Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 131945
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE COLD DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE
PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY TOMORROW THOUGH AS A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE
UPPER FLOW AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA. THE FIRST WILL ENTER THE AREA
ON SUNDAY...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A SECOND WAVE ON MONDAY. TOTAL
SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THESE DISTURBANCES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES. THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AFTER THAT WITH
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...BUT
SOME RAIN MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
KEEP TOTALS LOWER OVER THOSE COUNTIES. FURTHER OUT...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 958 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO NEAR TERM MAINLY TO TRIM BACK
AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS A LITTLE TO MAINLY DELAWARE AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES
AND TO RAISE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE SOUTH GIVEN LOTS
OF SUN AND RECENT HOURLY MODEL DATA.  OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES.

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW
TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND RIDGING TO THE
WEST. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY TOPPING OFF IN THE TEENS/LOW 20S. THESE
NUMBERS COMBINED WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILLS THROUGHOUT THE DAY OF -5 TO -15 DEGREES.

THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS IS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DECENT FETCH OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL THOUGH AND
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SAT 18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FARTHER INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 323 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE FIRST OF TWO
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

FIRST...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND AMPLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE VERY COLD ONCE
AGAIN WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THOUGH BY TONIGHT...SO WIND CHILLS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO. PLUS...CLOUDS WILL
START INCREASING LATE IN THE NIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE A TAD WARMER /LOW
TEENS/ OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS A RESULT OF THIS INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ENTERING THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA BETWEEN SUN 09-12Z AS UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE DURING THE SUN 18Z-MON 00Z TIME FRAME...WHICH IS
WHEN HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL. DRY AIR QUICKLY
INFILTRATES THE AREA AFTER MON 03Z THOUGH...SO TAPERED POPS TO
JUST CHANCE AFTER MON 06Z.

AFTER A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY ON MONDAY...A SECOND WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE NORTH AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
SOUTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL VARIABILITY IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH
WITH EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND THIS WILL MAKE A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES PROFILES WHICH WILL IN TURN
DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THUS HAVE PLAYED TOWARD A MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTION IN TERMS OF A MIX IN THE SOUTH INITIALLY
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT QUICKLY AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA TO PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
START WARMING ON THURSDAY INTO THE 40S AND FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE 50S
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WARM
MOIST FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND KEEP CHANCES IN UNTIL AFTER THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 231800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1154 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY. VFR WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH
IT. SOME INDICATIONS RESTRICTIONS COULD BE WORSE AFTER 18Z SO
BROUGHT IN IFR AT KIND STARTING THEN BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL
NEXT ISSUANCE TO CONSIDER FOR OTHER SITES. WINDS WILL PICK UP
DURING THE MORNING TO AROUND 10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP


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