Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
137
FXXX12 KWNP 260031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Feb 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels.  Slight growth was observed in
Region 2639 (S08W48, Cro/beta) while Region 2638 (N18W03, Cso/beta) was
quiet and stable.  An approximate 5 degree filament disappeared near
S12W10 in H-alpha imagery beginning at 25/1807 UTC.  However, no
subsequent CME signatures were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a slight
chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (26-28 Feb).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a
maximum flux of 1,287 pfu observed at 25/1500 UTC.  The greater than 10
MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate
to high levels over the next three days (26-28 Feb).  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels
throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the continued, but weakening, influence
of a positive polarity CH HSS.  Solar wind speed decreased from
approximately 595 km/s to near 490 km/s.  Total field ranged from 1-5 nT
while the Bz component was between +/-3 nT.  Phi angle was predominantly
oriented in a positive (away) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue decreasing on day one (26
Feb) as CH HSS influence subsides.  Background solar wind parameters are
expected on day two and through most of day three (27-28 Feb) with the
return of a nominal solar wind regime.  By late on day three, total
field and density are likely to begin to increase as a CIR in advance of
a negative polarity CH HSS rotates into geoeffective position.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under the waning
influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
day one (26 Feb) followed by mostly quiet conditions on day two (27 Feb)
as solar wind conditions slowly return to nominal levels.  By late on
day three (28 Feb), unsettled to active conditions are likely as a CIR
preceding a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.