Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 251548
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
848 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A PUSH OF MOISTURE UP THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL
BRING MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT TODAY. MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE COOLER THAN
WHAT WE HAVE HAD THIS PAST WEEK DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER.
&&

.UPDATE...SKY AND POP GRIDS LOOK EXCELLENT THUS FAR. MAIN CONCERN IS
HOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL AFFECT HIGH TEMPS TODAY. BASED ON CURRENT
OBS AND 24 HOUR CHANGES...FORECAST HIGHS LOOK REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH
ANY POINT WHICH STAYS CLOUDY ALL DAY AND GETS RAIN AT LEAST ONCE
WILL PROBABLY FALL SHORT. NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
304 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE WAS ALREADY INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND THAT
TREND WILL CONTINUE AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE LIMITED TO
MAINLY LINCOLN...CLARK...MOHAVE AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD INTO INYO...ESMERALDA AND NYE
COUNTIES BY SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES
TODAY ACROSS EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WITH
ANY STORMS THERE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MONDAY SHOULD START OUT ON THE
CLOUDIER SIDE WITH CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THANKS TO
CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY. THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW CONVECTION
UNFOLDS DURING THE DAY BUT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER WELL OVER AN INCH
AND THE ADDED POSSIBILITY OF A JET STREAK SOMEWHERE NEAR MOHAVE
COUNTY...MONDAY COULD PROVE TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION.  BEST
CHANCES WILL BE IN MOHAVE COUNTY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND FAR EASTERN CALIFORNIA.
THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY DRY OUT THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
DAILY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DECREASING. CONFIDENCE IN HOW QUICKLY
MOISTURE IS SCOURED OUT IS LOW, WITH THE GFS HANGING ON THE MOISTURE
LONGER WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A DRY WESTERLY FLOW BY MIDWEEK.
TEMPERED POPS DOWNWARD TUESDAY ONWARD BUT MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL THANKS TO THE
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER AND SLOWLY TREND UPWARD AS
THINGS DRY OUT.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TERMINAL AREA...WITH A BETTER CHANCE
IN THE PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDOR. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
NEAR AND MAINLY EAST OF THE TERMINAL ON SATURDAY...THEN SPREAD TO
ALL CORRIDORS ON SUNDAY. MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF MORE EASTERLY WINDS
FOR A WHILE SATURDAY MID TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AREA COULD CAUSE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 15 BY FRIDAY MORNING...TO AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM YUCCA VALLEY TO RACHEL ON
SATURDAY...AND THEN AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY 10-20
KTS TODAY WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS...AND A LITTLE LIGHTER SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MORGAN
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...OUTLER

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