Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 230610
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
210 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in to the region tonight bringing
gradual clearing. Fair and mild weather is forecast for Sunday
and Monday. A coastal storm will bring a widespread rainfall on
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
High pressure continue to build in from the west at the surface
and aloft short wave trough is moving off to our east. In
response clouds have broken and dissipated across much of the
forecast area. This trend will continue through the overnight.
Winds will be light less 10 mph to calm overnight. All this will
allow temperatures to drop into the 30s; near to a bit below
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A return to sunshine Sunday with warmer temperatures as higher
pressure dominates at the surface and aloft the region is
between short wave troughs. Some high cirrus clouds are possible
Sunday morning south of Interstate 90 which will filter
the sun a little before moving east of our area. Winds will be
light as surface ridge shifts across the region. Looking at
afternoon highs above seasonable levels from the upper 50s to
upper 60s.

Sunday night, a strong cold front will approach from the north,
but should remain just north of our forecast area. There may be
some patchy mid and high clouds associated with the front
especially across the northern half of the forecast area. Lows
generally in the 30s to around 40.

Expecting another dry day Monday as ridging holds on across the
area. Clouds will be on the increase from the front to the north
and a coastal system to the south, especially in the afternoon
and at night. The chances for rain are expected into the
southern most portion of the area Monday night.

Highs Monday should be similar to Sunday. Highs generally in the
60s with some 50s high terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A persistent trough axis across the western 2/3rds of the CONUS
will dominate the weather pattern in the long term portion of
the forecast. The only exception will be the cut off upper low
across the southeast CONUS that rides up along the Atlantic
Seaboard through the mid week period. Global models are in fair
agreement synoptically but differ with respect to where the
deformation axis will eventually set up and QPF. Per previous
discussions, the best chance for a period of wet weather appears
to be Tuesday into Wednesday and the eastern 2/3rds of the
county warning area (CWA). There is expected to be a break in
the pattern late Wednesday into early or mid day Thursday before
the aforementioned upstream trough goes through an amplification
and brings a cold front across the region. Here is where the
global models and ensembles differ with respect to timing. The
GFS would favor the potential for thunderstorms (some strong) as
the timing would be during the peak heating of the day.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF and GGEM are slower with a FROPA overnight
Thursday into Friday morning. So we will extend the PoPs and
continue to mention the threat for thunder at this time.

Friday into Saturday, divergence in the models becomes
increasing more apparent as the GFS wants to develop a strong
baroclinic zone across Upstate NY into New England while the
ECMWF clears the region for a drier end of the week and start of
the weekend. The GGEM attempts to stall the frontal boundary
with waves of low pressure tracking northeastward. So a rather
low confidence forecast at this time for the end of the week and
weekend.

Temperatures will have the opportunity to rise above normal this
week as warm advection and H850 temperatures of +10C to +15C
Thursday could allow afternoon highs to soar higher than current
MOS and blended approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Still some patches of 3.5-5kft stratus around overnight.
Potential for brief drops to MVFR at KPSF, otherwise VFR
expected to continue overnight. Guidance does not suggest fog
will be an issue since we are still mainly pre-greenup but will
continue to monitor. Skies will be mostly clear during the
daylight hours with high pressure overhead.

Winds ranging from west to north at 8 kt or less early on,
becoming light and variable. Winds backing to southwest Sunday
afternoon at 8 kt or less.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will build in to the region tonight bringing
gradual clearing. Fair and mild weather is forecast for Sunday
and Monday. A coastal storm will bring a widespread rainfall on
Tuesday.

Maximum relative humidity values tonight will recover to 80 to
90 percent. Minimum relative humidity are expected be in the
30s Sunday afternoon, and then recover to 80-100 percent on
Sunday night.

Northerly winds at to 10 to 15 mph today and will diminish this
evening becoming light and variable to calm overnight. Winds
will be light on Sunday generally 6 mph or less during the day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Drier weather will develop across the area over the second half
of the weekend as higher pressure builds in, however chances
for rain will be on the increase as we head into the new work
week as coastal storm is expected to move up the east coast. A
widespread rainfall is expected across at least a portion of the
area mainly on Tuesday which now may linger into Wednesday.
There is much uncertainty to the QPF amounts at this time. A
brief break in the wet weather is expected before cold front
sweeps through bringing more chances for rain and possible
thunderstorms to the area.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...IAA/SND
SHORT TERM...SND/JVM
LONG TERM...BGM/Thompson
AVIATION...Thompson
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND/BGM



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