Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 030806
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
406 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 4 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WITH MAINLY 50S ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY...REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN MOST
VALLEYS...AND 70-75 ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT
MAY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST...

FRI NT...CLEAR AND COOL TO START...THEN INCREASING/THICKENING
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT PERHAPS 45-50 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SAT-SAT NT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND
LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD...BRINGING SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF
STEADY RAIN TO AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90...ESP FROM AROUND MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NEARLY
ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH QPF...AS IT IMPLIES A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE GFS LATELY HAS BEEN TOO WET WITH QPF...SO HAVE SIDED
CLOSER TO A LIGHTER NAM/ECMWF BLEND OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
STILL WOULD GIVE A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN TO AT
LEAST THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AGAIN
MAINLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS
POTENTIAL STEADIER RAINFALL...WITH LIKELY POPS INDICATED FROM
ABOUT I-90 SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS TO SEE
IF THIS STEADIER RAIN SHIELD TRENDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH...OR
ACTUALLY BACKS SOUTHWARD YET AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHERN IMPULSE MAY BE JUST QUICK ENOUGH FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESP CLOSER TO
I-90...AND POSSIBLY AROUND SUNSET EVEN TO THE SOUTH. SO...DESPITE
SOME POTENTIALLY WET WEATHER DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE THAT RAIN ENDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE
NORTHERN IMPULSE...ALTHOUGH STILL STRONG...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
LATER SAT NT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE BY THE LEAD ONE...AND THE
CURRENT TIMING WOULD ALSO BRING IT THROUGH AT NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...THEREFORE HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY THUNDER OR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FOR LATER SAT NT.

WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND SOME
RAIN...HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS...RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH
ONLY LOWER/MID 70S EXPECTED FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-90...AND 65-70 TO
THE SOUTH. AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE NORTHERN SHIELD OF STEADIER
RAIN...MAX TEMPS COULD BE ADJUSTED UP OR DOWN YET AGAIN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT...SHOULD THE STEADIER RAIN PERSIST LONGER AND
FURTHER NORTH...THAT SOME AREAS MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE LOWER/MID
60S ON SATURDAY. FOR SAT NT...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLEARING
DEVELOPS...AND IF SAT MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE...IT
MAY BE QUITE CHILLY AS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENSUES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S IN
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 40S...ESP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND INTO THE BERKSHIRES. AREAS OF FOG
COULD FORM LATE AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SECOND IMPULSE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION IN THE MORNING...WITH RISING MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS IN
ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MAY STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT LATER
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...SLIGHT CHC POPS
HAVE BEEN INDICATED IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY WARMER
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN VALLEYS AND 75-80 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAINLY CLEAR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MIN TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE A COASTAL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS LOW...SO WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR VSBYS
FOR NOW AT KGFL/KPSF FROM 08Z-11Z...WITH PATCHY FOG NEAR KALB DUE
TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMING ALONG THE MOHAWK RIVER.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CU AROUND FOR FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN OR
SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...LOW PRESSURE
PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN FOR AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
RAINFALL AMTS IN THIS REGION SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH...TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
FURTHER NORTH...RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.

RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL TODAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN MAY HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/IRL/KL
HYDROLOGY...IRL/KL



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