Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 290202
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
902 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
The only change necessary to the forecast this evening was to
drastically lower the probability of severe weather overnight.
Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible as a weak cold front
approaches the area, and current POPs remain reasonable. Since no
changes were made to any forecast products other than the HWO,
will not update any other products.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail into the early morning hours before
convection solidifies ahead of slow moving cold front. Ceilings
will likely remain in low VFR range with any impacts being with
brief heavier thunderstorms through the morning hours...with an
expected decrease in coverage by late morning. Renewed afternoon
storms are possible along the boundary however coverage is more
questionable at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Nothing overly exciting weather wise coming up over the next week
to 10 days. The main branch of the mid-latitude westerlies will
remain well to our north in a typical summer time pattern. A
weaker system on the southern fringe of the westerly flow is
traversing across the central part of the country today. This
system will help force a weak frontal boundary down into northern
OK tonight into Sat morning. Storms will fire along the boundary
from eastern KS southwestward...and some of this activity is
forecast to make its way into our area this evening. Severe risk
remains low given weak shear and less than impressive instability.
Chances for storms will continue into Saturday ahead of the
boundary and along an upper trough/shear axis that sets up over
the eastern portion of the forecast area. The data indicates this
potential may linger into early next week...but confidence and
coverage of precip doesn`t warrant a slgt chc mention at this
point.

The mid level trough/shear axis eventually dissolves or
consolidates into an upper low over the TX Gulf Coast later next
week...with broad ridging dominating aloft. Thus...quiet weather
will be the rule for much of next week...with temps slightly above
average.

Lacy

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06


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