Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 181554
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
954 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE
FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
MAGIC VALLEY THIS MORNING. EXPECT RAPID CLEARING AND DRYING
TODAY AS THE DRY SLOT ON WATER VAPOR HAS ALREADY PUSHED EAST OF
BOISE. THUS HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE
MAGIC VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING KTWF/KJER THIS MORNING
WILL BE EXITING THE MAGIC VALLEY AROUND 18Z. FOLLOWING THE FRONT
EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 10-20 KT DIMINISHING AFTER
03Z. SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY TODAY UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEST UP TO 25
KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR. A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THEN DECREASE ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
HAVE MOVED TO SE IDAHO AS OF 3 AM. SHOWERS ARE SHIFTING EAST AS
WELL WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY AT 3 AM. NO
THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED SINCE MIDNIGHT OUR CWFA. DRY SLOT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WA AND W OREGON WILL OVER SPREAD SW IDAHO AND
SE OREGON LATER THIS MORNING AND SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE CHANGE THIS CYCLE IS THE MOISTURE WITH THE LOW TO
OUR SOUTH. MOISTURE REMAINS OVER NV THEN LIFTS NORTH TO THE ID-NV
BORDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE A SURFACE LOW ALSO FORMS. WARM
SW FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE 70S WHICH MAY
PROVIDED ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO COMBINE WITH THE MOISTURE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY OVER HIGHEST TERRAIN.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EAST ACROSS EASTERN OREGON/WESTERN IDAHO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAIN EFFECT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 7 DEGREES COOLER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEATHER
PATTERN WILL SHIFT ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...LEAVING OREGON/IDAHO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD IN THIS SET-UP...SUPPORTING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
EXPECT VALLEYS TO PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. TROUGH LOOKS TO EXIT
BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MODEL AGREEMENT WAVERS SIGNIFICANTLY BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....MT



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