Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KILM 280600
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MEANDER NEAR THE COAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS OVER
THE WEEKEND. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND MAY AFFECT
THE CAROLINAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...OTHER THAN A SINGLE SHOWER NEAR
GEORGETOWN SC THE FORECAST AREA IS NOW CONVECTION-FREE. GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF FRONT JUST OFFSHORE WILL BE MAINTAINING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DRY WEATHER INLAND. HRRR
DROPS ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER 3Z...SO THIS COULD WELL BE IT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:

CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY FADING WITH THE SETTING SUN AND IS
NOW LIMITED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST.
NO LIGHTNING OVER LAND IS NOW IN EVIDENCE. THE FRONT REMAINS
STALLED JUST OFFSHORE AND WITH A RELATIVELY COOL NELY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE EXPECT THAT WE ARE DONE WITH STRONG CONVECTION FOR THE NIGHT.
HAVE DROPPED POPS FOR THE NEAR TERM...MAXING OUT AT 20 PERCENT FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES.

STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED JUST OFFSHORE...WITH COOL NE
WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE CWA. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN EXTENSIVE
TODAY AS EXPECTED...WITH ONLY PARTIAL BREAKS OF SUNSHINE LOCALLY.
THE COOL NE WIND COMBINED WITH THESE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT HIGHS FROM
REACHING MUCH OUT OF THE LOWER 80S...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BENEFIT OF THESE COOLER TEMPS HAS BEEN A LACK OF DEEP
INSTABILITY AND HENCE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP...AND WEAK
IN INTENSITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEAK SEA
BREEZE AND SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES INLAND...AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...UNLIKE THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL REMAIN WEAK...AND NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. WITH PWATS HIGH AND STORM
MOTION SLOW...SOME BRIEF AND ISOLATED FLOODING COULD OCCUR BENEATH
ANY STRONGER SHOWER HOWEVER. CONVECTION WILL WANE QUICKLY AFTER
DARK...AND A PRIMARILY DRY EVENING OVERNIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE COAST WHERE SHOWERS OVER THE
WATER MAY ADVECT TOWARDS SHORE...AND A 20 POP HAS BEEN MAINTAINED
FOR CONSISTENCY AND POTENTIAL.

LOWS TONIGHT WERE DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH
HAS PERFORMED WELL THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. HAVE BUMPED VALUES UP A BIT
FROM A STRAIGHT CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED STRATUS TONIGHT
HOWEVER...BUT LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 68 WELL INLAND...TO NEAR 72
ALONG THE GRAND STRAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE ALONG 30N...COUPLED WITH DRY
WEST FLOW AT AND ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL IMPART MID-LVL
INHIBITION THROUGH FRIDAY AND MUCH OF SATURDAY. FOR THIS REASON
POP VALUES WILL REMAIN FAVORED ALONG AND COASTAL INTERIOR. MAX
AND MIN TEMPERATURE VALUES THIS PERIOD WILL CLOSELY REPRESENT
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST. A FEW TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
INTO PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND OFFSHORE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
BUT OVERALL ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED COVERAGE ENVISIONED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE VERY WEAK
THROUGH THE  PERIOD AND MOST OF THE ATTENTION WILL PROBABLY BE
SWAMPED BY TROPICAL ENTITY ERIKA. OBVIOUSLY A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL BASE THE EXTENDED FORECAST SANS
THE VERY LOW TROPICAL PWS GRIDS ON THE WPC GRAPHICS PROVIDED AT
1800 UTC. BASICALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE AREA WITH
GOOD PRECIPITABLE WATERS...HOVERING JUST BELOW TWO INCHES.
MAINTAINED THE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH HIGHER VALUES
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS PER THE STANDARD MESOSCALE FORCING.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOKS CONSISTENT WITH MID AND UPPER 80S FOR
HIGHS AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL PERSISTS FOR AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH VCSH/VCTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE WITH RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS...WHICH COULD CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. AFTER DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AOB 12 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. A
WIND-SHIFT TO THE EAST WILL OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...LATEST OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS RIGHT
AROUND 3 FT WITH MOSTLY NELY WINDS. SEAS AT 41110 DID MAKE IT UP
AROUND 4 FT AS SOME NEARBY SHOWERS KICKED UP THE WINDS A BIT. THE
COLD FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY AND MOSTLY EAST OF THE WATERS.
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE NO CHANGES WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OFFSHORE SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
A FEW SHOWERS AS WELL AS VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH IS LOCATED SOUTH OF NEARLY ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT
AMZ256...ARE NE AROUND 10 KTS. ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXIST WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS. THIS FRONT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH BUT MAY WAVER BACK AND FORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO WIND SHIFTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT FORTUNATELY SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE WEAK...WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 2-4 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS...THANKS PRIMARILY TO AN 10-11 SEC SWELL OF 2-3
FT THAT REMAINS IN THE SPECTRUM. THE NE WINDS ATOP THIS SWELL WILL
AT TIMES CREATE A SOMEWHAT CONFUSED SEA STATE...BUT THE SWELL WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...NE WINDS TO START THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSES SOUTHWARD FROM THE VIRGINIAS...AND A FRONT REMAINS
OFFSHORE. MARINE TSTMS MAY ERUPT AGAIN INTO EARLY FRIDAY ALONG THE
FRONT AND COULD APPROACH CAPE FEAR OR IMPACT THE 0-20 NM WATERS.
THE SC WATERS WILL REMAIN FAVORED FOR THE MOST COVERAGE. NO WAVE
HEIGHT INCREASES OF SIGNIFICANCE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA...BUT MAY BY LATE SUNDAY A FOOT OR TWO. SEAS
THIS PERIOD ESE 2-3 FT EVERY 10-11 SECONDS WITH A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NE CHOP. LATE SATURDAY WIND DIRECTION MAY VEER TO SE AS
THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND MOVES OFFSHORE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH ALL LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE EQUATE TO VERY WEAK WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEEDS LATE IN THE PERIOD
(TUESDAY) AS TROPICAL ENTITY ERIKA MOVES CLOSER WITH THE
DISCLAIMER MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. SHOULD SEE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH AN INCREASE TO 10- 15 KNOTS TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
HAVE DECENT AND VARIOUS SWELL COMPONENTS FROM CURRENT AND PREVIOUS
TROPICAL SYSTEMS AND WILL BE 2-4 FEET SUNDAY AND MONDAY INCREASING
SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/JDW
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/SGL


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.