Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 151555 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
955 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Updated for morning discussion.


Overall a quiet and cooler afternoon can be expected as widespread
clouds & cooler thermal profiles will support a cooler than normal
afternoon. Widespread southwest flow/isentropic lift from the
closed mid-level low over northwest Mexico and south of the Great
Basin is helping bring widespread mid & high level clouds across
the region. In addition, the cold front that moved through
overnight has only continued to lock northerly flow & dry air
around to less than a half inch PWs. With strong surface ridging
moving into the southern Plains and building into our western
areas, expect northerly flow to continue into the afternoon. This
will keep us dry and chilly into the afternoon. In addition, a
thermal 925mb trough is situated along the Natchez Trace corridor
with temperatures in the low levels around 6-8 deg C at 925mb.
With widespread clouds & cooler thermal profiles, this will only
support in the lower 50s, around 8-10 degrees below normal. There
is just enough lift to our south to keep some showers along the
Gulf Coast but overall its too dry for anything to move into our
area. As the trough digs in later today & into this evening,
expect clouds to gradually clear from the northwest. Mainly just
lowered highs slightly across the area due to widespread clouds &
cool thermal profiles & kept PoPs confined out of our area to the
south along the Gulf Coast. /DC/

Prior discussion below:

Quiet weather will be in store to start the weekend, but then expect
stormier/wetter weather over the region from Sunday through early
next week.

Today through tonight:

A cool polar airmass associated with a progressive thermal trough
crossing the ArkLaMiss will combine with considerable cirrus and
northerly breezes to make for a chilly day. Abundant mid/high level
subtropical moisture is being drawn into the south central CONUS by
a cutoff low centered over the Gulf of California. This moist air
is being lifted sufficiently for widespread light rain along the
TX/LA coast. and some of this activity may manage to reach as far
north as the Highway 98 corridor in southern MS by late this
morning into early afternoon. Otherwise, expect clearing skies
tonight to allow for cold overnight lows from the mid 20s to near
30 over much of the forecast area. /EC/

Saturday through next week...

A more dynamic weather pattern will begin to take shape over the
weekend and persist well into next week. Several chances of rain and
storms will exist through the period as several disturbances
traverse the region.

A surface high centered over the SE and mid level ridging should
keep Saturday dry with temperatures around average mid December
values. Moisture will increase later in the day on Saturday and into
Sunday as the surface high progresses eastward towards the Atlantic
Coast, allowing for return flow over our region. A de-amplifying
shortwave trough embedded in the prevailing upper SW flow pattern
will bein to approach the region on Sunday. Pwats will have
increased to above 1.5" areawide on Sunday ahead of this first
disturbance. Rain chances will begin to increase from west on Sunday
morning as the front associated with this feature begins to move
into the area. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible mainly in
the southern portions of the ArkLaMiss on Sunday. The best
instability will exist south of the ArkLaMiss but impressive Bulk
shear values will exist in the region with 0-3 km bulk shear around
45-50 kts and 0-6 km Bulk shear around 50-60 kts. This could lead to
some strong storms with damaging wind gusts as the main threat. Any
over achievement in instability could further this threat. A
marginal threat of severe weather will be introduced in the HWO for
areas along and south of the US 84 corridor.

Moist air will continue to be advected into the region from the Gulf
of Mexico through mid week as more disturbances embedded within the
SW flow aloft impact the region. Chances for heavy rain/storms will
exist once again on Tuesday/Wednesday as another surface front
provides sufficient lift to the region. Rain chances will be present
each day during the upcoming week. The expected rainfall will
provide relief to our rainfall deficits and ongoing drought
conditions. Long term models are hinting at a pattern change by next
weekend. /JPM3/


12Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail across the forecast area today through
tonight. A few sprinkles could manage to reach the ground in the
HBG area, but it will be dry otherwise. /EC/


Jackson       50  27  58  47 /   1   0   2  34
Meridian      47  27  56  43 /   6   0   2  16
Vicksburg     51  27  59  46 /   1   0   2  56
Hattiesburg   49  30  57  47 /  11   3   2  16
Natchez       50  28  59  49 /   6   1   4  48
Greenville    50  31  58  44 /   1   0   1  68
Greenwood     48  29  59  42 /   1   0   1  54





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