Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 291750
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
150 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will settle over the southern part of the
Albany Forecast area today. This front may trigger some isolated
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Mainly fair and seasonable
weather is forecast for Saturday before a storm system approaching
from the Ohio valley brings a threat of widespread showers and
thunderstorms on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Convective cloud cover forming and some isolated showers and
thunderstorms are developing from the western Mohawk Valley east
to southern VT. Adjusted the forecast through this afternoon based
on these radar trends, with continued isolated to scattered
activity building south and east along a diffuse dew point
boundary. Temperatures have risen to around or just above current
forecast. So, have raised temperatures a little and CAPEs will
locally build to 1000+ j/kg so will watch for one or two stronger
thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail. Highs well into the
80s to near 90 this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight into the first half of Saturday...Expect generally dry
conditions as a weak ridge of high pressure builds across the
region. Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

By Saturday afternoon there will be the chance of showers across
the eastern Catskills as a wave of low pressure starts to move
eastward from the Ohio Valley. Expect highs on Saturday to be in
the mid 70s to mid 80s with increasing clouds during the
afternoon. On Sunday the low pressure system will be moving across
Pennsylvania and pass south of Long Island Sunday night. This will
bringing more clouds, along with showers and thunderstorms back
into our region. At this time it looks as though much of Saturday
night and Sunday will be wet with some much needed rainfall across
the region. The showers may taper off Sunday night. Expect lows
Saturday night to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s with highs on
Sunday in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Lows Sunday night will be in
the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper level trough will continue some scattered showers and
thunderstorms to start the week...but high pressure will build in by
Tuesday with fair and dry weather through the mid week.

Mon-Mon night...Low pressure passes east of Long Island and Cape Cod
in the morning.  A positively tilted long wave trough will be over
the Northeast and Mid Atlantic Region.  The trough with a short-wave
moving through will focus scattered showers and isold-sct
thunderstorms.  Despite dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid
60s...heating will be limited...so only small amounts of instability
are expected.  Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 70s in
the valley areas...and upper 60s to lower 70s over the mtns.  The
trough axis will gradually shift downstream over New England with
the showers diminishing.  Lows will fall back into the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

Tue-Tue night...The upper level trough axis lingers near
central/eastern New England.  Another vort max moves through the
trough to focus some isolated showers...especially across the higher
terrain of western New England.  The showers should be tied to the
diurnal heating.  At the sfc...an anticyclone continues to build in
from the eastern Great Lakes over NY and New England.  Sunshine will
mix with clouds.  Highs will nudge closer to normal with upper 70s
to lower 80s in the major valleys...and lower to mid 70s over the
hills and mtns.  Decreasing clouds Tue night with light winds should
allow for decent radiational cooling...and lows once again in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

Wed-Thu...the medium range deterministic...ensembles...and WPC
guidance all indicate mid and upper level heights will start rising
by the mid-week over southeast Canada and the Northeast.  Temps will
start to rise above normal for early AUG.  Sfc high pressure moves
over NY and PA by WED...then drifts offshore by THU.  H850 temps
rise back to +15C to +18C by THU.  HighS will trend back into the
mid 80s to lower 90s by THU in the valleys...and over the
hilltowns...and upper 70s to lower 80s over the mtns. Humidity
levels will not be oppressive...but seasonable for the close of the
first week of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will predominate during the next 24 hours. Some
patchy MVFR/IFR mist may form after 04Z/SAT at KPSF/KGFL/KPOU...and
have been included the the TAFS with IFR most likely at KPSF/KGFL.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms have started to develop over
the terrain around the Hudson Valley. There is a low chance of one
of these storms affecting the TAF sites this afternoon and for
now have used VCSH to indicate timing of possible showers. KPSF
probably has the highest chance of a shower or storm today.

The winds will be northeast at 5-15 kts this afternoon. Expect
the winds to become light and variable early this evening. Winds
on Saturday will be 5-8kts from the north.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak frontal boundary will settle south of our region early
this morning. A low pressure system is then forecast to track
along the front from the mid Atlantic states northeastward to just
south of Cape Cod today. This system could bring some much needed
rainfall to parts of the region, especially south and east of
Albany.

Relative humidity values will drop to 50 to 70 percent this
afternoon, recover to 85 to 95 percent tonight, and drop to 40 to
65 percent on Saturday.

Winds will be north to northeast at less than 10 mph today through
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Much of the region is currently running 3 to 8 inches below normal
on annual rainfall. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, much of
the area is considered abnormally dry (category D0), and parts of
the Catskills and western New England are within a moderate drought
(category D1).

Rain fell across the southeast part of the forecast area last
night and early this morning. based on reports, most locations
received a quarter inch or less with some isolated reports around
three quarters of an inch. There were some scattered thunderstorms
over the southern adirondacks yesterday afternoon which produced
some local amounts around three quarters of an inch.

Dry weather returns for late Friday night through Saturday, with the
next chance of showers and thunderstorms arriving late Saturday
night into Sunday with the chances for showers and thunderstorms
lingering into early next week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...SND


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