Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 201127
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
527 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for 12Z aviation.

&&

.AVIATION...

Line of thunderstorms now pushing east of CRP TAF sites with
shower activity likely to continue for another couple of hours.
VCT will continue shower and thunderstorm activity through mid-
morning as well. LRD and ALI likely done with precipitation. Will
see mainly VFR conditions...though MVFR cigs can be expected at
times with showers. There is a very small chance of an isolated
shower or thunderstorm redeveloping this afternoon in the
east...but chances are too small to include in tafs at this time.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 433 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tonight)...

Upper level system continues to approach the area with the upper
level trough axis now near the Big Bend and vort max along and
just east of the Rio Grande. area of widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity maintaining itself east of vort max. This
convection is beginning to progress a bit more quickly toward the
east this morning. Meso models not handing things very well, but
expect this convection to move out by early morning for most of
the area...could linger in Victoria Crossroads region a bit
longer. With upper low circulation still to the west will expect
cloud cover to linger for much of the area. Also can`t rule out an
isolated shower or thunderstorm east this afternoon. Though much
of the highest pwats (1.75"+) will be pushed east. Have kept with
slightly below guidance temperatures for most of the area with
expected cloud cover and possible lingering convection. Did keep
around guidance far west where some clearing is likely during the
day.

By late this evening all convection should be offshore as upper
low finally shifts eastward. Will expect quieter weather tonight
with clouds gradually clearing. Much drier air will spread into
the area overnight with temperatures cooling into the 50s.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...High pressure building over
the region will keep things quiet for most of the week. An
offshore flow will persist through Wednesday, not allowing
deep moisture to build back in. Another upper level low center
will track across the central part of the country late in the
week, but with lack of moisture, expect we`ll stay mainly dry with
this system. Yet another system slightly farther south could have
a bit more moisture to work with by Sunday night, so have
introduced some slight chance pops...mainly for northeast
portions of the area at this time.

After slightly cooler temperatures today, we`ll bounce right back
into the 80s by Tuesday and continue to warm through the middle of
the week. By Thursday highs west likely back up around 90. Cold
front moves through on Friday to cool us back down a bit, though
at this point it looks like we`ll still be above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    75  59  81  57  82  /  70  20  10  10  10
Victoria          73  56  78  54  79  /  80  20  10  10  10
Laredo            81  54  85  54  87  /  20  10  10  10   0
Alice             78  57  83  54  85  /  40  10  10  10   0
Rockport          70  60  77  60  80  /  80  20  10  10  10
Cotulla           77  54  83  52  86  /  20  10  10  10   0
Kingsville        78  57  83  55  85  /  60  10  10  10   0
Navy Corpus       70  62  77  61  80  /  70  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION



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