066
FXUS64 KMEG 200828
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
328 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Warm and dry weather will remain across the Mid-South through
Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s as high pressure
remains over the area. A pattern shift will take place late
Tuesday and into early Wednesday as several disturbances move over
the region. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Wednesday and
will extend through Memorial Day under this unsettled pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Current temperatures at this hour are in the low 60s to low 70s
with mostly calm winds at the surface and clear skies across the
Mid-South. A thin cirrus shield will slowly moving in from the
west heading closer to sunrise. This thin shield should limit fog
development in areas along and west of the Mississippi River.
Areas along the Tennessee River and areas near lakes will continue
to fog with reduced visibilities. Shortly after sunrise, fog will
lift as wind speeds increase and radiational cooling decreases.

Surface high pressure and upper level ridging remains in place
over the Mid- South resulting in warm and benign weather through
Tuesday. South winds and the aforementioned ridge will continue to
usher in warm, dry air from the southwest leading to a pretty
warm start to our week with many areas across the region seeing
afternoon highs near to slightly above 90 degrees. Our main
weather story will begin late Tuesday and into early Wednesday as
ridging begins to weaken and build east. A weak surface low looks
to set up over the southern, Upper Mississippi Valley with an
attached cold front. This front looks to begin pushing showers and
thunderstorms, northwest to southeast, across the Mid-South
beginning early Wednesday morning.

These showers and thunderstorms will be moving into a pretty decent
convective environment with surface based CAPE values around 1500-2000
J/kg, 0-6 Bulk Shear values around 35 kts, mid-level lapse rates
6.8+ C/km, and a decent swath of warm air advection giving extra
lift. The best severe environment looks to pan out in areas along
and west of the Mississippi River along a slightly pronounced
shortwave. The Storm Prediction Center has these areas highlighted
under a Slight (15%) Risk for Wednesday. We are monitoring models
and convective parameters closely as uncertainty still remains
pretty high and parameters remain mainly surface based. Bottom
line, a conditional chance for severe weather exists Wednesday.

By Friday, the aforementioned cold front looks to lift north as a
warm front giving support to continued shower and thunderstorm
movement across the Mid-South. Several shortwaves along quasi-
zonal flow look to move over the Mid-South through Memorial Day,
keeping shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast. We are
carrying 30-40% PoPs in the grids through Memorial Day. Looks like
we`ll be having a pretty active end to our May. Be on the
lookout...

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period as a midlevel ridge
builds in. Light winds overnight should pick up to 6-9kts from
the south/southeast by mid morning Monday.

CAD

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CAD