Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 150546
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1246 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak ridge of high pressure over the local area will weaken
tonight. Low pressure will move east across the northern Great Lakes
Friday. A trailing cold front will extend south from the low as it
moves east across the local area Friday. A warm front will lift
north across the area Saturday as another low pressure system moves
into the central Great Lakes and weakens.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Temps are tough tonight. Many areas are already into the single
digits even with high clouds passing overheard. Think TOL may be
about done dropping since a strato cu deck is closing in from
the west. BJJ is a different story and may make a run for zero
tonight. The back edge of the thicker cirrus is just about at
the IN/OH border so clouds make actually decrease for a time
overnight. With that in mind have lowered temps many areas. The
snow showers in the far east continue to diminish.

Previous...A cluster of lake effect snow showers continues to
move east across northeast Ohio toward northwest Pennsylvania.
The mean flow will gradually shift to a northwest and then
westerly direction through the rest of the afternoon into the
evening hours. Once the band sets up along the lake shore, there
is the potential for more accumulating snow along the lake
shore tonight. As the band shifts out over the lake Friday, a
cold front will approach from the west. An swath of light snow
will push southeast into the forecast area Friday afternoon with
the best moisture and dynamics occurring over the eastern half
of the forecast area. Snow accumulations during the day Friday
and Friday night will be an inch or less in the western half of
the area. Higher accumulations will take place in the northeast
snowbelt as lake enhancement plays a role accumulating snow.
Extreme western portions of the area like Toledo and Findlay
will be less than an inch as mentioned and will see mostly a
wind shift with the cold front.

Temperatures will be a bit tricky tonight.  Upstream over Michigan,
temperatures plummeted to well below 0 degrees last night as skies
cleared out in the wake of the low pressure.  850 MB temperatures
dropped to -16 degrees over that area and cold air took place in
that area.  We are seeing clearing skies across the area tonight and
I anticipate temperatures to plummet in the western half of the
forecast area as the sun begins to set.  I have temperatures
dropping to around 10 degrees by 03z this evening over Toledo and
Findlay and then leveling off.  A similar drop will take a bit
longer over the rest of the forecast area tonight.  Keep in mind,
some 850 MB warm air advection will take place up to -14 and winds
will be west southwest.  So, I don`t anticipate the drops they had
northwest of here to occur tonight.  Highs will be quite a bit
warmer Friday and Friday night as the cold arctic air lifts out and
air mass behind cold front is not expected to be as cold.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A front will stall across Lake Erie Saturday and gradually lift
northeast as a warm front. The GFS is faster at moving the front
east while the ECMWF is slower. Isentropic lift associated with the
front will produce some light snow mainly over the eastern portion
of the forecast area. The upper flow will become more southwesterly
on Sunday and move a short wave northeast toward the region as
temperatures moderate. 850 mb temperatures warm to near or above
freezing so mainly light liquid precipitation is expected Sunday
afternoon.

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue Sunday night as the weak
disturbance quickly exits the region. Above normal temperatures are
expected Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Good amount of uncertainty remains for the forecast next week, with
GFS/ECMWF differences resulting in pop/p-type and temperature
differences. Monday starts out with a surge of warmer air moving
north across the region, with highs expected to reach 40 degrees
Monday and Tuesday. Weak vort max pushing southeast across the Great
Lakes will curtail the ridging, and may be a focus for some precip
Monday and Monday night, although model signals are weak and
inconsistent. GFS is much more energetic as with a cold front moving
through Tuesday and Tuesday night, bringing widespread precip to the
area changing from rain to snow. However, ECMWF remains split with
the energy north and south of the region, and keeps the area
relatively dry through this time frame. Will keep low chance pops in
for this time frame, albeit with little confidence. Temperatures
will turn cooler for Tuesday night through Wednesday night, but
still around normal for this time of year. High pressure will build
back into the area Wednesday night through Thursday, with a warming
trend expected and mainly dry conditions, aside from any lingering
lake effect snow across the snow belt.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
High level cloud cover continues to flow across most of the
region with some lower end VFR clouds moving into NW Ohio. There
is also some low end VFR cloud cover flowing off of Lake Erie
into the vicinity of KERI. Expect to see the low end VFR cloud
cover to spread eastward overnight. As a cold front approaches
the area this afternoon expect to see ceilings lower. MVFR
ceilings arrive across NW Ohio by afternoon and spread eastward.
Some very light snow may develop from this lower cloud deck but
do not anticipate any visibility issues. The main area of snow
will develop over the lake mid to late afternoon and then spread
onshore between KCLE and KERI around 00Z. The worst conditions
(IFR) will occur around KERI.

Light winds expected through sunrise then south to southwest
winds increasing ahead of the front. Gusts 20 to 25 knots will
become common. Winds shift more to the west in the wake of the
front during the evening.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Saturday across the area and again
Sunday night into Monday. Non-VFR also possible in northeast
Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil conditions are expected tonight as high pressure slips by
to the east. The pressure gradient will increase Friday as west to
southwest winds increase. A small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed Friday afternoon which will continue until Saturday afternoon
as the next clipper moves by well to the north.

A front will stall near the lake Saturday evening and lift northeast
on Sunday as a warm front. The front will lift farther northeast
early next as high pressure builds over the southeast states.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Kubina/Lombardy
SHORT TERM...LaPlante
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...LaPlante



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