Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291520
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1411 UTC Mon May 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a low in NW Colombia near 10N75W
to 10N84W to low pressure of 1009 mb near 14N100W to 11N113W to
07N124W. The ITCZ continues from 07N124W to beyond 06N140W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 03N to 08N
between 77W and 82W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N
to 16N between 90W and 100W, and from 06N to 12N between 100W and
108W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh northwest winds continue to prevail west of the
Gulf of California this morning, supported by high pressure to
the west and surface troughs over Baja California and mainland
Mexico. The high will retrograde westward tonight, allowing winds
to relax to mainly moderate east of Baja California through
Tuesday morning. On Tuesday, models continue to forecast low
pressure to deepen over the interior western United States. This
will tighten the pressure gradient just west and northwest of
Baja California Norte, resulting in fresh northwest winds and
combined seas of 7 to 9 ft. Winds will relax again later this
week with seas decreasing to less than 8 ft.

Mainly light to gentle winds are expected over the Gulf of
California this week. The exception may be on Wednesday and
Thursday when winds over the northern Gulf of California increase
to 15 to 20 kt as the low inland over the western United States
slides eastward, dragging a trough over northern Baja
California.

Elsewhere, a broad area of low pressure to the south of southern
Mexico will meander over the region the next several days
supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms over the coastal
areas and offshore waters from Manzanillo to the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. As a result, heavy rainfall and flooding will be
possible over these coastal sections this week. Gusty winds and
brief seas to 8 ft will be possible in stronger convection.
Otherwise, mainly light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft
will prevail over the Mexico offshore waters south of Baja
California through the week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will continue to intersect the region the
next several days, supporting scattered convection mainly north
of 03N. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the trough
axis with 4 to 6 ft seas. Mainly moderate south to southwest
winds are expected south of the trough axis with seas of 5 to 7
ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak ridge centered over the northwest waters near 21N134W
will shift westward into the Central Pacific through mid week.
Gentle to moderate winds are expected over northwestern waters
with 5 to 7 ft seas. Fresh northwest winds are forecast to
develop north of 27N and east of 125W tonight as the pressure
gradient tightens in response to low pressure deepening inland
over the SW United States. These winds will support 7 to 9 ft
seas over that area through Wednesday night. The high to the west
will then shift north late this week, allowing winds and seas to
decrease slightly over the waters east of 125W, while causing
east to northeast trades over the northwest waters to increase to
around 15 kt.

Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will prevail in
southern waters north of the ITCZ, supporting seas of 7 to 9 ft
mainly from 07N to 15N west of 130W. Seas are expected to linger
up to 8 ft west of 135W through Wednesday.

$$
Latto


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