Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 130232 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
932 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...SIMILAR SET UP AS LAST NIGHT EXCEPT WITH MUCH CALMER
WINDS AS HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES SHOULD LEAD
TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. ADDED MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG TO THE COASTAL
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STREAMER
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AS WELL. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES
NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHWEST ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE AND KEPT A MENTION OF -SHRA IN LRD UNTIL 01Z. DRY AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN OVER REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INLAND
COASTAL PLAINS AROUND 07Z WITH DETERIORATING VSBYS/LOW CLOUDS TO
LIFR BETWEEN 09Z-13Z FOR ALI AND VCT. COULD SEE IFR VSBYS AT CRP
AS WELL. SPOTTY LOW CLOUDS COULD REACH LRD BEFORE DAYBREAK ALSO.
AFTER 14Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER
EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE FOG AGAIN. CONSIDERING THAT THE WINDS NEAR
THE SUFRACE ARE ABOUT THE SAME AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
THIN...AM GOING TO PUT PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY
EASTERN AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. WAS EVEN TEMPTED TO GO WITH
AREAS OF FOG...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW AS AM NOT SURE
HOW EXTENSIVE IN AREA FOG WILL BE. MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN AREAS TOWARD MORNING AND INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY CAN
RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN...AND HAVE INCLUDED THEM IN THE
FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME THUNDER...BUT THERE IS A CAP SO WILL ONLY
MENTION SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT (SIMILAR
REASONS). WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND
EAST TEXAS...WINDS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT FOR SOUTH TEXAS STANDARDS
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY (AND VARIABLE BEFORE SUNRISE MOST
LOCATIONS)...WHICH WILL HELP TO PRODUCE FOG. FOR TEMPERATURES...AM
GOING TO GO ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND ON THE WARM SIDE FOR SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES.

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MOISTURE ADVECTION MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER
TOWARD MORNING AND INTO SUNDAY. DO NOT THINK AREA WILL SEE MUCH
CONVECTION AFTER THAT...AS WINDS UP TO 700 MB BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE AND QUITE WEAK. WINDS ARE WELL BELOW ANY ADVISORY
CRITERTION.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS PROG A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS TO DVLP ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO
A MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER LOW DVLPG ACROSS THE NE U.S.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH LITTLE TO NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED ON MON. ALTHOUGH...AN ISOLD -SHRA/TSRA OR TWO
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE
SILENT 10 POP FOR MON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUE AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MEANDERS ACROSS THE AREA THEN SHIFTS FARTHER S BY WED.
MODEL SOLNS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGH THU THEN A
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BY FRI. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING S TO SE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE GFS PROGS PWAT`S OF AROUND
2 INCHES ADVECTING INTO S TX BY FRI. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROAD BRUSHED
20 POP FOR FRI...HOWEVER IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
TREND...POPS MAY BE INCREASED. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED A 20 POP FOR SAT
AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. AS FOR
TEMPS...GUIDANCE PROGS A SLIGHT INCREASE THRU MID WEEK THEN A
DECREASE IN HIGHS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE/CLOUDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  95  73  93  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          72  95  73  95  74  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            76 100  77 101  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             72  97  72  96  74  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          76  92  77  90  79  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           73  99  73 100  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        73  96  72  95  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  91  77  90  79  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM




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