Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 172118

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
318 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Tonight through Wednesday...Mid level ridging will help relax the
wind fields tonight leading to a reduction in the convective
activity. With the loss of mid level support the frontal boundary
will only ooze a little further south tonight before stalling and
then begin to back up as a warm front Wednesday. With the calming
winds, the HRRR is indicating the potential for some dense fog over
the southeast.

Cold core moving into the Plains will once again induce a mid level
southwest flow regime with an increase in isentropic ascent,
especially near the retreating warm front. Numerous showers will
move in from the west during the afternoon as this occurs. A few
thunderstorms will also be possible in the south as the warm sector

Wednesday Night through Monday:

Mild spring like anomalous conditions will continue through Sunday
with a cool down for Sunday night through Monday night. During the
period several strong storm systems will affect the region for
Thursday as well as the weekend. The stronger system will be this
weekend with the Large Hail Potential.

For Wednesday night with mid to upper ridging around we will have a
warm front to the north as a storm system approaches from the
Southern Plains. Showers and some embedded thunderstorms will be
continuing at that time. Local heavy rainfall potential is expected
to develop in the western delta late Wednesday night on the approach
of Thursday`s storm system. This will be aided by a low level gulf
inflow jet of around 35 knots.

The active southern stream will pivot a negatively tilted upper
trough from the southern plains tracking into the region for
Thursday into Thursday night. There will be enough lift, moisture
transport convergence(pwats around 1.6), instability, and deep layer
shear for some locally heavy rainfall and some severe weather risk
along with some risk of hail. For right now its looking to be a low
end severe risk. The primary risks will be locally heavy rainfall,
damaging wind gusts with a few severe storms, and a tornado will be
possible.Model guidance has from one to three inches of qpf. With
the progressive nature of this system not looking for any major heavy
rain risk. This system will exit the region by late Thurday night. So
with the dynamics of this system opted to put the whole region under
a limited risk of severe weather and possible tornado. Took out the
limited flooding risk.

There will be a lull between systems on Friday as the next stronger
system develops over the Southern Plains. This deep closed system
will move over the region for Saturday into Sunday. The primary
concern with this stronger system will be the Large Hail Potential
with such a closed cold core system. There will be multiple waves of
all modes of severe weather during the weekend period. The primary
risk of concern will be Large Hail Potential. Models have been
showing that potential for the last few days with projected hail
sizes greater than golfball. This is supported by 8c midlevel lapse
rates and vertical totals in the lower 30s. The other risks will be
Damaging Winds, and a few tornadoes. Be sure to stay tune for
updates. If the models remain consistent in future runs we will be
increasing the Threat Risk in our graphics and HWO for this system,
which has the potential of becoming a significant severe weather
event. The system is expected to exit the region by Sunday night.

Looking ahead toward the middle of the upcoming work week mild
conditions will be come back once again with a front passing
through mid week for another chance of rain./17/


18Z TAF discussion:
MVFR to VFR conditions will continue through the
afternoon. Scattered showers this afternoon will be most
concentrated along a slow moving cold front extending from KIER-K5A6-
KTUP line at 17/18Z. After 18/00Z, IFR conditions will increase as
low clouds and fog develop. LIFR conditions will develop once again
at HBG as the fog becomes locally dense./26/


Jackson       59  71  63  69 /  28  39  53  93
Meridian      60  72  61  70 /  20  25  36  89
Vicksburg     57  69  63  69 /  33  57  70  93
Hattiesburg   61  74  63  72 /  10  26  29  83
Natchez       60  72  64  70 /  27  54  65  93
Greenville    51  60  57  65 /  51  69  78  89
Greenwood     53  64  61  68 /  52  53  68  92





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