Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 200121

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
821 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

A weak warm front will lift northeast across our region tonight into
Saturday with warmer temperatures and breezy southwest winds.
Localized wind gusts to 30 mph are expected over the Saint Lawrence
and Champlain Valleys with temperatures warming into the mid 20s to
lower 30s overnight. This front will push back south on Saturday as
a cold front with additional clouds and cooler temperatures. A few
mountains snow showers with a light accumulation is possible. The
next chance for a wintry mix will be late Monday into Tuesday.


As of 804 PM EST Friday...No real changes to the forecast as
temps/dew points are in good shape and clouds are starting to
scatter out as forecasted over northern New York. However the
shortwave over the Great Lakes should bring a return of mostly
cloudy skies during the rest of the overnight hours.

Previous discussion...Forecast challenge tonight will be
temps/clouds and developing gusty winds. Water vapor shows mid
level moisture streaming from the northern Great Lakes into the
ne conus with weak embedded 5h vort in the flow aloft. Surface
analysis places weak ridge over mid atlantic states with
developing brisk southwest flow across the central/eastern Great
Lakes. Expecting a weak surface warm front to lift across our
cwa tonight...along with a ribbon of 925mb to 850mb winds of 45
to 60 knots. Soundings show limited mixing potential at
night...along with shallow thinking best chance
of seeing localized gusts to 30 to 35 mph will be slv/cpv and
parts of the dacks. The better mixing should help to increase
cig levels with some clearing skies likely by Saturday
morning...upstream vis satl pics support this thinking. Temps
with clouds/winds will remain steady this evening...before
slowly rising overnight...but upstream obs are only in the upper
20s to mid 30s. So warm up will be slow.

Saturday...warm front stalls near the international border...before
dropping back south as a cold front during the late morning hours.
GFS/NAM show a very tight and complex 925mb to 850mb thermal
profiles across our cwa...making for a challenging temp forecast. In
addition...soundings show plenty of low level moisture developing
especially over northern NY and parts of northern VT btwn 18z-21z
Sat. This increasing moisture/clouds...along with low level caa and
limited mixing makes for a tricky temp forecast. Have noted both the
met/mav are in mid 40s here at btv...but thinking this is too have trimmed back temps. Highs mainly in the mid 30s to
lower 40s...however if we get more sun than anticipated expect mid
40s cpv. A few light mountain snow showers possible over the dacks
into northern vt mountains...but deep layer lift and moisture is
minimal...any accumulation will be light. A mild night is
anticipated on Saturday night with temps in the 20s and light
west/northwest winds. A few lingering mountains snow showers are
possible with plenty of clouds prevailing.


As of 245 PM EST Friday...Sunday and Sunday night will remain
relatively quiet, with temperatures continuing warmer than
seasonal normals and a chance for some light snow showers along
the international border with a shortwave crossing the region as
well as a weak cold front. Maximum temperatures on Sunday will
be in the upper 20s to mid 30s, and minimum temperatures Sunday
night will drop back into the teens and lower 20s.


As of 243 PM EST Friday...Monday through Tuesday night will be
mild and feature a large scale system impacting the North
Country. We`ll likely see all precipitation types with this
system as warm air advection out ahead of the system sets us up
with temperatures warm enough for some rain. Monday will be warm
with rain showers moving into the area during the afternoon.
Temperatures will reach the lower to mid 30s, warmest in the
Saint Lawrence valley on Southwesterly flow. Large vertically
stacked low pressure system lifts from the central plains Monday
morning Northeastward and will be centered over the Southern
Great Lakes by Tuesday morning. The GFS continues to be a bit
faster with this system than the ECMWF, but models are in decent
agreement for this far out. Warm air advection Monday and Monday
night, will be followed by a strong cold front Tuesday afternoon
or evening. Still looks like cold air at the surface will be
tough to scour out, so we will likely see mixed precipitation
areawide. Mix of rain snow sleet and freezing rain from Monday
afternoon right through Tuesday morning, then temperatures will
be warm enough to change precipitation to all rain on Tuesday
before a change back to snow showers Tuesday night as the
precipitation ends. Overall, not the same amount of warm air
ahead of this system, nor rainfall expected with this system so
not as impactful. Still a system to watch and details will
become more clear as we get closer to Monday and Tuesday. Still
several ice jams in place, see PNS, so we of course will
continue to monitor. Weather will then be quiet with mainly high
pressure overhead for Wednesday and Thursday.


Through 00Z Sunday...Generally expect VFR conditions through the
overnight hours as skies briefly scatter out. Ceilings return as
by 3-6z along with some scattered flurries. No expecting the
flurries to accumulate or have any impact on flight condition.
Low level jet of 45 to 60 knots develops overnight into early
Saturday morning...with localized gusts btwn 25 and 30 knots
likely at slk/mss and btv. Elsewhere...low level wind shear with
areas of moderate turbulence can be anticipated overnight into
Saturday morning. Mainly VFR conditions Saturday will trend
toward MVFR and eventually IFR cigs by 00z Sunday.


Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN, Chance
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
Wintry Mix.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA,
Definite FZRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Chance SHSN, Chance
FZRA, Chance PL.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.




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LONG TERM...Neiles
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