Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 221538

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1037 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Valid 221700Z - 231200Z


...Portions of Eastern Colorado...

The critical fire weather area has been expanded north and eastward
this update to account for latest HRRR wind/RH guidance and surface
observation trends this morning. RH values are expected to fall into
the 12-15 percent range in the critical area with sustained wind
speeds in the 20-30 mph range with higher gusts for several hours
this afternoon.

The surrounding elevated area from portions of central NM into the
central High Plains has been adjusted only slightly.  See previous
discussion below for more details.

..Leitman.. 09/22/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/

A large-scale upper trough will make only slow eastward progress
across the western CONUS today, while upper ridging remains over
much of the central and eastern states. At the surface, a weak low
will develop northeastward across the northern Plains today, while a
second area of low pressure redevelops across eastern CO. A surface
trough/dryline will extend southward from the low over eastern CO
across the central/southern High Plains.

...Portions of the Central/Southern High Plains...
Strong 40-50 kt mid-level southwesterly winds will be present across
much of the High Plains today in association with the previously
mentioned upper trough over the western CONUS. As diurnal mixing of
the boundary layer occurs, a broad corridor of strong/gusty surface
winds will develop this afternoon from portions of the Southwest
into the eastern Great Basin, central/southern Rockies, and adjacent
High Plains. Sustained south-southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph will
likely occur, with higher gusts possible, particularly in higher
terrain. RH values will become lowered mainly into the 15-25% range
through downslope warming/drying of low levels along/behind a
surface trough/dryline. Latest short-term guidance suggests these
lowered RH values will likely occur across parts of NM, and the
ongoing elevated area has been extended southward to account for
this risk. A small area of critical conditions now appears likely
across parts of southeastern CO for a few hours this afternoon where
RH values will fall into the 12-15% range. Coupled with receptive
fuels, these forecast meteorological conditions warrant the
introduction of a small critical area across parts of southeastern

...Please see for graphic product...

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