Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 281812
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
212 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. IT WILL
WARMER AND MORE HUMID FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 138 PM EDT...A LITTLE MORE FAIR WX CUMULUS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN
THE VALLEYS...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS. SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS BASED ON THE
SATELLITE PICTURE. ALSO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES OVER
THE SRN GREENS...SRN DACKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN.

THE 12Z KALY SOUNDING DEPICTS A PRETTY GOOD LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE FROM H850-H800.  H850 TEMPS LOOK TO BE +11C TO +12C...WHICH
WITH PRETTY GOOD MIXING...WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW SPOTTY 80F READINGS NEAR
KPOU/ AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL YIELD COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE
SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM W-CNTRL PA WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.
TONIGHT LOOKS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AT MOST...ALLOWING FOR PRETTY GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE A LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT.

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND EVEN CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES...TO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S MOST OTHER PLACES. WE BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE
IN THE WAY OF PATCHY FOG...SO INCLUDED IT IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SATURDAY. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES. MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES 75-80 HIGHLANDS...80-85 IN THE VALLEYS. THE DEWPOINTS
WILL CREEP UP A LITTLE... BUT GENERALLY HOLD IN THE 50S SO ANOTHER
FAIRLY COMFORTABLE DAY WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND MOVES OFFSHORE. A WEAK WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION PROVIDING SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT AT THIS POINT UNLIKELY...SO NO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST.

WITH THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TONIGHT...
GENERALLY 55-60 EXCEPT 50-55 IN THE COOLER REMOTE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SURFACE TO ALOFT...ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

HAVE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST THIRD OF FA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ALTHOUGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE PERIOD WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MID 70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY...MID
70S TO AROUND 90 ON MONDAY...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S EACH NIGHT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING LATE IN THE
DAY/EARLY THIS EVENING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT
AND ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z/SATURDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AROUND 09Z/SATURDAY AT KGFL AND KPSF. FOG
WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
WITH HEATING PLUS CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN SATURDAY MORNING.

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME CALM
FOR THE OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS OUR REGION. A FULL
OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY SHOULD BE REALIZED EACH NIGHT WITH AT LEAST
SOME MORNING DEW.

THERE COULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IN THE SAME AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION.

OTHERWISE IT WILL START OUT SEASONABLE...BUT GETTING WARM TO HOT AS
HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY...IN THE 40S. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LOOKS TO CREEP UP HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE WIND WILL BE WEST OR SOUTHWEST TODAY 5-10 MPH...LIGHT OR CALM
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY 5-10 MPH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
FRAME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...VTK
LONG TERM...VTK
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/VTK
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/VTK



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