Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 310752
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
352 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
PUSHES WESTWARD TO OVER THE BAHAMAS AND APPROACHES THE STATE. THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS TO THE NORTH PUTTING THE AREA IN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON EACH DAY TURNING WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CAUSING LOCALIZED
FLOODING THE GREATEST HAZARDS. WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MUCH LOWER THAN
OBSERVED COVERAGE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
GENERALLY 90-95 EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOW IN THE
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE ONGOING LONG TERM FORECAST. THE ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH
EAST OR SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE
ITS WAY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH
MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS SHOWS A MORE WELL-DEFINED FEATURE WITH 500
MB TEMPS COOLING SLIGHTLY TO -8 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER OUR
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS DEFINED BUT DOES
STILL SHOW SOME COOL TEMPS ALOFT OF AROUND -7. ANOTHER FACTOR FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DRIER AIR THAT MOVES OVER THE REGION...WHICH
WOULD TEND TO SCALE BACK POPS A BIT...THOUGH STILL IN THE SCATTERED
RANGE...BUT SOME OF THE STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD BE ON THE STRONGER
SIDE WITH THE COOLING 500 MB TEMPS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY
TYPICAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL
VALUES FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT EAST WINDS WITH VFR SKIES WILL START THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
BECOME AROUND 8 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY TURN TO THE S/SW NEAR THE COAST
IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
GENERALLY 18Z-02Z AND HAVE VCTS FOR THIS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT ANY STORM THAT MOVES
OVER A TERMINAL CAN CAUSE TEMPO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT EAST
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL RETURN AFTER 01/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
EACH DAY TURNING WINDS ONSHORE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY MAINLY MOVING WEST PUSHING OFFSHORE. NO
HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT WINDS AND SEA WILL BE
HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  76  93  78 /  60  30  50  40
FMY  94  75  93  76 /  60  30  50  30
GIF  94  75  94  75 /  40  10  40  10
SRQ  94  74  93  76 /  60  30  50  40
BKV  94  72  94  73 /  40  20  40  30
SPG  93  79  92  80 /  60  30  50  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE





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