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000
FXUS64 KJAN 180126 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
826 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...MAIN FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO THIS EVENINGS WX AS
PRECIP IS HAVING A HARD TIME DEVELOPING OR MAKING INTO THE CWA. DUE
TO THIS POPS/WX WERE LOWERED AND PUSHED BACK IN TIME. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...INCREASING DEEP LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM OUR SE
LOOKS TO SUPPORT A RAIN SHIELD SKIRTING THE CWA AND BRINGING AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP TO THE SE PART OF THE CWA. I WANT
TO ADD THAT THEIR REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE LARGE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COULD KEEP MOISTURE CUT OFF. IF THIS
OCCURS...THEN GETTING ANY PRECIP ANYWHERE LATER TONIGHT MAY BE A
REAL CHALLENGE. OVERALL...PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED A BIT FOR
CENTRAL...W/NW/N LOCATIONS. HOURLY TEMPS WERE MODIFIED QUITE A BIT
THIS EVENING AS A SLOWER TEMP FALL IS OCCURRING DUE TO CLOUDS/WIND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE STILL GENERALLY ON TRACK. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT
OVC CEILINGS ARE PRESENT WITH HEIGHTS >5 OR 10KFT. LOOK FOR CEILINGS
TO LOWER AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS THE SE AND E-CENTRAL
AREAS THEN SPREADING ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE. PRECIP
WILL BE LIMITED FOR THIS EVENING...BUT A MORE EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF
-RA IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE AREAS LATER. LOOK FOR IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 16-19Z FRI. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH EASTER SUNDAY)...

RAINS ARE PUSHING ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN LA THIS AFTERNOON OUT
AHEAD OF A S/WV TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES
THE REGION TONIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP
OUT OVER THE GULF PASSING WELL THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FA TONIGHT.
STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL ALLOW RAINS TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THIS EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
12Z MODEL RUNS CAME IN A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST
RAINS...ALTHOUGH IT STILL APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL JUST TO
OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST. STILL...WE COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACH AN
INCH ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR COME TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD
CAUSE SOME BRIEF RISES OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT
ARE STILL HIGH FROM RECENT RAINFALL. DO NOT FEEL THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THIS AFTERNOONS HWO AND WILL
KEEP IT CLEAR. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME INSTABILITY INCREASES UNDER THE UPPER LOW. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH HEADED INTO TOMORROW EVE.

S/WV RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION STARTING FRI NIGHT
ALLOWING DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTER
WEEKEND. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S...
WHICH IS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NEXT CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN COMES ON MONDAY. /BK/

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

MAIN ACTIVE PERIOD WILL START MONDAY AFTN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN AS A
ONCE PHASED NRN/SRN STREAM H5 S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
DECOUPLES OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WHILE PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 1.3-1.5".
COMBINATION OF WEAK QG LIFT FROM SRN BRANCH SPLIT OVERTOP SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS /500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE/ MON AFTN SHOULD HELP
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
AREAS OF THE ARKLAMISS. INSTABILITY WILL WANE INTO THE EVENING BUT
WITH MID LEVEL FORCING LINGERING, SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY /750-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ WILL
RETURN WITH DIABATIC HEATING TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY
AS THE POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST INTO AL. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE OF GENERAL TSTORMS TUES
AFTN BUT SHEAR/VERTICAL TOTALS LOOK MEAGER AT BEST TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE ROBUST AT THIS TIME. ALSO, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT LIKELY WITH THIS SET-UP AND WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SWOLLEN
RIVERS TO FALL. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO MID NEXT WEEK. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       55  71  48  77 /  33  36   2   1
MERIDIAN      53  68  43  77 /  75  64   7   0
VICKSBURG     54  71  51  78 /  23  34   1   2
HATTIESBURG   55  70  49  79 /  78  42   7   3
NATCHEZ       54  70  51  76 /  20  22   7   3
GREENVILLE    54  73  51  77 /  20  32   1   2
GREENWOOD     53  72  48  77 /  23  32   2   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/BK/ALLEN/