Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KALY 030535
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1235 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WINDS STILL SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND SHOULD TREND TO LIGHT/CALM BY
SUNRISE. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED OVER WESTERN AREAS AND
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS SO FEW
ADJUSTMENTS IF ANY NEEDED THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE OF AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 2-6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TRANSITION WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES FIRST AND NORTHWEST ZONES LAST. THIS
TRANSITION IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP
A DEGREE OR TWO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN RISE NIGHT...THEN RISE
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOWARD DAYBREAK.

STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID
40S IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A SFC FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL- ERN CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS/CMC GUIDANCE HAVE SOME LIGHT
OVER RUNNING PCPN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE GFS. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE JET
STREAM IN THE SW FLOW. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
/1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY/. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL
DOWN INTO THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE MTNS.
A FEW BELOW ZERO READINGS OVER THE SRN DACKS.

THU-FRI...A SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON
THU. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TO DIMINISH FOR THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT IN THE MORNING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -18C TO -22C ACCORDING TO
THE GFS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS ON THU WILL STILL
RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.  CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE OVER THE MTNS.  HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN IN THE FRIGID AIR MASS...IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS OVER THE MTNS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A RETURN FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED...AND MORE ZONAL...AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE ONTARIO. THE BEST
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY NW OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL REGION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS
WARM FRONT.  H850 TEMPS MODERATE BACK TO -7C TO -11C.  AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...EXPECT HIGHS
TO RISE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW...WITH MID AND
U30S IN THE MAINLY OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND U20S TO L30S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PCPN.  A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SAT...WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND S-
CNTRL CANADA TO OPEN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE WARM FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH IT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.  AGAIN...IT IS
DAY 7...AND IT IS OUT A WAYS...SO SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS ARE
INCLUDED.  THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT EXACT TRACK THIS CYCLONE WILL
TAKE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT.  TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW
NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES TO CLOSE THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
FROM VFR TO IFR. AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN...SNOW WILL CHANGE
TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED
IFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA TO -RA.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE TO HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SN KALB
NORTH...WITH LIKELY SN AT KPOU.
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.