Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 231500
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1057 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING COOL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND
WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY DAY ON TAP.
CONTINUED DEEP NW FLOW ON THE FRONT END OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
DOWN FROM THE N-NW. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK END OF DEEP LOW OFF OF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH OVERALL DEEP DRY COLUMN. PCP WATER
LEVELS BASICALLY BELOW A HALF INCH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONLY A BIT
OF MOISTURE SHOWING UP IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AS SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS STREAM OVER AREA IN W-SW FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
OVERNIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD. THEREFORE ANY GUSTY NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
DECOUPLE AS SUN SETS THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN
TO MODIFY BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH UP CLOSE TO 70 UNDER
BRIGHT OCTOBER SUNSHINE. A BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP DROP TO 4O TO 45 DEGREES MOST PLACES...WITH SOME 30S IN
TRADITIONALLY WIND SHELTERED OR COOLER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
FRI AS STACKED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HEADS TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. SHORTWAVE HAS ALMOST NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
DUE TO PROLONGED DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...EVIDENCED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WELL UNDER HALF AN INCH. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AROUND 500 MB WHICH MAY MANIFEST AS SOME CLOUDS
AS THE WAVE PASSES BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WEAK
FRONT TRAILS THE SHORTWAVE LATER SAT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS
CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARIES WAKE. HIGHS NEAR CLIMO FRI WILL CLIMB ABOVE
CLIMO SAT ON THE BACK OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...SUBSIDENCE...AND SUBTLE
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. LOWS RUN BELOW NORMAL FRI NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED SAT NIGHT SO DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND DEEP DRY AIR
MIXING WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL COMPLETE THE
TRANSITION FROM AMPLIFIED TO ZONAL SUN AS DRY FRONT EXITS THE
REGION. PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE SURFACE HIGH WEST OF THE
AREA ON SUN OVERHEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST TUE. HOWEVER THE DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP THE COLUMN
DRY. ABUNDANT DRY AIR WILL LIMIT CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...AND ALL BUT RULE OUT PRECIP. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS TUE WITH SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE. MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EAST TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
SOUTHWEST. DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO.
SUBSIDENCE AND AMPLE SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD COMBINED WITH
RETURN FLOW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS
ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH WED. LOWS START OUT BELOW CLIMO...WITH DEEP DRY
AIR AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TUE WILL PUSH LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD CONTINUES. NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...ALL PRECAUTIONARY HEADLINES DROPPED BY
MID MORNING. AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...GRADIENT
WILL RELAX. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS OVER WATERS NORTH OF CAPE
FEAR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO WILL SEE SOME GUSTIER WINDS IN
WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT AS COOL AND DRY AIR MOVES OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. OVERALL EXPECT WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT WITH A DOWNWARD TREND IN
DIMINISHING NW-N OFF SHORE FLOW. AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT...A SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD UP TO 10 SEC NORTHERLY SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO DOMINATE OVER THE THE SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
FRI...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW. GRADIENT WILL BE OF LIMITED
STRENGTH WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MAY KICK UP NORTHWEST WINDS A BIT FOR
SAT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED WINDS POSSIBLE LATER SAT NIGHT
AS DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15
KT THOUGHT THE PERIOD...THOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT. SEAS START OUT AROUND 2 TO 3 FT BUT DROP TO 1 TO 2 FT BY
MIDDAY AND REMAIN 1 TO 2 FT INTO SAT BEFORE INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW
SAT NIGHT CAUSES SOME 3 FT SEAS NEAR 20 NM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW PEAKS AROUND 15 KT EARLY SUN
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS DURING THE DAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NC COAST. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING MON WITH SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 1 TO 3 FT ON SUN SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FT BY MON MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL











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