Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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276
FXUS63 KJKL 271941
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
341 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Hot and muggy weather will continue across eastern Kentucky
through the weekend, as the ridge of high pressure that is
currently parked over the Ohio, Tennessee, and mid Mississippi
valley regions, continues to exert some influence on the region. A
few showers and thunderstorms have formed this afternoon in the
humid and unstable air mass that is in place. These should remain
confined to an area generally along and west of the I-75 corridor.
A few showers and storms will also be present along and north of
the western end of the Mountain Parkway in our forecast area
through sunset this evening. Any showers and storms that form
today should dissipate quickly once the sun goes down. Another
round of showers and storms is expected on Sunday, as the
aforementioned ridge weakens and allows height falls to occur over
the region. The persistently warm and humid air mass will still be
in place, however, and with the ridge weakening, conditions will
be bit more favorable for shower and storm formation on Sunday.
That being said, still only went with 20-40 percent chance of rain
across the area on Sunday, with the best time for rain being
during the afternoon and evening hours. The rain should taper off
Sunday night, with only a few showers or storms ongoing along and
north of I-64 by early Monday morning.

Temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will be very warm and
uncomfortable yet again, with min readings around 70 expected.
Highs on Sunday should easily reach 90 or slightly above for the
entire area once again.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

The period is expected to begin with a general area of ridging
with the axis from the Ohio Valley east to near Bermuda. A
shortwave trough is expected to be moving into the Maritimes and
Northeast CONUS at that time, with a stronger trough extending
toward the Northern Plains from a closed low moving through the
Canadian Plains. A weakness in the ridging is expected to develop
along the Eastern Seaboard by Monday night with upper ridging
becoming centered east of Bermuda and over the Mid MS Valley
Region. The Canadian closed low should progress east across
Ontario and into Quebec through midweek and as this system begins
to merge with another closed low to the Northeast and the center
of the Upper ridge retrogrades into the Plains, a trough will
begin to be carved out over Eastern Canada and into the Great
Lakes and Northeast. This should send a cold front across the
area Wed night and Thursday. Surface high pressure building
across the Great Lakes should then usher in a cooler and drier
airmass.

Another shortwave should move through the Eastern Canada and
Northeast CONUS Thursday into Friday. The axis of this trough
should begin to move east of the area by Thursday night and
Friday. Height rises are expected to begin across the Southeast
CONUS by the end of the period, with some model to model and run
to run difference in timing of individual waves. Overall, a
gradual warming trend should begin around the end of the period.

Monday and Tuesday should average out the warmest days of the
period, with upper 80s to lower 90s common outside of the highest
terrain. Then a reprieve from the recent heat and humidity should
follow through the rest of the period with near normal to a couple
of degrees below normal highs. Dewpoints should fall sufficiently
so that under the influence of high pressure some valley lows may
reach the upper 50s for Thu night and Fri night.

A few locations may be able to break the cap on Monday and or
Tuesday, but with the ridge dominating and little if any mid level
support, coverage should be minimal. Then some height falls and
an approaching shortwave and cold front should lead to at least
isolated coverage on Wednesday. Enough moisture may linger across
the southeastern part of the area for isolated diurnally driven
convection on Thursday, then as the drier airmass becomes more
entrenched dry weather should follow in all areas for Thursday
night and Friday. Uncertainty remains at the end of the period and
as moisture begins to increase, the cap may be able to be broken
in a few locations on Saturday for a few stray showers or
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through around 5Z
tonight, with mostly clear skies and light winds also on tap. More
fog is expected to begin forming between 6 and 8Z for most of the
area. Due to dry air mixing down to the surface this afternoon,
the fog should not be quite as extensive tonight, with less dense
fog expected as well. The best time for fog will be between 8 and
12Z tomorrow, with the most extensive fog expected at SME and SJS.
Mostly MVFR conditions will be expected, with a few spots perhaps
seeing IFR conditions in the worst of the fog. Any fog that does
form should be gone by between 13 and 14Z on Sunday. Isolated
showers and storms will also be possible today along and south of
the Hal Rogers Parkway. The coverage should be minimal enough to
make mention of thunder in the TAFs unwarranted at this time.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR



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