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209
FXUS64 KJAN 280907
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
407 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Today and tonight:

Our stretch of pleasant weather has come to an end. The large
upper trough has pushed off to the east, and the surface high also
has become centered more over the Mid-Atlantic states. This has
helped our winds switch around out of the southeast to south
today. This will help moisture filter back into the region.
Dewpoints will return to the upper 60s and lower 70s across the
ArkLaMiss. Precipitable water is forecast to increase from the
south today, as values will range from 2.1 inches in the Pine Belt
this afternoon to 1.5 inches near the Highway 82 corridor. As
temperatures warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s, and combine
with the influence of another upper trough lingering over the
northern gulf, isolated to scattered showers and storms will occur
this afternoon. These should initiate in the south and move
north. The greatest coverage should be south of I-20, and closer
to the Highway 84 corridor. Much of the convective activity will
diminish through the evening hours. Hi-res guidance indicates some
could linger into the overnight hours in the east, but thus far
have left this out of the forecast. However, additional activity
Thursday could begin rather early in the morning. Overnight lows
will be rather mild in the lower 70s. /28/

Thursday through Tuesday:

An active weather pattern is expected to continue Thursday through
at least the weekend. Primary focus will be on daytime
thunderstorm potential and a warming trend in high temperatures.
High pressure over the Southeast U.S. will gradually shift
westward over the Gulf Coast by the weekend, keeping moist
southerly flow across our region through that time. Meanwhile a
series of shortwave troughs of varying strength will move across
the northern half of the country. Afternoon temperatures are
expected to be in the upper 80s to low 90s with dewpoints in the
70s, leading to decent instability. Wind shear will be fairly
weak (0-6 km shear less than 15 kts most days), as most of the
upper-level energy staying to our north. Therefore organized
severe weather is not currently expected through early next week.
Models do indicate that drier mid-level air with steeper lapse
rates could edge into the area by the weekend, so we will continue
to monitor the potential for microbursts during that time. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail through the period at most sites. A
better chance for showers and storms will exist today,
particularly for TAF sites along and south of I-20. Have included
mention of VCTS for HBG/MEI where confidence is higher in storms
affecting the site, but left out of JAN/HKS where confidence is
lower. Storms could bring brief MVFR vis restrictions. Otherwise,
southeast winds will prevail today around 10-15kts at all TAF
sites. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       88  71  84  73 /  36  20  62  27
Meridian      87  71  83  72 /  34  20  69  34
Vicksburg     88  71  85  73 /  26  20  57  25
Hattiesburg   85  70  82  72 /  50  40  73  34
Natchez       86  71  83  73 /  43  35  63  28
Greenville    88  71  85  73 /   9   8  39  21
Greenwood     88  71  85  73 /   5  10  46  21

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

NF/28