Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 221126
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
626 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS DRG THE TAF PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR DRG THE LATE MORNING HOURS OVER THE
SRN SECTIONS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER THE SWRN
SECTIONS DRG THE LATE MORNING/AFTN OWING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE PATCHY FOG DRG THE 08-12Z THU PERIOD. LGT
GENERALLY EAST WIND EXCEPT FOR MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DRG THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WL RETAIN ISOLD CONVECTION
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN CWA TODAY OWING TO SUFFICIENT MSTR...YET
NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT CAPE WL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. CONCUR WITH THE
GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH PROG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (700-300MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 200MB JET DYNAMICS). YET...NO SIGNIFICANT
PCPN IS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THAT PERIOD OWING TO
INSUFFICENT MSTR (GFS/NAM PWAT VALUES BELOW NORMAL.)

MARINE...ANTICIPATE THAT THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WL RESULT
IN SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY/TNGT. WL MAINTAIN
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY OWING TO THE COMBINATION
OF THE NEW MOON AND EXPECTED SFC WIND VELOCITIES. (ANTICIPATE THAT
SWELL PERIODS WILL REMAIN AROUND 7 SECONDS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.) ANTICIPATE THAT WATER LEVELS WL REMAIN BELOW 2FT MSL
(BASED ON OUTPUT FROM THE TAMUCC WATER LEVEL PREDICTIONS.)

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
NNE FLOW PROG TO OCCUR FROM H9 AND ABOVE. PWATS SHOULD FALL TO LESS
THAN AN INCH AS A RESULT WITH CHANCES OF PRECIP BECOMING PRACTICALLY
NIL. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS TX OVER THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES WITH
A CONTINUATION OF A LIGHT WIND FIELD. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A POTENT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS.
LLVL WAA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ATTM MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED ALOFT AND THUS WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR NOW. TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO TX. 00Z ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG AND FAST THE
FRONT WILL BE...BUT ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT SHOULD NOT OCCUR
DURING VALID FORECAST TIME FRAME. MAX TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY
WARM THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD GIVEN MID LEVEL RIDGING
AND DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK
AS MODEST WAA OCCURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  67  82  64  86  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          86  61  85  59  89  /  10  10  10  10   0
LAREDO            87  68  86  66  90  /  20  10  10  10   0
ALICE             86  64  85  62  88  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          83  69  81  67  85  /  10  10  10  10   0
COTULLA           87  65  86  63  90  /  20  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        86  65  85  64  87  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       83  72  81  68  85  /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




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