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000
FXUS61 KCLE 231702
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
102 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT US OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTH OF FINDLAY TO NEAR CAK AND
YNG AND CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOME SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP...NO THUNDER FORECAST. THE AIR IS A LITTLE UNSTABLE
BUT MOST OF THE THUNDER SHOULD BE SOUTH. ADJUSTED THE HIGHS DOWN
WITH THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE AND FOR LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
INTRODUCED FALLING TEMPERATURES. SOME SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
OCCURRING... CONTINUED TO MENTION SCATTERED SHOWERS AS RETURNS
SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR. THE AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD
OF THE JET...THAT WILL HELP MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA BY
6 PM TONIGHT. WILL GET GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND LOWS WILL
GET BACK INTO THE 50S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TO END THE WORK
WEEK. AS HAS BEEN FAIRLY TYPICAL THIS SUMMER...HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S AND NIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

WEEKEND LEFT UNSETTLED...ALTHOUGH NOT A WASHOUT. WARM FRONT AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HAVE CONTINUED BROAD BRUSHED LOW CHANCE POPS. HIGHS SATURDAY ON
EITHER SIDE OF 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY IS A TRICKY FORECAST DAY. THE SHOWERS PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A BUBBLE OF WARM AIR SLIDING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY AND THIS WARMER AIR COULD BRUSH
THE AREA. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SO THERE MAY BE A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. WILL FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BUT THE ACTUAL TEMPS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE OR BELOW THAT DEPENDING ON THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. BY MONDAY
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THE NEXT COOL DOWN
SHOULD BE UNDERWAY. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 70 IF IT IS
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER BY TUESDAY WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND 6C. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. FORECAST TEMPS WILL BE SOME 10 DEGREES OR SO
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE INLAND TAF SITES.
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH PATCHY LIGHT RA
WILL ALSO BE DRIFTING SOUTH. DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTH
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING HELPING CIGS TO SCATTER OUT AT TOL AND
PROBABLY FDY. THE REST OF THE AREA MAY HANG ON TO BKN CIGS THRU THE
NIGHT AND THU MORNING. ERI AND CLE SHOULD SEE SCT CLOUDS BY MIDDAY
THU. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL SETTLE DOWN AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT IS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS INITIALLY
AND THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY AT TIMES TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WINDS AND WAVES TO EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE RISES SHOULD BOOST THE NORTH WINDS TO
ABOUT 20 KNOTS OR SO. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENING INTO
THU MORNING.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD COME AROUND
FROM THE SOUTH. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS/KOSARIK