Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 221752
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1152 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS AFTN ALONG
WITH MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING. EXPECT BREEZY ONSHORE SFC FLOW THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY
EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 281. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
OVER SOUTH TEXAS APPROXIMATELY DRG THE 02-08Z SUNDAY PERIOD
FOLLOWED BY MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. LIMITED MSTR NEAR THE SFC MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS MAINLY 09-12Z SUNDAY. AFTERWARD...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SW/W SFC
WIND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.

AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS ARE PREVALENT GENERALLY TO THE WEST
OF HIGHWAY 77 EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. EXPECT CONVECTION
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS MORNING
IN REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSISTANCE
FROM UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLY GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 37. STORMS WILL PROVIDE
LOW MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR VSBYS AS ACTIVITY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE
BRUSH COUNTRY ALONG BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST TOWARD
THE COAST THIS EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS THIS EVENING. AIR MASS
WILL DRY OUT OVERNIGHT BUT COULD SEE PATCHY FOG FORM OVER THE
INLAND COASTAL PLAINS TOWARD DAYBREAK IF WINDS DIMINISH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
STRONG UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO
EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR DEL RIO BY 00Z SUNDAY. STRONG LOW
LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 35-40 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY. LEFT EXIT REGION OF
100 KNOT 25H JET WAS MOVING INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF HEBBRONVILLE TO
FALFURRIAS WITH MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS IN THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE WITH SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK. MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO DEVELOP INSTABILITY WITH AREAS
OF CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
APPROACHES. 0-6 KM SHEAR INCREASES 40-50 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON
AS THE 50H JET MAX OF 60 KNOTS BEGINS TO PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1500-2000
J/KG OVER SOUTH TEXAS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.
STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHEAR PROFILE WOULD SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WITH THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AT 00Z SUNDAY...EXPECT SURFACE LOW WILL BE
NEAR RIO GRANDE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS
STILL IN PLACE OVER ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE UPPER DYNAMICS THAT
WILL SWING THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO STRENGTH OF SHEAR PROFILE. AIR MASS WILL
DRY OUT AS UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES.

WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND WAVE WATCH MODEL DEPICTING INCREASING
SWELL HEIGHTS TO 6 FEET WITH 7 SECOND PERIOD...EXPECT THERE WILL BE
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR GULF FACING BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PERSIST OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXTENDED THE SCA UNTIL 06Z SUNDAY.
SCEC CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR THE BAYS AND THE COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
THE WATERS TODAY WITH POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SQUALL LINE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...NOT MUCH TO DEAL WITH IN
THE EXTENDED (RAIN-WISE) ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW SUBTLETIES.
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. THERE
STILL REMAINS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SOME JET DYNAMICS. HOWEVER...
WITH DRIER AIRMASS LIKELY WILL ONLY SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHUNTED WELL TO THE EAST BY MONDAY
MORNING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE EVEN DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE WITH UPPER RIDGE. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. WILL SEE A PLEASANT DAY ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE 70 BUT IT WILL BE COOLER THAN THE 80S
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LIKELY
TO GO NO HIGHER THAN THE 60S EVEN WITH SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE. WARM UP
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GFS TRYING TO BRING ANOTHER BOUNDARY
DOWN FRIDAY. AM NOT REALLY BUYING THIS GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SO WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT AND KEEP TEMPERATURES UP ON FRIDAY. NO
RAINFALL EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE OR TWO COULD NOT BE RULED
OUT OFFSHORE IN THE SOUTHERN GULFMEX MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    61  82  52  73  46  /  70   0   0  10   0
VICTORIA          60  81  47  70  42  /  80   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            57  85  49  73  44  /  40   0   0   0   0
ALICE             59  83  51  73  44  /  60   0   0  10   0
ROCKPORT          64  79  54  72  55  /  80   0   0  10  10
COTULLA           53  83  47  69  40  /  40   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        60  83  53  73  46  /  70   0   0  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       64  79  57  72  51  /  80   0   0  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION



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