Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KIND 231930

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
330 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016


The Synopsis, Near Term, and Short Term sections have been
updated below.


Issued at 330 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2016

A broad ridge of high pressure remains in place across much of the
country, with a hot and humid airmass across central Indiana. This
heat will last through tomorrow, before a cold front approaches
the area and allows a slight cool down back toward seasonal
normals and brings slightly higher thunderstorm chances to the


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2016

With some indication that the cumulus field across the area has
been a bit congested at times, will maintain a 15 pop for
potential isolated pop up storm through 23Z. Otherwise, will keep
things dry until late tonight, introducing low pops across the
north after 09z as some development may occur on old boundaries to
our northwest and move into the area late.

Temperatures should be similar to last night, and consensus
numbers handle this well. Likely some fog late but will leave to
evening shift to decide if the visibilities will merit a mention
in the grids.


.SHORT TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Frontal boundary will finally begin to approach the area late
Sunday. Will need slight chance or low chance pops across the area
tomorrow, ramping them up Sunday night into Monday as the front
moves through the area.

Don`t see anything beyond a pulse severe threat at any time during
the period, as dynamics will be weak.

Concern for tomorrow will be another day of heat and humidity.
Thunderstorms, if they are more expansive than expected, could
throw a wrench in the plans, but as of now expect another day with
highs in the 90s and heat index values approaching 105, so have
extended the heat advisory through 8 PM Sunday.


.LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Timing of best pops related to various upper waves and surface
reflections will be the main difficulty with the long term.
However, good confidence that a mean Mississippi Valley trough,
related upper disturbances and nearby surface features will interact
with a moist and unstable atmosphere and result in thunderstorm
chances mid week through next Saturday. Regional blend reflects this
well. Lowest pops will be Tuesday night, when a stationary front is
expected to be south of the Ohio River. Look for only small chances
near and south of Terre Haute and Bloomington, then.

Thermal pattern favors near normal blend temperatures with highs in
the 80s and lows mostly in the mid and upper 60s.


.AVIATION /discussion for the 231800z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Good confidence in VFR conditions through 03z. Cu development progs
and satellite and ob trends suggests broken 4k foot ceilings through
01z. After 06z...with a moist boundary layer and mid 70s dew points,
light to calm wind and clearing skies, should see some more IFR and
worse fog at the smaller airports through 12z or so. Would not rule
out thunderstorms, but chances too low to mention through the TAF
period as a cold front will remain well northwest of the terminals.

Winds will be southwest 5 knots or less today and south and
southwest very light or calm tonight.


.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for INZ021-028>031-035>049-



AVIATION...MK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.