Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 300323
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1123 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL
DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY MORNING. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AND PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND UPCOMING
WEEKEND. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRUOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK...WITH TYPICAL LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM MONDAY...A DECAYING FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS BEST SEEN WITH THE SFC DEWPOINT GRADIENT...AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE BELOW 700MB VIA MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FOR LOCATIONS
EAST OF I-95 CORRIDOR...ALL COMBINED WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING THAT WILL ALLOW FOR FEW-SCT CU TO SPORADICALLY
DEVELOP AS SEEN VIA LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY. AVBL CAPE IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS AS 1 WOULD EXPECT...BUT WITH PLENTY
OF NVA ALOFT VIA LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SUSTAINED CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT WILL BE DIFFICULT LET ALONE IT DEVELOPING TO BEGIN WITH.
THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH NO POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE
AGAIN RE-ALIGNED THE OVERNIGHT CLOUD FIELD BASED ON LATEST IR SAT
IMAGERY TRENDS. AS FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
PREVIOUS UPDATE AND INDICATE MID 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF
THE FA...LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EVENTHOUGH...THE
IMMEDIATE COAST HAS NOT EXPERIENCED A TRUE AIRMASS CHANGE AS A
RESULT OF THE FRONT STALLING JUST INLAND...TONIGHTS COASTAL LOWS
ARE STILL MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE THAN WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED
EACH NIGHT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...PRIMARY HEADLINES TUE/WED IS A RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...WITH A HIKE-UP IN RAIN CHANCES
LATE TUE AND WED AS A SHORT-WAVE ALOFT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS
AND FORCES A LEE SIDE TROUGH TOWARD THE COAST OF NE SC AND SE NC.
AN ISOLATED SHOT AT CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH A
MID- LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL NOT ERODE UNTIL CLOSE TO 00Z...SQUASHING
RAIN CHANCES MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY IN THE EARLY GOING...UNTIL
COLUMN WETTING ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AT ILM
WILL RESULT IN POTENTIALLY AROUND THE 5TH WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD
BY THE CLOSE OF TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH FLATTENS AND RETROGRADES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH MAY END UP BEING OUR TRANSITIONAL PERIOD
FROM A RATHER NORMAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO A LESS
ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND. FLATTER FLOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS THOUGH A DRY AFTERNOON
IS TOUGH TO FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND SEA BREEZE. THEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RAMP BACK UP SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AS IS USUALLY THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW
LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION BY DAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS MAY SLOW RISE
THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
LINGERING LOW CIGS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE VCSH ON TUESDAY.

EXPECT FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
VFR PREVAILS WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DECREASING TO AOB 5 KTS AND
FEW/SCT CIRRUS. WILL NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT ISOLATED AREAS OF PATCHY
LIGHT FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...FCST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING LOW CIGS WHICH COULD
CREATE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR...BUT OVERALL EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AOB 12 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR VCSH...THUS HAVE INTRODUCED INTO GOING
FORECAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1115 PM MONDAY...THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE TO REMAIN ALIGNED
NE-SW ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...
TONIGHT THRU TUE. THIS A RESULT OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF AXIS
REMAINING INLAND...RESULTING IN SW FLOW ALOFT PARALLELING THE SFC
BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED SW-NE OVER THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS.
LOOK FOR INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THESE OFFSHORE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BEYOND 20 NM OFF THE
COAST BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED STORM CROSS
INTO THE LOCAL WATERS VICINITY OFF CAPE FEAR. SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN AND WEAK TO MODEST GRADIENT TO YIELD SW 10-15 KT
WINDS...WITH FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT CLOSER TO 20 NM OUT. THE
IMMEDIATE OFFSHORE WATERS PARALLELING THE ILM COASTAL WATERS WILL
SEE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL RANGE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE. DOMINATE PERIODS WILL RUN 7
TO 8 SECONDS...THUS NEARLY BEING IDENTIFIED AS A PSEUDO SOUTHERLY
GROUND SWELL...WITH A LOCAL SW WIND CHOP ON TOP OF THIS PSEUDO
SWELL.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY MARINE CONDITIONS ON TAP
TUE/WED AS AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH SHARPENS AND INTERACTS WITH
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SW WINDS 10-20
KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET AND PERHAPS NEAR 5 FT
OUTER PORTIONS. SEAS A COMPOSITE OF SW WAVES 1-3 FT EVERY 4-5
SECONDS AND SE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7 SECONDS. A FEW TSTMS MAY
IMPACT THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND COULD PRODUCE GUSTS TO 40 KT
LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION
OF THE PERIOD AS WEST ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND PIEDMONT
TROUGH SHOW LITTLE VARIATION. SEAS WILL TEND TO AVERAGE 2 TO 4
FT...HIGHEST OFFSHORE. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT FETCH THE OCCASIONAL
5 FT WAVE MAY AFFECT THE OUTERMOST SECTIONS OF NORTHERN ZONES NEAR
FRYING PAN SHOALS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL



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