Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 292035
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
435 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 336 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

The models are in good agreement with cyclonic flow aloft and
continuing to suppress the upper level ridging to the south. This
will interact with the nearby boundary to bring chances of storms
through the short term period. This afternoon WSR-88D showing
showers and thunderstorms are moving east mostly across areas
along and south of the Mountain Parkway. Some of these storms will
bring locally heavy rain and gusty winds. These storms are
expected to spread east into the early evening hours. HRRR has a
decent handle on the main area of precip across the southern half
of the CWA. Therefore blended pops in that direction given the
reasonable timing. It does look like much of the convection will
be diurnally driven, but given the pattern keep isolated pops
through the night. Another issue that remains in question tonight
will be fog and how much we see. Right now will go with at least
patchy fog in the valleys but cloud cover could help mitigate some
locales.

Then another stormy day on tap for Saturday, as higher PWATS
remain in place and quasi stationary boundary remains near. Right
now once again going scattered coverage in the afternoon hours.
Not really favoring any certain model at this point and went
toward a blend approach at this point given the scattered
coverage. Once again expecting more in the way of diurnally driven
activity and therefore lessen the coverage once again on Saturday
evening. Temperatures through the short term period will run near
normal.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 435 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

The models are in fairly good agreement aloft through the extended
portion of the forecast. They all depict a retreat of the Great
Lakes trough through the start of next week while strong mid level
ridging reloads over the southern plains and east through the Deep
South/Tennessee Valley. As this happens, though, plenty of energy
will drift through the Ohio Valley from Sunday through Monday
before higher heights shunt it all off to the northeast,
temporarily. After this, the ridge does retreat to the southwest
a tad and subsequently allow for more ridge riding energy packets
to potentially target eastern Kentucky from Wednesday through
Friday, most clearly evident in the latest ECMWF. Given the
general agreement, a model blend looks to be a reasonable place to
start for gridded forecast purposes.

Sensible weather will feature rounds of mainly diurnally enhanced
showers and thunderstorms through Monday. Heat will gradually
rebuild through the area for the start of the week with some 90
degree readings anticipated for the latter part of the forecast.
However, the worst of this round of heat will likely be tempered
by scattered convection from Wednesday to Friday. It looks like
the lowest PoPs will be from Monday night through Wednesday
morning as the core of the ridge is closest to our area and SFC
high pressure builds in briefly from the northeast.

For the CR initialization: made some minor changes to MinT and
hourly T each night with some terrain differences anticipated due
to radiational cooling in the valleys. Did make some mainly
diurnal adjustments to PoPs through the forecast period, as well.
The rest came in real good.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

There is a mix of VFR and MVFR to start the period. WSR-88D radar
shows that showers and storms have expended across the region as
expected. This will make TAFs difficult given the scattered nature
and uncertainty attached. Right now will add a TEMPO group to
SME/LOZ where activity will be more prevalent. The storms will be
mostly diurnally driven and we should see activity wane by this
evening. Then we will see potential for fog/stratus issues
overnight into the AM hours once again. The question is to what
extent given cloud cover and therefore kept most MVFR. Did opt to
go lower at SME/LOZ where more storm activity is expected. Light
winds will be the story, but any storm could produce a brief
higher gust.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ



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