Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 260433 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
830 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WHILE
NORTH BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD INTO THE MOJAVE
DESERT AND GREAT BASIN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY LEADING TO
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION
MID-WEEK, THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY WEEKS END.

&&

.UPDATE...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
IS GETTING PULLED NORTH THANKS TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE BAJA
COAST.  EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THICKER CLOUD
COVER MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.  I HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE
THINGS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

THE FOCUS OF THE REST OF THE SHIFT TONIGHT WILL BE TO FINE TUNE
RAINFALL PROBABILITIES AND AMOUNTS TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SATELLITE SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDS RUNNING ALONG THE SAN
BERNARDINO/RIVERSIDE COUNTY LINE THIS AFTERNOON. FETCH OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING LEADING TO THE ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN INTO THE SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY MTNS AND POSSIBLY THE MORONGO BASIN OF SOUTHERN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES IN MODELS WHERE THIS LEADING EDGE
OF PRECIPITATION GOES AS IT SPREAD NORTHWARD. THE NAM/GFS ARE
FURTHER WEST TAKING THE BAND ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO INYO COUNTY MONDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE, THE EURO IS FURTHER EAST OVER SRN MOHAVE COUNTY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN OVER SOUTHEAST NEVADA MONDAY EVENING. THE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING PERIOD STILL LOOKS BEST FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, CLARK COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES. THE NEED OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SPRING MTNS AND EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES IS ONE AREA
THAT NEEDS TO BE EVALUATED BY LATER SHIFTS. ANY IMPACTS FROM THE
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE 8000 FEET AS WE COULD SEE TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON REACH 4 TO 6 INCHES. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SHOWERS WILL COME AN END TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA.
THERE LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER WEAK RIDGING WILL LEAD TO A DRY FORECAST.

NORTH BREEZES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
THE ONSET OF CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY PRECIPITATION WILL LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER TROUGH OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN MEXICO PUSHES
EAST. THE MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN EXTENDED MODELS HAS BEEN MUCH BETTER
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THEY DO SHOW THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR
SEEING PRECIPITATION IS EXTREME EASTERN NEVADA AND MUCH OF ARIZONA
AS THIS AREA IS IN THE BEST UPPER DIFLUENCE REGION. THERE COULD BE
SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA...BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER MOHAVE COUNTY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DID INCREASE POPS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND
FAR EASTERN NEVADA...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FOR ANY LOCATION
WEST OF THE COLORADO RIVER. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GET PUSHED SOUTH
AND EAST SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO OVERRIDE THE LOW. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER WARM AND SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 7000 FEET OR HIGHER THROUGH THE EVENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTH WHILE WINDS WILL BE DOMINATED BY TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE WITH
SPEED 8 KTS OR LESS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH CEILING
LOWER INTO THE 150-200 RANGE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONSET OF
RAIN AND LOWER CIGS LOOKS TO OCCUR AROUND 10 PM MONDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CIGS LIKELY TO FALL BELOW 3K FEET,
POTENTIALLY BELOW 1K FEET FOR A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE HEAVIEST
RAIN. VSBYS COULD ALSO BE RESTRICTED TO 3-5 MILES AT TIMES.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH DOWN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING CIGS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40...AND BY MONDAY NIGHT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. CIGS
LIKELY TO FALL BELOW 3K FEET, POTENTIALLY BELOW 1K FEET FOR A 3-4
HOUR WINDOW DURING THE HEAVIEST RAIN. VSBYS COULD ALSO BE RESTRICTED
TO 3-5 MILES AT TIMES.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SNOW
IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&

$$

UPDATE...OUTLER
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...GORELOW

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