Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 290436
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1136 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
LAKES TOMORROW LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.  THE LOW WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE LAKES TOMORROW NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA.  A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAVE TRIMMED THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY BACK TO 6 AM. COULD
HAVE PROBABLY GONE WITH 7 AM BUT THE KTOL AREA MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP BEFORE THEN. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY HIT LOWS MOST AREAS AND
HAVE STARTED TO COME BACK UP. OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TOMORROW MORNING. NO PRECIP OUT THERE YET...BUT
EXPECT IT WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM TAPS INTO GULF
MOISTURE. MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING PRECIP INTO
NW OHIO TOWARD 12Z...REAL QUESTION IS WHETHER SURFACE TEMPS CAN
RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES. RIGHT NOW
APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL OUT RUN THE SURFACE TEMPS AND
THAT PRECIP WILL START AS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THINKING THAT
SURFACE TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE MORNING SO WILL RUN
THE ADVISORY UNTIL NOON. DID NOT INCLUDE EASTERN COUNTIES IN
ADVISORY AS THINK THAT BY THE TIME PRECIP REACHES THERE TOWARD
NOON...SURFACE TEMPS WILL HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.

MODELS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE LOW AND THE TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT.
MODELS MOVE SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW EVENING
WHICH WOULD MEAN ALL PRECIP AFTER 00Z WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
COULD GET 2 TO 4 INCHES INLAND SNOWBELT TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT.  LAKE ENHANCEMENT SNOW WILL KICK IN FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS
DIP TO -18C.  ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BY FRIDAY EVENING.  EXPECT MAINLY FLURRIES AFTER
THAT. THE HIGHER TOTALS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NW PA.

LEFT SATURDAY NIGHT UNCHANGED AS DOUBTS AS TO THE TIMING OF THE SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT.  12Z ECMWF RUN KEEPS SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN
LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WHILE GFS MOVES THE NEXT SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RATHER COLD DEEP WINTER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED AS SPOKES FROM THE UPPER EASTERN CANADIAN VORTEX PIVOTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS OF BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS PRODUCE A WEAKER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION
COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL TO A LIGHT EVENT.
ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM EARLY IN
THE WEEK WITH AN REINFORCING FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY.
WITH SNOW COVER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE HOPE FOR MUCH
MELTING TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO BE COOLER THAN OTHERWISE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT MORE SUBZERO TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
MORNING AND PERHAPS LATE IN THE WEEK BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY WORSEN WITH TIME. AFTER SUNRISE MOST AREAS WILL BE
DOWN TO IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS FREEZING RAIN BUT THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD BE BRIEF. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. IN
THE EAST...EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW AT ERIE WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN SPEED OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO
MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST
FRIDAY. MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN
SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. ICE FLOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THE WINDS
WILL FLIP FROM THE SOUTH...PEAKING AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO COLD FROPA. BEHIND THE FRONT THE
WIND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND BLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY THE WIND WILL BRIEFLY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE HIGH WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF THE
AREA AND THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND BE CENTERED ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AT ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH. WIND
WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...THEN FLIP
FROM THE NORTH BY THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR
     OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LAPLANTE






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