Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 300031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Aug 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity declined to low levels during the period with C-class
activity associated with Regions 2403 (S15W82, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) and
2405 (S19E21, Cro/beta).  The largest events of the period were several
of C2 flares at 29/0732 UTC, 29/1525 UTC, and 29/2037 UTC from Region
2403.  No appreciable changes were observed in Region 2403 as it began
its rotation around the SW limb.  Slight decay was observed in the
northern-most spots of Region 2405.  New Region 2406 (N03E34, Axx/alpha)
was numbered during the period.  No Earth-directed coronal mass
ejections were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to decrease over the forecast period as
Region 2403 transits further beyond the SW limb.  On day one (30 Aug),
solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for an isolated X-class (R3-Strong
or greater) flare.  Activity is expected to decrease on day two (31 Aug)
to low levels with a chance for an M-class flare.  A further decrease to
a chance for C-class flares is expected by day three (01 Sep).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
with a peak flux of 685 pfu observed at 29/1835 UTC.  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels with a chance for high levels for the forecast period
(30 Aug-01 Sep).  A slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event
(S1-Minor) exists on day one (30 Aug) due to flare potential from Region
2403.  The chance for an event decreases on days two and three (31
Aug-01 Sep) as Region 2403 rotates around the SW limb.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were under the influence of a negative polarity
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) during the period.  Solar wind
speeds were between 404 km/s and 511 km/s.  Total field decreased from
12 nT to near 7 nT while the Bz component ranged from +/-9 nT.  Phi
angled was oriented in a mostly negative (towards) sector.

.Forecast...
A slow decline in solar wind parameters is expected over the next three
days (30 Aug-01 Sep) as CH HSS effects diminish.  By mid to late on day
three, a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) followed by a co-rotating
interaction region (CIR) is expected to become geoeffective elevating
total magnetic field and solar wind speeds.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels.
Minor storming was observed during the 29/0000-0300 UTC period due to CH
HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
through midday on day three (30 Aug-01 Sep) as CH HSS effects diminish.
By mid to late on day three, a SSBC followed by a CIR preceding the next
CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective raising activity to unsettled
to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels.


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