Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 280549
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
149 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A band of showers with a rumble of thunder will move from west
to east across the North Country late tonight into early Friday
morning. Rainfall will be generally under a quarter of an inch
with any lingering showers moving east of our area by midday
Friday. Temperatures will remain mild for Friday into
Saturday...before another cold front produces more showers and
cooler temperatures Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
As of 149 AM EDT Friday...Line of showers moving across the
western St Lawrence Valley with some gusty winds continues to
progress northwestward. Expect brief period of moderate rain
showers and possibly an isolated rumble of thunder with this
line...reaching the Champlain Valley around 09z and over eastern
VT around 12z this morning, but diminish as it moves eastward.
Therefore have POPs decreasing quite a bit after reaching the
Green Mountains early this morning.

QPF will generally be between 1 and 2 tenths of an inch...maybe
a few higher values in convective elements over northern NY.
Still anticipating low level southeast winds to advect
additional low level moisture back into central/eastern vt
overnight with low clouds prevailing. These clouds will lift as
winds shift to the west/southwest on Friday. Temps mainly in the
upper 40s to near 60f overnight.

During the daylight hours Friday...mid level dry slot develops
along with weak ridge of high pressure under west/southwest flow
aloft. Progged 925mb to 850mb temps shows a sharp nw to se
gradient across our cwa with temps near 5 to 6c slv to 16c near
VSF...which support mid 60s west to near 80f vsf and lower parts
of the CPV. A few light lingering shower are possible across
eastern vt thru 15z...but most of the area will remain dry with
above normal temps prevailing. Good mixing and progged 850mb
winds between 35 and 40 knots...support some localized wind
gusts to 30 knots...especially in channeled flow over the slv.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 314 PM EDT Thursday...Fast moving flow aloft will exist over
the area through the period. Friday night starts off dry...but
then surge of moisture moves in during the first part of
Saturday and brings showers to the area before exiting to the
east late in the day. Saturday night will be dry once again.
Despite the precipitation on Saturday...much of the area will
see above normal temperatures...especially from the Champlain
Valley eastward. Highs on Saturday will be in the lower 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 314 PM EDT Thursday...High pressure will be over the area
Sunday morning with this feature moving east during the day. A
frontal boundary will move into the region late in the day and
increase the chances for some showers late in the day over
northern New York. The front will move toward the Canadian
border Sunday night into Monday with the best chances for
precipitation over the far northern portions of the area.
Eventually a cold front moves into the area Monday night into
Tuesday and showers will be more likely across the entire area.
This will be our best chance for higher precipitation amounts as
moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic should move up into the
region. Temperatures will be warm enough aloft to promote some
high elevation snowmelt and we should see some noticeable rises
on area waterways. Unsettled weather continues Tuesday through
Thursday as upper trough lingers over the Northeast. Warmest
temperatures should be on Monday with temperatures trending
toward more seasonal values for the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Band of showers...with isolated TS...on
KMSS doorstep with MVFR conditions and gusty winds expected.
This line will move eastward across the North Country this
morning. VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR conditions as
the line moves over terminals. Expect MVFR conditions and SHRA
at KMSS/KSLK mainly between 06Z-09Z...KPBG and KBTV mainly
between 08z-11z. KMPV and KRUT in lighter wind flow and
experiencing MVFR cigs already...which is expected to persist
into the late morning.

South to southwesterly winds will channel up the St Lawrence
and Champlain Valleys, continuing gusts up to 30kts possible
through at least sunrise. VFR conditions return to all terminals
during the morning as dry slot moves into the area. Winds
generally out of the SW will eventually decrease to 5-10kts in
the late afternoon into evening hours.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...KGM


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