Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 010315
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
915 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...WEAK CONVECTION...PROBABLY JUST VIRGA...HAS FORMED
AND/OR MOVED INTO NW HARNEY AND BAKER COUNTIES THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE CLOUDS ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. WE ARE
STILL LOOKING AT A HOT WEEKEND WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FOLLOWED
BY A NOTABLE COOL-DOWN ON MONDAY. NO CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL OREGON. VARIABLE
WINDS 10KT OR LESS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR. PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...NO LIGHTNING YET IN OR NEAR OUR CWA. THE NEAREST
LIGHTNING AS OF 2 PM MDT WAS STILL IN THE CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA NEAR
TRUCKEE CALIFORNIA.  MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE WAS STILL
FLOWING NORTH IN THE SIERRA THEN NE ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON.  MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THIS TRACK LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE.  SATURDAY NOW LOOKS WARMER
THAN SUNDAY AS CLOUDS MAY LIMIT HEATING SUNDAY.   THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE SUNDAY ALONG OUR SRN CWA BORDER AS
WELL AS IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND BLUE MOUNTAINS IN OREGON.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND DOWNWARD FROM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...TRIGGERED BY WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MODELS DIFFER ON
TIMING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
COAST. BUT THEY DO AGREE THAT DRIER MORE STABLE AIR FROM THE WEST
WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JT/JC


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