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000
FXXX12 KWNP 091230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Mar 09 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M1 flare at 08/2341 UTC
from Region 2002 (S19E64, Dac/beta-gamma). In addition to the M-class
event, Region 2002 produced numerous C-class activity including a C6/Sf
at 09/0448 UTC. As Region 2002 rotates more fully onto the disk, it
continues to exhibit growth in both area and spot count and appears to
have developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 1996 (N15W16,
Eai/beta-gamma) exhibited penumbral growth in its trailer spots and
developed a beta-gamma magnetic structure. The remaining regions were
stable and quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected during the
period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-
class flares for the next three days (09-11 Mar).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to
moderate levels for the first two days (09-10 Mar). By day three (11
Mar), electron flux is expected to increase to moderate to high levels
in response to a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels for
the next three days (09-11 Mar).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The coronal hole has not been detected in solar wind data from the ACE
spacecraft yet. Wind speed remained in the upper 300 to lower 400 km/s
range through about 09/0300 UTC where a gradual decrease in speeds to
about 350 km/s was observed. Phi remained in a predominately positive
(away) sector. Bz fluctuated between about +3/-4 nT while Bt was steady
around 3-4 nT.

.Forecast...
Solar wind speed is expected to increase on day one (09 Mar) with the
onset of the negative polarity CH HSS, and is expected to persist
through day three (11 Mar).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The onset of a recurrent CH HSS described above is expected to bring
quiet to unsettled conditions for the next three days, with a chance for
active levels on day two (10 Mar).