Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KCRP 272048
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
348 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EAST THIS LATE AFTERNOON...A QUIET
EVENING IS EXPECTED UNDER A STRONG CAP. MODELS FIRE UP ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION ON THE MEXICAN SIDE BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN THE MIDLEVEL
AND CAPPING...STORMS SHOULD HAVE DIFFICULTY BUILDING EAST. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING THE WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD START OFF THE
MORNING ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH A MIXTURE OF LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES
AND WEAK THETA-E RIDGING POOLING MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AREAS SUPPORTING FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT MID MORNING. DID SPREAD
20 POPS INLAND FOLLOWING THE MOISTURE INFLUX AND WEAKER CAP.
DESPITE THIS...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WITH THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. FOCUS TURNS TO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT POTENT
SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH TEXAS DEVELOPING AN MCS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS...BUT WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE
BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN ZONE BY A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
JET...COOLING TEMPS AT H85 WEAKENING THE CAP...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE STORMS DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CWA.
INSTABILITY REMAINS AVAILABLE ALOFT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT STRONG TO EVEN POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY TROUGH THURSDAY)...SHOULD BE SOME STORMS AROUND
FRIDAY AS THE TAIL END OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE INTERACTS WITH DECENT
INSTABILITY AND PWATS AROUND 1.75 INCH.  WILL CARRY 40 POPS NORTH
TAPERING TO 30 SOUTH.  WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS SAT INTO SUN AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THEN WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA.  A STRONG STORM OR
TWO...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD AROUND...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
RAIN...KEPT TEMPS BELOW THE MEX NUMBERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER THAT I HELD ONTO VERY
LOW MAINLY DIURNAL POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT
THE MEX TEMPERATURES - LEANING CLOSER TO THE HPC NUMBERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  88  77  88  77  /  10  20  20  40  20
VICTORIA          74  87  74  87  75  /  10  20  20  40  30
LAREDO            77  95  76  92  76  /  20  10  30  30  10
ALICE             75  90  75  91  75  /  10  20  20  40  20
ROCKPORT          79  85  78  88  79  /  10  20  20  30  20
COTULLA           75  92  74  89  74  /  10  20  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        77  89  76  89  76  /  10  20  20  40  20
NAVY CORPUS       79  85  78  86  79  /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
TJ/70...LONG TERM



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.