Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 281344
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
944 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY BUT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA BY SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE.
ORIGINAL...SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BRIEFLY BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG BUT THE
SUN IS ALREADY UP AND WILL BEING TO MIX IT OUT. OTHERWISE ONLY
SOME MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVING. IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80.
HOWEVER IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE AS A LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING ALLOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH HEATING TO HELP INITIATE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. HOWEVER BY EVENING THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO THAT INITIATE ALONG
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN. SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WET DAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. IF
ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER BY SUNDAY WITH
MOST LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING HIGHS IN THE 60S. FLOW OFF OF THE
COOLER WATERS OF LAKE ERIE MAY END UP KEEP HIGHS AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE HOLDING A WEAK UPPER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY MON THRU WED. SOUTH FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVEL WILL BRING
MOISTURE NORTH INTO OHIO AND PA. SEEMS REASONABLE TO CONTINUE WITH
SMALL CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH THE POPS TAPERING DOWN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. BUILDING UPPER RIDGING AND A LIGHT SE FLOW SHOULD
LEAD TO WARMING TEMPS THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY REMAINING FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DRIER AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUNCHING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD
PROVIDE FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SCT CU OVER THE INLAND AREAS TODAY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE CU WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. LIGHT NW
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE TODAY WITH MAX SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS TURN SE TONIGHT AND MOISTURE STARTS TO SPREAD BACK
NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. A FEW SHRA COULD BREAK OUT AROUND
FDY BY 12Z BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY IN SHRA/TS. NON VFR POSSIBLE
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL TURN TO NE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD INCREASE WAVES TO 1 TO
POSSIBLE 3 FEET IN THE WEST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL TURN
SE TONIGHT...SOUTH ON FRI AND SW FRI NIGHT WHILE RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE LATE SAT AND SHIFT
WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NE. THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG OF A
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE LAKE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BASED ON
BEST COLLABORATION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR MARGINAL
SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD SETTLE DOWN SOME FOR MON.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



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