Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS21 KWNS 281727
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 281700Z - 291200Z

CORRECTED TO FIX ISOLATED DRY-TSTM LINE

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SE MT...ERN WY...WRN NEB
PANHANDLE...EXTREME SWRN SD...

...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA HAS BEEN ADDED FOR PORTIONS OF SE
MT...NRN WY...SW ND...AND NW SD. TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT INTO NRN WY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY SPREAD
EWD BY LATE AFTERNOON...INTO AREAS WHERE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
WIND/RH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. DRY/DEEP
SUBCLOUD LAYERS AND RAPID STORM MOTIONS SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH LOCALLY WETTING RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. STRONG/ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY LOCALLY EXACERBATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR FIRE SPREAD AWAY FROM THE HEAVIEST RAIN CORES. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING INTO
SERN WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE...BUT SINCE THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
AFTER PEAK HEATING WHEN RH RECOVERY WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY...THE
ISOLATED DRY-TSTM DELINEATION HAS NOT BEEN EXTENDED THIS FAR SOUTH.

OTHERWISE...THE EXISTING ELEVATED/CRITICAL DELINEATIONS ARE LARGELY
UNCHANGED. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION REGARDING THE STRONG WIND/LOW RH THREAT.

..DEAN/COHEN.. 03/28/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0340 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO DEAMPLIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS
AN ERN CONUS TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD OFF THE ERN SEABOARD AND UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS DAMPENS. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST W OF
THE ROCKIES.  PHASED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS -- ONE MOVING THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND THE OTHER MOVING THROUGH THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES -- WILL ACT TO DEEPEN SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING INITIALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS THEY MOVE
EWD. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
MOVED THROUGH WRN PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS BY 00Z/SUN.

...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH ENHANCED WLY FLOW
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 15 TO 30 MPH. THE STRONGEST
WINDS /AROUND 30 MPH/ ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MT AND WY WITH WEAKER
WINDS /15 TO 20 MPH/ TO THE S AND W. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BE WELL ABOVE-AVERAGE WITH LOW 70S EXPECTED ACROSS ERN
MT...INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS NE CO..SE
WY...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE. DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THIS REGION AS WELL WITH MIN RH VALUES FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S.

THE MOST PROBABLE LOCATION FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
FROM SE MT SWD ACROSS ERN WY AND INTO THE FAR WRN NEB PANHANDLE. RH
VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WRN SD...MUCH OF THE NEB
PANHANDLE...AND NE CO BUT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 20 MPH
WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL THREAT. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER CNTRL WY BUT UNRECEPTIVE FUELS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE CRITICAL CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG /30-35 MPH SUSTAINED WITH 45 MPH GUSTS/
ACROSS MUCH OF ERN MT BUT MIXING IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY
CLOUDINESS WITH A RESULTANT REDUCTION IN HIGH TEMPERATURES...KEEPING
RH VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED A BIT WETTER WITH A GREATER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THAN
INDICATED YESTERDAY. AS SUCH...ELECTED TO KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA IN
AN ELEVATED RISK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SE MT WHERE CONFIDENCE IN
CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE CRITICAL
DELINEATION.

...CNTRL FL PENINSULA...
FUELS ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN GENERALLY UNRECEPTIVE BUT SOME
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS SUSTAINED
NWLY WINDS APPROACH 15 MPH AND DRY...POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT
MIN RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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