Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 230908
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
208 AM MST Mon Jan 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1055 PM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

Update issued to adjust temps/cloud cover wording for the area
based on movement of the high cloud shield coming off the Front
Range. Currently over the Tri State Region...temperatures are
ranging in the 20s with a light westerly flow. High cloud cover
is slowly increasing from the west and is beginning to slow the
downtrend in temps...especially for western areas at this time. Do
expect eastern locales to see some leveling off in the drop in
temps over the next couple hrs...as clouds continue to churn
east. Have made a few adjustments in overnight lows as a result.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 158 PM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

Upper level ridging is in place over the SW US and building east
into the Central Rockies. Subsidence and a deep dry air mass
within the eastern extend of this ridge extends across our CWA.
A strong upper low is off the Pacific Northwest coast with
diffluent flow between these upper level features over the Great
Basin.

Tonight-Sunday: Quiet period expected as upper level shortwave
ridge transitions over our CWA. WAA increases with south-
southwest low level flow (east of lee trough), and this will
result in above normal high temperatures. High clouds do increase
tonight and this could complicate cooling potential tonight and
warming potential Monday. It does appear that a period of clearing
should occur by the afternoon. Considering temps aloft, clearing
skies, and good mixing we may see highs into the mid 60s for some
locations and many locations at or over 60F. Impact of snow pack
should be diminished after another day of melting, though it was
still accounted for in latest forecast. Good mixing and increasing
gradient east of the surface low should also lead to another
ground of breezy-windy conditions Monday (gusts 25-35mph
possible).

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 207 AM MST Mon Jan 23 2017

High pressure builds off the western US during the extended period
with a trough axis in New England. Smaller troughs will rotate
around the larger trough and will remain well removed from the
forecast area through next week. Northwest flow aloft will dominate
the flow pattern across the central High Plains with the exception
of late Sunday, when a fast moving transverse wave briefly shifts
the winds westerly. Dry weather will prevail Thursday through Monday.

Temperatures will remain below average through Friday with a warming
trend expected to take shape as we head into the weekend. Highs will
be in the upper 30s on Thursday and Friday with middle 40s on
Saturday and lower 50s on Sunday. Lows will fall into the middle
teens Thursday night, with lower to middle 20s each night thereafter
through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1010 PM MST Sun Jan 22 2017

Conditions...VFR with mainly SCT-BKN200-250.

Precip/Wx....None expected.

Winds........For KGLD...W around 10kts thru 08z Monday. From 08z
Monday onward...SSW 10-15kts with gusts 20-30kts from 17z Monday
to 03z Tuesday. For KMCK...06z-11z Monday WSW around 10kts. 11z
Monday onward...SSE 5-15kts with gusts to 20kts 17z-2230z.

Low Level Wind Shear(LLWS)...02z-06z Tuesday 200@35kts.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JN



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