Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 271535
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Valid 271700Z - 281200Z

Ongoing forecast is on track with no changes needed.
Locally/briefly critical fire weather conditions may develop in
southwestern New Mexico and southeastern Arizona after 21Z as
westerly surface flow approaches 20 mph in these regions.  See the
previous discussion below for more details.

..Cook.. 03/27/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0253 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017/

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level trough will dig southeast from the west coast to
the southwest of the United States. Accompanying this trough/low
will be a strong mid-level jet. As the trough approaches the
southwest United States, the trough should evolve toward a closed
low.  At the surface, a weak pressure gradient across the southwest
at the start of the period will strengthen toward the end of the
period in response to cyclogenesis across far southeast New Mexico.

...Far southeast Arizona, southeast half of New Mexico, and far west
Texas...
Clear skies and a dry airmass will combine to allow for temperatures
to warm into the upper 60s to upper 70s Fahrenheit with relative
humidity falling into the 10-20% range. Although surface winds will
generally be around or less than 15 mph, the dry airmass in place
and modest surface winds will support widespread elevated
fire-weather conditions.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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