Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 200540 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1140 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES SOUTHWEST
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF SOUTH TEXAS AS OF 11 PM CST. MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. SOME OF THE
COMPUTER MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT WE COULD SEE A BREAK OUT INTO
LOWER END VFR DURING THE 20/18Z THROUGH 21/03Z PERIOD. FOR NOW
HAVE INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR BY 08Z...WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR 17-18Z SATURDAY. SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY RETURN AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.

58

&&

.UPDATE...
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AS NORTH TEXAS REMAINS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW LOWERING
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL ADD SOME
PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
REGION...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

JUST A FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RED RIVER AS THE
UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS
BLANKET NORTH TEXAS AND WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW THOUGH A BIT OF SUNSHINE WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM WHERE WE ARE RIGHT
NOW DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND ON
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY SENSIBLE IMPACTS ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ACROSS THE AREA.

NEXT FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND AS A RESULT JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.

COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT THE BRUNT OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY WELL TO OUR EAST AND A
RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO. A VERY MILD CHRISTMAS IS IN
STORE AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY
USHERING IN WARMER AIR.

WILEY



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
WACO, TX              42  53  40  56  44 /   5   5   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             39  49  38  52  42 /  10   5   5  10  10
DENTON, TX            39  51  39  54  43 /   5   5   5  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          40  50  38  53  43 /  10   5   5  10  10
DALLAS, TX            40  52  41  55  45 /   5   5   5  10  10
TERRELL, TX           41  51  40  54  44 /  10   5   5  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         43  54  41  55  45 /  10   5   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            43  54  41  56  44 /   5   5   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  51  38  55  42 /   5   5   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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