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000
FXUS64 KJAN 280844
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
344 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROFFINESS APPEARS UNDERWAY IN WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING AS RIDGE AXIS
PULLS WEST AND FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES INCREASINGLY
NORTHWESTERLY. THIS IS ALLOWING SURFACE COLD FRONT...ALONG A
LIT/MEM/BNA LINE AT 07Z...TO BEGIN PICKING UP SOME SPEED.

WHILE EARLIER CONVECTION OVER AR HAS WANED...LATEST IR IMAGERY IS
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER N MS/S AR AND A FEW NEW CELLS TRYING TO DEVELOP NEAR
PBF/LLQ. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE WANTED TO REGENERATE
CONVECTION OVER S AR AND THE DELTA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS DURING MAX HEATING WHEN CAPES APPROACH
5000-6000 J/KG AND MID/UPPER 70 DEWPOINTS POOL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. DESPITE MEAGER VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE MID 20S...FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE SOME RATHER ROBUST
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY IN
PLACE. WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT...BELIEVE SOME OF THE STORMS IN
THE IMMEDIACY OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A DISTINCT WIND THREAT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO...BUT SPREAD AREA
FURTHER TO THE WEST.

COOL/DRY AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MINS IN THE
60S PREVALENT BY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...DECIDED TO CUT MOS A LITTLE AS LOWER 90S
LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM. WENT CLOSER TO NAM MOS MAXES.

AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL MOVING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UPSTREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT
OF THE PLAINS TOWARD OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF...CLOUD COVER WILL DEFINITELY BE
ON THE INCREASE. AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING AREAS WEST OF THE MS
RIVER TO STILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S./26/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY
AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BUT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THE MOISTURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE SHOWERS DUE TO THE DRY AIR...BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE. /SW/


&&

.AVIATION...OTHER THAN SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES UNTIL 14Z AT MEI...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH
SPARSE ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR VICINITY AT ALL TAF POINTS. THESE STORMS
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 29/00Z./26/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  63  89  63 /  18   5   2   2
MERIDIAN      94  61  90  59 /  19   5   2   2
VICKSBURG     93  61  89  63 /  17   4   2   2
HATTIESBURG   96  67  91  64 /  26  18   4   2
NATCHEZ       93  65  88  64 /  26  12   7   2
GREENVILLE    91  65  87  63 /  16   4   2   2
GREENWOOD     91  63  85  59 /  14   4   2   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$