Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 310940
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
340 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL DRIVE LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...INCLUDING NORTHEAST
MONTANA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS WELL. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
850MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE INTO THE +23C TO +28C RANGE PER 00Z
ECMWF/GFS. THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE ALONG WITH
STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS AS
WELL. SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...SOME PLACES MAY SEE RH VALUES
AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT. WEST WINDS MAY REACH 10-15 MPH DURING PEAK
HEATING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT...AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MAY BECOME ELEVATED. RECENT RAINFALL MAY LIMIT THAT
POTENTIAL BUT THIS IS SOMETHING CERTAINLY WORTH CONSIDERING.

ON SUNDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING BY
ABOUT 5C COMPARED WITH SATURDAY...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE 80S TO
LOW 90S ACROSS THE CWA. THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE SHOULD ALSO
REINFORCE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WOULD INTERACT WITH A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT TO BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE RIDGE REBOUNDS SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE RIDGE BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

MORE WAVES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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