580
FXUS61 KCLE 160555
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
155 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will depart to the east tonight with a warm front
lifting into the region late tonight into early Wednesday. A
cold front will slowly approach from the west late Wednesday
before crossing the region Thursday. The front will slow over
the Ohio Valley Friday, allowing high pressure to build into
northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Surface high pressure over the area this afternoon will drift
east tonight, allowing a warm front and shortwave trough to lift
northeast into the region late tonight into early Wednesday.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms may lift northeast into the area
as early as 2 AM to 8 AM Wednesday morning with PoPs increasing
further near the I-75 corridor from 8 AM onwards. The most
widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur during peak
diurnal instability Wednesday afternoon/evening; all locations
have at least likely PoPs (around 60 to 70 percent) with
categorical PoPs (80+ percent) generally inland from Lake Erie.

As mentioned in previous discussions, a very moist airmass will
be in place across the area with widespread PWAT values of 2-2.1
inches and dew points in the lower 70s anticipated. To provide
context, these PWAT values are near to slightly higher than
daily maximum values for ILN/PBZ sounding climatology. Storms
will likely be progressive, although the high moisture content
will likely result in very heavy rainfall rates and localized
high QPF values. HREF still highlights an area with about a 10%
chance of at least 3 inches of rain in 3 hours across portions
of north-central/northeastern Ohio and northwestern
Pennsylvania Wednesday afternoon and this will be the primary
area to monitor for flash flooding. Low-lying, poor drainage,
and urban areas (such as Cleveland, Akron, Canton, and
Youngstown) will be the most vulnerable areas for flooding. A
Slight Risk for excessive rainfall remains in place from roughly
Vermilion, OH to Mount Gilead, OH eastward with a Marginal Risk
elsewhere.

Bulk shear values will be modest at around 15 to 20 knots,
however MLCAPE values will most likely reach or exceed 1500 J/kg
during peak heating Wednesday. The higher instability in
addition to high moisture content could allow a few stronger
wind gusts to mix to the surface in any robust storms that
manage to develop Wednesday afternoon. A Day 2 Marginal Risk of
severe weather is in place for the entire CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The shortwave will generally exit to the east on Wednesday
night, however scattered showers and thunderstorms (and
possibly heavy rainfall) may persist across NE OH/NW PA into
Wednesday night. An upper trough and surface cold front will
likely cross the local area Thursday with additional showers and
thunderstorms developing ahead of the cold front during the day.
Have largely maintained the previous forecast, but there`s still
quite a bit of uncertainty in the placement/coverage and overall
chances of showers/storms. Changes to the forecast for Thursday
afternoon/evening are possible, especially if guidance
continues to trend drier and/or the main precip axis continues
to shift southeast of the CWA. Strong thunderstorms and flooding
are possible along/ahead of the frontal boundary.

The front will slow over the Ohio Valley late Thursday into
Friday and high pressure will build into the region Friday
morning through Friday night. Most locations should experience
dry weather during this time, although a few showers/storms may
graze locations south of U.S. Route 30 Friday afternoon.

High temps will be in the 80s Thursday with a notable cooldown
expected towards the end of the week. Friday`s highs will be in
the mid to upper 70s with overnight lows in the cooler upper
50s to lower 60s Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unsettled weather will return over the weekend as a warm front
lifts into the region in response to low pressure moving east
across the central Plains into the northern Great Lakes.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely in the warm
sector Saturday/Sunday with PoPs tapering off as the low`s cold
front crosses the local area at some point Sunday or early
Monday. A quieter weather pattern may unfold early next week,
but uncertainty in the timing and placement of the front
warrants continued PoPs through Tuesday.

High temperatures will generally be in the lower 80s this
weekend into early next week, although temps may begin to trend
a bit warmer by Tuesday. Expect lows in the 60s each night with
lower 70s possible Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions will continue through the early morning hours
ahead of precipitation and thunderstorms as a warm front pushes
north across the region. Showers will be predominate in the
morning starting around 09Z for the most western and southern
TAF sites. There will some potential of thunderstorms will these
showers, though the greatest potential will be in the
afternoon/evening around 18-20Z when instability will be the
highest. As thunderstorms move through, there is the potential
for gusty winds across the terminals, mainly in the afternoon,
but can`t rule it out during the morning round for KCAK and
KYNG. There will be potential for heavy rainfall within
thunderstorms as well as they move through. During these points,
terminals could see IFR visibility and ceilings temporarily.
Showers and thunderstorm potential will fall off into the late
evening, with a low probability of showers moving through KCLE
at the end of the period around 07-10Z on Thursday.

Winds will continue to be light and variable tonight the
becoming predominately south-southwesterly at 5-10 knots by
Wednesday morning. Winds will begin to increase and veer more
westerly towards the end of the TAF period with the approaching
cold front.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in lingering showers and
thunderstorms across the south and southeast portion of the area
Thursday afternoon and evening. VFR expected Friday before Non-
VFR chances return Saturday and Sunday in scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake Erie will be quiet for today ahead of a low pressure system
and cold front with winds mainly out of the south at 5-10 knots.
Confidence continues to increase for winds of greater than 20
knots across much of lake starting early Thursday morning. A
Small Craft Advisory will probably be needed starting around
11Z Thursday morning for the western zone through Geneva on the
Lake. The rest of the eastern zone will need one around 13-14Z.
Winds should subside from west to east across the lake
throughout the day and fall below advisory criteria by 21Z.
Waves will be building along with the increased winds and could
see heights around 5 feet, mainly for the central and eastern
basins. Waves will be slower to subside and are expected to
decrease below 3 feet by early Friday morning. Thunderstorms
will be another concern over the next couple of days as a few
rounds are expected to impact the lake starting this morning.
There will be increased waves and potential for gusty winds
within these storms.

There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend with potential for gusty winds and increased waves.
Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be less than 10 knots or
less through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23