Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 251733
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
133 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front stalls over the Carolinas today into Monday. High
pressure builds into the area through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No major changes to the going forecast necessary. Sct to bkn
mid-level cloud deck moving across the piedmont should scour out
as it advances east toward I-95 through midday. Becoming partly
to mostly sunny, warm and slightly less humid by aftn with
dewpoints dropping off slightly. Farther east, a bit more humid
through mid to late afternoon until sfc trough edges offshore
and drier air begins to filter across the area. Still expect a
few seabreeze-aided Isolated to widely scattered showers and
t-storms possible along the coast through early evening.
Incrementally cooler and becoming a bit drier area-wide by
evening. Highs upper 80s to around 90.

Previous discussion...

Broad trough aloft from the Midwest through the OH Valley into
the eastern CONUS will control the wx today. Sfc cold has slowed
down invof SE VA as expected...and will continue to remain
stubborn in settling SE into this afternoon. Guidance drops
dewpoints into/through the 60s over the FA as as winds (though
light) become more NNW. Will be carry slgt chc PoPs invof
coastal SE VA-NE NC where local convergence (aided by seabreeze)
and at least marginal instability hang on. Otherwise...averaging
partly sunny...a bit more tolerable (as the drying begins) and
highs in the m-u80s...l80s at the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Any evening convection wanes...otherwise clear to partly cloudy
tonight w/ lows in the m-u50s NW to m-u60s SE.

Upper trough will drop across the Great Lakes through Mon...w/
a lead s/w dropping across into the mountains. This feature
will push the secondary cold front toward the local area Mon
,prmomg...dropping across the local area late Mon/Mon night. As
a result...conditions become partly cloudy. An ISOLD shower or
two is possible with the frontal passage along the coast.
However...given dry antecedent airmass...expecting little more
than some increasing clouds and will keep pops in silent range
for now. Highs 80-85F (u70s at the beaches).

Even cooler behind the secondary front. After a cool...pleasant
night Monday night with lows in the 50s to m60s...then highs in
the u70s-l80s Tue. A second...stronger s/w aloft will drop
across the local area in NW flow aloft Tues. Despite dry
airmass...this feature could prove strong enough to squeeze out
a shower or thunderstorm...esp in SE VA-NE NC where slightly
better moisture may spread NE ahead of that s/w aloft. Going w/
PoPs 15-25% those areas for now.

Sfc hi pres finally builds into/over the region Tue night-Wed
providing dry/comfortable conditions under mainly SKC. Lows in
the m50s inland to the l60s at the coast. Highs Wed 80-85F...70s
at the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Long term period will feature generally dry wx with increasing temps
through the period. Dry wx into Thu as sfc high slides offshore
allowing for S/SW to develop across the Mid Atlantic and temps
to max out in the mid-upr 80s. Similar conditions into Fri with
a mostly sunny sky and high temps mainly into the upr 80s to
near 90.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions through the 18Z TAF. A cold front
will continue to settle southeast through North Carolina this
afternoon. A few widely scattered showers have popped up this
afternoon across extreme SE VA and NE NC, am not anticipating any
adverse conditions at the TAF sites. Any shower activity comes to an
end after sunset with decreasing cloud cover overnight. Dry
conditions are expected for Monday.

Outlook: VFR conditions are likely for much of the work week as high
pressure builds over the region. A few showers may be possible on
Tuesday as a reinforcing cold front moves through the area.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front stalls just south of the waters late this morning into
this afternoon. Little in the way of CAA behind the front, so
anticipate winds mainly aob 10 kt today and Mon, with 1-2 ft waves
over the Bay and 2-3 ft seas over the coastal waters. Another cold
front crosses the region Mon night, but again CAA is weak following
the front so expect sub-SCA conditions to continue. Sfc high
pressure returns for the middle of the coming week, then slides
offshore late in the week. An increase in winds from the S-SW (10-
20kt) should occur by Thursday/Friday, along with the potential
for seas building to 3-5 ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB/MAS
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...JDM



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