Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021944
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLOWLY DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ISOLD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS WILL CONT THROUGH THIS EVE AS WEAKENING
TROUGH ALOFT TRACKS ACRS THE FA. XPCG TREND DOWN IN COVERAGE AFT
01-04Z/03. OTRW...VRB CLDS THROUGH TNGT. LOCALLY HEAVY RA PSBL IN
ANY STMS. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S-L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WK SFC TROUGH LINGERS OVR THE FA...ESP ERN HALF THU/THU NGT. AFTER
THAT...HI PRES ALOFT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NE CONUS FRI INTO SAT. WK BNDRY WILL THEN BE SETTLING S
THROUGH THE MDATLC STATES FRI AFTN INTO SAT MRNG AS SFC HI PRES
BUILDS S THROUGH NEW ENG.

ANOTHER SUMMERY DAY THU W/ VRB CLDS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDS. PSBLY
ENOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF SEA BREEZES AND SFC TROUGH FOR INCLUSION
OF AT LEAST SLGT CHC POPS...MNLY AFTN/EVE HRS. HI TEMPS FM THE
U80S-L90S.

PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS XPCD THU NGT AND FRI AS SFC WNDS TURN
NE RESULTING IN THE START OF A COOLDOWN. ONCE AGN...LO CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE OF PCPN...THOUGH WILL FAVOR HIGHEST POPS INLAND FM THE
CST (BY FRI AFTN). PD OF STRATUS PSBL FRI NGT INTO SAT (MRNG) AS
WNDS PICK UP FM THE NE...WHICH USHERS IN (EVENTUALLY SAT AFTN)
DRIER AIR (AND GRADUALLY CLEARING - LASTLY ACRS SRN VA/NE NC) FM
THE NE CONUS. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS FRI NGT INTO SAT...THOUGH
TREND IN ANY PCPN XPCD TO BE LWRG FM NE TO SW. ALSO...WILL LIKELY
BE A BREEZY START TO THE HOLIDAY WKND...ESP ERN PORTION...W/ PTNTL
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.

LO TEMPS THU NGT FM THE U60S-70S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE L/M80S NE TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F SSW. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO
L80S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY WX WITH SFC HI PRES IN
THE VICINITY. FOR SAT NGT/ERLY SUN...NE FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE
FA AS SFC HI PRES CENTERS OVER THE NRN MID ATLC. WITH SOME MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW DID HOLD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE POPS OVER SE
AREAS SAT NGT. TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE 60S SAT NGT AND REACH ONLY
THE LO/MID 80S SUN AFTN. FLOW BCMS ELY MON THAN SLY BY TUE AND
WED AS THE HI SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LO/MID 80S MON TO MID/UPR 80S TUE
AND WED. BULK OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO STAY S OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH ANY CHANCE OF RAIN (20%) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. TSTMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRIC SHOULD MOVE SEWD AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL BY
1830Z. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
22Z TO 01Z TIME FRAME...PER HI-RES MODELS. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAFS...AS THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNDERCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT OF LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS. HAVE INSERTED SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE
INTO KRIC/KECG/KSBY TAFS AS AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER STAGNANT...BUT
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY. KECG
HAD LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...AND THREAT FOR THIS OCCURRING
THURSDAY MORNING EXISTS.

OUTLOOK...OUTSIDE OF SCTD MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHWRS/TSTMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STRATUS AND FOG AT SOME OF THE
TAF SITES WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCEAN STRATUS LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES NEC WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS REMAIN AOB 10
KT THIS AFTN INTO TNGT WITH A WEAK TROF OF LO PRES OVER THE
AREA...WITH WAVES/SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT. SIMILAR PATTERN AND
CONDS INTO THUR WITH SOME AFTN SEABREEZES DEVELOPING. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRNT THEN DROPS INTO THE AREA FRI AS HI PRES DEVELOPS OVER
THE NE STATES. PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ENUF INTO FRI NIGHT TO
MAKE SCA CONDS PSBL OVER THE WTRS...LASTING THRU SAT AND SAT NGT
AS NE FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE BY SUN AS THE SFC
HI WEAKENS AND FLOW BCMS MORE OUT OF THE E THAN NE. WINDS THEN
TURN TO THE SE THEN S MON INTO TUE WITH SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB/SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/SAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...WRS
MARINE...MAS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.