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FXXX12 KWNP 081230

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Oct 08 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2429 (S20E39, Bxo/beta) was the only
numbered region on the visible disk, but continued to decay throughout
the period. Multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in
LASCO coronagraph imagery, erupting from just beyond the west limb.
While there were several in quick succession, none appeared to have an
Earth-directed component. No additional (CMEs) were detected in
available satellite imagery during the reporting period.

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for
C-class flares for the forecast period (08-10 Oct).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels during
the period, reaching a peak flux of 2816 pfu at 08/1155 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected be at moderate to high
levels, with a chance for very high levels, for the forecast period
(08-10 Oct) following the redistribution of particles due to the passage
of the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) and subsequent coronal hole
high-speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background (Below S1-Minor) levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected the
influence of a strong CIR at the beginning of the period, followed by
the transition to the positive polarity CH HSS. To start the period,
total magnetic field (Bt) remained enhanced and saw a peak field
strength of 22 nT at 07/1425 UTC. Bz had several periods of a prolonged
southward component with a maximum negative deflection of -18 nT at
07/1339 UTC. The Phi angle remained in a positive (away) orientation
throughout most of the period. CIR effects gave way to CH HSS influence
near 08/1940 UTC. Total field strength exhibited a rapid decline to
around 6 - 7 nT, density experienced a significant decrease as well, and
wind speeds increased from just over 400 km/s to sustain speeds near 750
km/s, eventually seeing a peak of 844 km/s at 07/2033 UTC. These
signatures marked the transition of the CIR into a strong HSS.

Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced for the majority
of day one (08 Oct) as influence from the positive polarity, equatorial
CH HSS continues. CH HSS effects should begin to wane near the end of
day two (09 Oct). Early on day two, an enhancement in solar wind
parameters is possible due to prolonged southward Bz combined with
substorming effects. Day three (10 Oct) is likely to see a decrease in
activity as CH HSS effects continue to wane, however, an isolated period
of substorming could cause another short-lived disturbance in the solar
wind environment.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field has ranged from minor (G1 - Minor) storm levels to
severe (G3 - Strong) storm levels due to the persistent effects of the
forecast CIR and CH HSS.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major (G2 -
Moderate) storm levels on day one (08 Oct) as CH HSS effects continue.
Day two (09 Oct), should see active to minor storm (G1 - Minor) levels
early in the period before CH HSS begin to wane. The later part of 09
Oct and day three (10 Oct) should see a return to quiet to unsettled
conditions with a chance for isolated active levels due to substorming. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.