Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 311124
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
725 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS TO THE COAST AND
STALLS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. SPOTTY SHOWERS DOTTED THE
LANDSCAPE...WITH SEVERAL SMALL SHOWERS CLUSTERED ALONG THE GRAND
STRAND. THE WEAK AND SHALLOW COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TO A DPL TO
AYNOR LINE AT SUNRISE AND WILL DRIFT TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST
BEFORE BASICALLY STALLING THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOMING
INTERTWINED WITH THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE
TURNED TO THE N BEHIND THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 70S TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ALONG THE COAST...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE COLUMN
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOPPING 2.25 INCHES.
FOR OUR INLAND LOCATIONS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO TOP
2.25 INCHES AND WILL BE HIGH INTO THE MID AND LATE EVE HOURS.
HOWEVER...SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SAT. IN ADDITION TO FRONTAL LIFT AND SURFACE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PIVOT ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA DURING THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVE HOURS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH BY TO OUR N
OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST...IN BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING AND A HOT RIDGE CENTERED
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN GENERALLY LEADS TO
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND WE ARE EXPECTING CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL CARRY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE CENTERED AROUND THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE.

HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL BE LOWERING THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WE
ARE EXPECTING LOWER HIGHS THAN ON THU. THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUD COVER AND WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION TODAY...HIGHS IN
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. SOME OF THE BEACHES
WILL NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO 90 TODAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE UP TO
100 TO 103 DEGREES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TYPICAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
JULY...LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED IN THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE HARD TO PICK OUT AT TIMES.
DAILY SEA BREEZE WILL MASK THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW AT NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
GENERATES THE SEA BREEZE. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER OR
JUST WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE COMBINATION OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE WORKING AGAINST CONVECTION.

THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP MOISTURE JUST OFF THE COAST ALL
WEEKEND...SOME OF WHICH WILL TRY AND MOVE ONSHORE FROM TIME TO TIME.
BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING WILL BE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS SAT...BEFORE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL NORTHWEST
PUSH IS ABLE TO MOVE THE MOISTURE A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE. WILL CARRY
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POP FOR SAT COMPARED TO SUN...THOUGH BOTH DAYS WILL
REMAIN IN THE CHC CATEGORY. IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A COUPLE
WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE AREA...ONE SAT AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER
ON SUN. THE PROBLEM FOR BOTH WILL BE THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF
MOISTURE. WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION IS ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE AND LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY/FRONT COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE
PASSAGE OF SUCH FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING MON INTO TUE WILL
BRIEFLY MAKE WAY AS 5H RIDGE TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE AS THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY...ALONG THE
COAST...SLOWLY DISSIPATES. PROXIMITY OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE
COAST AND PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WARRANTS CHC POP MON
WITH HIGHEST VALUES AT THE COAST.

RIDGING TO THE WEST EXPANDS EAST TUE INTO WED WITH MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN PRECIP CHANCES.
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MID LEVEL DRYING WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
CLIMO DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MS
VALLEY WED ERODES RIDGING ALOFT WHICH IS REPLACED BY TROUGHING WED
NIGHT INTO THU. DEEP MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL TROUGHING COMBINED WITH
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES AS THE PERIOD ENDS. ALTHOUGH HARD TO
TIME 7 DAYS IN THE FUTURE THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVE
ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION ON THU. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO TO END THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...RADAR WAS SHOWING SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND
ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
CWA AND STALL OFF THE SE COAST TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME THE
FOCAL AREA FOR CONVECTION. FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND THE
AREA...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IT
WILL IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS DIRECTLY. VFR EARLY TODAY WITH
SOME MVFR LATER IN CEILINGS AS CONVECTION FIRES UP. AS THE WEAK
FRONT CLEARS THE COAST LATER TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST WILL DRIFT N OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
DRIFTS TO THE COAST AND STALLS...REMAINING WEST OF THE WATERS. SW
TO WSW WINDS WILL DOMINATE...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS MORNING WITH A FRONT IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...UP TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS UP TO 4 FT WILL BE MORE COMMON LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A MAINLY WEAK 8 TO 10 SECOND SE SWELL WILL
PERSIST.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WEAK FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND WILL KEEP THE WIND FIELD LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE.
DURING THE DAY...AS THE SEA BREEZE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KT. AT NIGHT THE FRONT
WILL TRY AND MOVE OFFSHORE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...5 TO 10 KT. SEAS AROUND 3 FT SAT WILL RUN 3
TO 4 FT ON SUN.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FRONT STALLED JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST
MON MORNING WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY AS BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES
THE DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE. SOUTHWEST FLOW MON CONTINUE ON TUE
WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT...SLIGHTLY HIGH NEAR SHORE DUE TO SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 5 FT POSSIBLE
NEAR 20 NM IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE AND FULL
MOON WHICH OCCURS TODAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS 1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. THE
RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER TO
INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...PROBABILITY IS LIKELY. HOWEVER...THIS
CYCLE...EVEN THE BEACHES HAVE A SMALL RISK. HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS
ABOUT 800 PM AT THE BEACHES AND ABOUT 1030 PM IN DOWNTOWN
WILMINGTON. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IF COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RJD/MAC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD


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