Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 251416
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1014 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will expand across the Carolinas, bringing
uncomfortable levels of heat and humidity this week. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon
and evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 10 AM Monday...As is usually the case in such quiet weather
there are no changes to the forecast at this time. The 12Z WRF has
come in supporting the idea of a dry forecast, while the HRRR shows
what will likely be non-measurealbe QPF along the sea breeze.

A massive, persistent and very dry ridge aloft will continue to
contribute to above normal levels of heat today. At the surface
the Bermuda high will continue to dominate, bringing a very moist
and hot south to southwesterly flow to the region for today and
tonight. Temperatures will again climb above normal, with highs in
the mid 90s most locations and in the lower 90s near the coast.
With dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s we can expect heat indices
this afternoon to range from 100F to 104F. Bone-dry upper levels
and a lack of sufficiently strong forcing will greatly limit
development of convection today. The best we can expect is the odd
sea-breeze forced pop-up shower or thunderstorm focused along the
sea breeze boundry. However, consider coverage will be too sparse
to warrant mentionable pops.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Monday...A hot and humid airmass will continue to
dominate the eastern Carolinas as a broad, flat ridge prevails aloft
and the Bermuda high persists at the surface. A thermal trough will
strengthen each afternoon over the central Carolinas. Both days will
feature afternoon heat index values approaching or exceeding 105F,
and it is likely that heat advisories will be issued for at least
portions of the forecast area on both days. For Tuesday, very dry
air aloft and lack of strong forcing will limit convective coverage
to very isolated storms during the afternoon and early evening,
primarily along the sea breeze front and near the inland thermal
trough. Somewhat greater convective coverage is possible on
Wednesday and Wednesday night as slightly deeper moisture may be
advecting in.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM Monday...Deep ridge of high pressure will slip
farther to the east and weaken as the weekend approaches. This
will allow h5 heights to slip and temps to lower slightly, as
well as, reduce the subsidence and dry air aloft giving way to
increased chance of shwrs/tstms heading into the latter half of
the weekend and early next week. A broad northern stream mid to
upper trough will reach down from the Upper Great Lakes pushing a
cold front east into the Carolinas by Sunday. This will help to
tighten the gradient flow and increase SW winds, and, also produce
deeper moisture and greater support for more widespread
convection heading through the latter part of the weekend into
early next week. Initially expect only isolated convection along
sea breeze front and Piedmont trough Thurs and Fri. Then pcp water
values increase back up above 2 inches late Sat into early next
week. Temperatures in the mid 90s on Fri will drop down slowly,
aided also by increasing clouds and convection. Heat indices will
remain high in a very humid air mass, and should reach above
advisory criteria Thurs and possibly Fri aftn.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 12Z...A ridge of high pressure extends over the Carolinas.
A few showers along the coast early this morning should dissipate
as the morning progresses. Expect light SW-WSW winds to back to the
SE-SSW as the morning progresses, highest wind speeds 10-15 KT in
the afternoon at the coastal terminals. Convection could develop
along the sea breeze boundary and along the piedmont trough inland,
but with dry air in the mid-levels and lack of an upper impulse do
not expect support for more than isolated convection. Have added
VCSH coastal terminals 16-20Z but confidence is low.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon convection
through Friday may create periods of MVFR/IFR. Otherwise expect
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 6 AM Monday...No changes to the forecast with the latest
update. Previous discussion follows:

There will be little change over the waters through the near
term. The Bermuda High over the western Atlantic will keep winds
primarily from the SW at 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts, with
seas of 2 or 3 ft today and tonight. Winds will be mainly
southerly this afternoon near shore and gusty as the afternoon
sea-breeze circulation sets up.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Monday...High pressure over the western Atlantic
will continue to keep winds from the S to SW at 10 to 15 kts
through the period, with seas of 2 or 3 ft. Expect gusts up around
20 kts each day.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM Monday...Bermuda high pressure and the piedmont
trough inland will maintain the south to southwest flow through
the period. Gradient flow will increase out of the SW heading into
the weekend and persistent S-SW flow 10 to 15 kts will increase
slightly into the weekend as gradient tightens. The winds will
back and increase slightly each aftn due to sea breeze and
piedmont trough inland. Seas will basically remain in the 2 to 4
ft range.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$ SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MBB/REK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR


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