Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 231434 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
934 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
LOOKING AT THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS...IT APPEARS THAT THE DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT AROUND 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. IT ALSO
APPEARS THAT THE STORMS WILL EXPAND A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THEREFORE...POPS WERE RAISED ALONG AND WEST OF
I-55. OVERALL THE FORECAST GRIDS LOOK PRETTY GOOD AND NOTHING ELSE
NEEDS TO BE CHANGED AT THIS TIME. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL LINGERING THIS MORNING OVER HBG...BUT
SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING AS MIXING INCREASES FROM CONVECTION MOVING INTO
THAT AREA FROM THE COAST. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON...INCREASED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY EASILY AND BRIEFLY
DROP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OVER MEI...HBG... HKS AND JAN.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON./26/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PUMP MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE AREA. THERE WERE A
FEW ECHOES ON THE RADAR FROM LAST NIGHT...EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING. MODEL OUTPUT KEEPS RAIN IN THE
EAST FOR THE MOST PART...SO EXPANDED THE AREA EARLY A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST....GENERALLY TO CAPTURE THE I-55 CORRIDOR BEFORE 18Z. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG/SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL PW VALUES WERE SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2 INCHES
AGAIN AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY AND A WEAK CAP AROUND 850. MAY SEE A FEW MORE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY...SO LEFT THE HWO CLEAR. BEEN GENERALLY GOING WITH MOS
GUIDANCE...KEPT HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 TODAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL MISS THE AREA...BUT A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH STORMS TODAY AND
TOMORROW ALSO.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION REMAINS WEDGED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES...
WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES.  THIS`LL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF RAIN-FREE DAYS AT A
TIME...FOLLOWED BY A DAY OR TWO OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRIES TO PUSH A FRONT SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT NOW RESIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA.  SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SUBTLY RETURN TO THE CWA AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.  THIS THEN LOOKS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF DAYS
OF QUITE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH SOME MORE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION AT THAT
TIME.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...FOR THE MOST PART I STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOWS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...
I DID ADJUST HIGHS DOWN A BIT HERE AND THERE EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  BOTH DAYS...I LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD AS I FELT UPPER 90S WERE TOO HIGH.  MUCH OF THIS
STEMS FROM JUST THE PATTERN IN GENERAL WE`RE CURRENTLY OBSERVING AND
THE AFFECTS OF RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA KEEPING A HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SOIL AND VEGETATION OVER THE AREA.  AS A
RESULT... HIGHS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  71  91  68 /  37  19  20   9
MERIDIAN      91  70  91  68 /  33  20  26   9
VICKSBURG     92  69  92  64 /  30  15  16   8
HATTIESBURG   91  70  92  70 /  39  19  27  12
NATCHEZ       90  70  92  70 /  36  17  17   7
GREENVILLE    92  72  90  65 /  20  15  11   6
GREENWOOD     92  71  89  64 /  25  17  15   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




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