Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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165 FXUS62 KCAE 091844 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 244 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach the area tonight and pass through on Friday, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will move in for the weekend. The high will move offshore Monday and increasing moisture will support showers and thunderstorms returning for next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The main area of convection has pushed south of the area this afternoon. While there will still be some lingering showers and a rumble of thunder or two at times as a shortwave at upper levels passes by, the main threat of any severe weather has ended for today. Clouds will keep temps much cooler this afternoon than the past few days. This evening will start out partly cloudy, but clouds and moisture will be on the increase again overnight as another shortwave moves eastward through the southeastern states. Scattered thunderstorms could return to the CSRA by sunrise, although the short term CAM models are already struggling with today`s convective trends, so confidence is not great in any particular solution. Temps will be seasonable overnight. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Friday...Thunderstorms will be approaching the Savannah River around dawn and should move through the remainder of the CWA from west to east during the morning hours, exiting the eastern area around noon. The threat for severe weather is lower with less available instability expected Friday morning. During the afternoon, the cold front will move through. This could bring another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain near normal. Friday night...There may be a few lingering showers and thunderstorms in the far east for a few hours in the evening, but then drier and cooler air will move in for the remainder of Friday night as the cold front moves offshore and high pressure builds in behind the front. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler. Saturday and Saturday night...Mostly clear skies will prevail under high pressure with temps running just a little below normal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sunday will be another dry day, with light winds and temps warming up again close to normal. Monday...high pressure will move offshore, bringing low level southerly and mid level southwesterly flow. This will increase temps a bit, but also increase moisture in the form of clouds and maybe some late day showers. Tuesday...An upper low will be moving through the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, with an upper trof trailing to the south. This will trigger widespread showers and thunderstorms over the area, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Temps will be a little below normal due to the significant cloud cover and occasional rain. Wednesday and Thursday...Additional scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms are expected as more weak disturbances move by in the southwesterly flow aloft. Timing of these is traditionally difficult this far out, so details will be changeable as we get into next week. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Unsettled weather pattern will continue across the Midlands and CSRA through Friday. Current radar trends show showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm still possible at the TAF sites, especially at AGS/DNL/OGB this afternoon through 20Z. Have included a tempo group for a stronger shower producing lower vsbys at both AGS/DNL. After this cluster of showers moved east of the Terminals this afternoon, skies will remain rather cloudy, but conditions should remain VFR for the evening and early overnight hours. There is potential for restrictions late tonight/early Friday morning with abundant moisture across the region. Model time sections show abundant low level moisture but with some low level wind overnight. Could see a period of MVFR conditions due to vsbys and ceilings. At this time, just put in a period of MVFR vsbys for all TAF sits beginning around 10Z. Another issue is the potential for another system that could bring shra/tsra from the early morning hours into midday. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Another day of convection and associated restrictions on Friday is possible. Drier weather with no restrictions likely for this weekend. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...