Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 111231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Dec 11 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. A single B6 flare was observed at 11/0052
UTC from an unnumbered region around the E limb. New Region 2691
(S03E33, Axx/alpha) was inactive and unimpressive. There were no
Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels over the next
three days (11-13 Dec).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with
a maximum flux of 2,473 pfu observed at 10/1550 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over the next two days (11-12 Dec), increasing to
moderate to high levels by day three (13 Dec). The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels for the
forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated ambient background conditions through
about 11/0245 UTC. Solar wind speeds were steady between 325-350 km/s,
Bt was steady near 4 nT while the Bz component was variable between +/-
3 nT.

After 11/0245 UTC, solar wind parameters indicated a possible CIR in
advance of an anticipated recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Wind
speeds gradually increased to near 425 km/s, Bt reached a maximum of
near 12 nT while the Bz component varied between +6 to -10 nT. Phi angle
was primarily oriented in a positive sector.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to be enhanced throughout the
forecast period (11-13 Dec) due to the anticipated arrival of a
recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds are likely to
reach approximately 500 km/s with total field (Bt) measurements of 10-12
nT based on Stereo-A and recurrent data.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on
days one through three (11-13 Dec) as a recurrent, positive polarity,
polar-connected CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.



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