Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 290031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 May 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Only B-class flares were observed. Region
2548 (N13W62, Cso/beta) showed signs of decay in its trailer spots. New
Region 2549 (S14E18, Dro/beta) was numbered and produced the lone
B-class flare, a B3/Sf at 28/1155 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flares throughout the forecast period (29-31 May).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on days one through three (29-31 May). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background values.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was enhanced by the influences of a negative
polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds were elevated in the 450-550 km/s
range for most of the period. Bt steadily decreased from 9 nT to 4 nT
while the Bz component was variable with a maximum southward deviation
of -8 nT early in the period. The phi angle was negative throughout the
reporting period.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to gradually decrease as the
above mentioned CH HSS wanes. Late on day one (29 May), a second
enhancement is anticipated due to the arrival of another
negative-polarity CH HSS located in the northwest quadrant of the solar
disk. The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced on day
two (30 May) and begin to recover on day three (31 May).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached active levels during the 28/0600-0900 UTC
synoptic period due to a sustained southward Bz component. Quiet to
unsettled conditions were observed for the remainder of the period as CH
HSS effects began to subside.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled for
the majority of day one (29 May) with active periods late in the day due
to the anticipated arrival of another negative polarity CH HSS.
Unsettled to active conditions are expected on day two (30 May) with
an isolated minor storm period likely due to continued CH HSS effects.
Conditions are expected to decrease to quiet to active levels on day
three (31 May) as CH HSS effects begin to taper off.


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