Tropical Weather Discussion
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961
AXPZ20 KNHC 210324
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0236 UTC Tue Feb 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure will build
across Mexico in the wake of a frontal system that will enter the
Gulf waters during the next 24-36 hours. The pressure gradient
generated between these features will help to produce the next
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. This event will be brief as
winds peak near minimal gale-force on Tuesday night through early
Wednesday morning. Winds will diminish below gale-force on
Wednesday as the high pressure ridge shifts quickly eastward
across the Gulf of Mexico.

Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for additional details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 09N125W to beyond 04N140W. No significant
convection.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force
gap wind event.

High pressure of 1024 mb is centered near 29N119W. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail over the offshore waters along the coast
of Baja California while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere.
Primarily NW swell will continue to push SE along the southern
portion of the Baja Peninsula and the Mexican coast to near
Manzanillo. This swell will subside as it continues moving SE.
Seas of 8-11 ft are expected across this area. Seas of 4-6 ft are
found over the remainder of the offshore Pacific waters. Seas
are generally 1-2 ft in the Gulf of California. Seas will
continue to subside off the coast of the Baja California, falling
below 8 ft by early Tuesday morning. A cold front will weaken
and dissipate W of Baja but a fresh round of NW swell associated
with the front will propagate into the area and cause seas to
rebuild above 8 ft off the coast of Baja California Norte by
Tuesday afternoon. In the wake of the front a high pressure will
strengthen W of the Baja California peninsula during the second
half of this week. This will strengthen the winds along the Baja
coast during this time frame.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Winds will pulse from moderate to locally
fresh during the overnight hours through Tuesday night. Winds
will then diminish by midweek.

Gulf of Panama: North winds will pulse from moderate to fresh
tonight.

Otherwise, winds will be in light to gentle range.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1024 mb high remains centered over the northern waters near
29N119W. A cold front is moving through the NW waters and extends
from 30N127W to 21N140W. Moderate to fresh winds are present W
of the front and N of 28N within 45 nm E of the front. NW swells
associated with the front continue to propagate SE across the
forecast waters. Seas will peak near 18 ft over the far NW waters
at this time before they start to subside through Tuesday. The
front will continue to move eastward while weakening, and is
expected to eventually dissipate by late Tuesday. Winds
associated to the front will diminish by then. NW swell will
continue to propagate SE. An area of seas of 8 ft or greater will
merge with the area currently SW of Baja by Tuesday evening,
covering most of the forecast area. Seas less that 8 ft will
prevail from late Wednesday through the end of the week.

$$

ERA




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