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000
FXXX12 KWNP 220030
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Aug 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event of the period was a
C5/Sf flare at 21/0316 UTC from Region 2672 (N07E61, Dao/beta). The
other sunspot group, Region 2671 (N11W18, Fkc/beta-gamma), produced a
few B-class flares, the largest of which was a B9/Sf at 21/1103 UTC.
Despite the beta-gamma magnetic signature, this region has been
relatively stable and inactive. There were no Earth-directed CMEs
observed in available satellite imagery during the reporting period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance of M-class
flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate radio blackouts), for the next three days
(22-24 Aug).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached very high levels with a
peak flux of 52,000 pfu observed at 21/1725 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected remain at high to very
high levels over the next three days (22-24 Aug), while the greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters showed subsiding influences from a positive
polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds generally decreased throughout the
reporting period from around 700 km/s to 540 km/s, with a brief increase
to near 676 km/s near the end of the period. Total field strength mainly
ranged between 2 and 5 nT, with an isolated bump to 9 nT, and the Bz
component reached a maximum southward deflection of -6 nT. The phi angle
remained in a mostly positive orientation, with brief deflections into
the negative sector midday and again late in the day.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced for the next
two days (22-23 Aug) while solar wind speeds recover to background
levels in the wake of the CH HSS. Primarily nominal conditions are
expected by day three (24 Aug) as solar wind parameters return to
background levels.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to lingering
effects from a positive polarity CH HSS.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled
levels on day one (22 Aug) with isolated active periods early. Day two
(23 Aug) is expected to be mostly quiet with intermittent unsettled
periods. By day three (23 Aug) mostly quiet conditions are expected with
a return to background solar wind conditions.