Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 121704
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1004 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...BANDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. FOG IS LINGERING IN THE LONG
VALLEY...THE UPPER WEISER RIVER BASIN...THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
NEAR AND WEST OF ONTARIO...OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NRN
MALHEUR COUNTY...AND IN THE VALLEYS OF BAKER COUNTY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY MID-AFTERNOON. SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS
HAVE BEEN MADE TO SKY AND FOG...AND TO LOWER TEMPS WHERE THE FOG
HAS PROVEN MOST PERSISTENT. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY
AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN FROM KONO-KEUL WILL IMPROVE FROM EAST TO WEST
TODAY...BUT DO EXPECT LOCAL IFR TO REMAIN WEST OF KONO. OTHERWISE
VFR UNDER CEILINGS OF 15-20K MSL ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO
TODAY. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS...EXCEPTION BEING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE KJER TERMINAL. WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE SW ABOVE
6K FEET MSL WITH SPEEDS TO 20 KTS THROUGH 10K FEET.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING IFR CONDITIONS
IN SNOW TO E-CENTRAL OREGON AND W-CENTRAL ID MTNS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. LOWER VALLEYS WILL REMAIN VFR
WHERE LOW-FOG AND STRATUS DOESN/T PERSIST. AREAS FROM KEUL-KONO-KBNO
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING PERIODS OF IFR IN
FOG/STRATUS IN THE MORNING HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT
10-25 KTS.

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...INVERSION SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE AFTER A FRONTAL
PASSAGE TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESIDE OVER SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
TO THE EAST. THE INVERSION WILL LAST ANOTHER DAY...ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER MORNING OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
VISIBILITIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO IMPROVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON PAR WITH THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S. A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN
AREAS...GENERALLY NORTH OF A BURNS-BOISE-FAIRFIELD LINE. PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING FROM AROUND 7000
FEET THIS EVENING TO AROUND 5000 FEET SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING ENOUGH WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO
REMOVE THE INVERSION. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE
WARMER IN THE VALLEYS /WHICH DOES HAPPEN ON OCCASION DURING THE
COLD SEASON FOLLOWING STRONG INVERSIONS/ AND COOLER IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE SHOWERS IN THE NORTH WILL DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CONTINUED MILD WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING
TO ABOVE 7000 FT BY SUNDAY EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
KEEP MOST OF OUR AREA DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE WESTERN
U.S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO BETWEEN
4000 AND 5000 FEET ACROSS SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO ON
THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON FRIDAY AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....DG
AIR STAGNATION...SP
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JT


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