Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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486
FXXX12 KWNP 031231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Dec 03 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low and only background flare activity was
observed.  Region 2615 (S07W01, Dao/beta) exhibited intermediate and
trailer spot growth.  Regions 2614 (N06W28, Bxo/beta) and 2616 (N18W27,
Axx/alpha) showed decay while Region 2612 (N09W56, Dao/beta) remained
unchanged.  No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a chance
for C-class flare activity and a slight chance for M-class flare
activity, over the next three days (03-05 Dec).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period
with a peak flux of 9,967 pfu observed at 02/1515 UTC.  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the
period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to persist at high
levels over the next three days (03-05 Dec) and the greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the
forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speeds began the period slightly enhanced at near 375 km/s
but decreased to about 325 km/s by 03/1600 UTC.  The period ended with
speeds near 310 km/s.  Total field strength values slowly decreased from
initial values around 5 nT to 2 nT through the period while the Bz
component was slightly southward to -3 nT.  The phi angle remained
steady in a positive solar sector orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at background levels on
day one (03 Dec) with a minor solar wind enhancement expected on days
two and three (04-05 Dec) due to the anticipated onset of a positive
polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet this period under a nominal solar wind
regime.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (03 Dec) and
quiet to unsettled on days two and three (04-05 Dec) due to the weak
influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.



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