Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 230010
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
810 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FA TONIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST TO OFF
NJ-NY COASTS BY DAYBREAK. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU HAS PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATED SINCE THE LOSS OF THE DAYS HEATING. WILL BE LOOKING AT
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MIN TEMPS MASSAGED BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS AND AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. SHOULD SEE AN
INFLUX OF EVEN LOWER SFC DEWPOINTS LATE IN THE PRE-DAWN THU HOURS
...WITH SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA
UP TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY BREEZY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES
TODAY AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON BACK END OF POTENT MID
TO UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERALL VERY
DRY COLUMN IN PLACE BUT A BIT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE MAY SEE
SOME PASSING CLOUDS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES BUT OVERALL ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL WORK TO OFFSET THE CAA TO KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO 70
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH OVER THE LAND AFTER SUNSET.

ALTHOUGH THE SKIES WILL BE PERFECTLY CLEAR AND THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
LIGHTEN BUT WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THEY MAY LIGHTEN ENOUGH JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP OUT A BIT FURTHER BUT OVERALL EXPECT READINGS DOWN
BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A VERY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WILL CRAWL NORTHEASTWARD
SLOWLY...REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY. AN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ENCOUNTER A NARROW UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WEAKENED UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD UNEVENTFULLY FRIDAY EVENING. ASIDE
FROM SOME CIRRUS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
WILL REMAIN DRY.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A MOS
CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RUN 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...IN 2011, FARMERS ALMANAC CONDUCTED A POLL
OF THEIR READERS ASKING FOR THE DEFINITION OF "PERFECT WEATHER."
ALTHOUGH THE ANSWERS VARIED WIDELY...A MAJORITY DESCRIBED PERFECT
WEATHER AS TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A LIGHT BREEZE.
FOR THOSE OF US LIVING IN THE CAROLINAS, MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL
ALMOST EXACTLY MATCH THIS DEFINITION.

BROAD 500MB TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND AN EXPANDING RIDGE
OVER TEXAS...WILL FUNNEL COOL AND DRY CANADIAN AIR ON NW FLOW INTO
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW IS FAST...SO ANY
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...AND THE STRONGEST
OF THESE IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH ANY VORT
MAX...BUT THE SAT NIGHT IMPULSE WILL DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. LITTLE TEMP DIFFERENTIAL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT THE DRY AIR MASS WILL BECOME...EXCEEDINGLY...DRY
SUNDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING BELOW ONE-HALF INCH. LATE MONDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BE WEST OF US SAT-MON...WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MOIST ADVECTION ON RETURN FLOW. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED EVEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE
PRESENT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS MORE THAN CAN BE SAID
FOR SAT-MON. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE LARGE DIURNAL
RANGES THANKS TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. MINS WILL DROP BELOW CLIMO FOR THE WKND...WARMING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VERY LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND
PARENT UPPER LOW ARE SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...WITH
IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT WITH ONLY PATCHY GROUND FOG EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THURSDAY WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...TIGHTENED SFC PG TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS OVERNIGHT...AS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WATERS OFF THE NJ AND NY COASTS
BY DAYBREAK THU. WILL CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE NW-NNW WINDS 10-20
KT...WITH FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT MAINLY THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR
AND NORTHWARD. DECENT MIXING TO OCCUR WITH 20-30 KT WINDS JUST OFF
THE DECK AND OCCURRING ACROSS SSTS IN THE 70S. SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN
THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE
FEAR AND OFF WINYAH BAY. WIND DRIVEN WAVES TO DOMINATE THE SEAS
SPECTRUM...WITH AVERAGE PERIODS AROUND 4 SECONDS. AN EASTERLY 1
FOOT OR LESS GROUND SWELL AT 10-11 SECOND PERIODS REMAINS
IDENTIFIABLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...DROPPED PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT AS SEAS
OUT AT FRYING PAN HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. NW WINDS
WILL EASE UP A LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THE COOL DRY AIR
OVER THE WARMER WATERS ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL
KEEP WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW NEAR SHORE WITH A STRONGER
OFF SHORE NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BUMPY
FARTHER OUT IN STEEPER SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES. THE OFF SHORE NW
WINDS WILL KEEP LOWER SEAS AROUND 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND HIGHEST SEAS
IN OUTER WATERS...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SINK SOUTH TO THE
GULF COAST. THIS SPELLS SLOWLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 3 FT SEAS
THURSDAY DIMINISHING TO 1-2 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE WEST WILL
PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE WKND...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION IN SPEED OR DIRECTION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT...CAUSING JUST A BRIEF AND SLIGHT UPTICK IN
SPEEDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE NC COAST
MONDAY...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SO WINDS DROP TO 5-10
KTS...BUT CAUSING A DIRECTIONAL SHIFT TO THE E/NE AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS. SEAS THROUGH THE WKND WILL BE 1-3 FT THANKS TO THE
OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHEST EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FALL BACK TO 1-2 FT ON MONDAY AS THE WIND
SPEEDS EASE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...DCH/RGZ
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL





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