Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 262333
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
633 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS OVER THE STATE
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION
TO NORTH GA YESTERDAY. TEMPS ARE RISING TODAY WITH A LOT OF THE
ACCUMULATED SNOW MELTING. THIS MELTING SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES
FRI MORNING AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S
ACROSS NORTH GA TONIGHT. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL REFREEZE AND
SNOW LEFT OVER AND THE RUN OFF FROM THE MELTING SNOW. THIS WILL
CREATE PATCHES OF BLACK ICE WHICH WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS. WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR THE EXPECTED BLACK ICE
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL GET BACK UP ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST PLACES
AFFECTED BY THE BLACK ICE POTENTIAL BY NOON FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL BE
SOME ISOLATED PLACES IN THE N GA MOUNTAINS THAT DO NOT GET ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK UNTIL SAT. THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL LIFT AND
SCATTER OUT TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

01

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
NAM IS MUCH WETTER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE
RE-EVALUATED FOR HIGHER POPS. TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL
STARTING MONDAY.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLASSICAL DAMMING PATTERN SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS
AND RIDGES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
AGAIN ON THE COOL SIDE SATURDAY. MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERSPREADS MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MIGHT BE A BIT OF AN ISSUE WITH TIMING FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS VS. INCOMING PRECIP BUT FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP REMAINS IN SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE TEMPS ARE TOO WARM FOR
WINTRY PRECIP. RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND WITH
SOME QPF TOTALS REALLY ADDING UP. GFS AND ECMWF ARE REALLY IN
REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. VERY
TRANSITORY SYSTEM AS COLD FRONT ERODES THE CAD BUT ANOTHER DAMMING
EVENT RIGHT ON ITS HEELS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH...SOME LOW- END SBCAPE VALUES START CREEPING ACROSS
THE AREA SO HAVE THUNDER IN THE GRIDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. KIND OF A
WET AND MESSY EXTENDED.

TDP



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CIG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS GOING VFR
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. AN AREAS OF STRATO CU OVER TN/MS IS PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST GA BUT NOT REACH THE ATL SITES HOWEVER
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. DURING INITIAL HEATING IN THE
MORNING EXPECT A SHALLOW LAYER TO LIFT...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO GIVE
FEW010 MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6KTS MOST AREAS THIS EVENING AND
HOLDING THROUGH FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS THIS EVENING
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          31  47  30  42 /   5   5   5  10
ATLANTA         29  43  29  42 /   5   5   5  10
BLAIRSVILLE     24  37  21  39 /   5   5   5  10
CARTERSVILLE    25  40  24  42 /   5   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        33  54  34  51 /   0   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     27  43  28  39 /   5   5   5  10
MACON           31  55  33  47 /   5   5   5  10
ROME            24  40  24  43 /   0   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  28  46  28  44 /   5   5   5  10
VIDALIA         38  57  37  48 /   5   5   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...17


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