Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 050248 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
848 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

SENT AN UPDATE TONIGHT SIMPLY TO MORE ACCURATELY REPRESENT THE FEW
AREAS OF MORE CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED VIRGA RAIN SHOWERS
APPROACHING OUR NW ZONES TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES NEAR
TERM MODEL CONSENSUS.      BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY
SET UP OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN
INTO THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...SOME AREAS COULD SEE RECORD OR
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY.

AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL FETCH MOISTURE FROM A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE...CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN SO BROUGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES EARLY FRIDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BUT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE
SHOULD DECREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

HICKFORD


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF/POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
OVER THE SW ZONES SO TRENDED GRIDS IN THIS DIRECTION. ALSO ADDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO WEATHER GRIDS FOR MONDAY EVENING AS CAPE OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS IN BEST AGREEMENT FROM
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS VERY LARGE CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION KEEPING ANY
NOTICEABLE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ON ITS NORTHERN EXTENSION
BARELY SNEAKING OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH A CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

FROM SUNDAY EVENING ONWARD...MODELS BEGIN TO FALL APART IN THE
OVERALL DEPICTION OF THE SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME. FIRST WITH THE
LARGE CUT-OFF LOW DISSOLVING AS IT MOVES NE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...SECOND WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE EC IS
ADVERTISING A MUCH WETTER PERIOD WHILE OTHER MODELS INDICATE A
SCATTERED THREAT OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. LEANED HERE A LITTLE MORE
TOWARD THE WETTER SOLUTION...BUT NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS THE EC BY
ITSELF.

EXPECT COMFORTABLE SPRING TIME TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT. BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS:
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

WX/WIND: NIL SIG THROUGH 21Z...THEN VERY ISOL THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED. LIGHT EAST WIND WILL SWITCH INTO THE SOUTHWEST POST
12Z. WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PROTON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



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