Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 200324 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
825 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO NEVADA TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY BUT WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...EVENING RADAR SHOWS ALL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ENDED ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE ALL
MENTION OF POPS. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
150 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING
MAINLY OVER MOHAVE COUNTY AS EXPECTED. STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING IN MOHAVE COUNTY. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK UP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN NEVADA. MODELS INDICATE 50 KTS COMING DOWN
TO MID ABOUT MID SLOPE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
QUICKLY INTO UTAH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOCALLY BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS
TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA SO WE HAVE NO
MENTION OF SHOWERS ANYWHERE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGING
WILL BE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING
IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.  CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW ANTICIPATED BEING A
LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND SOMEWHAT LESS ROBUST AS COMPARED TO EARLIER
MODEL PREDICTIONS BUT OUR FORECAST AREA WILL STILL BE SEEING HEIGHTS
CLIMBING TO 585 OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BOTH AFTERNOONS.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MANY DESERT LOCATIONS (ESPECIALLY BELOW 2K FT)
NEARING OR EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE VEGAS
VALLEY SOLIDLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

BY THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING. DESPITE DECREASING
HEIGHTS, INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED MIXING
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR ONE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES RETURN
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. TRENDED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO LATE
OCTOBER AVERAGES SUNDAY AS INCREASING TROUGHING TAKES HOLD OF THE
WESTERN STATES.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 14KFT THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 8
KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THEN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MAINLY LIGHT EAST WINDS MONDAY BUT A
SOUTH WIND AROUND 10 KTS COULD DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 23Z.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY WITH SCT-BKN 10-12KFT
AND FEW-SCT 12-14KFT ELSEWHERE. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
WITH MAINLY SOUTH WINDS 10-20 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GORELOW
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...OUTLER

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