Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071505
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1105 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT
FRONT WILL THEN DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS INDICATING A WEAK SFC/LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACRS THE LOCAL AREA...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE OFF
THE MID/ATLC AND SE COAST. WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN FINALLY
LOOKS TO BE DRIER TODAY...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20% CHC FOR AFTN
TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...MAINLY E OF I-95. NAM/GFS AND HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW SOME SHALLOW/MAINLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING IN
THESE AREAS THIS AFTN...AND ALREADY SEEING A FAIR CU FIELD POPPING
OVER NE NC AND SE VA. THIS IS WHERE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP
OCCURRED LAST EVENING. LATEST HRRR WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED
TSTMS AFTER ABOUT 18Z WHERE THIS CU-FIELD IS DEVELOPING.

OTHERWISE...SKIES AVG MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH EARLY AFTN OTHER THAN
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SE VA/NE NC...WITH GENLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING PEAK HEATING 18-21Z. SLOWLY RISING 850 MB
TEMPS/A SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW/AND MORE SUNSHINE THAN PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LWR 90S MOST AREAS. HI TEMPS
AT THE IMMEDIATE CST WILL BE IN THE 80S. HUMIDITY WILL YIELD PEAK HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S/AROUND 100 F.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM/HUMID TNGT WITH LOWS IN THE LWR TO MID 70S. WED IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN-FREE INTO THE MID AFTN...BEFORE A FRNTL BNDRY
FM THE NW DRIFTS CLOSER...COMBINING WITH HEATING...COULD RESULT
IN LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS...ESPLY ACRS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
POPS WILL RANGE FM 20% ACRS EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC...TO 40-50%
ACRS NNE COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S...WITH HEAT INDICES 95 TO ARND 100. MODELS SHOW SOME CONTINUED
SHRTWV ENERGY OVRNGT WED NGT ACRS THE NE ZONES...AND WILL
MAINTAIN CHC POPS (30%) THERE INTO THE EARLY MORNG HRS OF THU.
LOWS 70-75. CONTINUED HOT ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S. SLGT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENG TSTMS ACRS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SERN U.S. H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES DIVING SOUTH. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE
DIFFICULT...SO MAINLY WENT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TSTM POPS OF 20-30%
EACH AFTN/EVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...AND HIGHS
IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 702 AM EDT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS
MORNING, WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY. ATM WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED THIS EVENING WITH SHARPENING
THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT WINDS IN
TAF AOA 5KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO ~15
KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ORF/PHF. A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN
EXPECTED FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, AS A WEAK COOL FRONT
WILL AGAIN APPROACH THE AREA, ONLY TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. TYPICAL ISOLATED LATE AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE WED-
THU, CLEARING OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR MORE OF
THE SAME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/VIS RESTRICTIONS FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 702 AM EDT...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. SFC HIGH WILL LONGER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS WEAK SFC TROUGH SHARPENS INLAND. SW FLOW HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
W/ SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. WAVEWATCH IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
GOING FORECAST, AND HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES THERE. SEAS AVGG 2-4
FEET/BAY 2-3FT TNGT THROUGH THU.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...MAM


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