Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 031957
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DOMINATING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM...BESIDES SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO CONTEND
WITH ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL AFFECT AREAS
MAINLY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. STILL...GIVEN THE GRADUAL MOISTURE
BUILD UP THROUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO CONTEND WITH DURING MAINLY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT LIKELY ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO A TOUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY
MID 60S...WITH A FEW LOWER 60S OCCURRING IN THE MORE SHELTERED
LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH A LITTLE HIGHER HUMIDITY.
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AT AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
TO CONTEND WITH ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER STILL FRIDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES COME UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AND ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION...AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING
NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY. A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT STRETCHING
FROM THE MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS
ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE
80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE START OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID 60S FOR MINS
EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE TYPE
FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS LARGE SCALE WEATHER SYSTEMS.
CONSEQUENTLY OUR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY. THE MODEL DATA THEN
SUGGESTS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWESTWARD FOR A TIME. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS
ARE TRYING TO BRING A FAIRLY WELL DEVELOPED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING A DECENT RAIN EVENT TO EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT UPCOMING MODEL
RUNS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THIS BEFORE WE CAN SET
ANYTHING IN STONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH 06Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN TRACK...WHICH WOULD LIKELY YIELD
SOME TEMPORARY MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH OR VCTS EAST OF I-75.
CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF TOWARDS THIS EVENING...WITH FOG BECOMING
THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN. HAVE MIRRORED VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS THAT WERE SEEN THIS MORNING AT THE TAF SITES...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS LIKELY GOING DOWN HARD FOR A TIME BETWEEN 08
AND 12Z ONCE AGAIN. FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z...WITH A
REPEAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION THREATENING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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