205
FXUS64 KMEG 132328
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
628 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Unsettled weather will continue through Tuesday as an upper level
disturbance and cold front slowly progress across the region. A
few strong storms are possible late tonight and again in the
afternoon hours on Tuesday. Dry conditions will return on
Wednesday as we are in between weather systems. Showers and
thunderstorms will return Thursday and persist through early
Saturday. A mostly dry weekend with near normal temperatures is
expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A cool and cloudy afternoon across the Mid-South. Heavy cloud
cover has persisted this afternoon beneath southwest flow aloft.
The latest KNQA radar sweep reveals just a few light showers,
mainly over portions of northwest Tennessee. The latest GOES east
Water Vapor Imagery shows a robust MCS across the Florida
Panhandle, with another MCS over southeast Texas. A compact upper
low was also analyzed near the Missouri and Kansas border.

Mainly dry conditions will persist through early evening across
the entire Mid-South. Thereafter, a shortwave will eject from the
base of upper low and nearly phase with a southern stream wave
coming out of the ArkLaTex. As it does, two areas of scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop this evening. A few of the
storms could be strong to severe, as up to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and
up to 50 knots of deep layer shear will be on hand. The main
threats with any strong storms will be hail and gusty winds, as
mid level lapse rates will approach 7.5 C/km and DCAPE values
will be nearing 800 J/kg. The threat of strong storms should end
as storms approach the Tennessee River before sunrise Tuesday
morning.

The upper low and associated surface low will push slowly through
the Mid-South late tomorrow morning through tomorrow evening.
Instability will be maximized ahead of the front or for areas east
of the Mississippi River, where up to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE will be
available. Strong storms could form along the cold front by early
afternoon and produce hail and gusty winds. Storms will likely
push east of the Tennessee River before midnight.

Dry conditions will return on Wednesday and persist into much of
Thursday as shortwave ridging builds in overhead. The weather will
become unsettled once again late Thursday, as several shortwaves
translate through southwest flow aloft. A marginal threat of
strong storms will likely exist during this period as 1000 J/kg of
SBCAPE will be available and up to 30 knots of shear.

Mainly dry conditions are expected this weekend as we remain under
a weak ridge. Did carry a 20 to 30 PoP each day, as some diurnal
showers and thunderstorms may bubble up. A weak and mostly dry cold
front looks to move through the Lower Mississippi Valley late
Sunday into Monday as a large trough digs across the Ohio Valley.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A couple of shortwave troughs rotating around an upper-level low
centered near west central Missouri will be the focus for showers
and elevated TS later this evening and overnight. This is
generally in line with the latest high-res, TCF, and GLAMP
guidance. Ceilings were adjusted for the start of the 00Z TAF
period as latest guidance including HREF Grand Ensemble data holds
off IFR ceilings until mostly during the overnight period. An
improvement to MVFR conditions anticipated Tuesday morning, then
VFR conditions by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...CJC