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FXAK67 PAJK 261316
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
516 AM AKDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SHORT TERM.../ Monday to Wednesday / The remains of the old low
from the weekend dissipated and the upper level support is moving
into central British Columbia early Monday. The flow about that
low is drawing a band of colder topped clouds south over the
central panhandle towards the Prince of Wales area. Some lower
clouds over the northeast gulf and along the Icy Strait/Cross
Sound area to Gustavus and likely to Yakutat, though higher clouds
on the satellite imagery is hiding that feature this morning.
Isolated to scattered showers through Monday and Monday night due
to combination of the flow over the coast range into the
panhandle, and a westerly orographic lifting pattern.

Short wave(s) ejecting out of a low over the Bering Sea see still
have Tuesday to Wednesday are trying to lift over the Gulf of
Alaska ridge. Am expecting the best rain fall areas Tuesday into
Wednesday over the north central gulf east to near Cape
Fairweather.

Local pockets of 25 kt winds in the Northwest flow along the
panhandle Monday evening have a few areas of small craft
advisories on Monday night. Over Lynn Canal do expect the
southerly winds to pick back up to 20 to 25 kt range in the late
afternoon and evening as well.


.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...As of 930 PM Sun...Period
begins with upper ridge just E of the AOR as an upper trough
approaches the W gulf. Models continue to struggle with this
details regarding the approaching trough and the timing and
strength of short wave troughs ejecting out from the parent
trough. coming to a consensus on the approaching trough. Given the
large model discrepancies, elected to maintain inherited forecast
with precip chances increasing along the N gulf coast Wed then
spreading into the entire panhandle Thu. Timing better precip
chances will improve as systems approach, but for now kept chance
PoPs across most of the CWA with AKZ017 having highest chances
late this week. Model solutions diverge more significantly late
this week into the weekend. EC solution is fastest with a closed
upper low moving across the S gulf/N Pac. GFS/GEM have similar,
but slower solutions with ensemble means favoring the slower
progression of this feature. Since model agreement is poor by the
middle of the week, do not favor any solution for next weekend.
Made minimal change to inherited forecast and kept it trended
towards WPC guidance late this week through weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Areas of IMC this morning due low CIGS as well as
reduced vis will impact aviation operations through mid morning or
later. Conditions improving to MVMC as showers depart the area,
but a return of IMC conditions is possible overnight tonight. No
LLWS expected, but low level jet near the southern outer coast
will make for some bumpy flight conditions today. Likewise over
the far northern inner channels - up Lynn Canal and into Skagway
when winds are forecast to gust to 30 kts out of the south later
today.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-041>043.

&&

$$

Bezenek/Fritsch/BC

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