Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 312009
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
309 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...HAVE FINALLY
DEVELOPED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR MODEL HANDLING
THIS REASONABLY WELL...ENDS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BY ABOUT 02Z. HAVE
20 POPS AREA WIDE FOR THE EVENING...WITH 10S AND 20S AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH QPF...GFS
DEFINITELY STILL TOO AGGRESSIVE. SOMETHING OF A MIX BETWEEN NAM
AND ECMWF APPEARS THE BEST. THAT SAID...BOTH OF THOSE MODELS ARE
QUIET ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT IN MARINE AREA. HAVE CUT POPS FOR
INLAND AREAS IN THE MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 POP AREA WIDE
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH MOISTURE AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AND
COULD GET SOME SHOWERS TO POP UP ONCE AGAIN.

WITH NO MAJOR PATTERN CHANCE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TOMORROW TO
APPROACH THE SAME VALUES WE/RE SEEING TODAY AS WE SHOULD KEEP A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND...NOT THE ONSHORE FLOW WE ARE USED TO THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AT LEAST BETWEEN 100
AND 105...BUT COULD BE 105 TO 109 IF WE DON`T MIX OUT THE NEAR
SURFACE MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS
RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS REPOSITIONING
ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SURFACE LEE DEVELOPMENT
GENERATING TYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH A DECAYING BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OFFSHORE ZONES...THEN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HEAT INDEX LEVELS WILL FLIRT WITH SPS CRITERIA ON A DAILY
BASIS...THOUGH ACTUAL ADVISORY CRITERIA HEAT APPEARS UNLIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  98  76  96  77  /  20  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74 100  74  98  75  /  20  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            78 103  78 103  78  /  20  20  10  10   0
ALICE             75 100  75  98  75  /  20  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          76  95  79  91  80  /  20  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           77 102  75 103  76  /  20  20  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        75  99  76  98  76  /  20  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  92  79  90  80  /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM


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