Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 200128
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
828 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Atmospheric moisture has been slowly, but steadily
increasing throughout the day as shown on the 00Z TBW
sounding with PWAT at 0.43 inches. While surface high
pressure is firmly in place to our north, proving us out
N/NE winds, an upper level trough currently seen on water
vapor imagery over Eastern TX will translate east across
the northern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow. Moisture advection
coupled with isentropic pressure ascent will aid in the
development of a thick cirrostatus deck and this should
limit heating to a few degrees below normal... No
precipitation is expected with this system, although a stray
sprinkle south of I-4 cannot be ruled out.


No major changes were made to the ongoing forecast except
for a slight adjustment of dewpoints and to introduce
patchy/areas of frost to the remainder of the Nature Coast.
Some uncertainty exists to the timing of the moisture
advancement northward (seen by a 20 degree Dp difference
between Lee and Levy counties), but temperatures will fall
enough with calm enough winds for a frost threat.
Regardless, this region has seen numerous days of frost and
sub-freezing temps recently so agriculture impacts should
be lower.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions continue through the TAF period for all
terminals. Winds will be out of the N/NE through the
morning with winds shifting onshore tomorrow afternoon at
PIE, TPA, and SRQ. Thickening BKN/OVC cirrus clouds around
20k feet will fill in across the area by early morning ahead
of an approaching upper level trough. Some lower stratus
will also be possible as low level moisture advects north
but are cigs expected to remain VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure to our north continues a prevailing E/NE wind
through the weekend with no headlines expected. A front
will approach the region on Tuesday. Ahead of the front,
winds will veer to the southeast and moisture will increase.
With cold water, sea fog may be possible... Behind the
front, northeast winds will increase to cautionary/advisory
levels thanks to a tightening pressure gradient.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  46  68  55  74 /   0   0  10   0
FMY  51  72  58  77 /   0   0  10   0
GIF  46  69  54  75 /   0   0  10  10
SRQ  48  68  56  73 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  38  69  50  74 /   0   0  10   0
SPG  49  67  55  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...42/Norman
UPPER AIR...18/Fleming
DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close


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