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000
FXUS62 KTBW 101406
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
906 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES
EAST INTO THE MS/TN VALLEY. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND MOVE
NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS THE FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WILL MOVES EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NATURE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHERE IT GRADUALLY STALL
OUT. DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH (VIA TLH/JAX RAOB DATA) WILL
SUPPORT BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
NATURE COAST THE REST OF TODAY...WITH LIMITED PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
(PW`S LESS THAN 1 INCH AT TBW/XMR) AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SUPPORTING MAINLY DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NORTHERN MOST ZONES
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES...BUT
EVEN THERE READINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S. ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S. WILL REMOVE EARLY MORNING FOG WORDING FROM THE ZONES
IN A MID MORNING UPDATE...OTHERWISE NO OTHER GRID OR ZONE CHANGES
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG IS BEGINNING TO BURN OFF AT AREA TERMINALS...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY. ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH OF AREA
TAF SITES...WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS NEAR SHORE AND ADVISORY LEVELS
OFFSHORE FROM TARPON SPRING NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL WATERS. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL LIKELY KEEP WIND AND
SEAS ELEVATED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL
AVIATION...18/FLEMING