Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
209
FXUS64 KFWD 241709 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1209 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through 00z Friday. As a surface high
currently centered over South Texas moves east, northwest winds
around 15 knots will veer to the north and northeast at 10 knots
or so after 00z Thursday and to the southeast by 06z. As a lee
side trough deepens overnight tonight into Thursday, winds will
become south-southwest at 15 knots 15-17z Thursday and some gusts
over 25 knots are likely. An upper level trough that currently
extends from northern Missouri south into Louisana will move
eastward while a ridge over New Mexico and Arizona will flatten
allowing the northwesterly flow aloft to become zonal on Thursday.
This will result in a continuation of mostly clear skies.

58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017/
A very cool morning for late May was underway due to a clear sky,
dry air and light winds. Temperatures at 3 AM were mainly in the
50s which will end up being record lows for this date in many
locations. A steady warmup is expected today with abundant sun
and adiabatic warming from a west to northwest wind. Afternoon
highs will warm into the 70s and lower 80s. However, it will feel
a bit cooler since wind speeds will increase once vigorous
boundary layer mixing commences.

A warming trend will begin tonight and increase on Thursday as
upper level high pressure builds over the state and low level warm
air advection becomes established. Afternoon highs on Thursday
will be considerably warmer than today and much more typical of
late May with mainly upper 80s and lower 90s. The western zones
will even reach the mid 90s as the dryline mixes in during the
late afternoon.

The warmup will continue into Friday even though the upper ridge
axis will shift to the Lower Mississippi Valley. The primary
root of the overall warmup will be increasing Gulf moisture ahead
of an approaching low pressure system. However, the return of the
dryline to the western zones will increase adiabatic warming in
the afternoon which should push some temperatures to the mystical
triple digits.

Even through large scale lift and mid level instability will be on
the increase Friday, mid level southwesterly flow (warm air) will
keep the a tight lid on any convection.

The low pressure system will translate east across the Rockies on
Saturday with the upper trough axis reaching West Texas by
afternoon. The atmosphere should remain largely capped across
North and Central Texas Saturday. However, the dryline will make
another run to the east in the afternoon and may be able to muster
up a few storms across the western zones before sunset.

The upper trough will move east across the state Saturday night
through Sunday and allow a cold front to move south across the
region. The front will become a focus for showers and storms with
the best chances on Sunday. Models have been fairly consistent
with moving the front south of the forecast area Sunday night and
stalling it out over South Texas on Memorial day. Therefore, some
elevated showers and storms will be possible across mainly the
southern zones Monday and Monday night.

Storm chances should return to the entire region on Tuesday as the
front lifts back to the north in response to another developing
low pressure system in the west. This low pressure system should
keep the weather unsettled as we move into early June.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  60  91  74  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                81  59  90  74  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               72  54  85  70  89 /   0   0   0   5  10
Denton              78  56  90  73  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            76  55  87  72  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              80  62  91  75  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             77  57  87  73  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           79  59  89  73  91 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              82  60  91  73  92 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       80  56  94  73  99 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

58/25



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.