Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 050004
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
804 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
THIS EVENING, THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT MODERATING
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER
50S TO MID 60S EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 804 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AT THIS
TIME. BASED ON CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE AND 18Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAVE OPTED TO RAISE MIN
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT...AS CLOUD COVER WILL HELP
TO PREVENT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE DROP OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 243 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO MOVE UP THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES EAST. THE LATEST IR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE VORT THAT IS SLIDING UP THE EASTERN EXTENT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, AND THERE IS SOME DECENT INSTABILITY WITH
THE CU FIELD THAT IS MOVING UP THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THERE IS
SOME LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THAT VORTICITY MAXIMA AND GUIDANCE
STILL POINTS TOWARDS SOME OF THIS INSTABILITY MAKING ITS WAY INTO
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SO THUNDER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR
NEW YORK HOWEVER NOT FOR VERMONT.

INTO THE EVENING, MOISTURE REMAINS PREVALENT HOWEVER THE ENERGY
SOURCE FOR PRECIP DROPS OFF AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH.
GUIDANCE CAPTURES THIS FAIRLY WELL AND WITH THE TREND SHOWING UP
IN THE HIRES GUIDANCE I DID GO AHEAD AND RELAX THE POPS OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST FORECAST HAS NO MENTION OF SHOWERS IN NEW YORK
LATE OVERNIGHT AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN
VERMONT. TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND DRAGS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECT CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 8-12TS.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL STAY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND THE OVERCAST SKIES. EXPECT MID
40S ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMS FOR EARLY MAY. TOMORROW EXPECT FAIRLY SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
CONDITIONS TO TODAY WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE +8C TO +11C RANGE.
THAT PUTS THE FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SITUATED TO
OUR SOUTH...OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP BEST
DYNAMIC FORCING SOUTH OF THE REGION AS WELL AND THIS SHOULD KEEP
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND CANNOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN VERMONT. HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THESE
AREAS BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY A COUPLE TENTHS
OF AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LOTS OF
CLOUDS IN PLACE AND MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY THAT LOW WILL FINALLY
GET CAUGHT IN THE FLOW AND PUSHED EASTWARD. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM OUR WEST...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THE GFS...BUT FEEL THAT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW-NE ACROSS
NY AND THROUGH NRN VT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LIGHT RAINFALL
THROUGH 03-04Z THIS EVENING...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT
BTV/PBG/MSS/RUT...AND GENERALLY MVFR AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION SITES
SLK/MPV. WILL ALSO SEE HIR TRRN OBSCD THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. SECONDARY LOW FORMING EAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA WILL GENERALLY REFOCUS MUCH OF THE RAINFALL TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH A RETURN
TO MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING N-NE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS THURSDAY (5-10KTS...LOCALLY 12G18KTS AT MSS AFT 14Z THURSDAY).

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
00Z FRIDAY - 12Z FRI: MAINLY MVFR CIGS.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS.

00Z SUN - 00Z MON: MVFR SHOWERS LIKELY. CHANCE IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...WGH/DEAL
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...BANACOS/DEAL



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