Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 281126
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
626 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Note Aviation Discussion corresponding to the 12z TAFs

&&

.AVIATION...

LIFR/IFR/MVFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities early this morning will
transition to VFR by late morning/early afternoon. Light onshore
early this morning will increase to breezy/windy by afternoon.
There is a slight chance for showers/thunderstorms near the end
of the TAF period especially over the northern portions of South
Texas. Some storms may become strong, mainly over the Victoria
Crossroads 09-12z Wednesday.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 504 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...

Deterministic NWP models predict a strong upper disturbance to
approach Texas Today then move slowly across Texas/SRN Plains
Tonight through Wednesday. Moisture expected to increase over the
CWA in advance of the upper system, yet PWAT values not expected
to reach/exceed normal until after 06z Wednesdsay (NAM
deterministic.) 06-12z Wednesday...NAM deterministic predict
significant CIN with high CAPE and strong 0-6km shear with BRN in
the multi-cellular/supercelluar range. Surface boundary to remain
NW of the CWA. Thus, only elevated convection anticipated yet any
such convection may become strong. 12-18z Wednesday...Continued
upper forcing from the upper system. CIN values decrease and
CAPE/shear remains high, yet significant drying expected in
response to frontal/dryline passage. Convection may develop along
this boundary and become strong. SPC has a slight risk for the
NERN CWA after 12z Wednesday. After 18z Wednesday...significant
drying expected which will limit convective development.

Coastal/Marine...Areas of sea fog early this morning over the Bays
and Nearshore Coastal Waters (surface dew points near the SST
values.) Expect SCA conditions to develop over the Coastal Waters
Today and continue Tonight/early Wednesday morning. The sea state
based on WaveWatch/NWPS output and expected sfc wind velocities
suggest moderate rip current risk Today and a high risk Wednesday.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday Night)...

Surface cold front will push through the forecast area late
Wednesday Night. Convergence along the boundary combined with
dynamical support from lingering upper trough will result in
scattered showers.  Models still show plenty of CAPE across the
Coastal Bend ahead of the boundary, which if realized could result
in a stormy night. However the cap appears to strong to break, thus
limiting pcpn to primarly showers. Much drier air surges into the
area on Thursday/Friday with min RH values of 25-35%. However, winds
will not be strong enough to reach critical fire thresholds. The
drier airmass will lead to a few pleasant nights with min temps in
the upper 50s/lower 60s by Fri AM.  Onshore flow returns on Friday
as the next storm system moves into the Southern Rockies. Expect a
few streamer showers Saturday before stronger dynamics move in
Sunday when the best chance of rain/storms will occur.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    84  72  88  65  82  /  10  10  40  20  10
Victoria          84  71  85  62  79  /  10  40  70  20  10
Laredo            95  69  93  63  86  /  10  30  10  10  10
Alice             89  71  91  63  84  /  10  20  30  20  10
Rockport          81  72  81  67  79  /  10  20  40  20  10
Cotulla           92  65  91  60  84  /  10  50  10  10   0
Kingsville        88  72  92  64  85  /  10  10  30  20  10
Navy Corpus       80  73  82  68  79  /  10  10  40  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM CDT
     Wednesday For the following zones: Coastal waters from
     Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters
     from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters
     from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60
     NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION



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