Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 162008

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
308 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Tuesday)...
Mid/upper level ridging will hold over Florida with surface high
pressure ridging westward from the Atlantic keeping a low level
east to southeast flow across the region. This flow will continue
to bring Atlantic moisture westward which will be trapped under
the subsidence inversion leading to more scattered to broken
stratocumulus/altocumulus and a slim chance for a few light
showers/sprinkles. However, the chance of measurable rain will
remain less than 20 percent. In general we`ll continue to see warm
conditions under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will
remain several degrees above normal with overnight lows in the mid
50s to mid 60s and daytime highs on Tuesday climbing back into the
mid 70s to lower 80s.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (Tuesday Night-Monday)...
Mid/upper-level ridging will hold over Florida through Thursday
before some shortwave energy passes by to our north Friday and
Saturday. At the surface, weak high pressure will generally remain
across the area through the week before an approaching frontal
boundary turns winds more to the south/southeast for Thursday.
Shortwave energy quickly lifts northeastward and opens up as the
surface boundary weakens, but this will still give us a chance for
rain both Friday and Saturday.

The better chance for rain comes Sunday and Monday, as a much
deeper trough is forecast to swing through the southeast Sunday
into Monday with a cold front moving through the area overnight.
Global models have been consistent in showing this setup, so
confidence continues to increase in a full frontal passage during
the end of the forecast period, bringing us a decent shot at rain
and even some thunderstorms possible. If this pans out, our
temperatures for next Monday would return closer to normal values,
while the rest of the period will feature continued above normal
temperatures. This is the very end of the forecast, so details
will be refined over the coming days.


General VFR conditions are expected through early tonight with
sct-bkn clouds between about 4-7kft expected through much of the
TAF period. Late tonight after about 08Z some areas of MVFR/local
IFR conditions in low clouds and fog could develop in the moist
airmass across the region. East to southeast winds at 8 to 12
knots this afternoon will diminish tonight then return Tuesday


East to southeast flow will persist into midweek then turn more
southerly late in the week with wind speeds less than 15 knots
and seas 3 feet or less. The west coast sea breeze will attempt to
develop near the coast each afternoon shifting winds near the
coast to a more southwest to west direction.


No significant fire weather concerns are expected through the
week. Increased low level moisture will keep relative humidity
above critical levels and winds will stay generally light. Any
fire activities near the coast for the next few days will need to
take into consideration the potential development of a sea
breeze. As the sea-breeze tries to move inland after 1-2
PM...winds are likely to become light and variable...or light
onshore. The next potential for inclement weather and/or wetting
rainfall will not arrive until at least Friday.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  62  79  63  78 /   0   5   0   0
FMY  61  82  61  81 /  10   5   0   0
GIF  59  82  60  82 /   0   5   0   0
SRQ  60  79  59  76 /   5   5   0   0
BKV  57  81  53  80 /   0   5   0   0
SPG  62  76  64  77 /   5   5   0   0


Gulf waters...None.


MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/Carlisle is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.