Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 091130 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
530 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. LIGHT NW WINDS PREVAIL TODAY AS SFC HIGH SLIDES
SOUTH. MAY SEE GUSTS 10-15KT FOR COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTN BEFORE
WINDS DECOUPLE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A MORE
STEADY S-LY FLOW IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT FOR LRD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE H5 TROUGH AND H25 JET
LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
SLIDE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER INTO THE LOW 40S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...HOWEVER LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY LEAD TO A FEW LOCATIONS INLAND TO DIP
INTO THE UPPER 30S...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING LOCATIONS. LIGHT
WINDS AT THE SURFACE BOTH AFTERNOONS WILL PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER
DANGER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN CHANGE FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TO RAISE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES THIS
WEEKEND...AS IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS PROGGED
TO BACK-DOOR AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL MORE LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF SOUTH TEXAS.
TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FETCH
PROGGED BY THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH IF THE AIR MASS WILL BE THAT COLD
IT HAS A BETTER CHANCE FOR GETTING INTO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA (HOWEVER DO NOT THINK THAT WILL HAPPEN). AS A RESULT...AM
GOING WARMER BUT NOT AS WARM AS MOS OR GFS-ECMWF 2 METER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST VALUES...NOR THE BIAS-ADJUSTED/CORRECTED
VALUES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. OTHER THAN THAT...DID MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY - MONDAY MAINLY GULF WATERS BUT
ALSO SCRAPING A SMALL AMOUNT OF THE NORTHEAST INLAND AREAS...AS
IMPULSE FINALLY HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (WITH FRONT NOT
COMING THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND LIKE EXPECTED) AND POSSIBLE WEAK
FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH AND DRY BEFORE THAT WITH NOT MUCH CLOUD
COVER UNTIL THE WEEKEND THEN MORE CLOUDS...WITH A NICE WARMING
TREND BRINGING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE WEEKEND ENSUES
AND MORE CLOUDS COME IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  44  77  55  79  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          68  39  74  49  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            75  45  80  53  83  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             74  42  79  51  82  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          68  46  72  56  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           73  41  79  49  81  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        72  42  77  51  80  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       68  49  71  60  75  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION


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