Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 282052
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
450 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
The Aviation section have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Low pressure over the upper midwest will move east across the northern
great lakes Sunday and trailing cold front will move across our region
late Sunday and Sunday evening.  High pressure will bring dry weather
Monday and early Tuesday.   An upper low will move towards the great
lakes by the middle of next week and a cold front will move across our
region around Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Water vapor satellite indicated plume of moisture from Mississippi and
Alabama north across our region.  Showers and thunderstorms were
beginning to develop across our region with day time heating and and
high resolution shows an increase of thunderstorms into the early
evening hour and then diminishing or ending most areas by late evening.

Will mention slight chance POPs west and chance POPS  east early this evening
and then thunderstorms ending most areas by midnight. Then a weak upper
disturbance may produce a few light showers late tonight.

Lows tonight will be in the middle 60s which is close to a MOS blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Models have trended drier towards Sunday and most models indicate little if
any precipitation.  However with a cold front moving into our region late Sunday
prefer to keep low chance POPS in mainly Sunday afternoon and far east
Sunday evening.

After that weak high pressure will bring a period of dry weather later
Sunday night through early Tuesday.  The NAM and GFS models are quicker in spreading
precip our way late Monday and Tuesday.  I believe they are too quick given
that weak high pressure will be moving east across our region along with a
weak upper ridge.  New European keeps this next area of precipitation farther
west and will lean in that direction.  To match up with other offices will add
a slight chance of thunderstorms over northwest sections late Tuesday.  Otherwise...
the rest of the short term will be dry.

Models keep 850 MB temperatures in the lower to middle teens and with more sunshine
high temperatures will be a little warmer with highs in the middle 80s.  With
mostly clear skies and light winds lows will be in the lower 60s Sunday night and
lower to middle 60s Monday night.  In most cases stayed close to a MOS blend on
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...

Issued at 159 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

ECMWF continue to keeps the warm and humid air mass in place
across central Indiana through Thursday. Thus as superblend
suggests...kept low chance pops in place during that time to
account for diurnal showers and storms.

Best chances for rain look to be on Thursday afternoon and evening
as the ECMWF shows a cold front crossing Indiana from the
northwest. With ample moisture in place ahead of the
front...precipitation seems like a good bet here.

Superblend continued to keep low chance pops in the forecast on
Friday and Saturday. The ECMWF shows the cold front southeast of
Indiana at that time...along with subsidence in place along with a
cooler and dryer air mass in place amid NW flow. Therefore we
twiddled the pop grids down 5-10% to achieve a dry forecast then.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 282100z TAFs/...

Issued at 450 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

For the update...pushed back timing of tempo thunder at KIND by an
hour based on current set of storms on radar with those to the
southwest still having some potential of holding together to hit the
airport. Lower confidence that any thunder will directly hit KIND
but not slam dunk enough to pull yet. At KLAF left the VCTS but
pulled tempo thunder with most of the action east or southeast of
there and trends indicating it will stay that way. Previous
discussion follows...

VFR conditions expected much of this taf period. Brief MVFR
conditions will be possible late this afternoon and early evening
within any TSRA that may strike a TAF site.

Rapid Refresh continues to suggest convective development...mainly
during the peak heating hours of 20Z-01z. Thus have used VCTS for
now along with a TEMPO group for thunder during this most
favorable period.

Any spots that get rain, particularly the more rural taf sites, will
be favorable for MVFR diurnal fog in the morning given the expected
lingering lower level moisture and small dew point depressions.

CU rule is negative on Sunday morning and low level moisture
lingers. Used VFR CIGS to cover this situation.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/CP


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