Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 140533
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1233 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY AFTER SUNRISE AND REMAIN
EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. FEW-SCT CUMULUS FIELDS DEVELOPS EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH BASES
GENERALLY 3-4KFT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES RIDGES SOUTH OVER THE AREA PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER FOR TONIGHT
AND ON SUNDAY. COLD AIR BEING ADVECTED IN ON A NORTHERLY WIND WILL
CAUSE A QUICK COOL DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO THE
MID 30S ALONG THE NATURE COAST AND LOW TO MID 40S FROM TAMPA BAY
SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TOMORROW REACHING THE
60S AND 70S REGION WIDE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. GRIDS ARE TRACKING
WELL AT THIS TIME SO NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.MARINE...INTERACTION BETWEEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN
FLORIDA AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS PRODUCING GUSTY
NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION OVERNIGHT UNTIL LATE TOMORROW MORNING WHEN THE
WINDS DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST EARLY
MONDAY...THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT THEN PASS THROUGH THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE WITH THE FRONT
ON TUESDAY. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
WATERS ON THURSDAY...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ENHANCED EASTERLY
WINDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  45  68  55  75 /   0   0  10   0
FMY  48  73  56  79 /   0   0  10  10
GIF  45  68  53  77 /   0  10  10  10
SRQ  45  69  55  75 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  38  68  50  77 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  49  68  57  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/MARINE...WYNN
AVIATION...MROCZKA


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