Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 050754
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
354 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...FINALLY BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN IF ONLY FOR A BRIEF TIME. RIDGING SURFACE TO
ALOFT FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ON
THE WEAK AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND PROPAGATE INLAND THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY
THEN CLOSER TO NORMAL THURSDAY. SUNNY SKIES TO ALLOW DAYTIME
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL AS WELL
BEFORE AFTERNOONS CLOUDS AND RAIN.

.MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.
WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DEEPENING SOME FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DEVELOPS THE TROUGH
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS DIFFER SOME
IN THE LOCATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THANKS TO THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK WITH THE
LATEST GFS AND CANADIAN BRINGING IT BACK NORTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
WHILE THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND KEEPS IT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. EITHER
WAY THOUGH...A WEAKENING COOL FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH TUESDAY SO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD RETURN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WE WILL SEE THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES RETURN FIRST TO THE NATURE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AND THEN SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE DEEPENING TROUGH.
POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL RETURN AS CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF LATE AT NIGHT AND THEN
SPREAD/DEVELOP OVER LAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. HAVE
LEFT CHANCE POPS (30 TO 50 PERCENT) FOR FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS (60 PERCENT) ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WITH 30 TO 50
PERCENT ELSEWHERE...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS
NEED TO INCREASE AND SPREAD THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH
INTO AT LEAST THE TAMPA BAY AREA. MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS
THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SCATTERED (30 TO 50 PERCENT)
MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TUESDAY IS THE UNCERTAIN DAY AS THE
ECMWF IS FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEP
MOISTURE AND THEREFORE MUCH WETTER FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD
THAN THE GFS AND HAVE GENERALLY JUST LEFT THE SCATTERED POPS (30 TO
50 PERCENT) AT THIS TIME.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST...POSSIBLY LOWER
80S IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST THAT DO NOT RECEIVE LATE NIGHT
RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MAINLY INLAND VCTS
THIS AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS UNTIL 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES OVER THE REGION CREATING
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON SEABREEZES AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
THE RIDGE AXIS SINKS SOUTH WITH WESTERLY FLOW RETURNING FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER OR FOG CONCERNS
EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SEVERAL RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE
ANCLOTE RIVER WITH MINOR FLOODING ON THE HILLSBOROUGH
RIVER...ALAFIA RIVER...LITTLE MANATEE RIVER...MYAKKA RIVER...AND
CYPRESS CREEK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. PLEASE SEE
SPECIFIC RIVER FORECASTS PROVIDED IN THE RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  78  90  78 /  30  10  30  10
FMY  93  76  93  77 /  40  10  20  10
GIF  94  76  93  75 /  60  20  50  10
SRQ  90  76  89  78 /  20  10  20  10
BKV  93  73  91  74 /  30  10  30  10
SPG  91  79  90  79 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE


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