account for radar trends and
most recent model data.

&&

.AVIATION (12z TAFs)...
Mainly VFR conditions expected through much of the period with
light east to northeast winds. Broken VFR cigs will invade from
the east as low level moisture increases. MVFR to IFR cigs may
develop this evening and overnight as winds become more
southeasterly.

&&

.MARINE...
Cautionary level winds may continue over the southern offshore
waters for another couple of hours before subsiding through the
remainder of the day. Thereafter, the gradient will weaken as high
pressure drifts into the western Atlantic. This will bring about a
period of light winds through much of this week. The main concern
will be the potential for sea fog as low level moisture is
transported northward atop cool shelf waters. This will especially
be true of the shallower waters off the Big Bend region and Nature
Coast. Patchy sea fog may occur as early as Monday, but more
widespread fog will be more likely Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of
a very slow moving frontal boundary over southern Georgia.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  78  66  79  66 /  20  10  10  10
FMY  81  66  83  67 /  20  20  20  10
GIF  77  63  83  63 /  20  20  10  10
SRQ  79  65  78  64 /  20  10  10  10
BKV  77  60  80  58 /  20  10  10  10
SPG  76  66  78  65 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...84/Austin
UPPER AIR...42/Norman
DECISION SUPPORT...57/McMichael



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