Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 201517

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
917 AM MDT Thu Oct 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...Warm-frontal clouds overspread most of our CWA during
the night, and were a little farther south than expected this
morning, but no pcpn has been reported.  Thicker clouds in the north
and light to moderate east/southeast winds in the south have
prevented fog from forming, but McCall, ID, was an exception with a
brief period of fog around midnight.  Warming trend today through
Friday under upper ridge, although temps will be held down by cloud
cover.  Slight chance of rain showers today and tonight along nrn
CWA border.  No updates.


.AVIATION...Mostly VFR. SCT-BKN mid to high level clouds
clearing from the south, north to a BNO-BOI-SNT line through the
day. Isolated mountain valley fog dissipating before 16Z. Isolated
MVFR and showers north of KBKE-KMYL line 18Z-06Z. Surface winds:
generally southerly 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts possible in the
Treasure Valley and near KBKE, diminishing around 21/00Z. Winds
aloft to 10KFT MSL: WSW 15-25 kts, becoming 25-35 kts by 21/00Z.


SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...The warm and dry trend
continues today as the area will remain under a weak ridge aloft.
This will keep moist westerly flow associated an upper level low
pressure system just to our north through Friday for mainly high
clouds. The higher terrain in Baker County stands the best chance
to see showers this afternoon and Friday afternoon though it`s
only a slight chance. The surface pressure gradient remains tight
across the forecast area which will keep breezy east-
southeasterly winds through Friday. The winds should aid in above
normal temperatures (mid 60s F in the valley) today and near 70 F
on Friday.

LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday...An upper low off the
Alaskan Coast Friday Night will carve out a major trough off the
Pacific Northwest Coast by Monday. A couple of ejecting short waves
brush by the northern portions of the forecast area during this
time, but any precip should be relatively minor, and temperatures
will be slightly above normal during this period.  Models are a bit
slower than earlier runs to bring the first part of this trough
inland, with the best chance for precip now appearing to be Tuesday
rather than Monday.  Beyond Tuesday models diverge a bit in their
solutions, but still likely unsettled with a trough off the West





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