Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 300904
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
404 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...

Lack of sufficient moisture from roughly H9-H4 should preclude
much /if any/ precip development today across the region. Still
may see a rogue isolated shower this afternoon across the far NW
Brush country where DPVA may be slightly stronger as a H5 s/w
trough will be nearby...but all in all precip chances today are
too low to mention in the official forecast. Areas of CI to skirt
ENE across the region resulting in occasionally filtered
sunshine...and generally partly cloudy skies...as H25 jet of 40 to
50 kts remains overhead. Lack of both precip and significant low
level cloud cover should allow for temps to warm to around 90
degrees today. However...high soil moisture from recent rainfall
may preclude temps from reaching true max warming potential.

Low and mid level moisture values are prog to slowly increase
tonight across the Coastal Plains and Gulf waters. If moisture can
increase fast enough...then isolated showers may develop by late
in the night across along the coast. During the day...a rather
potent H5 s/w trough is prog to advect NE across the CWA with a
65 kt jet streak at H25 also shifting overhead. Result of these
dynamical features with an increasingly moist and unstable airmass
should result in at least a scattering of showers and
thunderstorms during the day. Taking into consideration the
uncertainty regarding how great the moisture depth/deepness will
become...I am hesitant to go above 30% to 40% for precip chances
during the day Wed at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)...

An unsettled weather pattern may continue across South Texas into
parts of the extended forecast. Moisture improves again Wednesday
night into Thursday as model prog PW values climbing between 1.6 and
1.9 inches. During this time, a shortwave trough will be moving
through the region. This will bring about decent chances of showers
and thunderstorms and will keep pops in the 40 to 60 percent range.
Trough axis pulls away on Friday, but moisture does not completely
scour out. Diurnally driven and sea breeze convection appear like a
possibility and will continue to forecast slight to low end chance
pops on Friday. Heading into the weekend, the next upper trough
approaches and perhaps the next frontal boundary. Latest GFS/ECMWF
are not in the best agreement with timing and placement of features.
Will keep pops around 20 to 30 percent Sunday and Monday, but would
not be surprised if pops were increased in later forecasts.
Temperatures will warm through the week with highs climbing into the
90s in most locations by the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    89  72  89  73  87  /  10  20  30  50  50
Victoria          90  70  89  72  86  /  10  10  40  50  60
Laredo            93  73  91  72  90  /  10  10  40  50  40
Alice             92  69  90  72  89  /  10  10  40  50  50
Rockport          88  76  88  76  86  /  10  10  30  50  60
Cotulla           93  72  91  72  90  /  10  10  40  50  40
Kingsville        91  71  90  73  90  /  10  20  40  50  50
Navy Corpus       87  76  87  77  87  /  10  20  30  50  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM



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