Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 301709
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1109 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS THE ONGOING LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL AND EXPECTED REDEVELOPMENT OF RAINFALL OVER
AREAS THAT ALREADY RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL LAST EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA INTACT
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THE BULK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY...TAKING THE
FAVORED AREA OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH IT OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION WITH NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WITH GENERALLY HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER WARMER
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AND DEAMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS HAPPENS...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE
MONDAY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS AGREEMENT IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON THIS GENERAL TREND BUT DETAILS ON TIMING
AND HOW MUCH THE THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN HAVE NOT YET BEEN
RESOLVED AT THAT TIME PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS ABOVE CLIMO POP IS
WARRANTED ON TUESDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
PRECEDE THE SHORTWAVE WITH SOME CONVECTION ENCROACHING ON THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS AOA020 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AOA100. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...WAH






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