Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 060546
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1246 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES OVER SOME INTERIOR COASTAL BEND LOCATIONS
DRG THE 10-12Z FRIDAY PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...CLEANED UP TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE GRIDS...MAINLY
THE LATTER WHICH HAS MID 60S DEW POINTS NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER
30S DEW POINTS NORTHWEST. OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS NOT IN TOO BAD
A SHAPE AND THERE IS NO NEED TO SEND OUT THE ZFPCRP SINCE THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. THUS...THE NEEDED GRIDDED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT REQUIRE LITTLE NEED TO MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES TO
THE MARINE PACKAGE. FINALLY...COULD HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG INLAND
AREAS OF SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND AS FAR WEST AS JIM WELLS
COUNTY. HOWEVER...THINK IT WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR WORTH MENTIONING
IN THE GRIDS/ZONES AT THIS TIME (DEPRESSIONS NOW IN DOUBLE DIGITS).
WILL MONITOR HOWEVER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...EXCEPT FOR SOME 5SM BR AT KALI BEFORE SUNRISE (10Z-
14Z)...VFR WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT...AND
MAYBE SOME FEW CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
MAINLY ELY WINDS TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN ESE/SE WINDS ON
FRIDAY DURING THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...QUIET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST. UPPER AIR
PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY OMEGA BLOCK...WITH UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH TROUGHS OVER THE WEST AND EAST COASTS.
DRY AIRMASS WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTH TEXAS AS PW VALUES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 0.75 INCHES. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLIM TO NONE DURING THE SHORT TERM. SFC
HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING
TO THE REGION. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE MIDDLE 90S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO MIDDLE 80S OVER
THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. AS WESTERN
TROUGH SLOWLY NUDGES EASTWARD...ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUD COVER BY END OF THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. OMEGA
BLOCK PATTERN BREAKS DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER
THE EAST COAST MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.  INFLUENCES FROM THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS REMAIN MOSTLY FURTHER NORTH OF
SOUTH TEXAS...BUT A FEW PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH A
DRY LONG PUSHING IN FROM THE WESTERN CWA WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS.  TUESDAY WILL ALSO BRING THE
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AS
WEAK SHORTWAVES PASS THE REGION.  RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION BY THE MID TO LATE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  H85 TEMPS
OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY RANGE BETWEEN 23C AND
25C WITH DRY LINE MOVING IN...AND EXPECT AT LEAST UPPER 90S (COULD
STILL SEE 100F REACHED) OVER THESE AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
ADDITION...ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
BUILDING SEAS...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    89  66  84  72  85  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          87  62  84  68  83  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            96  68  92  72  94  /   0   0  10  10  10
ALICE             91  63  88  70  89  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          86  70  81  74  82  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           94  64  91  69  93  /   0   0  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  65  87  71  88  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       86  70  81  74  82  /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION


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