Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 011526
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
926 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL BRING WARMER
AIR INTO SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH...EXCEPT IN THE TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS WHERE THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER SCATTERED MID LEVEL AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  ANY SMOKE LAYERS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
SMOKE WILL BE IN THE KMYL AREA.  LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS
MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.  WINDS
ALOFT SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH DESERTS OF
SOUTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR AND SW OWYHEE COUNTIES. THERE...WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS SW CANADA AND DRIVE A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH SE OREGON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO
STALL OVER SW IDAHO WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WITH UPPER LOW OFFSHORE
TO NW WA...FINALLY GETS OVER THE CASCADES TO NE OREGON/S BLUE
MOUNTAINS...BUT ONLY ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MTNS OF BAKER COUNTY AND THE PAYETTE
NATIONAL FOREST.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS AGREE ON
AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT DEEPENS OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
EXITING EAST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. MINS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY STARTING
SUNDAY AND RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. WE CAN EXPECT BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT



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