Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 210100
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
900 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE
EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
HELPING TO PULL DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS THIS MOISTURE RETURNS A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES
AND THEN ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS A SARASOTA TO SEBRING LINE DURING
TUESDAY. FURTHER NORTH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRY
WITH MAINLY JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION
A FEW HOURS EARLIER OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE GRIDS AS
SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS COULD
MAKE IT INTO LEE COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ALSO BUMPED SKY
COVER UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL ONLY UPDATE ZONES TO ADJUST TIMING OF
POTENTIAL SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AT THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF PGD...FMY AND RSW. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS
LESS THAN 3 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  69  85  69  84 /   0  10  10  20
FMY  70  85  71  85 /  20  50  30  40
GIF  67  86  68  83 /   0  10  10  10
SRQ  67  84  68  85 /   0  20  20  20
BKV  59  86  59  84 /   0  10  10  10
SPG  73  85  72  84 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...69/CLOSE
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING




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