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000
FXUS64 KJAN 080302 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
902 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.UPDATE...
NOT MUCH TO UPDATE TONIGHT THANKS TO CALM CONDITIONS ALL AROUND.
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS A BIT BUT THAT WAS ALL. PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH
SUNRISE. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH A STEADY STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES
TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
REDUCING SOME VISIBILITIES TO MVFR STATUS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...BUT
THESE WILL QUICKLY RECOVER WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM...THEN
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 4-7 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...

A WELCOME WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS WARM/SOUTHERLY
FLOW OFF THE GULF COMMENCES TONIGHT UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE TOMORROW COUPLED WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO CLIMB NEAR 70 BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT LIMPS INTO THE REGION. PW VALUES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CLIMB JUST ABOVE 1 INCH...BUT WITH A LACK OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE PRETTY
LIMITED WITH THIS ACTIVITY/GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES BEFORE QUIET CONDITIONS RETURN SUN AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. TEMPS
SUN AFTERNOON LOOK LIKE THEY`LL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 60S
DUE TO COMBINATION OF COOL ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER...BUT ELSEWHERE
READINGS SHOULD REACH THE LOW 70S. 12Z MAV TEMPS LOOKED GOOD WITH
LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS MADE. POPS WERE LOWERED A BIT FOR SUN GIVEN
TAPERING RAIN CHANCES AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DIMINISHES. /BK/

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

CUT-OFF ENERGY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS RIO GRAND INTO THE GULF NEXT
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE A NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL ROTATE INTO THE
CENTRAL WRN BASIN, LIKELY ABLE TO PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION DURING WED. THE DETAILS AND EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES
WILL DETERMINE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS THAT WILL BE REFINED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THAT NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. EC IS AGGRESSIVE IN KICKING OUT MID-LVL LOW OVER REGION INTO
TUES AND THUS IS HIGH ON POPS. HAVE TAPERED POPS TOWARDS MEN VALUES
TUES WITH GFS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH SUPPORT FROM GEM AND GEFS. A
NICE WARM UP WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FIRST HALF OF WEEK WITH TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S ALL LOCATIONS WITH H925 TEMPS 12-16C.

THE TUES-THURSDAY TIME FRAME WILL PRESENT THE MOST CHALLENGES WITH
PRECIP CHANCES BUT DESPITE THE DISAGREEMENTS IN OVERALL
PATTERN/FLOW, GFS/EC/GEM HAVE DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME WEDNESDAY
WITH AT LEAST INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. AT THIS POINT, AT LEAST H925
TEMPS OF 0-4C LOOK TO INFILTRATE THE REGION THURS-FRI REDUCING HIGH
TEMPS BY 15-20 DEGREE FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK AND LOWS DROPPING
BACK INTO THE 30S. DROPPED MEX TEMPS SUBSTANTIALLY FOR HIGHS THURS
AND SOMEWHAT FRI MRNG. STAY TUNED AS FORECAST EVOLVES FOR THIS TIME
FRAME AS MULTIPLE POSSIBLE COLDER SCENARIOS COULD OCCUR IF SOLUTIONS
TREND TOWARD AN EC POSSIBILITY. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       42  70  47  70 /   0   2  23  20
MERIDIAN      39  69  46  71 /   0   2  16  20
VICKSBURG     42  69  48  68 /   0   3  30  20
HATTIESBURG   43  71  49  73 /   0   5  14  20
NATCHEZ       44  66  50  69 /   0   3  28  20
GREENVILLE    42  66  47  61 /   0   6  47  20
GREENWOOD     40  68  47  66 /   0   3  32  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$