Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 171043
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
643 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Expansive area of high pressure will remain over the Ohio Valley
through Friday before shifting to the New England coast. An upper
level ridge strengthens aloft Thursday into Friday bringing
another stretch of warm and dry conditions to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Temperatures have stabilized with a light southerly flow
starting to develop. Frost Advisory remains in effect for
portions of the area until 10 AM. Cirrus can be seen starting to
sneak in from the west but will be thin and shift south with
time.

Previous discussion...Temperatures generally in the mid 30s and
may fall another degree or two prior to sunrise so will leave
the Frost Advisory in effect through 10 AM. Otherwise high
pressure over the Ohio Valley will remain the dominant weather
feature with a very dry airmass in place. Southwesterly winds
will be on the increase today as low pressure passes north of
the Great Lakes and the gradient tightens across northern
portions of the area. Wind gusts to around 20 mph will be common
this afternoon along with strengthening warm advection. The
temperature at 925mb will warm 4-6C over the next 12 hours with
highs forecast in the 60s. Lows tonight will be cool but not
expecting any more than patchy frost in a few of the coolest
locations with lows ranging from the upper 30s towards central
Ohio to near 50 along the lakeshore. Wednesday will feature more
of the same with sunny skies, a dry airmass, and temperatures
trending another 2-4 degrees warmer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The models still show an upper trough with little moisture crossing
the area Wed night then a weak cold front with a narrow band of
limited moisture around 850 mb moving southeast across the CWA late
Thu and Thu night. Neither of these features seems capable of
producing rain but will show a better band of clouds with the front
late Thu and Thu night. Temps will show little daily change.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will dominate Fri and Sat to provide dry conditions
and warming temps. The models differ Sun and Mon with the GFS
showing a stronger and more progressive cold front reaching the
area early Sun night. Will use an averaging type approach to the
models and start to ramp up pops late Sun into Sun night with a
continued chc on Mon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF cycle with high
pressure over the Ohio Valley. Light south to southwest winds
will increase after 15Z and gust to around 20 knots. Winds will
lose the gustiness after 22Z and be out of the southwest around
5-10 knots tonight.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in morning fog for inland locations possible
early Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
The typical cooler season setup with SCA conditions on the lake
appears likely today into tonight then the SW winds should diminish
some for Wed as high pressure spreads back NW toward the lake. Winds
should increase again for Wed night and Thu with marginal SCA
conditions possible again as a weakening cold front approaches the
lake.

Winds then settle down again Thu night into Fri as the high again
builds back toward the lake while backing to the south.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ013-014-
     020>023-029>033-036>038-047.
PA...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for PAZ002-003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT
     Wednesday for LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Adams


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