Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 300838
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
438 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front will finally push across the area today bringing
additional showers for today and cooler temperatures for the next
few days. Dry conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday
with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s and lower
humidity levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 430 AM EDT Monday...A surface cold front will push across
our forecast area today. We will have some showers in our area,
mainly across southern and eastern vermont. Scattered showers with
a few embedded thunderstorms can be expected. Temperatures will be
more mild than yesterday, therefore instability will be limited.
There should be enough unstable air to have a few isolated
thunderstorms though not mentioning enhanced wording at this time.
Best threat will be central into South central Vermont. Maximum
temperatures today will be in the lower to mid 80s. Drier air will
move into the region overnight behind departing cold front. Min
temperatures will be in the mid 50s to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Monday...Quiet, seasonably mild weather is then
expected for the Tuesday through Thursday time frame with surface
high pressure being the dominant weather feature. Other than a
passing sprinkle or light shower across the northern Green
Mountains on Tuesday with a passing upper shortwave trough, dry
weather is expected through the period. Daily high temperatures
will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s with overnight lows
generally in the 45 to 55 range with some variability.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Monday...By later in the week there is
increasing confidence that we`ll return to an on and off showery
regime as a series of shortwave troughs/fronts push into the
region. There is broad agreement among this morning`s models that
a weakening frontal zone will limp into the region by Thursday
night into Friday before washing out is it presses east by next
Saturday. Given the current consensus will maintain forecast
continuity offering chance pops for showers during this period
with little airmass change expected.

Thereafter confidence lowers in regard to potential development
of a larger-scale longwave trough or closed upper system to our
northwest and its eventual eastward movement/potential impacts.
Teleconnections and latest ensemble output does suggest
amplification of western conus ridging which would tend to foster
lowering heights/troughing from the upper Midwest/Great Lakes
eastward from Sunday onward into next week. However, deterministic
output remains at odds on how deep this feature will be, the
degree to which it digs south and east over time and what
interaction, if any it has with deeper moisture across the mid-
Atlantic/southeast. Given at least the broader consensus in this
overall troughing scenario will bring solid chance pops for
showers and possibly a few storms by later Sunday onward into next
Monday. Temperatures should remain within a few degrees of
seasonable levels with daily highs in the 70s and overnight lows
mainly in the 45 to 55 range.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 06z Tuesday...concerned with areas of BR possible with
locally dense fog at SLK due to today`s rainfall. May see 4-6sm BR
at the remaining TAF locations during the pre-dawn period.
Generally VFR for the daylight hours on today. May see some
additional showers/isolated thunderstorms with peak afternoon
heating...with best chance of thunderstorms development across
central and s-central VT. Surface winds becoming generally S-SW
10-15kts late morning through the afternoon hours on Monday.

Outlook 06z Tuesday through Friday...Primarily VFR TUE-THU with
just a chance of late night fog each night at SLK/MPV mainly
07-11Z. Next frontal system and attendant upper level trough
approaching from the Great Lakes region will bring a chance for
showers Thursday night into Friday with brief intervals of MVFR to
IFR possible associated with rainfall.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Neiles


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