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000
FXUS61 KCLE 261053
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
653 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably cool conditions will continue today as an
upper trough will lingers over the Great Lakes region.  A surface trough
will swing across the forecast area this afternoon kicking off some showers
and thunderstorms in the snowbelt area east of Cleveland.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No significant changes for the 630 update.

Original discussion...
Today will be a couple of degrees cooler than Sunday as a large
upper trough lingers across the Great Lakes. Currently a few
showers remain across inland snowbelt east of Cleveland. Showers
will increase some after sunrise for a couple of hours. More
widespread shower activity will occur this afternoon as a trough
swings across the Eastern Lakes. Better chance of thunder this
afternoon with the trough and the daytime heating. Only in
general thunder but could see some small hail with tsra as
freezing level so low.

Temps will be unseasonably cool tonight with lows from the upper
40s into lower 50s. A weak cold front will push across the
forecast area tonight kicking off some more showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Again showers should be confined to snowbelt area
east of Cleveland. By daybreak Tuesday the 850mb temps plunge to
3c allowing lake effect showers to kick in.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
For Tuesday night am concerned about a likely continuation of lake
effect showers and thunderstorms impacting somewhere in the
"snowbelt". Capes 1800-1900 j/kg to start the night.  Capes decrease
through the night as drier air moves in so left out pops for
Wednesday as high pressure continues to influence the area.
Wednesday night through Thursday night low pressure moves into the
central lakes. A cold front will be north of the region across the
central lakes. Models show sufficient moisture across the area for a
decent chance for showers and thunderstorms as daytime li`s drop to
-6 to -9 according to the GFS. For now will continue with likely
pops. Temps approaching normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday and friday night another low moves from the central plains
into the central lakes. Will continue with likely pops with
continued deep moisture and instability in the area. A cold front
will drop across the area Saturday into Sunday bringing drier air in
the area from the northwest. Will begin Saturday with chance pops
and decrease to slight chance by Sunday.  Temps near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
A few shower eastern Lakeshore will gradually diminish next hour
or so. Surface trough will swing across the lake this afternoon
followed by an upper level short wave overnight. Scattered
showers and isolated TSRA expected mainly in the snowbelt east
of CLE this afternoon.

OUTLOOK...non-VFR in showers tonight into Tuesday morning. Non-
VFR possible again Thursday into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory in effect for today. West winds will
increase to 15 to 20 knots and then swing to the Southwest for a
period as trough swings across the Lake. Small craft ends
tonight as winds diminish to 10 to 15 knots but choppy
conditions will continue.

Tuesday night models have high pressure building across the lower
Ohio valley and west-southwest winds on the lake around 10 knots.
Could see lake effect thunderstorms however east half with the cold
air aloft over the warmer waters. Winds will back slightly Wednesday
as the high drifts east and low pressure approaches the western
lakes. Thursday should see the strongest winds of the period from
the southwest around 15-20kts as low pressure moves through the
central lakes. Friday look for winds from the southwest closer to 10
knots as the gradient relaxes.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for OHZ011-012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB/TK