Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 290837

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
237 AM MDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast through Wed...

Synoptic Setup: A large trough runs southward through Manitoba and
into eastern Dakotas and the Upper Mississippi Valley. To the
west a large ridge runs northern from the Intermountain West into
the Pacific Northwest and up into British Columbia where it
crests over the Yukon Territory. This is creating an express-lane
of northern flow across the high plains of Alberta, eastern
Montana, and Wyoming.

Today through Tuesday: With the coldest air aloft having moved
off farther east, the ridge from the west slowly gaining control,
and cold air being pumped in at the surface, the atmospheric
profile has stabilized. This will lead to a steady temperature
trend and dry conditions with wind weakening throughout the
periods. GAH

.LONG TERM...Wed night through Mon...

Upper ridge will move east across Montana Wednesday and Thursday
which will bring warmer temperatures and mainly dry weather.

Shortwave trough and weak frontal system is expected across
Eastern Montana Thursday Night and Friday which could bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

GFS is slower than the ECMWF in moving the trough to the east
Friday Night. Will linger a chance of showers and thunderstorms
into Friday Night mainly in the east. Saturday looks mainly dry
with an upper ridge.

Sunday looks dry although models differ on flow aloft. GFS has a
ridge while ECMWF has SW flow aloft. Both models are pointing
towards an upper trough early next week with a good chance of




SYNOPSIS: A ridge moving in from the west will lead to stable and
dry conditions with excellent flying weather.

WIND: Northwest at less than 10 kts this morning... increasing to
10 to 20 kts this afternoon... then calming to light and variable





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