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FXXX12 KWNP 281231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Oct 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2603 (N13W87, Dao/beta) underwent
some decay and was inactive. Two additional, weak spot groups appeared
during the period but we await additional ground-based reports to
warrant region assignment. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

Solar activity is expected to remain very low, with a slight chance for
C-class flares over the next three days (28-30 Oct).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels through the
period, with a max flux of 47,726 pfu at 27/1530 UTC, due to effects
associated with CH HSS activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
continued at background values.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at high to very
high levels all three days (28-30 Oct) due to continuing CH HSS effects.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels all three days.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a continued CH HSS regime.
Solar wind speeds were between 550 - 650 km/s. Total field was between 5
and 6 nT. The Bz component was variable with no significant southward
deflections. The phi angle was positive.

Solar wind speeds are expected to remain elevated all three days (28-30
Oct) as the positive polarity, polar connected CH HSS rotates out of
geoeffective position, while another positive polarity, isolated CH HSS
rotates into an Earth-connected position.


.24 hr Summary...
The overall planetary geomagnetic field responded with unsettled to
minor (G1-Minor) storming levels through the period due to effects from
the elevated solar wind speeds of the CH HSS, along with periods of
favorable IMF.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels,
with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storming possible on day one (28
Oct) due to continuing CH HSS effects. Days two and three (29-30 Oct)
are expected be at quiet to active levels, with the weakening influence
of the CH HSS. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.