Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 291126
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
726 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
TODAY. THE RIDGING SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION TODAY...SO NO POPS
IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE WARM TODAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND NEAR
RECORD VALUES FOR SEVERAL OF THE CLIMATE SITES.

RIDING ALOFT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES TO
MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA. THE WEAK PERTURBATIONS COMBINED
WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS...MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY INTO SATURDAY.

ONCE AGAIN...THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING/COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIP ON SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS LOOK TO BE
ENHANCING PRECIP COVERAGE WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST IN THE
FLOW...AND THESE FEATURES ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO TIME. AT THE
SURFACE...A NEARLY DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD ON
SATURDAY ALSO...PROVIDING SOME FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EVE STORMS. HAVE
LEFT POPS IN THE ISOLD/SCT RANGE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANITICIPATED.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOKING TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DYNAMIC SETUP
PUSHES SEVERAL DISTURBANCES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. FOR THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM...FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY... WITH SHEAR
PARAMETERS STILL LOOKING LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH DECENT
LAPSE RATES ARE POSSIBLE. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST TO DETERMINE IF INTERACTION WILL
BE A MAIN PLAYER ON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STATE...AND WHETHER CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP INSTABILITY LEVELS LOW. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE GOOD
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGENT IN HANDLING SHORTWAVE IMPACTING THE REGION.
FOR NOW...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS /CHANCE POPS/ AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE LARGE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS
FORECAST CHANCE WAS WE GET CLOSER.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS IN THE SHORT TERM.

31

FIRE WEATHER...
A DRIER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. RH VALUES
WILL DIP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES SHOULD BE AT THEIR LOWEST BETWEEN 2PM AND
6PM. WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT AND GENERALLY AVERAGE LESS THAN 10
MPH.

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 04-29...FRIDAY.

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      90 1915     50 1999     66 1975     38 1973
                                        1970        1928
   KATL      88 1894     47 1934     67 2014     39 1992
                                        1989
                                        1970
   KMCN      92 2012     50 1934     68 1970     37 1992
                                        1914
                                        1912
   KCSG      91 2012     59 1999     71 1970     41 1973





&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
WINDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...PARTLY BECAUSE
SPEEDS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 6KT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NE WINDS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD GO BACK TO THE W/NW WHEN MIXING
BEGINS. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO NEARLY DUE
SOUTH. BRIEF SE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO SW DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
TOMORROW. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  61  86  63 /   0   5  30  40
ATLANTA         88  66  83  65 /   5  10  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     84  57  80  60 /   0  10  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    87  62  83  63 /   5  10  30  50
COLUMBUS        89  66  86  66 /   5  10  20  30
GAINESVILLE     86  62  82  63 /   0  10  30  50
MACON           90  64  87  65 /   5   5  20  30
ROME            87  60  82  63 /   5  20  40  60
PEACHTREE CITY  88  61  84  62 /   5  10  30  40
VIDALIA         91  67  88  67 /   5   5  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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