Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 200302

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
702 PM PST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A Pacific storm system will move across the area tonight
and Saturday bringing a chance of rain and mountain snow to portions
of the area to go along with the gusty winds. The heaviest snow is
expected in Lincoln County above 5000 feet with lighter amounts in
Esmeralda County, central Nye County and the Spring Mountains. A
dusting to light accumulations of snow are possible Saturday in the
lower elevations between 3000 and 5000 feet. In addition, expect
much cooler temperatures over the weekend before temperatures slowly
moderate early next week.

.UPDATE...Latest HRRR, HRRRX, NAM12 and 18z GFS, as well as
radar, not supporting precipitation spreading down south as far as
inherited forecast indicated for this evening and only a small
chance of any development over the Spring Mountains. I updated to
lower pops in the Spring Mountains and to delay onset of
precipitation across southern portions of Nye and Lincoln Counties
and northern Mohave County until the 06z-12z time frame. -Harrison-

251 PM PST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night.

A trough of low pressure over the eastern Pacific is forecast to
move through the area tonight and Saturday before exiting to the
east Saturday night into Sunday. An associated cold front is
expected to slide south through the region overnight and turn winds
to the north, ushering in much cooler air. Gusty northerly winds are
forecast for much of Saturday with temperatures 15-20 degrees cooler
than today. Precipitation is expected to develop over the far
northern CWA this evening and also in the Spring Mountains. Heavy
snow is expected in Lincoln County coincident with the arrival of
the cold front and associated colder airmass. Snow levels starting
higher than 7000 feet this evening will plummet to around 4000 feet
by daybreak on Saturday bringing snow to the valley floors of
Lincoln County and impacting Highways 93 and 319. A Winter Storm
Warning will go into effect for the overnight hours tonight and
continue through noon Saturday with 4 to 7 inches expected. Higher
amounts up to a foot are possible in the higher elevations. A Winter
Weather Advisory will be in for the same time period in Esmeralda
and central Nye counties where 3 to 5 inches are forecast through
noon Saturday. 2 to 4 inches are possible in the Spring Mountains
generally above 6000 feet. The best window of opportunity for snow
accumulation is 8 pm to midnight this evening ahead of the low with
mainly light snow showers expected on Saturday underneath and
behind the low.

Dry and cool weather is forecast for Sunday under a northwest flow

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...Unchanged.

Two storm systems are expected to affect the region during this
period as progressive westerly flow continues. First weak system
will pass by Monday, with most precip chances remaining north of our
CWA. Flat ridging is expected Tuesday, then the flow will start to
buckle more southwesterly Wednesday ahead of the next, stronger
system for Wednesday night and Thursday. At this time, it appears
that precip chances will be limited to the southern Great Basin,
with gusty winds for the Mojave Desert. Temperatures should be
within a few degrees of late January normals, with Thursday likely
to be the warmest day due to increasing winds and mixing ahead of
the incoming storm system.

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Breezy, south southwesterly winds between
15-20 knots gusting around 25 knots will continue through this
evening. Gusts will become more intermittent after sunset with
speeds between 10-15 knots shifting closer to 210-250 degrees
overnight. Scattered clouds between 6K-8K ft will be possible late
tonight through early Saturday morning, becoming BKN at times as
frontal boundary approaches. Winds begin shifting west to northwest
between 15z-18z Saturday becoming gusty out of the northwest for the
remainder of the period. Post frontal winds should remain between 15-
20 knots with gusts again around 25 knots.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California....Breezy, south to southwest winds are expected today
and tonight as a cold front pushes through the area from the
northwest later this afternoon through tomorrow; shifting winds to
the northwest in its wake. Prefrontal winds this afternoon could
reach speeds of 15-25 knots gusting 20-35 knots followed by lesser
winds across the area overnight. Post frontal winds will reach
similar speeds on Saturday. SCT-BKN mid and high clouds will
continue to stream across the area with periods of lower cigs
between 6k-9k ft primarily in areas north of the Mojave Desert. Snow
and rain should remain isolated across the area tonight and tomorrow
but could be in the vicinity of BIH through tomorrow morning and the
remaining terminals on Saturday. With limited coverage of
precipitation have not included in 18z TAF package.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...A storm system will bring gusty
winds and increase precipitation across the northern counties this
weekend. Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather
or impacts according to standard operating procedures. &&



LONG TERM...Morgan

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