Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 200545

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1145 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

IFR conditions and a light northeast wind will continue overnight
at KBVO as they remain just north of a warm front. Otherwise, MVFR
conditions will prevail with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
A cold front will move south across the area Tuesday, with showers
and thunderstorms becoming more widespread. The rain may change to
freezing rain before it ends at the northeast Oklahoma sites. MVFR
ceilings will prevail Tuesday and Tuesday evening, with lower
conditions possible in the heaviest downpours. Gusty south winds
will shift to the north following the passage of the front, and
will remain gusty.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 855 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018/


The cold front looks to have stalled this evening along a line
from Norman, OK to Tulsa, OK to just north of Joplin, MO. Recent
Oklahoma mesonet wind observations are showing slight wind shifts
back around to more southerly as front appears to be regressing
northward a bit. Hi-res model solutions having a hard time trying
to place the front and the question tonight will be how far north
it will retreat overnight. Current thinking is that models may be
overly aggressive in placing the front too far north by Tuesday
morning. Increasing WWA will allow another northward surge of
moisture overnight allowing scattered showers and thunderstorms to
continue, and gradually increase in coverage through the morning
hours. If front continues to push northward to the KS/OK state
line, temperatures should be warm enough that no freezing
precipitation should occur. However, if front remains where it is,
will have to keep an eye on our CWAs northwest counties.

Given the frontal position and sharp temperature and wind
gradient, several adjustments were made to account for this and
the retreat northward overnight. Other adjustments were made to
account for near-term precipitation trends.


OK...Flood Watch from 6 AM CST Tuesday through late Tuesday night for

AR...Flood Watch from 6 AM CST Tuesday through late Tuesday night for



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