Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 191956
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
356 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will linger just offshore and south of the region
through tonight. High pressure builds into the region late
tonight through early next week. The next cold front will impact
the region on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The latest surface analysis shows a cold front extending from just
offshore of the region into portions of coastal North Carolina.
Dewpoints continue to drop off behind the front with readings
dropping back into the middle to upper 60s across portions of the
piedmont to the lower/middle 70s at the immediate coast line and
across NE North Carolina. Scattered cumulus have developed across
the region this afternoon behind the front and are expected to
diminish after sunset. A scattered shower or storm cannot be ruled
out late this afternoon and into the evening closer to the boundary
and where deeper moisture exists across far SE Virginia and NE North
Carolina. Any shower activity should also dissipate after sunset.
Mostly clear skies are expected overnight with the potential for
some patchy fog early in the morning. Slightly cooler and a bit more
comfortable overnight with lows in the upper 60s to near 70 across
the piedmont and lower 70s elsewhere.

For Sunday...High pressure builds back into the region for Sunday
allowing for dry conditions and mostly sunny skies for much of the
region. Highs will range from the mid to upper 80s along the coast
to around 90 degrees inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday night begins with high pressure centered just north of
the area across MD and PA. This will provide a quiet evening
with generally light e to se flow. Will see a little return of
Atlantic moisture but overall expect dry weather mostly clear
conditions. Temperatures should cool a little more than in
recent days with low in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

The area of high pressure slides off the coast on Monday and the
flow turns se to s, which will allow some additional moisture to
return to the area. The orographic lift will allow some
convection to form along the Blue Ridge and Appalachian
mountains. Some of this convection could slide newd off the
higher terrain and impact portions of the Piedmont counties
later on Monday afternoon and evening so have continued the
slight chance pops. But most areas should be dry due to a lack
of lift and little mid level moisture. Temperatures should begin
to climb with most areas getting back up into the lower 90s.

Monday night into Tuesday expect mainly dry weather as well, but
the humidity will still be there as the southerly flow
continues. Lows during the overnight hours should be in the low
to mid 70s and the highs on Tuesday should be a little warmer
again with highs still in the low to mid 90s. The southeastern
portion of the cwa would have the best chance for an isolated
shower as some Atlantic moisture lifts newd into NE NC and the
VA Tidewater.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Stacked high pressure resides off the Southeast Coast as a
pre-frontal trough develops ahead of an approaching cold front
and in the lee of the mts Tue night. Overall, Tue night should
be dry with isolated showers/storms possibly sneaking into
the far wrn Piedmont and/or MD Lower Eastern Shore invof the
developing trough. Warm and humid overnight with lows in the
low-mid 70s. The cold front tracks through the area on Wed...
exiting the coast by Thu morning. Thunderstorms expected to
become more organized as the front provides better focus for
lift/development. Lingering showers/storms possible
far SE VA/NE NC on Thu, although they should taper off from
NW to SE as the front moves farther southeast and away from
the area. Otherwise, cool Canadian high pressure builds across
the Midwest into the ern Great Lakes Thu-Sat with dry
conditions anticipated during this timeframe.

Highs Wed generally upper 80s to lower 90s (mid 80s beaches).
Highs Thu-Sat lower 80s (mid 70s beaches). Lows Wed night
mid-upper 60s NW to 70-74F SE. Lows Thu/Fri nights around
60F NW to around 70F SE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions are anticipated through the 18Z forecast
besides the potential for some patchy fog early Sunday morning.
Scattered cumulus have developed behind a frontal boundary this
afternoon with bases generally at or above 3500 feet. Generally
clear skies are expected overnight and into tomorrow morning. There
is the potential for some patchy MVFR fog, mainly after 06Z, at the
typical fog-prone locations (SBY/ECG/PHF). All fog should quickly
dissipate after sunrise. Generally light northwest winds are
expected this afternoon ranging from 5 to 10 knots. Winds become
light and variable overnight before becoming southeasterly on
Sunday.

Outlook: Generally VFR conditions through Monday as high pressure
builds back into the region. There will once again be the potential
for some patchy fog early on Monday morning. The next front
approaches the region late Tuesday and into Wednesday. Sub-VFR
conditions and showers/thunderstorms will be possible on
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign conditions through Sun with light/variable winds
aob 10kt. Winds become more onshore Sun night into Mon
(remaining aob 10kt) as a front near the Mid Atlantic Coast
washes out/weakens. Seas average 2ft; waves 1-2ft. South winds
Mon night-Tue night with stacked high pressure off the
Southeast Coast and a thermal trough developing in the lee of
the mts Tue night. A surge in winds is anticipated Tue night
into Wed morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Speeds
could reach 15-20kt Bay/ocean with seas building to 3-4ft
north and 2-3ft south; waves building to 2-3ft. SCA flags may
be possible for these areas in this timeframe. The next cold
front is expected to cross the region during Wed and exit the
coast by Thu morning. Winds N-NE aob 15kt behind front Wed
aftn/evening through Sat. Seas 2-3ft/waves 1-3ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...BMD



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