Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 250220
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1020 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING
THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIVES A SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 10:20 PM THURSDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

FAIR AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...AS DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF COAST UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO A-TYPICAL HOURLY
TEMPERATURE CURVES LATE TONIGHT...WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BEING
REALIZED PRIOR TO DAYBREAK OVER MANY LOCATIONS...AS CLOUDS AND
MIXING IMPACT RADIATIONAL NIGHT-TIME COOLING TRENDS AFTER 6Z.

WILL STILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG OUR COAST
BETWEEN 9Z-12Z/5AM-8AM...TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW SHOWERS WHICH MAY
SPRING FROM LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SHOWERS WOULD BE LOW-TOPPED...WHILE STEERING WINDS GUIDE THEM SSW
TO NNE...POTENTIALLY CLIPPING OUR COASTAL STRIPS AND THE CAPE FEAR
REGION AN HOUR OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF SUN-UP.

MINIMUM TEMPS TO SHOW A WIDE RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN INTERIOR SE NC ZONES...TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S OVER
THE REMAINDER OF OUR INLAND SITES...AND AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S
ALONG OUR IMMEDIATE COAST AND BEACHES. SSTS HAVE WARMED A FEW
DEGREE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND NOW MAINLY LOWER 60S INSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...FRIDAY CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC
IN THE SWODY2 WITH A "SLIGHT RISK" FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG OUR IMMEDIATE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER MINIMAL LOCALLY. A
DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...CROSSING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW
BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA DURING
FRIDAY AFTN...DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 80...DRIVES
SURFACE INSTABILITY OF 600-1000 J/KG...INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG THETA-E RIDGING DRIVEN BY A 30 KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ.

NORMALLY...THIS LEVEL OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WOULD PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT
FOR CONVECTION...POSSIBLY STRONG.

HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FEATURE...AND DRYING COMBINED WITH POSITIVE THICKNESS
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTN. THIS WILL WEAKEN MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PUT ON A LID ON ANY POTENTIAL STRONG
CONVECTION. THUS...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG UPDRAFT WITH
SOME HAIL OR A STRONG WIND GUST...BUT PEAK HEATING WILL NOT
CORRELATE WELL WITH BEST DYNAMICS ON FRIDAY...AND THUS THINK THE
SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE LOW. IN FACT...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS GOING
NORTH OF THE AREA...AND MOISTURE ADVECTION HAVING ONLY A SHORT
DURATION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...THE SC COUNTIES MAY NOT SEE MUCH
PRECIP AT ALL ON FRIDAY. HIGHEST POP WILL BE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...FALLING OFF TO SILENT BY NIGHT. MINS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO AS THE FRONT CROSSES LATE...AND WITH ONLY WEAK
CAA. EXPECT LOWS AROUND 60 AT THE COAST...MID 50S WELL INLAND.

BEAUTIFUL SPRING WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. 5H PATTERN
BEGINS TO TREND TOWARDS ONE OF HIGH AMPLIFICATION...WITH DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BULGING 5H HEIGHTS TOWARDS 580DM DURING
THE WKND. THIS WILL MAKE SATURDAY A WARM AND SUNNY DAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S...NEAR 80 AT THE COAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A PLODDING MID LEVEL LOW EJECTING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REMAINS THE FOCUS. WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE COUPLED
HERE.

THE MID LEVEL LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OR MAY RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS DRY AIR IS WRAPPED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH
THE MODELS CONSISTENCY IN SHOWING THIS FEATURE...WE COULD SEE
SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS SLOWLY ENHANCING THE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. ITS WORTH NOTING WPC HAS IN EXCESS OF THREE INCHES IN
PLACES FOR THE SEVEN DAY QPF. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...IT COULD
BECOME ONE OF THE WETTEST APRILS AT LEAST IN WILMINGTON HISTORY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A RADIATIONAL INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT...BUT
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND FROM THE SE-S DUE TO
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. THIS
SHOULD MITIGATE ANY DENSE FOG POTENTIAL...BUT PATCHY MVFR VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ATTM DUE TO INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY FOR MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS BY
08-10Z. ALL MODELS ARE HINTING AT LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS 08-10Z. DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND LITTLE LIFT
ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TOPPED AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
AT BEST. WILL INDICATE VCSH ATTM.

AFTER SUNRISE A MODERATELY POTENT VORT MAX ROTATES THROUGH AND
AFFECTS MAINLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SHOWERS EXPECTED BUT THERE IS
LOW CERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. BEST CHANCE OF OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE N OF A KLBT TO KILM LINE IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE
MONDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10:20 PM THURSDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW LIGHT WINDS THAT ARE
VARIABLE AT TIMES...WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. NO SIGNIFICANT
HAZARDS ON THE WATERS...BUT WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SE-S WINDS
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST FROM THE
WEST...WITH NO ADVISORIES PLANNED AS SEAS HOLD AT 3-4 FEET MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. WEAK SWELL IN SE WAVES AROUND 1 FOOT EVERY 8-9 SECONDS
WILL CO- MINGLE WITH GROWING SE-S CHOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND
DAYBREAK...BUT TSTMS NOT EXPECTED NEAR SHORE THROUGH 8AM FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST CREATE A PINCHED GRADIENT AND INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RISE TO 15-20 KTS FRIDAY
AFTN/EVE...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NW FRIDAY NIGHT AT AROUND 15 KTS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN AGAIN BUILD ACROSS
THE WATERS SATURDAY...WITH WINDS FALLING TO AROUND 10 KTS AND
BACKING SLOWLY FROM NW TO SW THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AS THE WINDS DRIVE WAVE
HEIGHTS UP TO 3-5 FT. THESE WILL FALL QUICKLY ON SATURDAY AS THE NW
WIND PUSHES HIGHEST SEAS OFFSHORE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EASING
SPEEDS...AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1-2 FT ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING AS
A STRONGER SYSTEM DEVELOPS WELL TO THE WEST. EXPECT A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF AROUND TEN KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER FROM
THE WEST. SIGNIFICANT SEAS INCREASE FROM A VERY MARGINAL 1-3 FEET
EARLY TO 3-5 FEET LATE WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC/REK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...MJC/REK/JDW/SHK




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