Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 262342

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
542 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows a trough over the Northern Rockies.
Southeast of this trough smaller short wave troughs were beginning
to form over Colorado.  At the surface a dry line was extending
northwest from the southeast corner of Colorado toward Denver.

For the rest of the afternoon am expecting strong to severe storms
to move into East Central Colorado around 4 or 5 PM MT as the upper
level short wave trough approaches from the west.  As the trough
approaches, lift will increase along the dry line which will cause
some isolated to scattered storm development.  Due to the drier
environment and weaker lift south of the main short wave trough, do
not anticipate much storm coverage.  However these storms will be in
a much better environment to become severe.

CAPE sharply increases in a corridor east of the dry line until the
surface winds turn more to the southeast than south. Given the
proximity to the surface low, fairly low cloud bases, and 0-1km
shear on the low end for tornado development, cannot rule out the
possibility of a tornado.  This will mainly be a factor for Kit
Carson and Cheyenne counties in Colorado.  Further east into Kansas
the environment becomes more stable which should limit the potential
for tornadoes to form. Comparing conditions to SPC tornado stats
favor EF1 tornadoes.

Deep layer shear is even stronger than yesterday and CAPE is a bit
higher as well, so foresee a chance for hail up to baseball size
based on what happened yesterday.  Damaging winds will also be
likely with any storms that develop.

This evening storms will move east across the rest of the Tri-State
Area.  Am expecting a cluster of storms to remain north of Highway
24.  The main threat with these storms will be heavy rainfall due to
precipitable water values in the 90th percentile.  Don`t have quite
enough confidence to issue a watch at this time due to the storms
moving just fast enough to negate a flood threat.  Along and south
of Highway 24 elevated CAPE will form and may be strong enough for
severe storms to form.  If the elevated CAPE advertised is not
capped off, hail up to baseball size is possible.  The threat for
damaging winds should end by 9 or 10 PM local time.  This round of
storms should move east of the forecast area by midnight.

Another round of strong to severe storms will move in from the
northwest over the east half to third of the forecast area.  Am
anticipating this to be more of a line storms.  These storms will be
be along/behind a cold front moving through.  As with the storms
with the first round, if the elevated CAPE advertised is not capped
off hail up to baseball size is possible.  Due to the inversion in
place am not expecting straight-line winds with these storms.

Saturday the storms over the east part of the forecast area will
push east by mid morning.  During the latter part of the afternoon
the upper level trough axis swings over the west part of the
forecast area.  This will be enough for a few storms to develop, but
not expecting any severe weather to occur.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017

Saturday night-Sunday: Rain showers linger through the evening over
southwest portions of the CWA as the main trough axis moves
downstream of the area. Upper level ridge will build through Sunday
bringing drier conditions to the area. Temperatures will be near to
slightly below normal.

Monday-Tuesday: Cold front moves into the area during the day Monday
and becomes stalled with a northwest to southeast orientation across
the CWA. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Monday
night through Tuesday night.

Wednesday-Friday: Models do not have very good agreement for this
period. GFS and ECMWF differ in synoptic setup and timing of when
upper level ridging will eventually push east of our area. General
consensus is for this period to be wet with periodic chances of rain
and thunderstorms. Heaviest rain appears to be favored for the
eastern half of our area, coming Wednesday night and Thursday
morning. The forecast for this time frame is certain to change, but
will need to be monitored by future shifts since most models do
indicate an active period for this timeframe.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 542 PM MDT Fri May 26 2017

Thunderstorm activity should spread out of eastern Colorado
towards northwest Kansas and across southwest Nebraska. Better
coverage will tend to be towards the Nebraska state line, and
there is some question as to how strong (or severe) the activity
will be when it moves within the vicinity of the terminals. I
held off on introducing lower conditions in the first 6hr of TAF
for now. A cold front will move through tonight and we are still
looking at a period of low level wind shear and IFR stratus at
GLD. Most guidance shows improvement by midday (first at GLD), so
I try to stay optimistic. It is still possible that MVFR cigs
linger at KMCK into the afternoon.




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