Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 271525
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
825 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A SUNNY AND WARM DAY
TODAY. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL PASS BY ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN SOME CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLY TRIGGER A STRAY SHOWER IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA.
OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TOWARDS RECORD TERRITORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING FROM LAS VEGAS HAS A FORECAST MAX
TEMP OF 89F WHICH WOULD EXCEED THE RECORD OF 88F FOR THE
DATE...HOWEVER AN 8 DEGREE JUMP FROM YESTERDAY WITH VERY LITTLE WIND
TO AID IN MIXING MAY BE A BIT OF A STRETCH. THEREFORE I WILL LEAVE
THE FORECAST MAX OF 87 IN VEGAS AS IS.  IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO
WATCH THOUGH.

ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER DAY OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS EXPECTED IN DEATH
VALLEY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND LOWER COLORADO RIVER LOCATIONS.

-OUTLER-

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE SITS DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST A BIT ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH
MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENCE OVERALL
SATURDAY AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGER MODEL AND FORMS A CLOSED
LOW OVER NEVADA WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF ARE WEAKER. OVERALL THERE IS
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. THE SIERRA HAS THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING SOME
PRECIPITATION...BUT EVEN THAT CHANCE IS SMALL AND MOSTLY LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH ENOUGH
500MB MOISTURE THERE COULD BE A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS...BUT LITTLE ELSE
AS THE LOWER LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY. TEMPERATURES MAY COOL
SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DECEASE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A WARM START TO NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
COOLING TREND AND INCREASING NORTH WINDS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE WEAK TROUGH OVER ARIZONA
AND NORTHERN MEXICO MONDAY MORNING WILL PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
WITHOUT MUCH EFFECT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. A FAIRLY FAST ZONAL FLOW
IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND THIS WILL
ALLOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO BRUSH THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY FOR SOME
INCREASING WINDS AND SLIGHT COOLING. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
THEN FORECAST TO SLIDE DOWN THROUGH NEVADA AND UTAH THURSDAY WHICH
WILL BRING A DRY COLD FRONT AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT BY LATE
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO DROP AROUND 10-15
DEGREES FROM MONDAYS READINGS AND ARE BASED ON BIAS CORRECTED CONS
GUIDANCE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD MAINLY BE 8 KTS OR LESS AND
FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG
WITH CLEAR SKIES.
&&

.CLIMATE...LISTED BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGHS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. RECORDS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE ON
SATURDAY.

LOCATION        SAT 3/28          SUN 3/29         MON 3/30
------------------------------------------------------------------
LAS VEGAS       89/1986           86/1966          88/2004
MT CHARLESTON   67/1989           63/1989          65/2004
BISHOP          81/1986           81/1969          84/1966
BARSTOW         90/1986           88/1969          91/1969
DEATH VALLEY    102/1986          99/2002          101/2002
NEEDLES         97/1986           95/1917          97/2004
KINGMAN         82/1921           86/1934          87/2002
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

GORELOW/ADAIR

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