Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 281452
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1052 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
After a warm and muggy afternoon, some isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the region this
evening ahead of an advancing cold front.  Any thunderstorm will
have the potential for locally gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Once
the cold front crosses the region tonight, dry weather with
seasonable temperatures will return for Monday into Tuesday, with
gradually lowering levels of humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1052 AM EDT...Visible satellite imagery shows sunny skies
over the majority of the CWA, with just some patchy low and mid
level clouds over the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley. Through the
afternoon hours, some clouds will increase, especially for areas
north/west of the Capital Region, as some cumulus starts to build.

It should be rain-free for much of the day and 850 hpa temps of
around 16-18 degrees C will allow for a warm day, with highs in
the mid 80s for valley areas (upper 70s to low 80s for the hills
and mountains). Dewpoints will continue to be rather muggy in the
60s as well, making it feels uncomfortable outdoors.

A surface cold front is currently located over the Great Lakes and
this system will be headed our way for the evening and into
tonight. Ahead of this boundary, the low and mid level flow will
be out of the sw, which will continue to advect moisture into the
region. Although PWAT values were only 1.35 inches on the 12z KALY
sounding, the increasingly moist flow will allow them to increase
over the area through the day. Upstream 12z soundings were
already 1.65 inches at KPBZ and 1.59 at KBUF, and 12z NAM model
soundings suggest PWAT values will reach 1.50 to 2.00 inches
across our area by late today. With a warm and moist environment
in place, instability will increase through the day, with around
500 to 1000 J/kg of CAPE by late today.

The 3km HRRR shows some isolated-scattered showers/t-storms
starting to form after 5 pm across northwestern areas, and
gradually spreading eastward through the evening. Forcing will be
limited to just the surface boundary, as the best upper level
dynamics are well north of the area over Canada, so this makes
sense why the coverage of storms will be limited, as not every
location will see a storm today. The best 0-6 km bulk shear will
be disjointed from the highest instability, but around 25-30 kts
may be present over our area by early this evening. This could
allow for a rogue storm to produce gusty winds (especially
considering any precip loading thanks to the high PWATs), so
cannot rule out a few severe weather reports by late today. High
FZL levels and limited instability should prevent much hail from
occurring, but locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible
with any storm. SPC has areas north/west of the Capital Region
under a marginal risk for severe storms and this continues to fit
based on observed and forecast sounding data.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
For Tonight...The cold front will continue to move south Sunday
night pushing through most of the forecast area by sunrise. There
will continue to be a chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight
ahead of the front with chances diminishing overnight. Lows
tonight will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

Monday and Monday night...Other than an early morning shower on
Monday expect a return to dry weather as another ridge of high
pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes on Monday and then
across the region on Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the
mid 70s to mid 80s with lows Monday night in the mid 50s to mid
60s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...Expect more mainly dry weather with
just a chance of a shower way up north late Tuesday night. Highs
on Tuesday will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s with lows Tuesday
night in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Wednesday and Wednesday night, a cold front associated with a
digging upper level trough will bring a threat of showers and
thunderstorms to the region. All models now agree that the cold
front will come through in two parts, not entirely pushing through
the area until around 12Z Thursday. Chance pops on Wednesday and
Wednesday night with highs mid 70s northwest to mid 80s in the mid
Hudson Valley and lows in the low 50s to low 60s.

For Thursday into Saturday...models again agree that a big dome of
high pressure will build in from the great Lakes and Eastern Canada.
This will result in a brisk northerly flow of much cooler air with
generally fair and dry weather. Slight chance POPs Thursday morning
for any residual showers from cold front. Expect highs in the 60s in
the hill towns to 70s in the valleys and lows in the 40s and 50s.

There is a low probability of some frost in the normally colder
locations on Saturday Morning.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions forecast for the next 24 hours.

Today...Radiation fog that has developed this morning should
dissipate by 13Z. Mid and high level clouds will gradually
increase ahead of a cold front approaching from the Great Lakes
region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop north and
west of the TAF sites this afternoon and slowly move southeast.
Forecast models show this activity weakening in the evening before
reaching the TAF sites. Best chance for lightning/thunder later
today looks to be at KGFL.

Tonight...some rain showers possible at the TAf sites as the cold
front continues to move southeast across the area. Late night and
early morning restrictions due to fog are again possible
especially for any TAf sites that see rain.

Winds today generally south to southwest at 5 to 15 kts. Tonight
southwest winds at 5 to 10kts are forecast.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry conditions will hold through much of this afternoon.
A cold front will cross the area tonight, bringing the threat of
showers and thunderstorms. Dry weather will take hold Monday and
Tuesday.

Relative humidity values will drop to 50 to 70 percent today,
recover to 90 to 100 percent tonight, and drop to 45 to 60 percent
on Monday.

Winds will be south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph today, west at 5
to 10 mph tonight, and northwest at 5 to 10 mph on Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Warm and dry conditions will hold through this afternoon. The
next chance of rain will be on late this afternoon and tonight
associated with a frontal boundary. Rainfall amounts will
generally be between a tenth and half an inch. No hydro problems
are anticipated.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...VTK/OKeefe/11


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