Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 250703

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
303 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

A surface trough near the coast will interact with tropical
moisture to produce a few showers and thunderstorms through
early Monday. Another weak front may bring a few showers on
Tuesday, followed by drier and cooler air through mid-week.
A warming trend will develop late week through next weekend
along with returning humidity.

As of 3 AM Sunday...A cold front that was progged to be moving
through our  area this morning at this time yesterday remains
well to the west. There remains a decent channel of moisture
from the southwest across the area. It appears the same elements
are in play for today as they were for Saturday. The moisture
will be more limited with a dry layer and decent inversion in
forecast soundings in the 700MB area. The front is once again
shown by guidance making a move to the east with the NAM less so
which is the solution I favor. Long story short, expect
convection once again in many areas favored moreso east of I95.
There was little in the way of severe weather Saturday and
expect a similar outcome today although activity that does fire
will have better downdraft cape values to work with. Interesting
scenario for early Monday morning as upper level jet dynamics
spawn some activity over the area. I opted to wait on a little
more consistency before adding pops for this time. No
appreciable changes to the temperature forecast. Extreme western
areas may see lower dewpoints especially late in the period if
the front does indeed make the expected progress.


As of 3 AM Sunday...Heating and marginal moisture may produce
a sea breeze shower Monday but Tuesday appears to offer better
chances of rain, as an upper trough axis brings short-wave
energy and deepening mositure late in the day Tuesday. Cool air
advection will follow this feature into early Wednesday and few
cool spots daybreak Wednesday may even dip into the very upper
50s. Expect lower dewpoints into mid-week as well, removing the
muggy edge to the air. Exceptionally dry air aloft will arrive.
No severe weather signatures in the cards for Monday/Tuesday and
low level winds will remain weak during this time frame. Tuesday
will be the warmest day with downslope wind flow ahead of a
short-wave passage late in the day.


As of 300 PM Saturday...Longwave 5h trough over the eastern
CONUS at the start of the period lifts east-northeast Wed.
Surface high building in from the north Tue will move overhead
Wed and off the coast by Thu. As the Bermuda High sets back up
Thu the pattern aloft will transition from flat/progressive flow
late Wed into Thu to weak, but strengthening 5h ridging over
the western Atlantic late in the week. Arrival of the 5h trough
will be accompanied by an anomalously dry airmass. Forecast
soundings drop precipitable water values under half an inch Tue
night into Wed. The exiting trough and then the building 5h
ridge will produce a significant amount of subsidence through at
least Thu which, combined with dry air, should keep the region
dry. Moisture starts to creep back in Fri as the surface and mid
level ridge setup in a more typical summer time location.
Moisture return may not be enough to support much more than
isolated sea breeze convection on Fri. Coverage will increase
Sat with both the sea breeze and the Piedmont trough becoming
more active. Temps early in the period will run about 5 degrees
below climo as an unseasonably cool and dry air mass builds in.
Development of return flow Thu will return temperatures to climo
late in the period.


As of 06z...All signs point to a challenging few hours for the
aviation community this morning. I have maintained IFR ceilings
for the inland sites beginning around 08 UTC. For the coastal
sites guidance is not quite as pessimistic so I went with MVFR
conditions. There could also be some MVFR BR in all sites. VFR
conditions should develop by mid morning. Expect another round
of showers and thunderstorms moreso across the coastal areas
this afternoon.

Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions possible in isolated
showers and thunderstorms for the coastal terminals Mon
afternoon and at all the terminals in isolated to perhaps
scattered convection on Tue.


As of 3 AM Sunday...Winds and seas are in a much more summer like
pattern this morning unlike this time last night when a strong low
level jet was in place. Currently a southwest flow of 10-15
knots is  in place with seas of 2-4 feet is being reported and
this should more or less continue through the forecast period.
Winds may actually drop a little more according to most
guidance. The southerly component should remain however as a
front well to the west will have a difficult time moving across
the waters. Seas will drop to a more narrow range of 2-3 feet.

As of 3 AM Sunday...Changeable winds this period but it won`t be
a problem since speeds will hold at 15 KT or less. A series of
weak cold fronts will bring N winds, with winds veering briefly
ahead of each front. Seas should hold in a 2-3 foot range this
period and likely closer to 2 feet, in a mix of weak SE swell
and light to moderate chop. Showers or a storm will impact
mainly the outer waters this period and mostly Monday and Monday

As of 300 PM Saturday...Northeast flow Tue following passage of
a cold front prior to the start of the period will continue
into Wed. Northeast flow starts a slow veering trend later Wed,
becoming easterly Wed night and ultimately southeast on Thu.
Gradient will remain weak for much of the period with speeds 10
kt or less. Exception will Tue night when a surge of cooler air
spreading down the coast pushes northeast flow close to 15 kt.
Seas will be around 2 ft through the period.





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