Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 140931
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
431 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS
ARE EXPECTED. COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHTER. A WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A
STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A
MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA
LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND BE
LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 7PM.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR AREA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
NEGATIVE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. WITH WEAKER WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
NOT HAVE WIND CHILL HEADLINES ANY LONGER. HAVE SEEN SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AT BTV DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE. THESE
VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THOUGH
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOMING CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EST SUNDAY...A CLEAR AND COLD START TO THE DAY ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS TO BEGIN THE DAY. BUT AS THE HIGH SLIDES
OFF THE EAST COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF AIR WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REBOUND
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
RESULT IN AN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER IN THE DAY DUE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEEING THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT AND RACES NORTHEAST WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ALONG AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THERE IS STILL SOME INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS
ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SURFACE LOW...BUT THEY ARE ALL
INDICATING THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOME PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE RESULT
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...WITH AN ASSORTMENT OF PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPECTED.
REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...PTYPE MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY
SNOW. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL JET
WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH WARMING FOR A CHANGE TO MOSTLY RAIN...WITH
A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS THE SNOW CHANGES TO MOSTLY
RAIN. QPF MAY REACH 1 TO PERHAPS EVEN 2 INCHES...SO THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP.
THE MORE QPF THAT FALLS HOWEVER...THE MORE LIKELY IT FALLS AS
RAIN. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES SUGGEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 6
INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER...WITH SOME LIGHT ICING AS WELL. ICING
PROBLEMS MAY CONTINUE EVEN AFTER TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING...DUE THE PRESENT ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE AND COLD GROUND
TEMPS. MAX TEMPS BY LATER TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN OR MIXED PCPN TAPERING OFF...THEN
TRENDING TOWARDS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THERE IS THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER
REGION AND DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S...SO THERE MAY BE A LITTLE SNOW/RAIN MIX IN THE
VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER
FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND
20S. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY...WHILE A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES IN FAST FLOW ALOFT APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SNOW
OR RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TEMPS REBOUND TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON
FRIDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...A MIX OF VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME
LOWER CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. GENERALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA WILL ERODE, THOUGH AT BTV EXPECT CEILINGS TO
HOVER BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE COLD
AIRMASS OVER THE MILDER WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. CEILINGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AT BTV. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AROUND 8-11 KTS AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FEBRUARY 13TH FOR OUR CLIMATE
SITES...
BTV -25 1967
MPV -29 1967
MSS -33 1967
SJBV1 -30 1967
MMNV1 -32 1967

COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -2 1979
MPV -4 1979
MSS -3 1987
SJBV1 +2 1987
MMNV1 -19 1979

COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -19 1987
MPV -19 2003
MSS -29 2003
SJBV1 -28 2003
MMNV1 -30 1979

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-
     034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES
CLIMATE...LOCONTO


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