Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPZ20 KNHC 200239

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC WED SEP 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0130 UTC.


Post-Tropical Cyclone NORMA near 22.1N 115.6W 1007 MB AT 0300
UTC moving WNW or 290 DEG at 6 KT. Maximum sustained winds 30 KT
gusts 40 KT. Isolated light to moderate convection is within 90
nm across the S semicircle. The low level circulation of Norma
has begun to decouple or separate from the middle level
circulation, and convection is now very meager. Norma has lost
tropical characteristics and is now post-tropical. The remnant
low will continue to move slowly NW for the next few days.
Associated winds and seas will slowly wind down before the low
dissipates Thu.


A tropical wave is propagating across the eastern waters just to
the west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, along 96W N of 07N.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 10N to 16N
between 92W and 104W. Global models suggest that a low pressure
center could develop across this region in a few days as active
convection continues.


Monsoon trough extends from 09N74W TO 08N82W TO 13N96W TO
10N107W TO 13.5N132W TO BEYOND 13N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 03N to 08N between 77W and 84W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 06N to 13.5N between 77W
and 89W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 12N to
16N between 132W and 138W.



A broad surface ridge extends SE into the region and passes
through 32N128W to near 25N118W. Anticyclonic wind flow covers
the area N through NW of the remnant lows of Norma and Otis. A
surface trough is in the northernmost part of the Gulf of
California, where fresh northerly winds prevail across the
nearshore waters of Baja California Norte. The surface pressure
gradient that exists between the ridge and the trough is
supporting gentle to moderate N to NE winds, and seas in the
range from 5 feet to 7 feet. The ridge will build during the
middle of the week as the remnants of Norma dissipate, which will
freshen winds off the Baja California coast with seas building
to 6 to 8 feet.


A tropical wave across the W Caribbean is moving slowly into the
far eastern waters. Light to gentle monsoonal flow prevails to
the south of the monsoon trough, while gentle to moderate
southeasterly winds prevail to the N of the monsoon trough
between 90W and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle
northeasterly winds will briefly develop to N of the monsoon
trough Tue night before the trough lifts N and along the coasts.
S to SW swell continues to propagate across the area with seas
in the 6 to 8 foot range from 100W westward, and in the 4 to 6
foot range from 100W eastward.


Post-Tropical Cyclone OTIS near 18N129W 1008 MB moving WSW at 5
KT. Maximum sustained winds 30 KT gusts 40 KT. No convection is
associated with the remnants of Otis at this time. However,
sufficient pressure gradient exists between this low center and
a surface ridge to the NW to create strong NE to E winds 20 to
25 kt WITHIN 180 NM across the NW SEMICIRCLE, where seas are 8
to 11 ft. The low will continue to move WSW during the next 2
days and gradually dissipate, with an area of fresh to strong NE
to E winds and seas 8 to 9 ft accompanying it through Thu.

A 1030 mb high pressure center is located near 38N148W and
extends S and SE into the waters N of 25N. The surface pressure
gradient that exists between this high pressure, and the lower
pressure that is in the vicinity of the monsoon trough, will
maintain moderate to fresh trade winds to the N of 20N west of
120W, and to the NW of Otis remnants, with seas in the 6 to 9
foot range. The ridge will prevail in the northern waters during
the next few of days with these general conditions persisting.

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