Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 290805
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL THEN
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE! HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO PLAY A BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS
DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTH COUNTRY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS GENERALLY
5-10 KTS. SLIGHT WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE BULK OF ENERGY AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, THUS
KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY MOSTLY DRY. BUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS INTO THE ATLANTIC, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY. BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT
WITH TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
JUST WASHES OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ATTEMPT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE, PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND. SATURDAY NIGHT, TEMPS WILL BE MILDER WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES REACH
12-14C. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAT THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THUS...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SUMMER- LIKE WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT BURLINGTON (BTV) THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 77 DEGREES.
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HINT AT SOME CONVECTION ON THURSDAY...AS A
WEAK BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES WEST FROM MAINE. HAVE OPTED TO
STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20 PERCENT) ON THURSDAY. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHIC OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ECMWF HINTS AT SOME MORE CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY...BUT GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A DRY FORECAST...SO HAVE OPTED
TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST AS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING
INDICATED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z
SATURDAY. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 06Z SUN-00Z MON...MAINLY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA. 00Z MON-00Z THU...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG
LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. CHANCE BR/FOG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LAHIFF



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