Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 310134 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
834 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Have diminished rain chances out to the west, as activity has
tapered off and only isolated showers expected at best. Farther
east and toward Gulf of Mexico, still some showers occurring and
have adjusted rain chances near the coast and over the gulfmex
slightly (mainly southern areas). Overall, temperature forecast
doing fine although made a slight adjustment near Victoria area
for current conditions. Also, adjusted cloud cover up and input
new QPF. Otherwise, will let the rest of the forecast go for now.
Minimum temperatures seem good for now. Updated public products
out. Except for better rain chances southeastern gulfmex, do not
anticipate much text wording in the coastal water forecast at this
time (will monitor).

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 653 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation discussion.

AVIATION...

Should see less rain overnight than last night, as drier air tries
to come in. However, still enough of moisture around to have to
mention some rainfall, at least at KCRP and KALI where the drier
air take longer to get to. Thus, concerning rainfall, do have some
lingering showers/thunder at KLRD and KVCT for this evening, then
nothing for the remainder of the terminal forecast for those two
terminals. At KCRP, will mention VCSH after 06Z (monitor activity
in gulfmex), with light showers in the morning and a prob30 for
thunder after 12Z (only until about 18Z). No mention of rainfall
at KALI until after 14Z, with a prob30 for thunder before 20Z.
Winds have been backing to the north overnight and becoming light,
and have kept that trend which means there is a potential for MVFR
ceilings, mainly at KLRD but did include TEMPOs at the other
terminals for the around sunrise time frame. Winds after sunrise
will gradually become NE and ENE through the end of the terminal
forecast, with VFR after 16Z all terminals outside of any
convection. Winds should be 11 knots or less.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 332 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday night)...

Upper level low over the northwest Gulf and sfc low along the
Texas coast resulted in numerous showers and thunderstorms earlier
today. Further daytime heating has allowed convection to develop
across western parts of the area this afternoon as well. Trend
should be for convection to wane with the loss of daytime heating
later this evening. Before then though, moderate to brief heavy
downpours will be possible with any showers & storms.

Better support will then shift to the southern parts of the area
on Wednesday as upper trough continues to move to the s and sw.
Pops tomorrow will range from 20 in the north to 40 across the
south. Highs tomorrow should rebound with temperatures in the
lower to mid 90s. Drier air will then filter into the area
Wednesday night which should greatly diminish rain chances.

Lastly, the coastal flood advisory was extended until 8am
Wednesday morning. Tidal levels along the southern parts of the
Middle Texas Coast reached 2 feet above MSL during high tide.
Also, water reached the dunes on PINS and several roads on North
Beach under water. Waters levels are predicted to reach 2 feet
above MSL again early Wednesday morning during high tide. Time of
high tide is 441am at Port Aransas and 435am at Bob Hall Pier.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Labor Day)...

Moisture will be on the decrease as the long term period starts.
Isolated showers and storms will still be possible, mainly along the
sea breeze on Thursday as PWAT drops to around 2 inches. High
pressure builds beyond Thursday with drier air filtering in. Near
surface moisture will stay elevated and could at times lead to an
isolated shower. Over the weekend the center of the ridge will shift
a bit north and several weak short waves are forecast to traverse
under the south edge of the ridge toward Texas. This would increase
rain chances to 30s over the east Sunday into Monday. Expect
temperatures to remain mainly in the 90s through the period with the
warmest days Thursday and Friday, then Tuesday.

Still have the potential for some long period swells to move into
the area from TD 9 by mid/late work. This could result in an
increased rip current risk along gulf facing beaches late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  93  76  94  77  /  20  30  10  20  10
Victoria          74  94  75  95  76  /  20  20  10  20  10
Laredo            75  94  76  96  76  /  20  30  10  10  10
Alice             74  93  74  96  75  /  20  30  10  20  10
Rockport          78  91  77  92  79  /  30  30  10  20  10
Cotulla           75  94  76  96  75  /  20  20  10  10  10
Kingsville        74  94  74  95  75  /  20  40  10  20  10
Navy Corpus       78  89  79  92  79  /  40  30  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM CDT Wednesday For the
     following zones: Kleberg...Nueces...San Patricio.

GM...None.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM



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