Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 310218 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
918 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.UPDATE...Isolated showers and storms continue this evening across
west and central portions of the cwa. Most activity should diminish
later this evening. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.
The only change to the current fcst was to the hourly temps this
evening to account for the latest trends. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...VCTS will be coming to an end by 31/03Z. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail through the period. VCTS will develop once
again after 31/18Z and linger through the end of the period./26/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...Convection is a bit more prevalent, though still just
isolated, across the area this afternoon. Fortunately most Memorial
Day barbecues remain uninterrupted by Mother Nature. Temps have again
soared into the 90s almost areawide, with some mid 90s noted across
East MS. Heading into the work week, the surface ridge, which has
provided generally nice weather over the holiday weekend, will
weaken as upper troughing builds over the central part of the country
heading through the week. This will slowly drag a cold front toward
the region by the end of the week into the weekend.

In the mean time, isolated/scattered afternoon convection will
fester into the early evening. Though the local microburst checklist
gave low potential for damaging wind today, instability is
sufficient for a few strong storms. This potential is not expected to
be widespread enough to warrant mention in the HWO. On Tuesday,
convection will again be largely diurnal in nature, with somewhat
greater POP in the western part of the area (closer to influence from
upstream subtropical jet max) and in the SE part of the area (where
the seabreeze may come into play). Again, there will be some
potential for strong storms, but we will hold off on any HWO mention
until there is a clearer signal for severe potential in a specific
area.

Wednesday, the upper trough will shift eastward toward the Midwest
and Great Lakes, with an increase in precip ahead of the surface
front anticipated from the ArkLaTex through the Mid MS Valley. Aside
from the diurnal convection we have seen over the past few days,
activity more directly related to the front may begin to brush the
Delta beginning Wednesday, and thus POPs will be on an upward trend
in that area continuing into Thursday. Temperatures will continue to
be above average over the next few days, though increasing
interference from clouds/precip should begin to curtail some of the
mid 90s we have seen this weekend. /DL/

Long Term (Wednesday through Saturday Night)...Models are in
agreement that the cold front will stall just northwest of our CWA
Thursday while the southern stream low moves over the Southern
Plains. The closer proximity of the low and stalled cold front will
lead to greater rain chances Thursday with the greatest rain chances
over our northwest zones. The increased rain chances and associated
cloud cover will limit insolation and result in cooler afternoon
highs. The ECMWF and GFS differ on how far south the closed low will
be with the GFS being farther south and over southern Texas Friday
and the ECMWF being over northeast Texas. The closed low is expected
to linger over Texas through the weekend while a second northern
stream closed low deepens a large upper level trough over the eastern
CONUS a second cold front looks to drop into our CWA Sunday. The
ECMWF is slower to dissipate the southern low and maintains greater
rain chances over our region through Monday while the GFS is drier,
moving the cold front south of our CWA by Monday afternoon. Cooler
than normal afternoon highs are expected Friday through Monday but
morning lows will continue at or above normal through the period.
/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  92  70  90 /  15  25  20  19
Meridian      66  94  67  91 /   9  25  18  21
Vicksburg     69  91  70  91 /  20  25  16  19
Hattiesburg   68  95  70  92 /  13  26  17  16
Natchez       68  90  68  88 /  19  21  12  16
Greenville    68  90  69  88 /  22  32  21  30
Greenwood     67  91  69  90 /  17  30  22  29

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$



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