Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 251132
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
532 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. SFC
WIND EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM LIGHT W/SW THIS MORNING TO
LGT/MODERATE NW BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...OWING TO A WEAK
BOUNDARY...THEN LGT/VARIABLE DRG THE 06-12Z MONDAY PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/NAM AND
GFS STREAMLINE OUTPUT DEPICT/SUGGEST AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS
OVER THE PLAINS. CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC THAT THIS
SYSTEM WL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACRS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SERN
CONUS DRG THE PERIOD. CONCUR WITH THE NAM DETERMINISTIC THAT A
CORRESPONDING WEAK BOUNDARY WL MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. NO PCPN EXPECTED ALONG THE BNDRY OWING TO VERY DRY
CONDITIONS (MOST RECENT PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS/NAM PWAT VALUES.)

MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...ANTICIPATE ONLY SCEC
CONDITIONS TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS
(NAM/GFS DETERMINISTIC.) LOWER WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED OVER THE
BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS OWING TO COOL SST VALUES (NASA SPORT SST
COMPOSITE) WHICH WL LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING OF MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...RIDGING WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND ON TAP.
UNDERCUT THE MEX HIGHS A DEG OR TWO BUT STILL EXPECT VERY PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  WITH LIMITED MSTR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP POPS
VERY LOW.  AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE OF ARCTIC
ORIGIN SO ONLY A MODEST COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED.  NEXT WEEKEND MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VARYING DEGREES OF MSTR OVERRUNNING OUR COOL
AIRMASS.  WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    69  44  67  45  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          69  40  67  45  75  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            71  44  71  47  76  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             71  42  69  45  76  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          63  47  62  48  69  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           71  41  71  45  76  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        71  43  69  45  76  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       66  48  64  48  69  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION



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