Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 010954
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
354 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE
INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND
MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER HIGH BECOMING CENTERED JUST ACROSS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THIS PATTERN WILL CREATE
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WARMING AND DRYING WILL OCCUR IN THIS PATTERN WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE BOISE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
OVER THE BOISE AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. NOT
NEARLY AS BREEZY TODAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...FROM THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
THE CENTRAL U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SLOW DOWN
THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN SE
OREGON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO...BY MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL WRAP
INTO THE AREA AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT DIGS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THEN DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS/SLIGHT CHANCE OF VALLEY SHOWERS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AFTER
18Z...OTHERWISE VFR WITH SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SURFACE
WINDS...VARIABLE 10 KNOTS OR LESS BECOMING BECOMING EASTERLY 5-15
KNOTS BY 18Z. WINDS ALOFT...EAST 10-20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE BRUNEAU AND JARBIDGE RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH
IN OWYHEE COUNTY. ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWPACK EXISTS IN THE UPPER
BRUNEAU BASIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE JARBIDGE RIVER WATERSHED.
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WILL WEEK WILL ACCELERATE SNOWMELT AND
KEEP THE RIVERS RUNNING HIGH. RIVERS AND CREEKS IN THESE BASINS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THEY RESPOND TO THE INCREASED RUNOFF.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....BW
HYDROLOGY...TL



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