Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 210630
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
130 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy yet unseasonably mild weather conditions will continue
for the North Country this weekend. A weak disturbance across
the eastern Great Lakes moving northeastward into prevailing
high pressure will bring just a chance of a few light rain
showers or drizzle to the North Country today into tonight. Next
week brings a more active period of weather Monday night into
Tuesday. A moisture laden system moving northeastward from the
Gulf coast states will bring a wintry mix to the North Country,
along with the potential for strong and gusty winds. After this
system shifts away through the Canadian Maritimes, temperatures
will remain unseasonably mild. May see some additional rain or
snow showers through the later half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 119 AM EST Saturday...Prevailing low-level cloud cover
trapped beneath a subsidence inversion remains over the North
Country. This will keep temperatures mild tonight, similar to
last night (lows mainly upr 20s to mid 30s, not falling much
from current readings). A weak impulse with some very light and
spotty precipitation will move in from the southwest during the
pre-dawn hrs. There is some concern with the potential for some
-fzra/-fzdz during the early morning hours on Sat for parts of
the St Lawrence Valley, the Adirondacks and the Southern Greens
as temps dip below freezing. That being said, warm air aloft
that moves in is also rather weak, coupled with low and sparse
QPF amounts across the area looks to have very minor impact
overall for the morning. FRAM model looked to be a bit over
done, so after scaling back, the `Dacks look to see only about
0.01"-0.02" with other locations seeing even less than that.

Moving through Saturday, temps look to warm and while the
slight chance for precipitation continues, most looks to be rain
in the valleys, snow in the higher elevations and a small
window again for freezing precipitation for the Eastern slope of
the Greens right at sunrise before temps warm there too and any
chance switches to rain. The airmass overall has little chance
and will see overnight temps in the upper 20`s to mid 30`s and
then see highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s for Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 338 PM EST Friday...Saturday night will see ridging
return for the second half of the weekend with rather quiet
conditions for Saturday night and into Sunday. An abundance of
low level moisture looks to again become trapped under a low
level inversion leading to cloudy conditions Saturday night
through Sunday. Late Sunday night will see the edge of next
system move in as snow begins to move into the area at the very
end of the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 338 PM EST Friday...Active period of weather is expected
Monday into Tuesday with upper trough lifting up across the
region during this time period. Thermal profile will be very
interesting with high pressure building down into the region
Monday morning and bringing colder air down into the lower
levels. However...throughout the day low level thickness values
will be a bit on the warm side. This may set the stage for some
mixed precipitation at the onset of this event with snow and
sleet before seeing a trend towards rain on Tuesday. Still some
timing issues with the onset of precipitation as it appears it
will be more in the Monday night into Tuesday time period. For
now have kept things snow or rain for now...but system will need
to be monitored for sleet or freezing rain potential.
Strengthening pressure gradient will also be taking place Monday
into Monday night from the east and southeast. This will create
some downsloping conditions to limit precipitation...but also
increase the potential for stronger winds due to the southeast
component allowing for some gap winds. Upper trough lifts
northeast of the area Tuesday night allowing for precipitation
to taper off. Flow aloft quickly becomes southwest on Wednesday
with general upper trough gradually sagging down into the
region. This will keep a chance of showers around for the
remainder of the week...but temperatures are still in the 30s so
looking at some rain or snow showers. Eventually some cooler
air moves in right at the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Stratus deck trapped beneath inversion
layer will maintain MVFR/IFR ceilings through the next 24hrs
with HIR TRRN OBSCD. IFR ceilings will generally be confined to
SLK thru 18Z, but then may see IFR developing at MSS this
afternoon, and possibly at the VT TAF locations Saturday night
with light SW winds advecting additional low-level moisture into
the area. A weak mid-level disturbance moving into prevailing
ridge will bring just an outside chance of a few light rain
showers or patchy drizzle. Don`t anticipate anything significant
in terms of precipitation.

Outlook 06Z Sunday through Wednesday...Extensive cloud cover
will persist through much of Sunday with a continuation of the
MVFR/IFR ceilings and VFR/MVFR visibilities owing to occasional
3-5SM BR. Widespread mixed wintry precipitation or rain will
eventually move into the region later Monday and especially
Tuesday for continued MVFR and IFR ceilings and in this case
MVFR and IFR visibilities as well. Watch for breezy southeast
downslope winds on Monday...especially at KRUT, with gusts in
excess of 25kts possible. Brief period of improving conditions
possible early Wednesday, before occasional RW/SW return mid-
late week.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MV
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...MV
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Banacos



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