Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 040547
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
147 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BREAK UP OVER THE AREA WITH BOTH THE
EAST AND WEST ENDS MOSTLY CLEAR. CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ARE MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND SHOULD ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING A PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALL
AREAS BUT BY MORNING IT WILL AGAIN BE OVERCAST. GIVEN CURRENT
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FORECAST LOWS LOOK FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COOL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM SOUTH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER OHIO. MODERATE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE REGION BEING IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE
UPPER JET. ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE MODEST INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. SO WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WHICH MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL OR PERHAPS SLEET. THE SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERN THIRD SHOULD BE DRY FOR MOST
OF THE MORNING WHILE CATEGORICAL POPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST.
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN COUNTIES. GRADUAL DRYING AND SLOW CLEARING WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE NORTH NEAR COOL LAKE ERIE AS A
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AFTER THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES FROM CANADA WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL MEANDER
IN PLACE OFF OF THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL HOVER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA ON FRIDAY AND
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR A DAY AND A HALF OF DRY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

THE SQUEEZE PLAY WILL THEN BE ON FOR THIS RIDGE AS THE NEXT TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH FROM CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON DISSIPATING THE RIDGE
BETWEEN THE INCOMING TROUGH AND CUT OFF LOW IN THE EAST. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL THEN EXTEND A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING CHANCE/LIKELY POPS TO THE AREA AND POTENTIALLY EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH EAST ON SUNDAY BUT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED AGAIN ALLOWING THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME CUT OFF OVER QUEBEC. THIS ONCE AGAIN PLACES
NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA FAVORABLY IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL
KEEP US STABLE AND DRY FOR MONDAY. THEN YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. THE TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EVERY OTHER
DAY CONTINUES...

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SATURDAY COULD
EVEN BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK AND A HALF.
TEMPERATURES MAY SETTLE A BIT BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY BUT NOTHING TOO COLD TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE
OHIO INDIANA BORDER TODAY AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL IFR. VFR THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA
WITH INCREASING MID CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO EARLY TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO MVFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN
SHOWERS. NON-VFR REDEVELOPING ON SATURDAY LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE CONTINUES TO BE VERY QUIET THIS WEEK. WAVES WILL BE 2 FEET
OF LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR
LESS EXCEPT WHEN STRONGER AROUND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...SEFCOVIC



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