Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 241937
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
337 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL START WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...BUT BELOW NORMAL
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WL SHIFT INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH CLRING SKIES
AND LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS DEVELOPING. RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW
SOME ENHANCED RH AROUND 800MB...BUT THINKING ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH UPSLOPE FLW AND THIS MOISTURE WL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.
GUIDANCE IS VERY COLD WITH SLK MAV/MET SHOWING READINGS OF
17/18...AND AROUND 29F FOR BTV. WL TREND A COUPLE DEGREES
HIGHER...BUT GIVEN VERY LOW SFC DWPTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THINKING
VALUES WL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 10S COLDER MTN VALLEYS/NEK TO M/U
20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS WL QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z SATURDAY...AS PROGRESSIVE
WESTERLY FLW ALOFT CONTS ACRS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED
STATES. DEEP DRY LAYER AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR TRENDS WL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT MID/UPPER LVL RH INCREASES AFT 18Z FROM SW TO NE.
BEST 850 TO 700MB OMEGA FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO
500MB RH >80% ARRIVES AFT 00Z SAT...SO WL KEEP FRIDAY DRY ATTM.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE FROM 0C NEK TO 4C SOUTHWEST
SLV...RESULTING IN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE L/M 50S NEK/MTNS TO L60S
SLV AND WARMER/UHI AREAS OF THE CPV.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...850 TO 500MB RH QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE
FA WITH MODEST UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
MID/UPPER LVL TROF. STILL FEEL INITIAL 5H VORT AND MOISTURE WL
DISSIPATE ACRS OUR CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP
FALLING AS MOSTLY VIRGA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN VERY DRY LVLLS. BETTER
DYNAMICS AND DEEPER RH ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION BTWN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY...WITH A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ANTICIPATED. HAVE NOTED POCKETS OF COOLER PROGGED 85H TEMPS <0C
ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT/NEK ON SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME WET SNOW IN THE MTN SUMMITS. COLD POOL ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SYSTEM MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY...WITH COOLING PROFILES ALOFT ANTICIPATED. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LIMITED SFC HEATING WL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY
FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. BOTTOM LINE SAT WL BE COOL
AND DAMP WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY. TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.10 AND 0.50 OF AN INCH.
TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S/M40S NEK/MTNS TO M40S/L50S VALLEYS ON
SAT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION CONTS TO DEEPEN AS
SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S INTERACT WITH THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SYSTEM. THIS WL SLOW OVERALL MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM DOWN WITH IT
BECOMING STATIONARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY SAT NIGHT...AND
NUMEROUS RIBBONS OF MOISTURE ROTATING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA.
THIS COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW WL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. GIVEN THE DEEPENING COLD POOL ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED COOLING OF LLVL THERMAL PROFILES...THINKING SNOW LEVELS
WL DROP TO AROUND 2000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT. TEMPS WITH CLOUDS/WIND AND PRECIP WL HOLD MAINLY IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40F...FAIRLY UNIFORMED ACRS OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK LATE THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LOW LOW WHICH
WILL HAVE BROUGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY
YET COOL AND BRISK END TO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...OMEGA BLOCK SETUPS UP
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD AND SOME
SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE. AT THIS
TIME...THE FORECAST DOES LOOK GENERALLY DRY FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ALL THE ABOVE SAID
FEATURES...THINGS COULD CHANGE. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
BASED ON RIDGE/LOW PLACEMENTS...BUT IN GENERAL LOOK TO RUN AT OR
BELOW NORMAL. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THURSDAY...SIGNS ARE THAT THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND ROCKIES LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES RENEWING CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING SCT-
BKN VFR DECK OVER NE VT WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT TO SKC AND GUSTY
NW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ABATE. EXPECT A PERIOD OF SKC ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION 00-06Z...THEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT 10-15KFT MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

18Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR WITH CIGS SLOWLY LOWERING TO NEAR 5KFT.

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW PASSAGE.

00Z MON THRU 00Z TUE...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR AS UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION.

00Z TUE THRU 00Z WED...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 930 AM EDT THURSDAY...RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM
THIS EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT AND EASTERN ESSEX
COUNTY NY.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW
1500 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN VT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENT DRY
SPELL...EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW MIN RH VALUES.

MOST THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VERMONT HAVE SEEN LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST FIVE DAYS...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE FINE FUELS PER LOCAL FOREST CONTACTS
BELOW 1500 FEET...WHERE GREEN UP HAS NOT OCCURRED.
MEANWHILE...ABOVE 1500 FEET MOST OF THE FINE FUELS AND LEAF
LITTER IS COMPRESSED FROM RECENT SNOW PACK OR STILL WET. MOST OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS AND NORTHERN NY HAVE RECEIVED MEASURABLE
PRECIP OVER THE PAST 2 TO 5 DAYS OR SNOW PACK IS STILL ON THE
GROUND ABOVE 2000 FEET...RESULTING IN LIMITED THREAT.

BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN...PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THIS AFTN.

IN ADDITION...MIN AFTN RH VALUES WL DROP BTWN 20% AND 30% ACRS
NRN NY...THE CPV AND SOUTHERN VT.

THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE OVERALL DRYING OF
GRASSES...TWIGS...AND DEBRIS SUCH AS DEAD LEAVES FROM LAST FALL
WILL ALLOW ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR TO SPREAD QUICKLY...BURN
INTENSELY...AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
ANY OUTDOOR BURNING YOU MAY BE ATTEMPTING TODAY. MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS...DO NOT LEAVE YOUR BRUSH OR DEBRIS PILE
UNATTENDED...AND HEED ANY ADVICE FROM YOUR LOCAL FIRE WARDEN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ009>012.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...TABER/KGM







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