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FNUS21 KWNS 271619
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Valid 271700Z - 281200Z

No changes to the ongoing forecast are necessary. See below for more
details.

..Picca.. 07/27/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0242 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017/

...Synopsis...
The midlevel low/trough that has persisted for several days near
northern CA is expected to weaken and become absorbed into broad
southwesterly flow ahead of a strong cyclone over the northeast
Pacific. At the surface, in response to the ejecting system, low
pressure is expected to deepen slightly over portions of
Alberta/Saskatchewan and the northern Rockies/High Plains. In the
wake of the departing trough, somewhat warmer and drier conditions
are expected over portions of California into the Great Basin.

...Northern OR into Central/Eastern WA...
Dry and breezy conditions are expected in the lee of the Cascades of
WA/OR, in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Current guidance
suggests the potential for westerly winds of 15-20 mph and minimum
RH values of 15-25%, sufficient for an elevated fire-weather risk.
Locally critical conditions are possible in terrain-favored areas
where winds are enhanced.

...ID into Western/Central MT and Northwest WY...
Scattered thunderstorms are again expected as the aforementioned
ejecting system moves across the area. Forecast thermodynamic
profiles continue to suggest the potential for a mix of wet and dry
thunderstorm activity, resulting in some threat for ignitions in
areas of dry fuels. The isolated dry-thunderstorm area has been
maintained from central ID into western/central MT, while portions
of southern ID have been removed due to greater moisture
availability and recent rainfall in that area.

...Portions of Eastern MT and the Western Dakotas...
A modest increase in surface winds is possible across portions of
eastern MT into the western Dakotas, in response to developing low
pressure over portions of AB/SK. With low-level moisture expected to
remain rather limited, strong heating could result in near-critical
RH values during the afternoon. These factors could result in
elevated fire weather conditions over portions of the region. At
this time, the greatest chance for elevated conditions appears to be
over portions of western SD into southwest ND. However, quite a bit
of uncertainty remains regarding the strength of the winds and
potential for cloudiness/convection to limit heating, so no
delineation has been made.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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