178
FXUS64 KMEG 182342
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
642 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

A ridge of high pressure will build into the Mid-South tonight
bringing an end to shower and thunderstorm chances through
Tuesday. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s by
early next week. An unsettled pattern is expected to develop
across the Lower Mississippi Valley next Wednesday into the start
of the Memorial Day weekend, bringing daily shower and
thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends show the remnants of last
night`s MCV over portions of West Tennessee near the Tennessee
River. A shortwave rotating around this MCV has resulted in the
re-development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
mainly over northeast Mississippi and portions of West Tennessee.
Otherwise, mostly sunny skies prevail across the remainder of the
Mid-South with temperatures as of 2 PM CDT in the 70s to lower
80s.

Short-term models indicate isolated/scattered showers and
thunderstorms will diminish into early this evening as the MCV
pushes away from the Lower Mississippi Valley. An isolated strong
thunderstorm or two containing gusty winds, small hail, and
localized heavy rainfall will be possible over northeast
Mississippi for the next few hours. Short-term model soundings and
HREF Grand Ensemble indicate the probabilities for fog overnight
will be sufficient to mention patchy to areas of fog in the
forecast for late tonight with relatively clear skies, light to
nearly calm winds, and ample low-level moisture from recent
rainfall.

Surface and upper-level ridging is expected to build across the
Lower Mississippi Valley into Tuesday. This will result in
afternoon highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s as 925 mb
temperatures increase to between 22-24C. Long-term models indicate
the potential for showers and thunderstorms each day beginning
next Wednesday into the start of the Memorial Day weekend as a
cold front drops into the Lower Mississippi Valley and retreats
back north as a warm front towards the end of the period. There is
a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.
However, confidence is a bit lower as better forcing will remain
displaced upstream over the Middle Mississippi Valley.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

A weak low pressure system will push east of the region over the
next couple of hours ending precipitation across the Mid-South.
Thereafter, clear skies and nearly calm winds will result in light
fog at all sites. MVFR VSBYs are possible, but confidence in
IFR/LIFR is low right now. VFR conditions and northeast winds
will prevail through the end of the period.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AC3