Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 282028
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
428 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers will decrease in coverage and intensity by early
this evening. Dry conditions overnight will be short lived as a
warm front approaches from the southwest bringing rain chances
back to the forecast thursday. A wet pattern will continue into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...The few showers scattered through
the region will diminish by around sunset this evening with
decreasing cloud cover. This decrease in cloud cover will be
very short lived as clouds rapidly increase toward morning from
the west as strong overrunning develops. Rain chances start to
increase around daybreak from west to east.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...Challenging forecast for the
Thursday/Friday timeframe. Overall changes are minimal during
this period. Models in good agreement as to the overall pattern
with some differences in timing and QPF.

Thursday, overrunning showers will be the main story with
limited instability. Deep layer moisture returning with the
solid warm advection will lead to increasing precipitation
efficiency with activity during the day and into Thursday
evening. Have introduced some heavy rainfall wording for the
afternoon and evening hours Thursday.

By Friday morning the front will be near the international border
lifting northward leaving the area solidly in the warm sector
with PWAT numbers in excess of 1.50". Some instability will be
available Friday but deep layer shear is meager so organized
convection not expected at this point, but the heavy rainfall
threat continues. Periods of showers and storms continue with a
relative minimum Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 427 PM EDT Wednesday...A wet weekend remains in store for
the North Country as a slow moving cold front will bring highly
anomalous precipitable water with the system. There will be
plenty of instability across the region and should be the focus
of showers and thunderstorms. With the high pwats and the idea
of 1-2" of rainfall anticipated I went ahead and added enhanced
wording to the forecast to mention locally heavy rainfall
possible.

The guidance is a bit spread with where and when the showers
move in as the GFS shows some shortwave ridging which would keep
us dry in the morning Saturday however the NAM/EC both bring in
storms earlier. Either way the idea of locally heavy rain with
some some scattered thunderstorms looks increasingly likely. The
biggest problem with this is that the antecedent conditions
have been wet. Current stream flow analysis shows all of the
central and northern basins above normal with the Winooski basin
well above normal. At some point there`s likely to be a break
point in which we see flash flooding with the waves of rain
anticipated through Sunday. I dont have the confidence in saying
where or when at the moment so we held off on any idea of a
Flash Flood watch, but confidence is increasing that we`ll be
watching hydro issues this weekend.

Behind the front, quieter conditions are forecast for Monday
and the July 4th holiday as high pressure returns to the region.
Seasonal temperatures in the 70s/80s are likely, as well as
more comfortable humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Overall VFR conditions through the
period. This afternoon we are seeing very spotty shower activity
and the precipitation is light and having minimal restriction
to visibility so have opted to keep TAFs VFR, although a brief
period of MVFR isn`t out of the question. Showers should come to
an end by 00Z. After a quiet overnight period, the next round
of showers will move into the western stations after 12Z
bringing borderline periods of VFR/MVFR conditions and extending
to the northern Champlain Valley after 15Z.

Winds will be WNW at 05-10 knots with some occasional gusts up
to 20 knots through 00Z before going light out of the south for
the remainder of the period.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Occasional RA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR/MVFR. Occasional SHRA...Occasional TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Very wet period expected the next several days. Streamflow
values are above or much above normal as of this afternoon.
There is little if any storage and much that falls in the next
day or two will go straight to runoff. Additional average
rainfall amounts of 1.5-2.5" are expected through Saturday.
Right now feel that any potential flooding Thursday/Friday will
be limited in areal coverage, potentially setting the stage for
flooding Saturday by leaving saturated antecedent soil
conditions. Stay tuned...

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Manning
NEAR TERM...Manning
SHORT TERM...Manning
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Verasamy
HYDROLOGY...Manning



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