Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KFFC 222349
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
749 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 319 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
This afternoon is pretty much panning out as forecast with the
highest pops along and south of a Columbus to Macon line where
precipitable water values have been in excess of 2 inches this
afternoon. Numerous storms have developed in this environment with
isolated strong storms which seem to be over achieving in the warm
mid level environment. There is a sharp cutoff between this
activity and what is going on across Atlanta and points northward
which is basically isolated showers at most. Expect this
configuration to remain through the remainder of the evening with
Alabama activity looking to remain west of the area and Tennessee
valley activity remaining north initially.

Frontal boundary or at least the pre frontal environment will make
its way into NW GA by 06Z tonight with enhanced mid level
moisture. However, CAPE values will remain very low and thinking
only isolated to low end chance pops warranted at this time. Will
include TSRA as well but SHRA may end up being the favored wx type
initially.

For Wed, front will sink south through the area with moisture
ahead of it pooling to result in PWs around 2 inches for most
areas. Subtle shortwave energy along with CAPE values increasing
to around 2000 J/KG should be all that is required to produce high
end chance to low end likely pops. There will be a zone of slight
cooling aloft allowing for slightly steeper lapse rates and the
potential for some stronger activity during the afternoon hours.
Right now, have the best pops across the Northern sections but
could easily see a scenario where highest pops would be carried
south of this point given greater afternoon heating potential.
Will let later shifts monitor for possible displacement of this
highest pops axis southward.

Deese

LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
The long term beings with the cold front continuing to move out of
the CWA taking most of the moisture with it. There remains
residual moisture across parts of central Georgia and have left
chance pops across central Georgia through Friday. North Georgia
should be dry for the rest of the week. All models begin spreading
moisture back across the CWA this weekend and into early next week
although they differ on the moisture depth. Will bring chance pops
to all of the CWA beginning Saturday and continuing through the
rest of the long term.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Showers continue to dissipate across the area this evening. Should
have clearing skies through the night tonight. A front will
approach the state overnight and gradually sink south through the
day on Wednesday. This should lead to the development of a cu
field between 030-040 in the morning...before lifting to between
040-050 through the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop by early afternoon...with a PROB30 covering this for
most sites. West winds will continue but should become more NW by
Wednesday afternoon at 10kts or less.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium on TSRA Wed afternoon
High on all other elements.

Kovacik

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  91  70  87 /  20  60  30  20
Atlanta         74  90  71  88 /  20  60  30  20
Blairsville     67  83  61  84 /  20  60  20  10
Cartersville    72  89  66  86 /  20  60  30  10
Columbus        75  93  74  92 /  30  50  40  40
Gainesville     73  89  69  86 /  20  60  30  10
Macon           74  92  73  91 /  30  50  40  50
Rome            72  89  65  87 /  20  60  30  10
Peachtree City  73  91  70  88 /  30  50  30  20
Vidalia         74  94  75  92 /  40  40  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kovacik
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...Kovacik


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.