Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 301036
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
636 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY...THEN MOVE INLAND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY COMFY AIR OVR THE FA ATTM. BKN-OVC CLDS (CIGS MNLY 6-8KFT)
ACRS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SCNTRL VA HOLDING UP TEMPS A BIT...OTRW
MOST TEMPS (AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE CST) FM THE M50S TO M60S.
BEEN WATCHING AREA OF SHRAS TRACKING THROUGH PORTIONS OF SCNTRL VA
WHILE SLOLY DWINDLING (PAST COUPLE HRS). WILL HANG ONTO SLGT CHC
POPS NR THE VA/NC BORDER ON INTO INTERIOR NE NC THROUGH THE EARLY
MRNG HRS. BROAD/UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH RMNS OVR THE ERN
CONUS...CONTG TO PROVIDE MNLY DRY/COMFY WX FOR THE FA TDA. XPCG
P/MSNY CONDS...W/ DEWPTS RMNG FM THE 50S TO L60S...AND HI TEMPS
AVGG 5 TO 10 DEGS F (ONCE AGN)...RANGING FM THE U70S ALG THE
IMMEDIATE CST TO L/M80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER COMFY NGT TNGT W/ CLR TO PCLDY CONDS. MOST LO TEMPS
RANGING FM THE U50S TO M60S. TROUGH ALOFT WEAKENS/SHIFTS A BIT
WWD THU INTO FRI. WK SFC HI PRES WILL BE OFF THE CST THU...WITH
SSE LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE M/U80S. BY FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...W/ DP LYRD SWLY FLO ALOFT
(OVR THE ERN SEABOARD) AND A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE VA/NC COAST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN INCRSD SHRA/TSTM CHANCES LOCALLY (ESPECIALLY AFTN)...AND
THUS WILL CARRY SOLID CHC POPS (30-40%) FRI. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND AND PCPN POSSIBLE...HI TEMPS FRI WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH
COOLER THAN THU...IN THE L/M80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME FOR MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WILL RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO THE MS VLY AHEAD OF THE BUILDING
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PW VALUES/DEEP LYR
MOISTURE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS, SCT SHRAS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH, WHICH WILL LOCATE ALONG/JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BY
MONDAY. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM TO KEY
IN ON, WILL LEAN TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY AND USE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
THROUGH THE SAT-TUE TIME PERIOD. FOR TEMPS, LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REMAIN
AT OR BELOW CLIMO NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING INTO THE L-M 80S
SUNDAY/MONDAY...85 TO 90 ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S SUN MORNING, INCREMENTALLY
INCREASING TO U60S TO AROUND 70 BY EARLY MONDAY/TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AND DRY THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. SFC HI PRES REMAINS OVR THE
REGION TDA...SLIDING OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENG. THIS WILL LEAD TO
AREAS OF SKC WITH SOME SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PSBL AT TIMES.
WINDS STAY LGT TDA AND BCM SLY TNGT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTN/EVENING TSTMS FRIDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF PCPN THROUGH FRIDAY.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE MID ATLANTIC TDA WILL LEAD TO BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS...WINDS AOB 10 KT AND WAVES/SEAS AOB 2 FT. THE HI SLIDES
OFFSHORE TNGT...WITH WINDS BCMG S/SE ~10 KT. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THU WITH SEAS OVR NRN CSTL WTRS BLDG TO 3 FT. A CSTL/INVERTED TROF
DEVELOPS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC CST FRI THRU SUN...WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
S ON AVG WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVR THE WTRS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS





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