Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KCRP 161836
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
136 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A MVFR/VFR CEILING COMBINATION DURING THE TAF
PERIOD. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 281...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED
EAST. OVERNIGHT...ISOLD/SCT MAINLY SHOWERS EXPECTED AREAWIDE. DRG
THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...A TRANSITION TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY NEAR THE COAST THEN SPREADING
WESTWARD. EXCEPT FOR MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE COASTAL BEND
THIS EVENING...GENERALLY LGT WIND EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12 AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AFFECTING THE COASTAL SITES
FIRST BEFORE MOVING FURTHER INLAND. WILL EXPECT TO SEE A COVERAGE
TO DIMINISH FROM EAST TO WEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. IN AND AROUND
ANY STORMS...GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AS WELL...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING MORE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...SLOWLY INCREASING AND
SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VFR STRATUS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER
INLAND THIS MORNING. PWATS ARE REACHING NEAR 2.5 INCHES PER THE
GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE OMEGA FIELD
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. DID INCREASE POPS FURTHER
NORTH DUE TO INFLUENCE FROM DIFFLUENT FLOW OF THE UPPER JET
POSITIONED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CWA. WITH NO OTHER STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AROUND...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO BECOME STRONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. RAINS WILL TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO
WEST AS HEATING IS LOST...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
REDEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A
SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
REMAINS ALONG THE COAST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MADE ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGING IN THE MID-80S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UNSETTLED WX EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PWATS OF 2 TO 2.25
INCHES ARE PROG TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. COMBINATION OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE...DIURNAL INSTABILITY...OCCASIONAL MID LEVEL DPVA FROM VORT
MAXES CAUGHT IN H5 NW FLOW...AND MODEST H25 DIFFLUENCE SHOULD LEAD TO
CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN DECREASE SOME BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT REGARDING FROPA
TIMING WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BEFORE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER /AND COOLER/ AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW FAST POST FRONTAL
DRIER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE...BUT HAVE ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS
DOWNWARD FOR FOR END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BEFORE THEN...MAX TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  89  76  90  76  /  40  50  30  50  30
VICTORIA          75  87  76  90  75  /  40  50  30  50  30
LAREDO            76  94  77  95  78  /  40  40  20  30  20
ALICE             75  90  75  92  76  /  30  50  20  50  20
ROCKPORT          79  89  78  90  79  /  40  50  30  50  30
COTULLA           75  92  76  94  76  /  40  40  20  30  20
KINGSVILLE        75  89  76  91  76  /  40  40  20  50  20
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  79  90  80  /  40  50  30  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.