Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 120228
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
828 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS
EVENING...BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE IN THE NORTH AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE 40S ON THEIR WAY TO LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND FREEZING IN THE
NORTH TO NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME./15/

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY DRIVING A DRY COLD FRONT
ENTIRELY THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TODAY TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN
ANTICIPATED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES AS AN EFFICIENT DRY
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME BOOSTED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. THIS
INCREASED MIXING POTENTIAL COULD RESULT IN MORE HIGHS TOPPING 70
DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PINE BELT TOMORROW...BUT ELSEWHERE
HIGHS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL FALL OFF FROM WHAT HAS BEEN THE CASE
TODAY (ALTHOUGH IN MOST AREAS IT WILL BE FAR FROM FRIGID). BY
SATURDAY A REINFORCING COLD SHOT WILL GET FUNNELED DOWN INTO THE
REGION AND BRING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS TO ALL AREAS DURING THE DAY AND
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

BUT THE GRADUALLY CHILLIER TREND WILL PUT ITS BRAKES ON SHARPLY ON
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING TOWARD THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST BUCKLES THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE MAKING IT THIS FAR
EAST. THIS BUCKLING WILL HELP KICK UP A SURFACE LOW TO OUR
WEST...WHICH SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY TRACK NORTHEAST RIGHT THROUGH THE
LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE ADVANCING
BACK NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. OVERRUNNING TYPE
PRECIP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IS MUCH MORE LIKELY TO OUR NORTH
(ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH) LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND IN THOSE
AREAS TO OUR NORTH THERE WILL BE A WINTER WEATHER CONCERN. BUT IN
OUR REGION THE THREAT FOR WINTER WEATHER IS QUITE LOW (BECAUSE IT
WILL BE TOO WARM) AND MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY. THIS IS THE POINT AT WHICH OUR REGION SHOULD FEEL THE
COMBINED IMPACT OF THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY. VERY CHILLY TEMPS WELL ALOFT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HELP PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...DESPITE QUITE TAME MOISTURE LEVELS NEAR THE SURFACE. THE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK STILL LOOKS PRETTY LOW...BUT THE PARAMETER SPACE
FORECASTS FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN
THE COMING DAYS BECAUSE SOME SLIGHT NORTHWARD TREND OF MASS FIELDS
COULD YIELD A MARGINALLY HIGHER THREAT THERE. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS EVENING WITH MOST TAF SITES
REPORTING LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MEI/HBG. SOME PATCHY FOG
AND STRATUS MAY BRING MVFR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08-09Z TO
THESE SITES. EXPECT THE FOG/STRATUS TO LIFT AFTER 15-16Z WITH ALL
SITES VFR AFTER./15/

 &&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MONDAY
EVENING...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE BUT THE SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY MORNING HELPING
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD OVER OUR CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THEN
ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       43  65  37  50 /   0   1   0   0
MERIDIAN      41  67  35  49 /   0   1   0   0
VICKSBURG     42  64  38  49 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   49  73  40  54 /   1   2   0   0
NATCHEZ       49  68  40  53 /   1   2   0   0
GREENVILLE    33  56  32  41 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     33  58  31  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/17/22


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