Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 222017
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
417 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides father off the mid Atlantic coast tonight. A
cold front will approach from the west on Monday, then slowly
push through the local area on Tuesday. High pressure builds
across the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and Thursday...as low
pressure lingers from the Great Lakes to New England.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Current analysis indicates ~1030 mb sfc high pressure centered
off the NJ coast w/ upper level ridge axis aligned N-S invof
ern seaboard. Another warm/mostly sunny day across the region,
though some SCT cu have developed with sfc dew pts a bit higher
than the past few days. Mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight with
lows mainly in the 50s. During Mon...low pressure deepens over
the deep South/lower MS Valley while a strong upper ridge
remains in place slides just off the East Coast. Still
warm/mainly dry through Mon...increasing PoPs limited to (well)
W of I 95 toward late aftn/early evening. Highs in the u70s E
to the l-m70s W (where clouds begin to thicken in the afternoon).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Latest 12Z/22 GFS/NAM/ECMWF remain fairly similar w/ the
overall timing of the next cold front...now depicting the best
lift/forcing for likely to categorical PoPs (60-90%) from about
06Z/Tue through 16Z/Tue (lingering into Tue evening along the
ern shore). Strong low level jet and sfc dew pts in the
60s...will allow for some locally heavy downpours and isolated
tstms late Mon night/Tue morning...mainly for southern/SE VA/NE
NC. While a few strong storms/gusty winds will be possible,
severe threat looks limited due to unfavorable timing. Partial
clearing expected Tue by late morning W and by late aftn E...and
have continued w/ lowering PoP trend W-E. Still mild through
Tue w/ lows Mon night in the 60s...then highs Tues in the 70s to
near 80 F SE as cold air lags well behind off to the NW of the
local area.

Cold front reaches the coast early Tue night and is expected
to exit the coast by daybreak Wed morning. Any RA tapers
pushes off the coast Tue evening. Temperatures falling from the
60s in the evening to 50F inland and upper 50s closer to the
coast by Wed morning. Dewpoints also fall from the lower 50s NW
to lower 60s SE in the evening to 40-45F inland and 45F to
around 50F by morning. On Wed, area looks to remain in between
the sfc cold front well offshore and deeper moisture/cold pool
aloft to our WNW. Enough instability present to keep skies
partly to mostly cloudy, but will keep the forecast dry attm.
Cooler with highs mainly from the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry conditions Wed night as exiting cold front moves well
offshore. Light showers possible (mainly Delmarva) Thu morning
as upper trough swings through the region. Otherwise, dry
conditions prevail Thu through at least Sat as sfc high
pressure builds in from the SW Thu and shifts off the Mid
Atlantic Coast during Fri. The high then tracks up off the New
England Coast for Sat. Model consensus diverges Sat night into
Sun. ECMWF has a coastal low developing near the area...while
the GFS not only has a coastal low developing near the area
but also a deepening sfc low over the Great Lakes Region into
Ontario. Incoming precip differs greatly between models,
therefore have leaned closer to climatology during this time.

Temperatures at to slightly below normal for Wed night with
lows in the 40s (upper 30s possible far NW counties). Temps
slow to rebound on Thu as upper trough swings through and more
stable NW flow aloft develops over the area. Highs 60-64F. High
pressure slides into the region Thu night and then temperatures
slowly moderate. Lows Thu night in the 40s (around 50F beaches).
Seasonal normal highs Fri in the upper 60s to around 70F. Lows
Fri night in the upper 40s inland to 50-55F immediate coast.
Highs Sat in the lower 70s (upper 60s beaches). Lows Sat night
generally in the 50s (upper 40s Eastern Piedmont). Highs Sun
generally in the upper 60s to around 70F (mid 60s Eastern
Piedmont).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sfc high pressure off the Mid- Atlantic coast attm and will have
VFR conditions through the evening hrs. Additional fog possible
late tonight/early Mon morning, but will probably be a bit more
inland than past few nights (less at ECG) as some mixing is
expected closer to the coast. Becoming VFR after 13Z/Mon with
somewhat breezy SSE winds near the coast. A cold front is
forecast to track through the region Mon night through Tue
morning. This will bring the potential for MVFR/IFR conditions
in rain and low CIGs. Mainly VFR Tue aftn/eve through Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will slide farther into the Atlc tonight into Mon
morning, allowing a frontal boundary with low pressure areas
riding nwrd along it to push ewrd thru the OH and TN valleys.
Expect ESE then SE winds arnd 10 kt or less this evening into
Mon morning. Waves 1 to 2 ft and Seas 2 to 3 ft.

That frontal boundary and associated low pressure areas will
approach fm the west late Mon thru Tue, then push acrs the
waters and offshore Tue night into Wed morning. The pressure
gradient will lead to increasing SE then S flow ahead of the
front later Mon thru Tue morning, then shifting to the WNW
behind the front Tue night into Wed morning. Have issued Small
Craft Advisories for all the waters fm Mon night into at least
early Tue aftn (for the Rivers), then lingering SCA`s thru Tue
aftn/early Tue evening for the Ches Bay and Currituck Snd. Will
have SCA`s for the coastal waters fm Mon night thru Wed. S winds
of 15-25 kt with higher gusts will occur Mon night into Tue
evening.

Seas will build to 5-9 ft with waves of 3-4 ft in the Ches Bay
likely. W to NW winds 10-15 kt expected Wed night thru Thu, as
the front pushes out to sea and high pressure builds into the
area fm the west.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 1 PM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Monday to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 7 PM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...TMG



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