Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000
FXUS61 KBOX 032039
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
439 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY...AND THROUGH THIS LABOR
DAY WEEKEND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...YIELDING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
430 PM UPDATE...RADAR INDICATED THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOP NORTH/UPSTREAM OF OUR AREA...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND IN AN AREA WITH HIGHER SBCAPE/K-
INDEX VALUES. THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO OUR REGION TRACKING GENERALLY NW TO SE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS CONVECTION ACROSS A RELATIVELY THIN
RIBBON OF HIGHER K-INDEX VALUES...SO T-STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT
DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THE BROKEN LINE THAT IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE
THIS AFTERNOON/S CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIURNALLY DRIVEN...BUFKIT SHOWS
SOME LINGERING ELEVATED INSTABILITY INTO TONIGHT.  THUS EXPECTING
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECTING MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE SOME
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. ERN MA/RI WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE EARLY AM HOURS. SHOULD HAVE LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
LATE. MINS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60S HOWEVER MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF SPOTS IN THE FAR INTERIOR DIP INTO UPPER 50S NEAR
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...EXPECTING BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA.  SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY
IN THE MORNING.  HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT...WITH THE LOW 70S ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
EAST SLOPES BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS...AS WELL AS EAST COASTAL
MA THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/ONSHORE WINDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...TEMPS WILL DIP INTO
THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS PERIOD
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

03/12Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE FOR THE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL MEAN MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND AS THIS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WELL...MAXIMIZING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SLATED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

430 PM UPDATE...

THRU THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT
-SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALIZED LOWER CATEGORIES. WINDS
MAINLY FROM THE N/NE.

OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY
STRATUS AND FOG.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NE WINDS ALONG EASTERN MA AND RI.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LATE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS BECOME PREVAILING NE/E.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF EARLY MORNING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN FOG BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE SATURDAY. INCREASING WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY-TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...N-NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS REACHING NEAR
5 FEET FIRST ON THE E WATERS PROBABLY BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI...THEN
THE OUTER SRN WATERS BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THIS RISK.

LATE FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RECEDE BUT SOME SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MA LINGER AS SEAS TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DIMINISH.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SEAS ON SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FEET.  ELSEWHERE...WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER...OR NEAR...THE WATERS. MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES NEARSHORE...GIVING WAY TO A MORE
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB



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