Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 282009
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
309 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

ALTHOUGH ITS CENTER WILL MOVE ALL THE WAY FROM CANADAS YUKON
TERRITORY TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTROL INDIANA WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY A WARM FRONT IS PREDICATED TO DEVELOP OVER OUR STATE. EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO
CROSS INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

THE MAIN QUESTION IS SKY COVER. THE MODELS ALL AGREE IT WILL BE
DRY...AND ARE ALL CLOSE WITH THE TEMPERATURE FIELDS.

SATELLITE SHOWED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WERE
PULLING AWAY AND SHOULD BE GONE BY EVENING. THE TIME OF CLEARING
WILL BE CONTROLLED BY WHAT HAPPENS TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THESE ARE ALREADY DISSIPATING NEAR INDIANAS WESTERN
BORDER...GENERALLY WHERE 925 MILLIBAR HUMIDITIES ARE LESS THAN 70
PERCENT. IF 70 PERCENT PERSISTS AS THE CLOUD BOUNDARY THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL CWA SHOULD GET RID OF LOW CLOUDS BY 06Z. THE SOUTH COULD SEE
A LOT OF CLOUDS INTO THE MORNING.

WITH AN INVERSION PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AND THE GROUND MOIST...WE
COULD GET LIMITED CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE SKY COVER FORECAST IS GOING TO REFLECT THE ABOVE THINKING.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE AND LOOK REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE DETERMINISTIC THERMAL
FIELDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS WHETHER TO GIVE ANY CREDENCE TO THE LOW CHANCE
POPS THE MET HAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

THE ANSWER IS NO AND THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY. THE MET POPS
PROBABLY REFLECT THE SMALL QPF THE NAM HAS FOR THE CWA. THE
EUROPEAN...GFS...AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE ALL HAVE NO QPF SO THE NAM
IS QUITE AN OUTLIER. GIVEN EVEN IT DOESNT HAVE MUCH PRECIPITATION
DRY WEATHER IS THE BEST BET.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHOVING IN...THERE OUGHT TO BE A SMALL AMOUNT OF
LIFT RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY
ITSELF IS APT TO BE CLEAR GIVEN THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BETTER
ESTABLISHED AND THE AIR IS LIABLE TO BE QUITE DRY.

THE DETERMINISTIC THERMAL FIELDS ARE VERY CLOSE BETWEEN THE MODELS.
GIVEN THAT...THE MAV WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE BEST TEMPERATURES BY
VIRTUE OF ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT CYCLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 152 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

FOCUS IN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO
IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA DURING MAINLY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXACT TIMING DEPENDS ON THE MODEL. THE EURO MOVES THIS
SYSTEM INTO THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF
UNTIL LATER FRIDAY EVENING. THEN THE EURO DRYS OUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE GFS STILL HAVE POPS REMAINING. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION A GOOD BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS...SO DID NOT NEED TO MAKE TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE QUICKLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE MISSOURI VALLEY. THEN LIKELY POPS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT THAT REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS TRENDING TOWARD MATCH NICELY.

CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPE IS STILL LOW UNTIL THE EXACT TRACK BECOMES
SOLIDIFIED...BUT IT/S LOOKING LIKE SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN/SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE REMAINING
TWO-THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/21Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 309 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED EXCEPT AT HUF. SATELLITE SUGGESTS HUF STILL
UNDERNEATH THE LOW CLOUD DECK...BUT THIS MAY BE AN ARTIFACT OF
PARALLAX ERROR. OB IS NOT FLAGGED SO BELIEVE IT IS GOOD. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 1213 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ABOUT 4-5 HOURS LONGER THAN
EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR SITE KHUF WHICH HAS ALREADY SAW SOME
SCATTERING OUT IN THE LOW LEVELS. THEN ALL SITES IMPROVING TO VFR
CATEGORY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. (EARLY EVENING FOR SITE KBMG WHICH
IS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.) AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE AREA...CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT FURTHER LATE IN TAF PERIOD AND
REMAIN AT VFR CATEGORY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND LIGHT AT 2 TO
6 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF/NIELD

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