Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 012333
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
733 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES NEAR
THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION ALONG THE SFC TROF NOW WINDING DOWN AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DSPT NEXT FEW HRS WITH LOSS OF HTNG. KEPT 20-30 POP ACROSS THE
CHES BAY AND ERN SHORE AREAS THRU THE EVENING. WEAK SFC RIDGING
EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY TONIGHT. MSTLY CLR TO PT
CLDY AND MUGGY. LOWS 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...
MINI HEAT WAVE CULMINATES TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND WITH
LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WHICH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SERVE TO KEEP
HEAT INDICES AOB 100. FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL JUST SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
REFERENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE
WELL-CAPPED ABOVE CU BASES, AND THUS HAVE KEPT A SILENT POP
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ASIDE FROM NE NC ALONG SEA BREEZE. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA, WITH THE SFC TROUGH BECOMING
STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED
BACK NORTH ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS, WILL GO WITH A
20-30% POP EACH DAY CENTERED MAINLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT DO EXPECT SKY COVER TO
AVERAGE OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL DROPPING BACK TO AROUND
90 INLAND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR THU NGT/FRI...SFC HI PRES CENTERS
OFFSHORE WITH A BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE-CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM (ESPECIALLY OVR WRN
AREAS) CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND SFC LEE TROF...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS FRI WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY SKY AND LGT SLY WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST
AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. TOUGH TO EXACTLY TIME THE PRECIP THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 30-40% CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSTMS BOTH
SAT AND SUN. HI TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT WILL BE NEAR
90...DROPPING INTO THE LO TO MID 80S ON SUN WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE OVERNIGHT. MOIST
ATMOSPHERE MAY LEAD TO MVFR VIS TUES MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE SSW-SW AOB 10 KT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK BUT AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
REGION...EXPECT ISOLATED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE
REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS
AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
ANCHORED OVR THE WRN ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WITH A LEE TROF OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC. RESULTING SLY FLOW WILL AVG 10-15 KT...WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVR THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVR CSTL WTRS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO
TUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
AREA AND WEAKENS TUE NGT/WED...LEADING TO LGT/VRB WINDS BY LATE
WED/WED NGT AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES ATTM
DUE TO A LACK OF CAA/SURGE POST FRONTAL. HI PRES RETURNS WED NGT
THRU FRI AS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...






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