Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 301733
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1233 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH S
TX...WILL CONTINUE TO EFFECT MAINLY ALI...CRP AND VCT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING EFFECTS FARTHER W AT LRD THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF GUSTS TO AROUND 40KTS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. 40KT GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE INITIAL GUST FRONT WITH
WINDS REMAINING IN THE 30 KNOT RANGE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
THE GUST FRONT. FOR THE TAFS...HAVE TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE STRONGER STORMS/HIGHER GUSTS FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL 4 TAF
SITES. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM SE TO NW
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN
PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MVFR VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO DVLP TOWARD WED MORNING FROM ALI TO POSSIBLY VCT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON WED...BUT SHOULD BE
ISOL/SCT DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...DECIDED TO INCREASE
POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE WEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. UPDATES WILL
BE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...A SURGE OF CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR NEAR AND
SOUTH OF BRO MOVING NORTHWARD. THE CRP 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED 2
INCH PWAT ALREADY IN PLACE...ALONG WITH LARGE CAPE VALUES AND
LITTLE CIN. THE CAVEAT TO TODAY`S RAIN CHANCES WILL BE THE
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING THE CONVECTION. AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
CONVECTION AND MODELS PROG THIS CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE
THRU THE AFTERNOON. AM EXPECTING THAT THE OTHER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL WIN OUT AND SCT CONVECTION WILL DEVLP BY LATER
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE E THEN SPREAD W WITH THE SEA BREEZE BECOMING
NUM BY AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION NEAR BRO IS SHOWING AROUND 40KT
VELOCITIES THUS WILL MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL MARINE WARNINGS THIS
MORNING. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WX...BUT SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40KTS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO
LEAD TO LOCALIZED PONDING/MINOR FLOODING FOR SOME LOW LYING AREAS.
CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...STRATUS CURRENTLY TRYING TO DVLP OVER INTERIOR S TX
AND A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY IMPACT KLRD/KALI AT START OF TAF
PERIOD. KCRP/KVCT MAY BRIEFLY HAVE MVFR VSBYS FOR AN HR OR TWO
AFTER SUNRISE DUE TO PERSISTENT AEROSOLS TRAPPED IN ATMOSPHERE.
OTHERWISE...CU FIELD TO DVLP TODAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION. SHRA/TS XPCTD TO DVLP FIRST ALONG TX COAST THIS MRNG
AND THEN SPREAD/DVLP INLAND. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP AT KCRP TO
BE FROM MID MRNG THRU EARLY AFTN...KVCT/KALI FROM LATE MRNG THRU
EARLY EVENING...AND KLRD FROM MID AFTN THRU MID EVENING. +RA
LIKELY WITH ANY CONVECTION TODAY WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS. TAF AMENDMENTS FOR PRECIP TIMING
POSSIBLE BASED OFF FUTURE CONVECTIVE TRENDS. CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT AFTER EVENING CONVECTION DSPTS...THOUGH ADDITIONAL ISO/SCT
SHRA MAY DVLP ALONG COAST TOWARDS SUNRISE WED. LIGHT ESERLY SFC
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...NO SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC
FEATURES TO INFLUENCE AREA WEATHER TODAY AS S TX REMAINS IN
BETWEEN MID LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NW AND WEAK TROUGHING TO THE S
AND NE. THUS...ANY ACTIVE WEATHER IS LIKELY TO BE BASED UPON
MESOSCALE IMPACTS AND WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. MESOANALYSIS
EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATES A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WITH ONLY WEAK CINH ANALYZED TO BE IN
PLACE OVER LAND AREAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AN AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. CINH SHOULD DECREASE RATHER FAST BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND MID MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA BY MID/LATE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED/EXCEEDED AND
AS DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHES NW INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW
GULF. SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD END BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZE PUSHES INLAND WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA BLOSSOMING GREATLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE OVERSPREADS ENTIRE CWA AND AS MAX
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH PRECIP TODAY GIVEN WEAK STEERING FLOW AND INCREASE OF DEEP
MOISTURE VALUES WHICH MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.
CONVECTION MAY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING KICKS
IN...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT LIKELY TO BE DRY FOR INLAND
AREAS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE
COAST MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE NIGHT AS COASTAL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES AGAIN. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN
TODAY AS SUBSIDENCE IS PROG TO BE GREATER WITH DECREASING DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE VARIATION IN MAX/MIN TEMPS
FROM PREVIOUS DAY/S VALUES WITH WEDNESDAY LIKELY TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MOISTURE WILL NOT BE
AS IMPRESSIVE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE SEA BREEZE MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN A 20 POP AT THIS
TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST STATES...RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THIS SHOULD FOR ALLOW FOR A GREATER INFLUX
OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.9
INCHES ON SATURDAY...AND 2 INCH PWATS MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND HAVE 30 TO 40
POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER THE COASTAL BEND
AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    91  77  92  77  90  /  50  20  30  20  20
VICTORIA          91  76  92  75  90  /  50  10  30  10  20
LAREDO            95  76  97  75  96  /  60  30  20  10  20
ALICE             93  75  95  75  92  /  60  10  40  10  20
ROCKPORT          91  79  91  80  88  /  50  30  30  20  20
COTULLA           94  75  95  74  94  /  50  20  20  10  20
KINGSVILLE        93  76  94  77  92  /  50  10  30  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       90  79  90  79  87  /  50  20  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION


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