Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
FXUS62 KILM 241731
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1231 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017
Cool high pressure today will bring milder air Wednesday as
it builds north into the area. A cold front Thursday will
bring showers, followed by chilly sunshine and crisp nights
Friday through the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1202 PM Tuesday...Batch of cumulus sailing SE across our
NE quarter warrants an adjustment to sky cover and a trim of
maximums by a degree or 2. No other notable changes needed at
this time. The previous forecaster discussion follows.
Glittering and cool conditions in wake of a departing potent
system, with robust NW flow depicted in the KLTX VWP this
morning. Insolation and downslope winds despite the coolness,
should help boost maximums into the lower and middle 60s this
afternoon, which is slightly above normal for late January.
Widespread 40s on tap overnight for mins.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...Progressive weather features at all
levels to occur this period. Upper and sfc ridging will extend
across the FA from Florida and the Bahamas at the start of this
period. Both are progged to slide off the East Coast and well
offshore by Wed evening. With WAA occurring during Wed with peak
850 temps reaching 14 to 16 degrees Celsius. This will result
in max temps for Wed in the upper 60s to low to mid 70s away
from the immediate coast. Unfortunately, this will be short-
lived as a cold front is slated to push SE across the area,
commencing during the late pre-dawn Thu hrs thru the mid to late
daytime morning Thu. Models have now increased the moisture
profile immediately ahead of this cold front, with enough
forcing and convergence to produce showers in the 20 to 40 POP
range. Could not go hier given no big time tapping of avbl
moisture sources prior to reaching the FA. After the CFP, cool
high pressure will ridge in from the west under excellent CAA as
850mb temps after their earlier peak, are progged to drop back
to between 0 and -3 degrees Celsius by Friday daybreak.
Fortunately, the W to WNW downslope trajectory winds off the
Appalachians will delay the full effects of the cold air until
nightfall Thu. Max temps Thu could surpass 70 degrees across
most locations, highest closer to the immediate coast.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...The extended forecast period will quickly
remind us that it is, in fact, the winter season. With a recently
passed cold front on Thursday, a colder, more seasonable airmass
moves into place for the weekend and early next week. Latest
guidance continues to illustrate an impressive upper longwave trough
that will encompass much of the eastern half of the conus beginning
Friday. A few shortwaves will bring punches of even colder air,
allowing for temperatures to drop below normal at times, with
a dry cold front pushing through at the beginning of next week.
Overall a fairly dry period as moisture remains limited, with
plenty of sunshine during the day and high temperatures in the
upper 40s/low 50s. Overnight lows will dip into the lower 30`s
and with these freezing temperatures in store, don`t forget to
be mindful of outdoor animals.
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 18Z...Surface low pressure will continue to move away from
the area with weak high pressure building in tonight. Expect VFR
conditions throughout the period with only gusty winds and brief
BKN to OVC convective ceilings this afternoon.
Extended outlook...Expect mainly VFR. A CFP slated early Thu
may provide brief MVFR conditions from isolated to scattered
showers prior to it`s passage.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1202 pM Tuesday...SCA all waters thru 6 pm today.
A tightened sfc pg will remain across the area today as the
upper and accompanying sfc lows move further up the East Coast,
further away from the local waters. Looking at gusty WNW to NW
winds at 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt early across the ILM
NC Waters. Upper and sfc ridging will extend from the south
late tonight with some relaxing of the sfc pg to occur. Winds
should finally diminish below SCA thresholds during this aftn.
Significant seas initially will run 4 to 7 ft ILM NC waters and
3 to 6 ft ILM SC Waters thru this morning, followed by a
subsiding trend this aftn to between 3 and 5 ft. With winds
diminishing further tonight, sig. seas will follow a similar
route. However with a SSE, 10 second period, 2 to 3 foot ground
swell affecting the local waters this period, it will prevent
the overall sig. seas from subsiding too quickly if it`s make-up
was purely wind driven waves.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...Wednesday will feature WAA occurring
under SW winds. With cool SSTS, the hier winds just off the deck
will likely not mix or be realized at the ocean sfc. As a
result, looking at SW increasing to 10 to 20 kt during Wed ahead
of the approaching cold front, and could briefly reach 15 to 25
kt Wed night. The CFP will occur during daytime morning Thu
followed by high pressure ridging in from the west. The sfc pg
will remain tightened Thu into Thu night and combined with
eventually CAA late in the day and night, the W to NW winds will
reach SCA thresholds. Significant seas will become and remain
heightened this period, initially from SW wind driven waves Wed
thru early Thu, and from a much shorter fetch due to W to NW
wind driven waves. Will need to monitor any long period ground
swells that could affect the local waters this time period which
may have a bearing on whether SCEC or SCA thresholds will be
met. Wavewatch3 indicates this possibility.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...West-northwest winds will prevail behind
a recently passed cold front on Friday and Saturday, with
sustained winds around 15 to 20 kts. Expect mainly 3 to 4 ft
seas on Friday with 5 fters moving into the outer waters on
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ250-