Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 261624
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
924 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Tue...

Update...

The main forecast remains on track as described below. Snow may
track a little further north however than prior expectations and
thus the Zortman area may see some of the steadier accumulations
tonight. After a closer assessment of 12z model guidance, will
make a determination of whether or not the Winter Weather Advisory
will need to be expanded with the afternoon package. Given
potential impacts to newborn livestock, even if accumulations are
just shy of criteria it may be a good idea to consider headlines
for this area. Maliawco

Previous Discussion...

Shortwave trof expected to swing through the Pacific Northwest
and into the Great Basin through the early part of the week. This
will keep colder temperatures in northeast Montana at least
through mid week along with periodic snow chances.

Front sliding south across the state this morning with light snow
falling to the north of the boundary. Some clearing has occured
around Glendive resulting in the formation of fog. This fog should
clear out as the front moves south.

Later this afternoon the front hangs up across southern Montana
and lingers through the night. A wave moving along the front
expected to develop a band of moderate snowfall through central
Montana. This band should spread into the southern portion of the
cwa overnight with several inches of snowfall possible. Model
agreement and confidence high enough to issue a Winter Weather
Advisory for Garfield and Petroleum counties. May need to expand
it eastward but confidence not as high for snow amounts in the
Yellowstone valley during the day on Monday.

Upper trof moves into Montana by Tuesday for continued potential
for light snow. Ebert


.LONG TERM...Tue night through Sun...

Beginning Tuesday night, overall model consensus has the main
upper-level low pressure trough sweeping through the Rocky
Mountains and northern High Plains regions. This will bring a
shift in the weather pattern with a more substantial NW flow
aloft and warming temperatures from the west and southwest into
our area in general.

From Wednesday night into Thursday morning, models are trying to
hint at the chance for some banded snowfall, which would be
confined to the NE and SW corners of our CWA. Probably would be
the result of some small scale disturbances embedded in the NW flow.
Otherwise, we can expect scattered or isolated chances of rain
and/or snow showers off and on across the area. Not expecting
much of an impact until model consensus comes together better,
from Friday onward.

Noticeable warming above freezing may not quite be realized at the
surface until Friday, but should remain in place through the
remainder of the forecast period.

BMickelson



&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR/VFR then VFR this afternoon/evening. MVFR Monday.

Synopsis: Weak system exiting this morning KSDY/KGDV with
fog/flurries. System moving in from the west will degrade
ceilings then visibilities Monday. TFJ

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Ice jams and high water levels continue on the Yellowstone River
with continued fluctuating river levels.

No new information came in today, so the assumption is that the
ice jams from yesterday are frozen in place.

With little change in runoff and melting of the ice jams expected,
the Flood Watch is in effect through Monday.

Later next week, things could change a bit as warmer air could
melt or move ice jams along.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM MST
Monday for Garfield...Petroleum.

Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for Dawson...Richland.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow


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