Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 190015
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
815 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and muggy conditions will continue into tonight
ahead of a cold front. Behind this front, most of Saturday
looks fair and breezy before a second cold front crosses the
area Saturday night with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Fair weather and seasonable temperatures are forecast for
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
At 7 PM...after coordination with surrounding offices, have
decided to cancel severe thunderstorm watch.

Previous...
Strongest storms are now over Dutchess and Litchfield Counties.
They appear to be sub-severe, but likely producing high
rainfall rates. A second line of storms has developed in clear
area over central New York and extends from near watertown to
Syracuse southwest towards Elmira. A couple of cells in this
line have lightning. This line of storms will likely reach
Herkimer County between 730 and 8 PM. HRRR shows the line of
storms reaching the Hudson Valley between 11PM and midnight and
then weakening.

Lingering showers and thunderstorms this evening will exit east
but since the primary cold front lags behind, there will be a
threat for clouds and isolated to scattered showers into the
late night tonight. Patchy fog also expected in areas that see
clearing and have moist ground from today`s rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
After some early morning fog and stratus burns off, Clearing is
progged by models to be over the Albany Forecast Area on
Saturday until late in the day or early evening when next cold
front approaches.

Trailing strong upper energy tracks through the region Saturday
night the boundary layer thermal gradient associated with the
low level cold front also tracks though. The upper jet is
fairly strong for this time of year also. Surface based
instability is expected to be limited but midlevel lapse rates
are forecasted to steepen considerably. West low level flow does
not suggest much convergence but the low level temperature and
dew point boundary could provide enough forcing to support some
isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity during
the evening and overnight. Lows Saturday in the 50s and 60s. Highs
Saturday in the 80s but mid to upper 70s higher terrain.

Dry weather returns Sunday but even with cooler boundary layer
temperatures west to northwest boundary layer flow and
considerable sunshine, highs Sunday should be in the 80s again
with mid 70s higher terrain. Sunday night is expected to be
mainly clear with lows in the 50s to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term portion of the forecast starts out with fair weather
and summer-like warmth, as a ridge of high pressure moves across the
region and off the mid Atlantic coast. Relatively high mid level
heights and subsidence should allow daytime highs to reach the mid
80s in valleys Monday, with upper 70s/lower 80s across higher
terrain, followed by 85-90 for valleys, and 80-85 across higher
elevations Tuesday. Last time Albany hit 90 was on June 13
(KGFL, June 12 and KPOU, July 21), and we have a shot to do it
again on Tuesday. An approaching cold front could spark some
showers/thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon, mainly across the
western Adirondacks. Overnight lows Monday night should mainly
be in the lower/mid 60s, except for some 50s across higher
terrain.

For Tuesday night-Wednesday, a cold front is expected to approach
from the northwest. The uncertainty at this time is how quickly
and how much the low strengthens. This also impacts frontal
timing across the region, with the general consensus of a late
night/early morning frontal passage. This would tend to decrease
the overall threat for severe weather on Wednesday. However, a
slower frontal passage for sometime later Wednesday would
increase this potential, as mid tropospheric winds would be
quite strong, combined with better instability for the afternoon
hours. For now, have sided with consensus with best chances for
showers/thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wed morning. It
should be warm/humid Tue night ahead of the front, with lows
mainly in the 60s, then highs Wednesday mainly in the 70s to
around 80 for valleys, and 60s to lower 70s across higher
terrain.

Wednesday night-Thursday, assuming the aforementioned cold front
does not slow down, high pressure is expected to build in from
southern Canada and the Great Lakes region with cooler and less
humid conditions. There could be a few showers across mainly higher
elevations of the southern Adirondacks/southern VT due to lingering
cold air aloft and some mid/upper level cyclonic flow. Expect lows
Wed night mainly in the 50s, with some 40s expected in sheltered
upland valleys; highs Thursday mainly in the 70s for lower
elevations, and 60s across higher terrain.

Cold advection continues on Friday with generally fair weather,
but cool, fall- like conditions expected. Lows in the 40s and
50s and highs in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will move across the region this evening into the
early morning hours. A secondary front and short wave trough will
sweep across the Saturday night leaving the local area between
the features for Saturday.

Convection is occurring just ahead of the cold front and will
move across the area this evening. Have addressed storms in TAFs
with TEMPO group for KGFL, KALB and KPSF. No more storms are
expected at KPOU.

The air mass across the area is very humid and will remain so
through the overnight. Clouds cover will break up after the
passage of the front. With light winds and wet ground across
much of the area expect fog and stratus to form overnight with
MVFR-IFR conditions. Conditions will improve Saturday morning
after sunrise as flow picks up and the atmosphere mixes with VFR
conditions by mid-morning. VFR conditions are then expected for
the TAF period.

Southerly winds will shift to the west with the passage of the
front then quickly diminish with light to calm winds overnight.
Westerly flow develops Saturday morning with gusty conditions
during the afternoon with gusts into the teens.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers and muggy conditions will continue into tonight
ahead of a cold front. Behind this front, most of Saturday
looks fair and breezy before a second cold front crosses the
area Saturday night with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Fair weather and seasonable temperatures are forecast for
Sunday.

RH values will be near 100 percent at night. RH values will be
50 to 65 percent Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

Winds will be south at 15 mph or less through tonight when winds
shift to west. Winds will be west at 15 mph or less Saturday,
and northwest at 15 MPH or less on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A frontal system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the
region through late tonight. Locally heavy downpours are
possible. Heavy downpours may lead to minor flooding of poor
drainage, urban and low lying areas. Main stem rivers may see
some minor rises, but no river flooding is expected with this
rainfall.

Total rainfall amounts through tonight will be variable
depending on exactly where showers/thunderstorms track. While
most areas should see at least a half inch of rain, its possible
that some point locations may see an inch or two of rain.

Other isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Saturday
night along a reinforcing cold front. Less humid air will start
to work its way into the region after the cold front tracks
through. Drier weather is expected Sunday into Monday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
While repairing the azimuthal gear box, radar technicians have
determined that the bull gear on KENX radar needs to be
replaced. This will require the radar to be out of service until
at least next Friday, August 25th.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...IAA/Thompson
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND
EQUIPMENT...



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