Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 171125
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
525 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below for the 12Z TAFs.


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Generally bkn
clouds at mid/upper levels will persist across much of S TX today.
CIGs are expected to lower tonight but generally remain above
3kft. There is a slight chc of light rain across CRP and a mix of
light rain and light freezing rain across ALI briefly toward
early Thu morning. However, given the very low chance, did not
mention in the TAF at this time.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 415 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...

A strong arctic airmass will remain across S TX today with freezing
temps continuing through late morning and highs only reaching the
mid 30s to around 40 this afternoon under mostly cloudy skies. The
exception will be the Victoria Crossroads where brief sunshine is
expected today, but clouds will spread back to the north through
tonight. Freezing temps are expected again tonight, however, not
quite as cold nor as long of a duration. There is a slight chc of
light precipitation toward early Thursday morning across the
southern Brush Country and southern Coastal Bend. This is in
response to a weak upper disturbance progged to move across the area
late tonight. The combination of the freezing temps and light precip
may lead to a brief period of a mix of light rain or light freezing
rain Thu morning. The area would mainly be west of Highway 77 and
east of Highway 16. No accumulations are expected at this time.
Slightly warmer conditions are expected Thu with highs in the mid to
upper 40s. Rain chances are expected to increase to a chance across
the southern CWA Thu afternoon.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION (Thursday night through Tuesday)...

Coastal trough remains in the area Thursday night as an upper level
disturbance approaches from the west. This will lead to periodic
showers Thursday night into Friday. Best chances will exist across
eastern parts of the area and Gulf Waters on Friday and will keep
50/60 pops in the forecast. Rain chances will diminish on Friday
from west to east as drier air moves into South Texas and coastal
trough weakens. Highs on Friday will only be in the middle to upper
50s.

Quiet weather is expected on Saturday as upper level ridging briefly
builds over the area. Low level southerly flow in advance of the
next upper level storm system will bring much warmer temps to South
Texas. Highs on Saturday will be in the lower to middle 70s across
much of the area.

The next upper level trough will move into the Plains Sunday and
Sunday night, sending a cold front southward across the state. In
advance of this boundary, moisture will increase over the eastern
Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads.  Could see some showers as
the front approaches these areas, and 30/40 pops seems reasonable
for now. Across the Rio Grande Plains, moisture scours out too
quickly so no rain is expected out west.

A significant cooldown is not expected behind this front. Pleasant
weather with mild conditions will occur early next week. Highs
across the area will be in the mid/upper 60s on Monday with upper
60s to low 70s on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    37  33  47  41  57  /  10  20  30  40  50
Victoria          38  27  44  38  59  /   0  10  10  20  50
Laredo            40  32  44  37  58  /   0  10  10  30  10
Alice             38  31  45  39  57  /   0  10  20  30  40
Rockport          39  35  47  43  58  /   0  10  20  30  60
Cotulla           39  29  44  37  56  /   0  10  10  20  10
Kingsville        37  32  46  41  58  /  10  20  30  40  40
Navy Corpus       38  37  48  46  58  /  10  20  30  50  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Warning until noon CST today For the following zones:
     Aransas...Bee...Calhoun...Duval...Goliad...Jim Wells...
     Kleberg...La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...Nueces...
     Refugio...San Patricio...Victoria...Webb.

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today For the following
     zones: Aransas...Bee...Calhoun...Goliad...Jim Wells...
     Kleberg...Live Oak...Nueces...Refugio...San Patricio...
     Victoria.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon For the
     following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning For the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION



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