Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 251047
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
644 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK BRINGING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE EACH
DAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. DRY BUT HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS FORECAST
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND MID CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE AREA JUST AFTER SUNRISE. THE COVERAGE OF STRATOCUMULUS WAS
VERY PATCHY.

THE FORECAST REMAINS ONE OF PERSISTENCE. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CREST ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY WITH
ITS AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN ITS ORIENTATION
AS IT RIDGES BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THROUGH TONIGHT AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUD COVER. STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS
ATOP THE MIXED LAYER TODAY AND THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE PROFILES ALSO SHOWING MORE IN
THE WAY OF HIGHER CLOUDS AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

SOME OF THE MODELS ARE PORTRAYING THE EASTERN EDGE OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION BRUSHING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE PORTRAYING NIGHTTIME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND THEN MOVING ONTO THE COAST LATE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DO INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF
INLAND AND AN INCH ON THE COAST DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
DISTRIBUTION OF THIS MOISTURE...EVEN INLAND...WHERE THE MOISTURE IS
GREATEST AND DEEPEST...SHOWS A GREAT DEAL OF DRY AIR PERSISTING IN
THE MID LEVELS. AT THIS TIME...WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING EVEN
SMALL POPS ANYWHERE...BUT WILL SHOW THEM INCREASING TO NEAR
THRESHOLD ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE REGION OF SC.
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING OCEAN SHOWERS
ADVECTING ONTO LAND SOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND THEN
RIDING UP TO OUR SW AND W AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
HIGH. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A FEW OF THESE FAST
MOVING SHOWERS WILL SKIRT COMMUNITIES ALONG AND W OF A CKI TO UDG
LINE THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SE...10 TO 20 MPH. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS A LITTLE TIGHTER TODAY AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY
SO WOULD EXPECT WINDS WILL GUST HIGHER MORE FREQUENTLY. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE MID 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.  THE
DIURNAL CURVE WILL FLATTEN ONCE THE BEACHES REACH THE UPPER 70S LATE
THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE LATE NIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH THE BEACHES AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS INCREASING HUMIDITY INTO MID-
WEEK. ALTHOUGH NOT EXACTLY A TEXTBOOK BERMUDA-HIGH
PRESSURE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST
WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINES WITH AN
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVING EAST...TO PRODUCE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND SHOWER CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE TUESDAY WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY THANKS TO A
SUBSIDENT INVERSION AND VERY DRY MID-LEVELS...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RAMP UP WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY WHERE PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 1.9 INCHES...BUT
EVEN THERE ONLY SCHC POP IS WARRANTED...WITH SOME LOW-END CHC
DARLINGTON/MARLBORO/ROBESON COUNTIES. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
DIURNALLY FORCED.

TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO WITH WIDESPREAD MID-TO-UPR
80S...LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 70 AT
THE COAST...MID 60S WEST OF I-95.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...CONTINUATION OF THE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FOR
THE EXTENDED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPINS OFFSHORE AND RIDGES BACK
TOWARDS THE COAST. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY PEAK THURSDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND PWATS APPROACH 2 INCHES...BUT
ONCE AGAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIP WILL BE THE INLAND HALF OF
THE CWA. FRI-SUN...RIDGE RE-AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ALTHOUGH
NOT QUITE TO THE EXTENT AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE LOW-
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BLOSSOMS FURTHER AND DRIVES 850MB TEMPS TO
AROUND 16C. SO...WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE INTO THE
WKND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WITH WIDESPREAD 90S LOOKING MORE
LIKELY FOR NEXT WKND...ALTHOUGH BEACH COMMUNITIES WILL BE A SOLID 10
DEGREES COOLER. WITH THE SUBSIDENT RIDGE IN PLACE PREVENTING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT CONTINUED ADVECTION OF HIGH DEWPOINT AIR...IT
MAY BEGIN TO FEEL PRETTY UNCOMFORTABLE AROUND THE AREA NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AN EARLY SUMMER BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP THINGS IN CHECK
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY SCATTERED CUMULUS WITH A THIN
BROKEN CIRRUS CEILING ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION WITH FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
FOG EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING...WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS TUE THROUGH FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM MONDAY...SE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
A BERMUDA RIDGE HOLDS SWAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10
TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN STEADY...3 TO 4
FT. A WEAK 8 TO 9 SECOND E TO ESE SWELL WILL CONTINUE.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE CREATES RATHER CONSISTENT CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...WINDS WILL BE SE OR SOUTH WITH ONLY MINOR
FLUCTUATION...AND SPEEDS NOT DEVIATING MUCH FROM 10-15 KT. THESE
WINDS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS TO 2-4 FT...WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION
FROM A 7-8 SEC SE GROUND SWELL INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK TOWARDS THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS PRODUCES A WEAK GRADIENT...AND SE WINDS BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY ON FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF ONLY AROUND 10 KT. THESE
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CAP WAVE HEIGHTS AT 2-4
FT...WITH A SE GROUND SWELL AND WEAK WIND WAVE COMPRISING THE
SPECTRUM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43


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