Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 171132
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
632 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
It will be quite the quick transition in conditions this morning
as we start out cold and dry with widespread temperatures in the
upper 20s. However, prior to any precipitation arriving,
temperatures should safely rise above freezing and likewise should
see quite an uptick in dewpoints as well. Precipitable water
values will go from their current state of 0.25 inches to well
over and inch by 15Z today allowing for the development of
widespread showers aided by strong mid level impulses affecting
mainly NW GA.

This activity will sink south into the remainder of North GA
during the afternoon hours as surface low develops along the gulf
coast sending moisture into weak high that will remain anchored
over the Carolinas. Shortwave will quickly translate east into the
Carolinas by 21Z and with overall system losing its lift, should
see a corresponding 20 to 20 percent reduction in pops as well,
into the chance category.

Next shortwave will move along the southern tier of the area
Monday but spread moisture well into North GA as well. Have kept
at likely pops for now but certainly possible another round of
categorical may be necessary. CAPE values, even elevated variety,
not as impressive as previous runs but enough there to warrant
isolated thunder from Columbus to Macon.

Deese

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
Unsettled weather is expected for much of the long term period.

Will be watching Tuesday into Wednesday as there is potential
for an axis of heavy rainfall across the far northern counties
through Tuesday night and into the northern metro ATL areas
and down toward AHN through Wednesday.

Rain chances will be increasing Tuesday and maximizing Tuesday night
and Wednesday across north and central GA as a stationary front
will be interacting with a moist WSW flow aloft and surface low
pressure and associated short wave. Rain chances will be diminishing
Wednesday night. WPC has indicated a marginal to a slight risk for
flash flooding across the far northern counties from about Floyd to
Hall county and north, Tuesday and Tuesday night.

A cold front will approach the area Friday and move slowly across
the area on Saturday with a moist SW flow aloft, bringing another
round of rain chances.

Temperatures will run above normal through this period.

BDL

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR conditions to begin the period with just some occasional
thickening high clouds to be concerned with. A quick transition
today is expected however with lowering cigs and MVFR likely by
19Z. Along with this will come predominant -RA and TEMPO moderate
RA which still looks on track from the previous forecast. IFR to
possible LIFR on tap for Sunday night and this should become a
mainstay with the reduced cigs for much of the near term portion.
Winds will be tricky with surface wave in the gulf and high
directly on top of ATL but keep on the east side for now and shift
to west on Monday.


//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
Medium on -RA timing and LIFR potential.
High on remaining elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          55  45  63  50 /  60  30  30  30
Atlanta         53  48  61  52 /  60  50  50  30
Blairsville     49  39  61  43 /  50  40   5  20
Cartersville    48  44  59  48 /  80  40  20  20
Columbus        62  56  67  57 /  50  40  60  20
Gainesville     50  44  62  50 /  60  40  20  20
Macon           62  53  66  54 /  40  40  50  30
Rome            46  42  59  47 / 100  40  10  20
Peachtree City  55  48  62  51 /  60  50  50  30
Vidalia         66  57  70  59 /  20  20  50  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...Deese



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