Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 111750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1250 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WITH MORE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES...BUT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

AS OF 1230 PM EST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION/PERSISTENCE
OCCURRING ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA...AND ALSO
WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A LAKE BAND ARE OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE CO AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

IN SOUTHERN HERKIMER CO...WHERE THE REMNANTS OF A LAKE
EFFECT BAND CONTINUE...AN ADDITIONAL 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE BAND REMAINS MOST PERSISTENT.
THIS SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST HERKIMER CO...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF
2-4 INCHES WILL ALSO BE COMMON FOR AREAS CLOSE TO OR JUST S OF
INTERSTATE 90...AS THE BAND SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

ALSO...UPSLOPE FLOW AND INFLUENCE FROM A SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS RATHER PERSISTENT ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN BENNINGTON
AND WESTERN WINDHAM COS.

ELSEWHERE...STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED COATINGS...TO LESS THAN
ONE INCH COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY AREAS WHERE THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
MOST FREQUENT.

IT WILL BE WINDY...WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 35-45 MPH RANGE AT
TIMES WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL GRADUALLY FALL FROM CURRENT
LEVELS...THROUGH THE LOWER TEENS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...THROUGH THE TEENS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND FROM THE
LOWER/MID 20S INTO THE TEENS IN MOST VALLEY AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD WEATHER
WITH IT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 5 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE ZERO
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TEEN TO MID 20S.

LATE FRIDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY PRODUCE 1 TO
3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT THE COLDEST
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. IN
ADDITION TO THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR THERE MAY BE WIND CHILL ISSUES
AS WELL WHICH WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW TO 15 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT LOWS TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER A BRUTALLY COLD MORNING... TEMPS WILL RISE ON SUNDAY TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS...ALONG WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.  IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY /ALTHOUGH NOT
AS WINDY AS SAT OR SAT NIGHT/...MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA...THE WIND SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUN NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS ZERO TO -10 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ZERO TO 4 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE QUICKLY MODERATING ON MONDAY...AS THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES AWAY AND HEIGHTS START TO BUILD. 850 HPA TEMPS
LOOK TO REBOUND BACK TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES C BY LATE MONDAY.
STILL...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
20S. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN TO START THE
DAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS STILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT/HIGH QPF EVENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.  MOST MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTING TO TURN UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH
WILL MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM STORM COMING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT/TYPE OF PRECIP THAT OUR AREA
RECEIVES.

THE LATEST 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
GEFS...HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST /AND COLDER/ WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM.  WHILE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SNOW ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN PRECIP
CHANGES...AND TO WHAT TYPE. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO STAY ALL/MOSTLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ESP INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOOK TO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO
IP/FZRA...AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY AS THE STORM
TRACKS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CHANGE OVER BACK TO SNOW AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE EXITING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE AT LEAST 0.50
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT...WITH OVER AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER FOR AREAS ALONG/NEAR THE STORM TRACK AS WELL. WITH
THIS EVENT STILL 5-6 DAYS AWAY...MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CHANGE WITH THE
DETAILS ON EVERY RUN...INCLUDING P-TYPE AND QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE
IS LITTLE GAINED BY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MODEL SPECIFICS JUST
YET.  HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
HWO STATEMENT...AS ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
THIS EVENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME ON TUESDAY...AND
KEEPS TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BKN CIGS IN VFR RANGE AND WIDELY
SCATTERED -SHSN. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT KALB/KPSF DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...HOWEVER KPSF IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE
OCCASIONAL -SHSN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY -SHSN SHOULD END THIS
EVENING...WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING AS A SMALL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.

WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30
KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TIDAL ISSUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES UP THE HUDSON RIVER. IT APPEARS POUGHKEEPSIE
WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL IMPACTS WHICH MAY PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ICE COVER ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COMPLETELY
BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/11
NEAR TERM...IRL/KL/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11


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