Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 250851
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ERN CONUS...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW PROGRESSING FROM THE SRN/CNTRL
PLAINS TOWARDS THE SERN U.S. FARTHER WEST...PAC COAST RIDGING WILL
SHIFT EAST AS A CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE THE BAJA PENINSULA DRIFTS N/NW.

...MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA...
THE OFFSHORE-FLOW REGIME IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SUNDAY...ALBEIT IN
A WEAKENED STATE RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE SFC GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A DIURNAL TREND OF MAXIMIZING AROUND 12Z AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEREAFTER. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ARE FORECAST THRU MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
DIMINISHES AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE.

AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS ENHANCE WARMING/DRYING EARLIER IN THE DAY...TEMPS
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...WHILE RH VALUES WILL FALL
INTO THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS ARE CONSISTENT
WITH A CRITICAL FIRE WX THREAT...A CONTINUATION OF RELATIVELY GREEN
FINER FUELS/HIGH LIVE-FUEL MOISTURE WILL TEMPER THE THREAT SOMEWHAT.
AS SUCH...THE ELEVATED DELINEATION WILL BE MAINTAINED.

...WRN OK AND NWRN TX...
STRONG...DEEP N/NWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH DIURNAL MIXING TO FOSTER
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID
IN DRYING...WITH RH VALUES LIKELY FALLING TO 20-25 PERCENT AS TEMPS
WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF
FUELS...CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RECENT PCPN WILL PRECLUDE A
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WX THREAT. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE
COLLOCATION OF SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 MPH WITH THE LOWER RH
VALUES...LOCALIZED ELEVATED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF
DRIER FUELS THIS AFTERNOON.

..PICCA.. 01/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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