Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 051230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Jul 05 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity declined to very low levels with a few B-class flares
observed from Regions 2376 (N12W04, Eao/beta), 2378 (S17E39, Cso/beta)
and 2381 (N15E50, Dao/beta).  Region 2376 underwent minor decay in area,
but a slight increase in spot count while exhibiting some east/west
elongation.  Region 2378 exhibited minor penumbral decay and
consolidation in its trailer spot area.  Region 2381 showed some leader
spot consolidation and intermediate spot growth.  The remaining five
active regions on the visible disk were either stable or in decay.

An eruptive prominence, centered near N31E90, was observed in SDO/AIA
imagery beginning at 04/1915 UTC.  Coronagraph imagery and its location
suggests that the coronal mass ejection (CME) is directed away from the
Sun-Earth line.  No additional CMEs were detected in available
coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over the next three days (05-07 Jul).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels at the
beginning of the period with a peak flux of 4,500 pfu observed at
04/1235 UTC.  Flux values decreased to moderate levels by 04/1440 UTC
and further decreased to normal levels by 04/2000 UTC due to increased
geomagnetic field activity.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at
background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the remainder of day one (05 Jul) and return to
moderate to high levels on days two and three (06-07 Jul).  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels
throughout the forecast period (05-07 Jul).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected an enhanced solar wind environment due
to the onset of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) in advance of a
negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).  Solar wind
speed increased from initial values near 350 km/s to around 600 km/s by
04/2023 UTC.  Wind speeds then decreased to about 500 km/s and
maintained that speed through the end-of-period.

IMF total field strength (Bt) ranged from 2 nT to a peak of 23 nT around
04/1900 UTC.  By periods end, Bt values hovered around 7-8 nT.  The Bz
component generally varied between +10 nT to -13 nT through about
05/0300 UTC, briefly reaching a maximum southward component of -22 nT at
04/1911 UTC.  After 05/0300 UTC, Bz didnt vary much beyond +/- 5 nT.
The phi angle was in a predominately negative (towards) solar sector,
consistent with the influence of the negative polarity CH HSS.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced due to continued
CH HSS influence on day one (05 Jul) and through midday on day two (06
Jul) when CH HSS effects begin to wane.  CH HSS influence is expected to
subside by late day two/early day three (07 Jul) with solar wind
parameters expected to slowly return to background levels.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels until 04/1935 UTC
when G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions caused by the onset of a
CIR/CH HSS were observed.  Field conditions increased to G2 (Moderate)
levels at 05/0247 UTC, but relaxed to G1 (minor) storm conditions by
05/0600 UTC and further decreased to unsettled levels through periods
end.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels for the remainder of day one (05 Jul) and
unsettled to active levels on day two (06 Jul) due to continued CH HSS
effects.  A return to quiet to unsettled field activity is expected by
day three (07 Jul) as CH HSS influence subsides.


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