Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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131 FXUS63 KDDC 170939 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 439 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 ...Updated Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong warming trend is expected Friday through the weekend, with many locations warming well into the 90s Sunday afternoon. - Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and east of US 283 Sunday afternoon. Some storms will likely be severe with large hail. - A cold front is expected to provide cooler air Tuesday and Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 217 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Midnight infrared satellite imagery depicted a clear sky over SW KS with a few wisps of cirrus. Shortwave was passing well south, with clouds and any associated showers and thunderstorms well south in the Texas panhandle. Winds will remain light and variable through sunrise Friday, with low temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s. A pronounced warming trend is expected Friday through Saturday, with 00z models in agreement, showing strong rises in thickness, heights and 850 mb temperatures through the period. Models show a net warming of 4-6C at 850 mb over Thursday, supporting afternoon temperatures well into the 80s. Expecting few if any clouds in the dry subsident regime of building heights, with tame south winds of 10-20 mph. Boundary layer winds are expected to assume an easterly component on Saturday, but despite the addition of upslope, models show another 2- 4C of warming at 850 mb, with 500 mb heights > 580 dm by 7 pm. Roughly the southeast half of SW KS is expected to warm into the lower 90s. 00z NAM shows modest instability (MUCAPE 1-2k) with dewpoints in the 50s. Many models including NAM/ECMWF suggest an attempt at high based initiation Saturday afternoon, but the probability of measurable rain was kept at <15%. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 217 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Low amplitude shortwave is forecast to be near Grand Canyon, Arizona 7 am Sunday, and arrive over SW KS around peak heating Sunday afternoon/evening. A strong dryline is expected to be in place roughly along the US 283 corridor Sunday afternoon, with strong instability east of the boundary. Dewpoints well into the 60s and CAPE > 3,000 J/kg are expected in the warm sector east of the dryline. The majority of guidance suggest convective initiation along the dryline around 4-5 pm, in an environment of instability and shear clearly supportive of supercells. Strong consensus that any severe threat will be focused on the northeast zones of the DDC CWA, northeast of DDC, and after coordination with SPC the Day 3 risk area will highlight these zones. Global models including 00z GFS also show a pronounced warm dry push at 700 mb, with 700 mb temperatures as warm as +13C. As such, even though trough timing with the diurnal heating cycle currently looks favorable, initiation is far from certain with such a strong EML spreading over SW KS at 700 mb. NBM pops continue to favor the northeast zones, and these were accepted. Temperatures will soar into the 90s Sunday, especially west of the dryline, where highs in the 96-98 range are expected. Winds will be stronger than all guidance Sunday, and increased S/SW winds to the 90%ile of the NBM. Next week, models to varying degrees and placements depict a cold front making southward progress across the plains. Cold front progress into Kansas on Monday is expected to be slow enough such that southern zones adjacent to Oklahoma will still be hot, well into the 90s. Indeed, 00z GEFS ensemble members show a 30-40% probability of temperatures exceeding 100 Monday afternoon in the favored Red Hills southeast of DDC (Ashland to Coldwater). Cooler air is expected to make better progress through the central plains Tuesday, with 00z EPS/ECMWF placing the cold front well south into West Texas at 7 am Wednesday. 00z GEFS/MEX guidance Tuesday/Wednesday is significantly cooler than the NBM, so the forecast may not be cool enough. Regarding rain/thunderstorm chances, pops favor the northern zones in the post frontal environment Monday night. Pops (as well as any severe potential) appear to dwindle quickly Tuesday and Wednesday, as a cooler more stable boundary layer pushes instability southward out of SW KS. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 439 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with VFR/SKC and light winds. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Turner AVIATION...Turner