Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 261330
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
930 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR MODELS AND SOUNDING INDICATE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WILL THEREFORE
RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH GA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TO ALLOW
UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS A RESULT A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE NEXT WAVE NEAR THE MS RIVER SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT
US THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST FOR THAT TIME FRAME. ONLY A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WITH HEAVY RAIN THE GREATEST THREAT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY SEEMS TO
STALL ACROSS THE STATE INTO WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY ALSO. QPF THROUGH THE SHORT TERM REMAINS AROUND 2.00
INCHES MORE OR LESS FOR THE NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS. NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING EXPECTED BUT THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN OR STREAM FLOODING.

41

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE FOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE POTENTIAL TO
AFFECT THE AREA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE TO CONTINUE RATHER
HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.

A MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT BUT STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID U.S. APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
IFR SLOWLY IMPROVING TO BKN030-040 BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MORE CONVECTION TO THE
FORECAST AREA. REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR ANY TIME BUT MOST
SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONVECTION DIMINISHING SOME OVERNIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10KT OR LESS AFTER 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF IMPROVING CEILINGS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  67  81  66 /  70  80  70  60
ATLANTA         81  68  80  67 /  80  80  70  60
BLAIRSVILLE     76  63  76  62 /  80  80  70  50
CARTERSVILLE    80  66  81  66 /  80  80  70  50
COLUMBUS        85  69  84  68 /  80  70  70  50
GAINESVILLE     81  66  79  65 /  80  80  70  60
MACON           86  67  84  67 /  60  60  70  60
ROME            80  66  81  65 /  80  80  70  50
PEACHTREE CITY  83  66  81  65 /  80  80  70  50
VIDALIA         89  70  87  68 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...17


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