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000
FXUS64 KJAN 052230 CCA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
427 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE WINTER STORM THAT AFFECTED THE ARKLAMISS LATE LAST NIGHT AND MUCH
OF TODAY IS OVER AND ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS HAVE ENDED. THERE ARE A
FEW REPORTS OF SLEET IN THE PINEBELT REGION BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE
STAYED ABOVE FREEZING AND NO TRAVEL ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THERE AS
THE PRECIPITATION ENDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVIER ICE/SLEET...WE HAVE BEEN CONCERNED ABOUT ISSUES WITH
REFREEZING FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
WELL INTO THE 20S AND TEENS. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MOST OF THE AREA
AND THIS IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING AS DRY
NORTHERLY WINDS HELP TO DRY OFF THE ROADS. WHILE REFREEZING MAY OCCUR
IN SOME LOCATIONS...IT IS NOT QUITE AS BIG OF A CONCERN AS IT WAS
EARLIER...ESPECIALLY ON THE WELL-TRAVELED ROADS.

ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE BEING TEMPERATURES
AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA. SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS OVER-DOING COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH ICE COVER TONIGHT AND
THIS IS MAKING FOR A LOW-CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DID NOT
WANT TO GO NEARLY AS LOW AS HRRR WHICH HAS SINGLE DIGIT READINGS IN
QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT DO BELIEVE TEENS WILL BE COMMON
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. EXPECT
MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE WELL
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT NIGHTTIME
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND. HAVE CUT
CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT BUT NOT TOO MUCH AS
THERE COULD BE A BIT OF CIRRUS THAT DISRUPTS COOLING. /EC/

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WETTER PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE AS WE
GO INTO NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE
EURO..GFS...AND GEM MODELS HAD SOME DIFFERENCES WITH AREA PRECIP
COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST ONE WILL BRING
SOME RAIN TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A LITTLE
STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
AS HIGHS GOES FROM THE 50S TO THE 60S. THIS WILL BRING AFTERNOON
HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY THE TIME WE GET
TO THURSDAY IT WILL BE SPRING LIKE WITH HIGHS PUSHING TOWARD THE 70
DEGREE MARK IN THE SOUTH. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO THE 50S BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...

SKIES ARE RAPIDLY CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR FLIGHT STATUSES WILL EXIST AT
SITES WHERE CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THIS
EVENING...AND VFR STATUSES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE TEENS AND 20S...ANY RESIDUAL OR STANDING WATER ON AIRCRAFT...
RUNWAYS...TARMACS...AND RAMPS WILL FREEZE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AND GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 7-10 KNOTS. /19/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       21  44  25  58 /   0   0   0   6
MERIDIAN      21  46  21  59 /   2   0   0   5
VICKSBURG     20  44  23  55 /   0   0   0   6
HATTIESBURG   24  51  25  63 /   9   0   0   7
NATCHEZ       21  44  24  58 /   0   0   0   8
GREENVILLE    18  38  23  51 /   0   0   0   4
GREENWOOD     17  41  21  54 /   0   0   0   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

EC/17/19/