Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 020812
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
412 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
PRETTY QUIET TODAY AS RIDGING INCREASES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. WILL SEE A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ADD THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND IT MIGHT JUST BE A TAD UNCOMFORTABLE
OUT THERE TODAY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING IT IS NOW OCTOBER. LOWS
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE A BIT BALMY...BUT NOT
TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. HOWEVER...CHANGES ARE MOST
DEFINITELY COMING.

AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM TROUGH IS FAIRLY WELL HANDLED BY THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS AS IT DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH NEW GUIDANCE IS SPEEDING THE SYSTEM UP
JUST A TAD. ANOTHER REINFORCING SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE DOWN BEHIND IT
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND BY FRIDAY EVENING ALL
GUIDANCE HAS A CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND
LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...SWEEPING A COLD FRONT BEHIND IT.
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND BEGIN WORKING THEIR WAY INTO NORTHWEST
GEORGIA FRIDAY MORNING.

CAPES INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LIMITED BY
CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO OCCLUDE. SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK JUST HAS GENERAL THUNDER AND
REALLY DOWNPLAYS THE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. MLCAPES
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN
600-800 J/KG...AND MOST GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 45KT OR SO PUSH THROUGH NORTH GEORGIA
WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE /MUCH STRONGER WITH THE DEEPER...LATER...
SHORTWAVE BUT THIS WOULD BE BEHIND THE FRONT/...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR IS NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. NOT MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL JET
EITHER...REALLY ONLY 35 TO 40KT. SO IF ANYTHING WERE TO OCCUR...MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL
IS DEFINITELY LIMITED BY THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LACK OF NOTABLE
850MB JET. HIRES REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE ALSO HINTS AT THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOSING THEIR STRUCTURE AND INTEGRITY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...MAXIMIZED RIGHT AROUND 18Z
FRIDAY BEFORE WHAT LITTLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AVAILABLE LIFTS OUT.

QPF NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE EITHER. STORM TOTAL VALUES DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY ARE GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT IN NORTH
GEORGIA WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY MORNING
SHOULD RESULT IN A SORT OF EASTWARD NOSE OF HIGHER QPF VALUES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BUT EVEN THEN GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5
INCHES BASIN AVERAGE. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME NO PLANS FOR ANY FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES.
HAVE GONE WITH PRETTY HIGH POPS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SINCE IT SEEMS PRETTY MUCH A CERTAINTY
THAT IT WILL RAIN.

HIGHS FRIDAY MARKEDLY COOLER ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA /NOT SO MUCH IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT/...RANGING FROM 6-10 DEGREES COOLER. DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
AND VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER CAA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REALLY DROP
FRIDAY NIGHT...INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF NORTH
GEORGIA AND 50S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE ELSE /EXCEPT AGAIN EXTREME
SOUTHEAST/...AND IN NORTH GEORGIA...FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST TEMPS ARE
10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT. ACTUAL TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF FRONT AT THE TIME BUT CONSIDERING THIS IS THE 4TH PERIOD
IT AT LEAST GIVES FOLKS AN IDEA. IF YOU LIKE FALL TEMPERATURES...
JUST WAIT TILL THE EXTENDED.


TDP


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS COOL AND DRY ON SATURDAY. DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD PUT MAX TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL MOST PLACES
ACROSS THE AREA. A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AGAIN
WITH BELOW NORMAL LOWS. BROAD TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE TN/OH
VALLEY REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME. SOME
DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SO HAVE INCLUDED ONLY LOW POPS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A GRADUAL
MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


41


&&

.CLIMATE...


RECORDS FOR 10-04

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      96 1954     59 1957     71 1941     36 1987
   KATL      91 1954     61 1957     71 1941     39 1987
                1941        1899        1884        1974
   KCSG      94 1954     65 1975     73 2007     40 1974
                            1957
   KMCN      95 1954     61 1899     73 1911     36 1987
                                                    1974



RECORDS FOR 10-05

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      98 1954     61 2009     70 2007     39 1974
                            1948        2002
   KATL      95 1954     59 1975     72 1919     40 1974
   KCSG      96 1954     64 1975     73 2007     40 1968
                                        2002
                                        1998
   KMCN     100 1954     63 2009     72 1954     37 1974
                                        1941
                                        1898



RECORDS FOR 10-06

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      98 1954     56 1968     70 1919     38 1921
                                        1910
   KATL      95 1954     54 1932     72 1884     42 1985
                                                    1964
                                                    1932
   KCSG      95 1954     63 1996     73 1954     45 1987
                                                    1974
                                                    1964
   KMCN      99 1954     65 1996     73 1954     41 1961





&&



AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR EVERYWHERE AT TAF TIME...BUT EXPECT MVFR VSBY TO DEVELOP AT
CSG/MCN AND POSSIBLY OTHER TAFS /EXCEPT ATL/ BY AROUND SUNRISE.
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF CIG AT MCN/CSG BUT LEANING TOWARDS SCT AT
BEST FOR NOW. EXPECT FEW-SCT LOW VFR CU AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH SKIES LIFTING/CLEARING AFTER 00Z. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FRIDAY MORNING AND HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA AT ATL AT
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS SSE THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY
BELOW 5 KT...NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF LOW CIGS/SHRA FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  62  77  54 /   0  40 100  50
ATLANTA         84  66  76  53 /   0  50 100  40
BLAIRSVILLE     82  59  72  47 /   0  60 100  40
CARTERSVILLE    87  65  77  50 /   0  70 100  30
COLUMBUS        87  68  80  57 /   0  40 100  40
GAINESVILLE     84  63  74  53 /   0  60 100  40
MACON           87  66  83  57 /   5  30 100  60
ROME            88  64  78  49 /   0  70 100  20
PEACHTREE CITY  85  64  77  52 /   0  50 100  40
VIDALIA         86  66  84  65 /   5  10  70  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...TDP




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