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000
FXXX12 KWNP 061230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Mar 06 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels this period. The unnumbered
region just rotating onto the southeastern limb produced three M-class
(R1-Minor) flares. The largest of these was a M3 flare that peaked at
06/0457 UTC, with the two M1 flares reaching their peaks at 05/1811 UTC
and 06/0815 UTC respectively. Region 2293 (N05W60, Cao/beta) produced a
C4 flare at 05/1955 UTC, but continues to decay as it makes its way
around the west limb. Region 2295 (S08W60) decayed to plage during the
period.

All three of the M-class flares produced coronal mass ejections (CMEs).
The first was observed in LASCO COR2 imagery at 05/2012 UTC, appeared to
be very narrow, and was well off he Sun-Earth plane. The second occurred
at 06/0438 UTC, with the third occurring at 06/0712 UTC. Neither of
these subsequent CMEs appear to have any Earth-directed components
either, but a more thorough analysis will be conducted as more imagery
is received.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity on day one (06 Mar) increasing to
a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity on days two
and three (07-08 Mar). However, probabilities will likely increase as
the unnumbered region currently rotating onto the east limb becomes more
visible and a better analysis of its size and magnetic complexity can be
performed.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels this
period, reaching a maximum value of 1,110 pfu at 05/1855 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the
period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high
levels over the next three days (06-08 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to remain at background levels over the next
three days (06-08 Mar).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at the ACE spacecraft remained at fairly nominal
levels. Solar wind velocities were in the 450 km/s range for most of the
period before increasing slightly to average near 480 km/s. IMF
total field values reached as low as 1 nT at the beginning of the period
before steadily climbing to reach 10 nT the last half. Bz varied between
+6 nT and -3 nT for the first half of the period, but increased in
variability to +9 nT to -7 nT by the end. The phi angle was mostly
steady in a positive (away) solar sector orientation with isolated
oscillations to the positive (towards) sector around 05/1800 UTC and
again from 05/2030-2300 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain near background levels on
days one and two (06-07 Mar) under a nominal solar wind regime. By day
three (08 Mar), a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS) is expected to move into geoeffective position, causing minor
disturbances to the solar wind environment.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field began the period at quiet levels before increasing
to unsettled conditions with an isolated active period at the end of the
forecast day, due to sustained negative Bz.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels for the remainder of day one as well as day two (06-07 Mar),
under a nominal solar wind regime. The geomagnetic field is expected to
be at quiet to active levels with a slight chance for G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm conditions on day three (08 Mar) as a positive
polarity CH HSS become geoeffective.