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FXXX12 KWNP 020031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 May 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2539 (N16E22, Eai/beta)
produced two C2 flares at 01/0922 UTC and 01/2238 UTC which were the
largest events of the period. The region also produced a few B-class
flares. Elongation along the east/west axis and some overall area growth
was observed in Region 2539. B-class activity was also observed from
Region 2540 (N21E38, Hrx/alpha). No significant change was noted in the
region. Region 2536 (N16W11, Dai/beta) indicated overall growth, but was
quiet over the period. All other regions were quiet and stable. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for
C-class flares all three days of the forecast period (02 - 04 May). Old
active Region 2529 (N10, L=344) is due to return on 03 May. On its
previous transit across the disk, the region produced numerous C-class
activity and was an M-class producer.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels while the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
continue at background levels three days of the forecast period (02 - 04

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected
slightly enhanced conditions. Solar wind speeds averaged about 400 km/s
through about 01/1300 UTC when a slight increase to about 450 km/s were
observed through periods end. Total magnetic field strength generally
ranged between 6-11 nT while the Bz was predominantly negative with a
maximum southward extent of -11 nT observed at 01/1352 UTC. Phi was
oriented in a predominately negative sector with some brief transitions
to a positive sector between about 01/0830-1300 UTC.

Solar wind enhancements are expected to persist into early-to-mid on day
one (02 May). A trend towards background conditions is expected for the
remainder of day one through days two and three (03 - 04 May).


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels through most of
the period with active conditions observed late in the day due to an
enhanced solar wind environment.

On day one (02 May), the geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly
quiet to unsettled with isolated active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels likely early in the day due to sustained southward Bz coupled
with enhanced solar winds. By days two and three (03 - 04 May), mostly
quiet conditions are expected as the solar wind environment returns to
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