Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KCRP 291128
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
628 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SH/TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FOR
EASTERN TAF SITES. LATE THIS EVENING WE SHOULD HAVE A BREAK IN THE
ACTIVITY...BUT HAVE PROB 30 GROUP FOR CRP AND VCT AGAIN SATURDAY
MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING. FOR THE MOST PART
SHOULD HAVE VFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL SEE TEMPO MVFR
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WEAK SURFACE LOW AND MID
LEVEL WEAKNESS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WHAT HAPPENS
TODAY WILL HAVE EVERYTHING TO DO WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW
THROUGH THE DAY. A NEARLY STATIONARY POSITION WAS THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS EARLY TONIGHT...BUT LATEST MESO MODELS ARE STARTING TO
SUGGEST THE LOW PULLING SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER MOISTURE...AND LESS LIFT OVER FORECAST
AREA...HOLDING THE MUCH NEEDED RAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE DURING THE
DAY. WHILE THE 06Z HRRR HAS ALSO GONE THIS DIRECTION...WILL STILL
HOLD OUT HOPE THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE TO VERIFY CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. THERE WAS SOME CONCERN FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT THINK THAT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA.
HAVE LOWER POPS WEST...BUT THINK SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD
MAKE ITS WAY WEST. HAVE GONE A BIT COOLER WITH MAX
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED. STILL HAVE EVERYONE IN THE 90S...BUT LOWER
90S...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST ZONES.

TOMORROW NIGHT LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXCEPT FEEL BETTER
CHANCE FOR POPS WILL BE A BIT FURTHER EAST AS UPPER ENERGY BECOMES
ELONGATED JUST OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS THAN TODAY...AND TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS
WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTH TEXAS TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN SUFFICIENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY MONDAY...FLATTENED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SETTLE
OVER SOUTH TEXAS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THIS SYSTEM WILL EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO. WHILE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...PW VALUES WILL RETURN TO AROUND 2 INCHES OVER THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS/MARINE ZONES BY WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN BY TUESDAY...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY. WARMEST DAYS OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH TEMPS BEING SET BACK A FEW DEGREES BY MID WEEK AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  78  92  78  96  /  60  40  40  20  30
VICTORIA          93  76  93  76  98  /  50  30  40  20  30
LAREDO            98  79  98  79 103  /  30  30  20  20  10
ALICE             91  77  93  76  99  /  50  30  30  20  20
ROCKPORT          88  79  90  79  93  /  60  40  40  20  30
COTULLA           97  76  97  76 101  /  30  20  20  20  10
KINGSVILLE        91  78  92  78  98  /  60  40  30  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       87  80  89  80  92  /  60  50  40  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.