Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 252157
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
450 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...Convection so far today has been rather sparse
overall, but scattered coverage has developed in the past several
hours over far southern and western zones. Dry air rotating in from
the east around the north side of a weak northern Gulf hybrid-type
circulation has been mostly responsible for the relative dearth of
showers and thunderstorms. But this same circulation advancing
gradually northwest through the next 24 hours will begin allowing
tropical soup to spill back north into the region (and the afternoon
showers and storms will follow north as well). Consensus model PoPs
have really caught on to the idea of this weak hybrid circulation
moving inland and risen sharply for tomorrow into Wednesday,
especially across southern zones. In those southern spots convection
may even tend to not be entirely of a diurnal nature since moisture
transport north from the Gulf will be temporarily a bit
considerable. Fortunately, at this time the very weak nature of the
circulation looks to keep shear parameters too low to worry a great
deal about hazardous weather with any thunderstorms (although a some
briefly gusty storms certainly cannot be ruled out). In addition,
locally heavy downpours are anticipated tomorrow and Wednesday
although the potential for anything more than very isolated flash
flooding issues does not warrant inclusion of flooding threat in the
HWO/graphics.

Model consensus has also firmed up on the idea that the
aforementioned low will drift into a position just west of our
region by Wednesday and transition to a subtropical ridge weakness
in that vicinity, with the weakness lasting into the coming weekend.
Previously there was some potential for this weakness to set up far
enough to our west to keep the bulk of associated rainfall to our
west or just in western zones. Now potential is greater for all
areas to receive relatively pleasant manifestations of this nearby
trough, such as somewhat cooler temps and needed rainfall. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR categories should prevail through much of the day.
Afternoon/early evening SHRA/TSRA is again ongoing but coverage is
mostly be confined to roughly KHKS/KJAN/KHBG. This could bring some
brief MVFR to IFR ceilings/vis restrictions. VFR conditions expected
outside of rain/storms. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  93  73  89 /  19  52  42  68
Meridian      74  93  72  90 /  17  49  36  58
Vicksburg     73  93  74  87 /  20  43  42  68
Hattiesburg   75  89  73  88 /  20  68  44  61
Natchez       73  90  73  86 /  23  56  42  65
Greenville    75  94  75  89 /  17  18  28  64
Greenwood     75  94  73  90 /  14  21  29  63

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

BB/28



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