Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210236
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jul 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Greg is centered near 14.3N 117.4W, or 770 sm SW
of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula at 0300 UTC 21 JUL,
moving W or 275 deg at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55
kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 150
nm of the center. Greg is forecast to slowly intensify and reach
hurricane strength within 36 to 48 hours. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2 WTPZ22 for
more details.

A 1009 mb surface low developed along a tropical wave near
08N90W with scattered moderate isolated strong convection
observed within 210 nm over the SE quadrant and over the W
semicircle of center.  Environmental conditions are favorable for
this low to strengthen to a tropical cyclone reaching near 10N94W
late Fri and near 12N107W late Sat.

A 1008 mb surface low continues near 12N107W in association with
a tropical wave along 108W. Currently, scattered strong
convection is noted W of the low within 120 nm of 12.5N109W. The
pressure gradient is supporting strong to near gale force winds
within 240 nm over the NE quadrant of the low. Environmental
conditions are favorable for tropical cyclone formation as this
this low continues NW to near 14N111W late Fri and near
15N113.5W late Sat.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia at 09N78W
to the coast of Costa Rica at 11N86W, then turns SW through a
surafce low at 08N89W, then turns NW to another surface low
at 12N107W where it loses identity. Other than convection already
discussed above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted within 90 nm of 08N96W and 14N122W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A NW to SE orientated ridge extends into the area from 23N116W
to 18N105W supporting gentle to moderate NW winds W of the Baja
California Peninsula, with combined seas of 5-7 ft in a mix of
long period NW and SW swell. Gentle southerly flow will persist
in the Gulf of California, except for moderate southerly flow
occasionaly over the northern Gulf.

Fresh northerly gap winds expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
overnight into the early morning hours Fri. Seas will build to
8 ft, with an additional component of longer period southwest
swell.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

In the Gulf of Papagayo, moderate to fresh nocturnal offshore
winds will continue for the next several days building seas to 8
ft in a mix of the resultant E swell and longer period SW swell.

Moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon
trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial southerly swell and 6-
7 ft seas will continue to propagate into the waters reaching
the coast of Central America through the day. Another pulse of
large southerly swell will move into the region today and raise
seas to 6-8 ft through tonight.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Tropical Storm Fernanda has moved W of 140W, however, strong to
near gale force winds continue from 17N-23N W OF 137W, with seas
of 11-17 FT. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 60
nm of 20N139W. Fresh cyclonic winds and 7-11 ft seas are
observed elsewhere W of 135W between 13N-26N. Expect all
associated conditions to shift W of 140W on Fri night.

The remnant low of TD 8-E is analyzed near 13N126W and estimated
at 1009 MB, with strong winds continuing within 120 nm of the
center. The low will gradually dissipate through Fri.

The pressure gradient between Fernanda and Greg will maintain
moderate to fresh NE winds N of 25N and W of 127W through the
upcoming weekend. Northerly swell in the form of 7-8 ft seas
will propagate S of 32N between 125W and 135w early next week.

$$
Nelson



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